Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000)and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the Dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub -groups are explored, such as gender and age-related differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders.

Network Analysis Reveals Sex- and Antibiotic Resistance-Associated Antivirulence Targets in Clinical Uropathogens.

Increasing antibiotic resistance among uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) is driving interest in therapeutic targeting of nonconserved virulence factor (VF) genes. The ability to formulate efficacious combinations of antivirulence agents requires an improved understanding of how UPEC deploy these genes. To identify clinically relevant VF combinations, we applied contemporary network analysis and biclustering algorithms to VF profiles from a large, previously characterized inpatient clinical cohort. These mathematical approaches identified four stereotypical VF combinations with distinctive relationships to antibiotic resistance and patient sex that are independent of traditional phylogenetic grouping. Targeting resistance- or sex-associated VFs based upon these contemporary mathematical approaches may facilitate individualized anti-infective therapies and identify synergistic VF combinations in bacterial pathogens.

Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000) and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub-groups are explored, such as gender and agerelated differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders. References: Bundesamt für Polizei. (2015). Jahresbericht 2014. Kriminalitätsbekämpfung Bund. Lage, Massnahmen und Mittel [Electronic Version]. Drury, J., & Reicher, S. (2000). Collective action and psychological change. The emergence of new social identities. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 579-604. Hylander, I., & Guvå, G. (2010). Misunderstanding of out-group behaviour: Different interpretations of the same crowd events among police officers and demonstrators. Nordic Psychology, 62, 25-47. Schumacher-Dimech, A., Brechbühl, A. &, Seiler, R. (2016). Dynamics of critical incidents with potentially violent outcomes involving ultra fans: an explorative study. Sport in Society. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/17430437.2015.1133597

Preservice Teacher Preparation in Meeting the Needs of Gifted and Other Academically Diverse Students

The issue of how to respond to the diverse academic needs of students is one of the central challenges of teaching. This project studied how preservice teachers develop an awareness of the needs of academically diverse learners and how they intend to implement and/or modify instruction to meet those needs. Participants all came from one university. As part of the design of the study, the participants were surveyed to investigate (a) their attitudes and beliefs towards academically diverse learners; (b) the teaching practices they would utilize in response to academic diversity in their classrooms; and (c) the confidence they have in their abilities to identify and address these various needs in their classrooms. Several strategies including activities to enhance creativity, cooperative learning, individual instruction, problem-solving activities, and projects were considered noteworthy for the ratings by the preservice teachers as appropriate for all students. Small differences were found based on the preservice teachers' year of placement in the School of Education, indicating that as students progress through this program, they may learn more about different techniques and when and for whom they are appropriate; however, differences across groups were not statistically significant. Results also indicated that across the different years in the program, preservice teachers did not have very high or very low confidence in addressing these issues in their own classrooms. Each grouping fell around the middle level of confidence.

An examination of the Gonorrhea Cases & Places study: An analysis of the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory as it relates to risky sexual behavior in African American adults

Objective. The purpose of the study is to provide a holistic depiction of behavioral & environmental factors contributing to risky sexual behaviors among predominantly high school educated, low-income African Americans residing in urban areas of Houston, TX utilizing the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory. ^ Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted via questionnaires among 215 Houston area residents, 149 were women and 66 were male. Measures used to assess behaviors of the population included a history of homelessness, use of crack/cocaine among several other illicit drugs, the type of sexual partner, age of participant, age of most recent sex partner, whether or not participants sought health care in the last 12 months, knowledge of partner's other sexual activities, symptoms of depression, and places where partner's were met. In an effort to determine risk of sexual encounters, a risk index employing the variables used to assess condom use was created categorizing sexual encounters as unsafe or safe. ^ Results. Variables meeting the significance level of p<.15 for the bivariate analysis of each theory were entered into a binary logistic regression analysis. The block for each theory was significant, suggesting that the grouping assignments of each variable by theory were significantly associated with unsafe sexual behaviors. Within the regression analysis, variables such as sex for drugs/money, low income, and crack use demonstrated an effect size of ≥±1, indicating that these variables had a significant effect on unsafe sexual behavioral practices. ^ Conclusions. Variables assessing behavior and environment demonstrated a significant effect when categorized by relation to designated theories. ^

Determinants of CD4 cell count decline after treatment interruption

Patients who had started HAART (Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Treatment) under previous aggressive DHHS guidelines (1997) underwent a life-long continuous HAART that was associated with many short term as well as long term complications. Many interventions attempted to reduce those complications including intermittent treatment also called pulse therapy. Many studies were done to study the determinants of rate of fall in CD4 count after interruption as this data would help guide treatment interruptions. The data set used here was a part of a cohort study taking place at the Johns Hopkins AIDS service since January 1984, in which the data were collected both prospectively and retrospectively. The patients in this data set consisted of 47 patients receiving via pulse therapy with the aim of reducing the long-term complications. ^ The aim of this project was to study the impact of virologic and immunologic factors on the rate of CD4 loss after treatment interruption. The exposure variables under investigation included CD4 cell count and viral load at treatment initiation. The rates of change of CD4 cell count after treatment interruption was estimated from observed data using advanced longitudinal data analysis methods (i.e., linear mixed model). Using random effects accounted for repeated measures of CD4 per person after treatment interruption. The regression coefficient estimates from the model was then used to produce subject specific rates of CD4 change accounting for group trends in change. The exposure variables of interest were age, race, and gender, CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels at HAART initiation. ^ The rate of fall of CD4 count did not depend on CD4 cell count or viral load at initiation of treatment. Thus these factors may not be used to determine who can have a chance of successful treatment interruption. CD4 and viral load were again studied by t-tests and ANOVA test after grouping based on medians and quartiles to see any difference in means of rate of CD4 fall after interruption. There was no significant difference between the groups suggesting that there was no association between rate of fall of CD4 after treatment interruption and above mentioned exposure variables. ^

RELATION OF TYPE OF REPORTED ILLNESSES TO PATTERN OF USE OF THE STUDENT HEALTH CENTER BY THE INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS AT TEXAS SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY, HOUSTON, TEXAS

The state of knowledge on the relation of stress factors, health problems and health service utilization among university students is limited. Special problems of stress exist for the international students due to their having to adjust to a new environment. It is this latter problem area that provides the focus for this study. Recognizing there are special stress factors affecting the international students, it is first necessary to see if the problems of cultural adaptation affect them to any greater degree than American students attending the same university.^ To make the comparison, the study identified a number of health problems of both American and international students and related their frequency to the use of the Student Health Center. The expectation was that there would be an association between the number of health problems and the number of life change events experienced by these students and between the number of health problems and stresses from social factors. It was also expected that the number of health problems would decline with the amount of social support.^ The population chosen were students newly enrolled in Texas Southern University, Houston, Texas in the Fall Semester of 1979. Two groups were selected at random: 126 international and 126 American students. The survey instrument was a self-administered questionnaire. The response rate was 90% (114) for the international and 94% (118) for the American students.^ Data analyses consisted of both descriptive and inferential statistics. Chi-squares and correlation coefficients were the statistics used in comparing the international students and the American students.^ There was a weak association between the number of health problems and the number of life change events, as reported by both the international and the American students. The study failed to show any statistically significant association between the number of stress from social factors and the number of health problems. It also failed to show an association between the number of health problems and the amount of social support. These findings applied to both the international and the American students.^ One unexpected finding was that certain health problems were reported by more American than international students. There were: cough, diarrhea, and trouble in sleeping. Another finding was that those students with health insurance had a higher level of utilization of the Health Center than those without health insurance. More international than American students utilized the Student Health Center.^ In comparing the women students, there was no statistical significant difference in their reported fertility related health problems.^ The investigator recommends that in follow-up studies, instead of grouping all international students together, that they be divided by major nationalities represented in the student body; that is, Iranians, Nigerians and others. ^

A STUDY OF INFLUENZA AND OF STATISTICAL METHODS USED TO REPORT INFLUENZA

This paper defines and compares several models for describing excess influenza pneumonia mortality in Houston. First, the methodology used by the Center for Disease Control is examined and several variations of this methodology are studied. All of the models examined emphasize the difficulty of omitting epidemic weeks.^ In an attempt to find a better method of describing expected and epidemic mortality, time series methods are examined. Grouping in four-week periods, truncating the data series to adjust epidemic periods, and seasonally-adjusting the series y(,t), by:^ (DIAGRAM, TABLE OR GRAPHIC OMITTED...PLEASE SEE DAI)^ is the best method examined. This new series w(,t) is stationary and a moving average model MA(1) gives a good fit for forecasting influenza and pneumonia mortality in Houston.^ Influenza morbidity, other causes of death, sex, race, age, climate variables, environmental factors, and school absenteeism are all examined in terms of their relationship to influenza and pneumonia mortality. Both influenza morbidity and ischemic heart disease mortality show a very high relationship that remains when seasonal trends are removed from the data. However, when jointly modeling the three series it is obvious that the simple time series MA(1) model of truncated, seasonally-adjusted four-week data gives a better forecast.^

THE LOGIC OF NOMINAL RECORD LINKAGE WITH A CASE STUDY FROM LAREDO, TEXAS

The Laredo Epidemiology Project is a study of the patterns of degenerative disease, particularly cancer, in the families of Laredo, Texas. The genealogical history of Laredo was reconstructed by the grouping of 350,000 individual church and civil vital event records into multi-generational families, with record linkage based on matching names. Mortality data from death records are mapped onto these pedigrees for analysis. This dissertation describes the construction of the data base and the logic upon which decisions were based. ^

Robust effect sizes and their confidence intervals for group difference between trajectories in hierarchical linear growth model

Hierarchical linear growth model (HLGM), as a flexible and powerful analytic method, has played an increased important role in psychology, public health and medical sciences in recent decades. Mostly, researchers who conduct HLGM are interested in the treatment effect on individual trajectories, which can be indicated by the cross-level interaction effects. However, the statistical hypothesis test for the effect of cross-level interaction in HLGM only show us whether there is a significant group difference in the average rate of change, rate of acceleration or higher polynomial effect; it fails to convey information about the magnitude of the difference between the group trajectories at specific time point. Thus, reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been increased emphases in HLGM in recent years, due to the limitations and increased criticisms for statistical hypothesis testing. However, most researchers fail to report these model-implied effect sizes for group trajectories comparison and their corresponding confidence intervals in HLGM analysis, since lack of appropriate and standard functions to estimate effect sizes associated with the model-implied difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM, and also lack of computing packages in the popular statistical software to automatically calculate them. ^ The present project is the first to establish the appropriate computing functions to assess the standard difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM. We proposed the two functions to estimate effect sizes on model-based grouping trajectories difference at specific time, we also suggested the robust effect sizes to reduce the bias of estimated effect sizes. Then, we applied the proposed functions to estimate the population effect sizes (d ) and robust effect sizes (du) on the cross-level interaction in HLGM by using the three simulated datasets, and also we compared the three methods of constructing confidence intervals around d and du recommended the best one for application. At the end, we constructed 95% confidence intervals with the suitable method for the effect sizes what we obtained with the three simulated datasets. ^ The effect sizes between grouping trajectories for the three simulated longitudinal datasets indicated that even though the statistical hypothesis test shows no significant difference between grouping trajectories, effect sizes between these grouping trajectories can still be large at some time points. Therefore, effect sizes between grouping trajectories in HLGM analysis provide us additional and meaningful information to assess group effect on individual trajectories. In addition, we also compared the three methods to construct 95% confident intervals around corresponding effect sizes in this project, which handled with the uncertainty of effect sizes to population parameter. We suggested the noncentral t-distribution based method when the assumptions held, and the bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated method when the assumptions are not met.^

Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

Una metodología diferente para el estudio de un nuevo curriculum. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, UNCuyo.

Este trabajo se realizó en el contexto del Plan de estudios que la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias (UNCuyo) implementó a partir de 1994 para las carreras de Ingeniería Agronómica y Licenciatura en Bromatología. Se calcularon algunos indicadores educativos (Tasa de Aprobación, Tasa de Deserción, Tasa de Recursado y Tasa de Permanencia) con el objeto de efectuar un seguimiento en la aplicación de dicho Plan de estudios, a través de una nueva metología. Para el análisis de los datos se utilizaron cuatro métodos: "Determinación de distancias entre matrices y sus respectivos valores ideales", que permitió elaborar un índice de lejanía del sistema en su conjunto; "Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP)" seguido de un "Análisis de Conglomerados (AC)", que permitieron agrupar las materias de acuerdo con sus similitudes. Finalmente, se realizó un "Análisis Discriminante", que permitió concluir que las tasas calculadas no establecen diferencias entre las asignaturas de los ciclos Básico e Instrumental (únicamente en el caso de Ingeniería Agronómica).

Mejora de la gestión del agua de riego mediante el uso de indicadores de riego

La gestión del agua de riego en la zona regable del Genil-Cabra, situada en la provincia de Córdoba, sur de España, se ha estudiado usando tres indicadores de riego: el Suministro Relativo de Agua de Riego (RIS); el Suministro Relativo de Agua (RWS) y el Suministro Relativo de Agua por Precipitaciones (RRS). Estos tres indicadores se han calculado tanto de forma global como agrupando los datos según el tipo de cultivo, el método de riego, la textura del suelo y el tamaño de la parcela. Toda la información relativa a variables agronómicas e hidráulicas se ha incluido en un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) para facilitar su manejo. Los resultados muestran que los riegos son deficitarios ya que el valor del indicador RIS es relativamente bajo. No obstante, dado que el indicador RWS alcanza valores más altos, la demanda evaporativa puede ser satisfecha a lo largo del ciclo de desarrollo del cultivo. El indicador RRS oscila menos y junto al RWS permite conocer la fracción de evapotranspiración cubierta por el agua de lluvia. Los valores medios de los indicadores calculados son muy útiles para conocer el comportamiento del regante y la tendencia general, aunque la muestra usada es aún insuficiente para poder caracterizar una gran área de riego en su conjunto.

Caries de la infancia temprana, demanda de atención odontológica y percepción parental de salud bucal en pre-escolares de riesgo social del Gran Mendoza

La caries de la infancia temprana es un problema de salud pública que afecta con mayor agresividad a preescolares en riesgo social. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue establecer las asociaciones existentes entre estado dental, demanda de atención odontológica, percepción de salud bucal y condición socio-económica en niños preescolares del Gran Mendoza. Material y método: la población estuvo constituida por escolares en una muestra intencionada de 155 niños de nivel inicial residentes en la provincia de Mendoza, pertenecientes al ámbito escolar urbano- marginal. Se registraron los siguientes índices: ceod, CPOD, ceos, CPOS, y sus componentes discriminados, ICDAS II, íNTC (Bordoni, 1998) e índice de placa (Silness y Löe, 1967). Fue aplicado un cuestionario de percepción parental de salud bucal (ECOHIS) y se realizaron encuestas estructuradas sobre tipología de la demanda de atención odontológica y de condiciones socioeconómicas (NBI). Fue determinada la distribución de frecuencias y los intervalos de confianza para cada variable, las medidas de tendencia central y dispersión y se realizaron comparaciones entre grupos mediante la prueba de chi cuadrado con p=0.05. Resultados: 85.8% de la muestra presentó experiencia de caries. Para cada indicador se registraron los siguientes valores: ceod+CPOD= 5.716 +/- 4.08; cd+CD =5,39+3.79; ed+PD= 0.25+- 0.72; y od+OD= 0.08+-0.34; ceos+CPOS=8.89+-8.39; cs+CS=7.63+-6.25; es+PS= 1.23+-3.62; y os+OS= 0.12+0.46; IP= 1.04+-0.48; y INTC=5.65+-3.19. No se observaron diferencias significativas al agrupar los niños por sexo. Al analizar la demanda de atención bucal se observó que el 54,9% efectuó una consulta odontológica, 25% en el último año y 74% en el subsistema de salud pública. El análisis del cuestionario ECOHIS reveló que obtuvo el máximo porcentaje de respuestas cuando se ordenó según la categoría nunca. El único ítem que se relacionó con el estado dental en forma estadísticamente significativa fue el dolor. Conclusiones: Se observa alta prevalencia de caries dental sin que la demanda de atención odontológica haya producido impacto positivo sobre el estado dentario ni sobre la percepción de los padres respecto de la salud bucal.

Contribución al estudio de la biología floral de la vid en Mendoza

Como contribución al estudio de la biología floral de la vid en Mendoza, se han efectuado observaciones morfológicas y fisiológicas. En base a los resultados obtenidos se ha hecho una clasificación práctica agrupando las variedades estudiadas en 6 tipos florales. Se propone el mejoramiento de las variedades de fecundación imperfecta por medio de la selección clonal. Los seis tipos florales son los siguientes: 1º) Flores estaminadas, funcionalmente masculinas, con pistilos atrofiados. 2º) Flores pistiladas, funcionalmente femeninas, con estambres cortos y espiralados. 3º) Flores funcionalmente femeninas, pero ocasionalmente hermafroditas funcionales. 4º) Flores hermafroditas funcionales, imperfectas con estambres finos, más cortos que los normales y en algunos casos ligeramente espiralados. 5º) Flores hermafroditas funcionalmente perfectas, con estambres y pistilos normales. 6º) Flores hermafroditas con pistilo y óvulo defectuosos, dan origen a frutos partenocárpicos o estenospermocárpicos.