A generalized fuzzy linguistic model for predicting component concentrations in an optical gas sensing system

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NO_x, SO₂ etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

Factors affecting the prognosis of Albanian adult patients with generalized tetanus

Background. Despite systematic vaccination of the population, tetanus continues to be a health problem in Albania, as in some other developing countries. In this study, our intent was to evaluate prognostic factors relating to death in adult patients with generalized tetanus. Methodology and patients. All the patients (60) included in the study were hospitalized at the regional hospitals of Shkodra and Korça, and the University Hospital Centre “Mother Theresa” of Tirana, Albania, during the period of 1984-2004. They had a mean age of 49.1+14.4 years, 43 (71.7%) were males and 40 (66.6%) of them lived in rural areas. The mean incubation period was 12 days and the case-fatality rate (CFR) was 38.3%. Results. The CFR in patients with an onset period ≥2 days was 21.7% and in those with <2 days was 48.6%, OR=0.29 (p<0.05). Patients >50 years old had a CFR=60.87% (OR=7, p<0.05). We found the high CFR to be significantly associated with urban residency, male gender, complicated wound, head localization, fever ≥ 38.4 °C, tachycardia > 120 beats/min, and hypertension. Discussion. The main prognostic factor of those analyzed in our study appeared to be the onset period and the age of the patients. We didn’t find significant differences in CFR in patients with different incubation periods. Clinicians must take into account that wound complication and localization, tachycardia and hypertension, high fever, male gender and urban residency significantly influence the prognoses of adults with generalized tetanus.

A generalized model for population dynamics where interactions change over time

La dinámica demográfica ha sido modelada con ecuaciones diferenciales desde que Malthus comenzó sus estudios hace más de doscientos años atrás. Los modelos convencionales siempre tratan relaciones entre especies como estáticas, denotando sólo su dependencia durante un período fijo del tiempo, aunque sea conocido que las relaciones entre especies pueden cambiar con el tiempo. Aquí proponemos un modelo para la dinámica demográfica que incorpora la evolución con el tiempo de las interacciones entre especies. Este modelo incluye una amplia gama de interacciones, de depredador-presa a las relaciones mutualistas, ya sea obligada o facultativa. El mecanismo que describimos permite la transición de una clase de relación entre especies a algún otro, según algunos parámetros externos fijados por el contexto. Estas transiciones podrían evitar la extinción de una de las especies, si esto termina por depender demasiado del ambiente o su relación con las otras especies.

A new construction of Calabi–Yau manifolds: Generalized CICYs

We present a generalization of the complete intersection in products of projective space (CICY) construction of Calabi–Yau manifolds. CICY three-folds and four-folds have been studied extensively in the physics literature. Their utility stems from the fact that they can be simply described in terms of a ‘configuration matrix’, a matrix of integers from which many of the details of the geometries can be easily extracted. The generalization we present is to allow negative integers in the configuration matrices which were previously taken to have positive semi-definite entries. This broadening of the complete intersection construction leads to a larger class of Calabi–Yau manifolds than that considered in previous work, which nevertheless enjoys much of the same degree of calculational control. These new Calabi–Yau manifolds are complete intersections in (not necessarily Fano) ambient spaces with an effective anticanonical class. We find examples with topology distinct from any that has appeared in the literature to date. The new manifolds thus obtained have many interesting features. For example, they can have smaller Hodge numbers than ordinary CICYs and lead to many examples with elliptic and K3-fibration structures relevant to F-theory and string dualities.

A Generalized Methodology to Characterize Composite Materials for Pyrolysis Models

The predictive capabilities of computational fire models have improved in recent years such that models have become an integral part of many research efforts. Models improve the understanding of the fire risk of materials and may decrease the number of expensive experiments required to assess the fire hazard of a specific material or designed space. A critical component of a predictive fire model is the pyrolysis sub-model that provides a mathematical representation of the rate of gaseous fuel production from condensed phase fuels given a heat flux incident to the material surface. The modern, comprehensive pyrolysis sub-models that are common today require the definition of many model parameters to accurately represent the physical description of materials that are ubiquitous in the built environment. Coupled with the increase in the number of parameters required to accurately represent the pyrolysis of materials is the increasing prevalence in the built environment of engineered composite materials that have never been measured or modeled. The motivation behind this project is to develop a systematic, generalized methodology to determine the requisite parameters to generate pyrolysis models with predictive capabilities for layered composite materials that are common in industrial and commercial applications. This methodology has been applied to four common composites in this work that exhibit a range of material structures and component materials. The methodology utilizes a multi-scale experimental approach in which each test is designed to isolate and determine a specific subset of the parameters required to define a material in the model. Data collected in simultaneous thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the reaction kinetics, thermodynamic properties, and energetics of decomposition for each component of the composite. Data collected in microscale combustion calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the heats of complete combustion of the volatiles produced in each reaction. Inverse analyses were conducted on sample temperature data collected in bench-scale tests to determine the thermal transport parameters of each component through degradation. Simulations of quasi-one-dimensional bench-scale gasification tests generated from the resultant models using the ThermaKin modeling environment were compared to experimental data to independently validate the models.

Generalized cluster states based on finite groups

We define generalized cluster states based on finite group algebras in analogy to the generalization of the toric code to the Kitaev quantum double models. We do this by showing a general correspondence between systems with CSS structure and finite group algebras, and applying this to the cluster states to derive their generalization. We then investigate properties of these states including their projected entangled pair state representations, global symmetries, and relationship to the Kitaev quantum double models. We also discuss possible applications of these states.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

The generating function of the generalized Fibonacci sequence

Using tools of the theory of orthogonal polynomials we obtain the generating function of the generalized Fibonacci sequence established by Petronilho for a sequence of real or complex numbers {Qn} defined by Q0 = 0, Q1 = 1, Qm = ajQm−1 + bjQm−2, m ≡ j (mod k), where k ≥ 3 is a fixed integer, and a0, a1, . . . , ak−1, b0, b1, . . . , bk−1 are 2k given real or complex numbers, with bj #0 for 0 ≤ j ≤ k−1. For this sequence some convergence proprieties are obtained.

Generalized hydrodynamics of a (1+1)-dimensional integrable scattering theory with roaming trajectories

The emergence of hydrodynamic features in off-equilibrium (1 + 1)-dimensional integrable quantum systems has been the object of increasing attention in recent years. In this Master Thesis, we combine Thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz (TBA) techniques for finite-temperature quantum field theories with the Generalized Hydrodynamics (GHD) picture to provide a theoretical and numerical analysis of Zamolodchikov’s staircase model both at thermal equilibrium and in inhomogeneous generalized Gibbs ensembles. The staircase model is a diagonal (1 + 1)-dimensional integrable scattering theory with the remarkable property of roaming between infinitely many critical points when moving along a renormalization group trajectory. Namely, the finite-temperature dimensionless ground-state energy of the system approaches the central charges of all the minimal unitary conformal field theories (CFTs) M_p as the temperature varies. Within the GHD framework we develop a detailed study of the staircase model’s hydrodynamics and compare its quite surprising features to those displayed by a class of non-diagonal massless models flowing between adjacent points in the M_p series. Finally, employing both TBA and GHD techniques, we generalize to higher-spin local and quasi-local conserved charges the results obtained by B. Doyon and D. Bernard [1] for the steady-state energy current in off-equilibrium conformal field theories.

Delays In Receiving Obstetric Care And Poor Maternal Outcomes: Results From A National Multicentre Cross-sectional Study.

The vast majority of maternal deaths in low-and middle-income countries are preventable. Delay in obtaining access to appropriate health care is a fairly common problem which can be improved. The objective of this study was to explore the association between delay in providing obstetric health care and severe maternal morbidity/death. This was a multicentre cross-sectional study, involving 27 referral obstetric facilities in all Brazilian regions between 2009 and 2010. All women admitted to the hospital with a pregnancy-related cause were screened, searching for potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC), maternal death (MD) and maternal near-miss (MNM) cases, according to the WHO criteria. Data on delays were collected by medical chart review and interview with the medical staff. The prevalence of the three different types of delays was estimated according to the level of care and outcome of the complication. For factors associated with any delay, the PR and 95%CI controlled for cluster design were estimated. A total of 82,144 live births were screened, with 9,555 PLTC, MNM or MD cases prospectively identified. Overall, any type of delay was observed in 53.8% of cases; delay related to user factors was observed in 10.2%, 34.6% of delays were related to health service accessibility and 25.7% were related to quality of medical care. The occurrence of any delay was associated with increasing severity of maternal outcome: 52% in PLTC, 68.4% in MNM and 84.1% in MD. Although this was not a population-based study and the results could not be generalized, there was a very clear and significant association between frequency of delay and severity of outcome, suggesting that timely and proper management are related to survival.

Genetic Predictors Of Long-term Response To Growth Hormone (gh) Therapy In Children With Gh Deficiency And Turner Syndrome: The Influence Of A Socs2 Polymorphism.

There is great interindividual variability in the response to GH therapy. Ascertaining genetic factors can improve the accuracy of growth response predictions. Suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS)-2 is an intracellular negative regulator of GH receptor (GHR) signaling. The objective of the study was to assess the influence of a SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) and its interactive effect with GHR exon 3 and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (rs2854744) polymorphisms on adult height of patients treated with recombinant human GH (rhGH). Genotypes were correlated with adult height data of 65 Turner syndrome (TS) and 47 GH deficiency (GHD) patients treated with rhGH, by multiple linear regressions. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction was used to evaluate gene-gene interactions. Baseline clinical data were indistinguishable among patients with different genotypes. Adult height SD scores of patients with at least one SOCS2 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs3782415-C were 0.7 higher than those homozygous for the T allele (P < .001). SOCS2 (P = .003), GHR-exon 3 (P= .016) and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (P = .013) polymorphisms, together with clinical factors accounted for 58% of the variability in adult height and 82% of the total height SD score gain. Patients harboring any two negative genotypes in these three different loci (homozygosity for SOCS2 T allele; the GHR exon 3 full-length allele and/or the -202C-IGFBP3 allele) were more likely to achieve an adult height at the lower quartile (odds ratio of 13.3; 95% confidence interval of 3.2-54.2, P = .0001). The SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) has an influence on the adult height of children with TS and GHD after long-term rhGH therapy. Polymorphisms located in GHR, IGFBP3, and SOCS2 loci have an influence on the growth outcomes of TS and GHD patients treated with rhGH. The use of these genetic markers could identify among rhGH-treated patients those who are genetically predisposed to have less favorable outcomes.

Compartment Syndrome After South American Rattlesnake (crotalus Durissus Terrificus) Envenomation.

In order to report the outcome of a patient who developed compartment syndrome after South American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus terrificus) envenomation, confirmed by subfascial pressure measurement and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). A 63-year-old male was admitted 1 h after being bitten on the right elbow by a large snake, which was not brought for identification. Physical and laboratory features upon admission revealed two fang marks, local tense swelling, paresthesia, intense local pain, hypertension, coagulopathy, and CK = 1530 U/L (RV < 170 U/L). The case was initially treated with bothropic antivenom (80 mL, intravenously), with no improvement. Evolution within 13-14 h post-bite revealed generalized myalgia, muscle weakness, palpebral ptosis, and severe rhabdomyolysis (CK = 126,160 U/L) compatible with envenoming by C. d. terrificus. The patient was then treated with crotalic antivenom (200 mL, intravenously), fluid replacement, and urine alkalinization. Twenty-four-hour post-bite MRI showed marked muscular edema in the anterior compartment of the right forearm, with a high subfascial pressure (40 mmHg) being detected 1 h later. ELISA of a blood sample obtained upon admission, before antivenom infusion, revealed a high serum concentration of C. d. terrificus venom. No fasciotomy was performed and the patient was discharged seven days later without sequelae. Snakebite by C. d. terrificus with subfascial venom injection may lead to increased intracompartmental pressure.