Efficacy and Safety of Ticagrelor for Long-term Secondary Prevention of Atherothrombotic Events in Relation to Renal Function: Insights from the PEGASUS TIMI-54 trial

Aims: We evaluated the relationship of renal function and ischaemic and bleeding risk as well as the efficacy and safety of the P2Y12 platelet receptor inhibitor ticagrelor in stable patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI). Methods & Results: Patients with a history of MI 1-3 years prior from the Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin (PEGASUS)-TIMI 54 were stratified based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with<60 ml/min/1.73m2 prespecified for analysis of the effect of ticagrelor on the primary efficacy composite of cardiovascular death, MI, or stroke (MACE) and the primary safety endpoint of TIMI major bleeding. Of 20,898 patients, those with eGFR<60 (N=4,849, 23.2%) had a greater risk of MACE at 3 years relative to those without, which remained significant after multivariable adjustment (HRadj 1.54, 95% CI 1.27–1.85, p<0.001). The relative risk reduction in MACE with ticagrelor was similar in those with eGFR<60 (ticagrelor pooled vs. placebo: HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.68–0.96) vs. ≥60 (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.77–1.00, pinteraction=0.44). However, due to the greater absolute risk in the former group, the absolute risk reduction with ticagrelor was higher: 2.7% vs. 0.63%. Bleeding tended to occur more frequently in patients with renal dysfunction. The absolute increase in TIMI major bleeding with ticagrelor was similar in those with and without eGFR<60 (1.19% vs. 1.43%), whereas the excess of minor bleeding tended to be more pronounced (1.93% vs. 0.69%). Conclusion: In patients with a history of MI, patients with renal dysfunction are at increased risk of MACE and consequently experience a particularly robust absolute risk reduction with long-term treatment with ticagrelor.

Handling and communicating uncertainty in chained geospatial web services

Recent developments in service-oriented and distributed computing have created exciting opportunities for the integration of models in service chains to create the Model Web. This offers the potential for orchestrating web data and processing services, in complex chains; a flexible approach which exploits the increased access to products and tools, and the scalability offered by the Web. However, the uncertainty inherent in data and models must be quantified and communicated in an interoperable way, in order for its effects to be effectively assessed as errors propagate through complex automated model chains. We describe a proposed set of tools for handling, characterizing and communicating uncertainty in this context, and show how they can be used to 'uncertainty- enable' Web Services in a model chain. An example implementation is presented, which combines environmental and publicly-contributed data to produce estimates of sea-level air pressure, with estimates of uncertainty which incorporate the effects of model approximation as well as the uncertainty inherent in the observational and derived data.

An expert system for the development of a health and safety policy/risk assessment in the plastics industry

Health and safety policies may be regarded as the cornerstone for positive prevention of occupational accidents and diseases. The Health and Safety at Work, etc Act 1974 makes it a legal duty for employers to prepare and revise a written statement of a general policy with respect to the health and safety at work of employees as well as the organisation and arrangements for carrying out that policy. Despite their importance and the legal equipment to prepare them, health and safety policies have been found, in a large number of plastics processing companies (particularly small companies), to be poorly prepared, inadequately implemented and monitored. An important cause of these inadequacies is the lack of necessary health and safety knowledge and expertise to prepare, implement and monitor policies. One possible way of remedying this problem is to investigate the feasibility of using computers to develop expert system programs to simulate the health and safety (HS) experts' task of preparing the policies and assisting companies implement and monitor them. Such programs use artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to solve this sort of problems which are heuristic in nature and require symbolic reasoning. Expert systems have been used successfully in a variety of fields such as medicine and engineering. An important phase in the feasibility of development of such systems is the engineering of knowledge which consists of identifying the knowledge required, eliciting, structuring and representing it in an appropriate computer programming language.