805 resultados para GRANGER CAUSALITY


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Mode of access: Internet.

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Indexed in Granger's Index to poetry and recitations.

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Appendices: (A) The origins of the great war, by H. N. Brailsford.--(B) Britain and the war; a study in diplomacy, by C. H. Norman.--(C) Why we are at war; a reply to Sir Edward Grey, by Sir R. MacDonald.--(D) Secret diplomacy the cause of war; an appeal to the British people, by E. D. Morel.--(E) Letter by Baron L'Escaille, Belgian minister at St. Petersburg, to M. Davignon, Belgian minister of foreign affairs.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Bibliography: p. [318]-324.

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This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth.

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In an earlier note, Collins and Tisdell (2002b) explored the possibility of a long-run relationship between Australian business returns and international business travel. Using annual data they found that such a relationship exists. The purpose of this study is to further examine this relationship using quarterly data for the time frame 1974:1 to 1999:4. In addition, previous studies on international business travel have offered some but not strong evidence for the existence of a positive relationship between the level of international business travel and real GDP of the origin country. This study suggests that the aggregate return on business investments is a better predictor of international business travel than GDP. The Engle-Granger and Johansen's maximum-likelihood cointegration procedures are used to show a long-term relationship exists between Australian outbound business travel and Australian business returns, but not with Real Australian GDP. Reasons for this relationship are discussed.

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A theoretical model was developed to investigate the relationships among subordinate-manager gender combinations, perceived leadership style, experienced frustration and optimism, organization-based self-esteem and organizational commitment. The model was tested within the context of a probabilistic structural model, a discrete Bayesian network, using cross-sectional data from a global pharmaceutical company. The Bayesian network allowed forward inference to assess the relative influence of gender combination and leadership style on the emotions, self-esteem and commitment consequence variables. Further, diagnostics from backward inference were used to assess the relative influence of variables antecedent to organizational commitment. The results showed that gender combination was independent of leadership style and had a direct impact on subordinates' levels of frustration and optimism. Female manager-female subordinate had the largest probability of optimism, while male manager teamed with a male subordinate had the largest probability of frustration. Furthermore, having a female manager teamed up with a male subordinate resulted in the lowest possibility of frustration. However, the findings show that the gender issue is not simply female managers versus male managers, but is concerned with the interaction of the subordinate-manager gender combination and leadership style in a nonlinear manner. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The Euro has been used as the largest weighting element in a basket of currencies for forex arrangements adopted by several Central European countries outside the European Union (EU). The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. It employs Zero-no-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction (VECM) modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate