On the structure and dynamics of Indian monsoon depressions

ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the past 35 years have been used with a newly-developed feature tracking algorithm to identify Indian monsoon depressions originating in or near the Bay of Bengal. These were then rotated, centralised and combined to give a fully three-dimensional 106-depression composite structure – a considerably larger sample than any previous detailed study on monsoon depressions and their structure. Many known features of depression structure are confirmed, particularly the existence of a maximum to the southwest of the centre in rainfall and other fields, and a westward axial tilt in others. Additionally, the depressions are found to have significant asymmetry due to the presence of the Himalayas; a bimodal mid-tropospheric potential vorticity core; a separation into thermally cold- (~–1.5K) and neutral- (~0K) cores near the surface with distinct properties; and that the centre has very large CAPE and very small CIN. Variability as a function of background state has also been explored, with land/coast/sea, diurnal, ENSO, active/break and Indian Ocean Dipole contrasts considered. Depressions are found to be markedly stronger during the active phase of the monsoon, as well as during La Niña. Depressions on land are shown to be more intense and more tightly constrained to the central axis. A detailed schematic diagram of a vertical cross-section through a composite depression is also presented, showing its inherent asymmetric structure.

A comparison between ion characteristics observed by the POLAR and DMSP spacecraft in the high-latitude magnetosphere

We study here the injection and transport of ions in the convection-dominated region of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The total ion counts from the CAMMICE MICS instrument aboard the POLAR spacecraft are used to generate occurrence probability distributions of magnetospheric ion populations. MICS ion spectra are characterised by both the peak in the differential energy flux, and the average energy of ions striking the detector. The former permits a comparison with the Stubbs et al. (2001) survey of He2+ ions of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere. The latter can address the occurrences of various classifications of precipitating particle fluxes observed in the topside ionosphere by DMSP satellites (Newell and Meng, 1992). The peak energy occurrences are consistent with our earlier work, including the dawn-dusk asymmetry with enhanced occurrences on the dawn flank at low energies, switching to the dusk flank at higher energies. The differences in the ion energies observed in these two studies can be explained by drift orbit effects and acceleration processes at the magnetopause, and in the tail current sheet. Near noon at average ion energies of _1 keV, the cusp and open LLBL occur further poleward here than in the Newell and Meng survey, probably due to convectionrelated time-of-flight effects. An important new result is that the pre-noon bias previously observed in the LLBL is most likely due to the component of this population on closed field lines, formed largely by low energy ions drifting earthward from the tail. There is no evidence here of mass and momentum transfer from the solar wind to the LLBL by nonreconnection coupling. At higher energies (_2–20 keV), we observe ions mapping to the auroral oval and can distinguish between the boundary and central plasma sheets. We show that ions at these energies relate to a transition from dawnward to duskward dominated flow, this is evidence of how ion drift orbits in the tail influence the location and behaviour of the plasma populations in the magnetosphere.

Ionospheric convection response to slow, strong variations in a northward interplanetary magnetic field: A case study for January 14, 1988

We analyze ionospheric convection patterns over the polar regions during the passage of an interplanetary magnetic cloud on January 14, 1988, when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated slowly in direction and had a large amplitude. Using the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure, we combine simultaneous observations of ionospheric drifts and magnetic perturbations from many different instruments into consistent patterns of high-latitude electrodynamics, focusing on the period of northward IMF. By combining satellite data with ground-based observations, we have generated one of the most comprehensive data sets yet assembled and used it to produce convection maps for both hemispheres. We present evidence that a lobe convection cell was embedded within normal merging convection during a period when the IMF By and Bz components were large and positive. As the IMF became predominantly northward, a strong reversed convection pattern (afternoon-to-morning potential drop of around 100 kV) appeared in the southern (summer) polar cap, while convection in the northern (winter) hemisphere became weak and disordered with a dawn-to-dusk potential drop of the order of 30 kV. These patterns persisted for about 3 hours, until the IMF rotated significantly toward the west. We interpret this behavior in terms of a recently proposed merging model for northward IMF under solstice conditions, for which lobe field lines from the hemisphere tilted toward the Sun (summer hemisphere) drape over the dayside magnetosphere, producing reverse convection in the summer hemisphere and impeding direct contact between the solar wind and field lines connected to the winter polar cap. The positive IMF Bx component present at this time could have contributed to the observed hemispheric asymmetry. Reverse convection in the summer hemisphere broke down rapidly after the ratio |By/Bz| exceeded unity, while convection in the winter hemisphere strengthened. A dominant dawn-to-dusk potential drop was established in both hemispheres when the magnitude of By exceeded that of Bz, with potential drops of the order of 100 kV, even while Bz remained northward. The later transition to southward Bz produced a gradual intensification of the convection, but a greater qualitative change occurred at the transition through |By/Bz| = 1 than at the transition through Bz = 0. The various convection patterns we derive under northward IMF conditions illustrate all possibilities previously discussed in the literature: nearly single-cell and multicell, distorted and symmetric, ordered and unordered, and sunward and antisunward.

Dependence of convective flows and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere on theXandYcomponents of the interplanetary magnetic field

The asymmetries in the convective flows, current systems, and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere which are related to the equatorial plane components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are discussed in relation to the results of several recent observational studies. It is argued that all of the effects reported to date which are ascribed to the y component of the IMF can be understood, at least qualitatively, in terms of a simple theoretical picture in which the effects result from the stresses exerted on the magnetosphere consequent on the interconnection of terrestrial and interplanetary fields. In particular, relaxation under the action of these stresses allows, in effect, a partial penetration of the IMF into the magnetospheric cavity, such that the sense of the expected asymmetry effects on closed field lines can be understood, to zeroth order, in terms of the “dipole plus uniform field” model. In particular, in response to IMF By, the dayside cusp should be displaced in longitude about noon in the same sense as By in the northern hemisphere, and in the opposite sense to By in the southern hemisphere, while simultaneously the auroral oval as a whole should be shifted in the dawn-dusk direction in the opposite sense with respect to By. These expected displacements are found to be consistent with recently published observations. Similar considerations lead to the suggestion that the auroral oval may also undergo displacements in the noon-midnight direction which are associated with the x component of the IMF. We show that a previously published study of the position of the auroral oval contains strong initial evidence for the existence of this effect. However, recent results on variations in the latitude of the cusp are more ambiguous. This topic therefore requires further study before definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Interhemispheric dynamics of the African rainbelt during the late Quaternary

The spatial pattern of precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical Africa over the late Quaternary has long been debated. Prevailing hypotheses variously infer (1) insolation-controlled asymmetry of wet phases between hemispheres, (2) symmetric contraction and expansion of the tropical rainbelt, and (3) independent control on moisture available in Southern Africa via sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. In this study we use climate-model simulations covering the last glacial cycle (120 kyr) with HadCM3 and the multi-model ensembles from PMIP3 (the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project) to investigate the long-term behaviour of the African rainbelt, and test these simulations against existing empirical palaeohydrological records. Through regional model-data comparisons we find evidence for the validity of several hypotheses, with various proposed processes occurring concurrently but with different regional emphasis (e.g. asymmetric shifts at the seasonal extremes and symmetric expansions/ contractions towards West equatorial regions). Crucially, variations in rainfall are associated with multiple forcing mechanisms that vary in their dominance both spatially and temporally over the glacial cycle; an important consideration when interpreting and extrapolating from often relatively short palaeoenvironmental records.

The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

The solsticial pause on Mars: 2 modelling and investigation of causes

The martian solsticial pause, presented in a companion paper (Lewis et al., this issue), was investigated further through a series of model runs using the UK version of the LMD/UK Mars Global Climate Model. It was found that the pause could not be adequately reproduced if radiatively active water ice clouds were omitted from the model. When clouds were used, along with a realistic time-dependent dust opacity distribution, a substantial minimum in near-surface transient eddy activity formed around solstice in both hemispheres. The net effect of the clouds in the model is, by altering the thermal structure of the atmosphere, to decrease the vertical shear of the westerly jet near the surface around solstice, and thus reduce baroclinic growth rates. A similar effect was seen under conditions of large dust loading, implying that northern midlatitude eddy activity will tend to become suppressed after a period of intense flushing storm formation around the northern cap edge. Suppression of baroclinic eddy generation by the barotropic component of the flow and via diabatic eddy dissipation were also investigated as possible mechanisms leading to the formation of the solsticial pause but were found not to make major contributions. Zonal variations in topography were found to be important, as their presence results in weakened transient eddies around winter solstice in both hemispheres, through modification of the near-surface flow. The zonal topographic asymmetry appears to be the primary reason for the weakness of eddy activity in the southern hemisphere relative to the northern hemisphere, and the ultimate cause of the solsticial pause in both hemispheres. The meridional topographic gradient was found to exert a much weaker influence on near-surface transient eddies.

Earth hummocks in north-east Okstindan, northern Norway: morphology, distribution and environmental constraints

Earth hummocks (also termed pounus or thúfur) are a common form of periglacial non-sorted patterned ground. The study objectives were to determine the morphology, distribution and development on slopes of earth hummocks in north-east Okstindan, Norway, an area with many hummocks but few documented accounts. The methodology involved detailed geomorphological mapping and precise measurement with a profileometer. The internal structure of the hummocks was investigated through excavations and sediment sample analyses. Fourteen sites with well-developed earth hummocks (accounting for over 650 individual hummock forms) were investigated. The sites have an average altitude of 750 m and occur on slopes with an average gradient of 7°. The hummock heights are in the range 0.11–0.52 m and their diameters 0.7–1.5 m, although coalescent forms are up to 5 m in length. The hummock morphology is characterised by a variable plan form, asymmetry with respect to upslope and downslope forms, downslope elongation, coalescence, and superimposed microtopography. The hummocks’ distribution appeared to have been controlled by the existence of a frost-susceptible ‘host’ sediment, but moisture availability and topographic position played a role. The authors conclude that differential frost heave and vegetation cover stability are critical for the hummocks’ longevity in the studied landscape.

The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet

We study the effect of a thermal forcing confined to the midlatitudes of one hemisphere on the eddy-driven jet in the opposite hemisphere. We demonstrate the existence of an “interhemispheric teleconnection,” whereby warming (cooling) the Northern Hemisphere causes both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Southern Hemispheric midlatitude jet to shift northward (southward). The interhemispheric teleconnection is effected by a change in the asymmetry of the Hadley cells: as the ITCZ shifts away from the Equator, the cross-equatorial Hadley cell intensifies, fluxing more momentum toward the subtropics and sustaining a stronger subtropical jet. Changes in subtropical jet strength, in turn, alter the propagation of extratropical waves into the tropics, affecting eddy momentum fluxes and the eddy-driven westerlies. The relevance of this mechanism is demonstrated in the context of future climate change simulations, where shifts of the ITCZ are significantly related to shifts of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet in austral winter. The possible relevance of the proposed mechanism to paleoclimates is discussed, particularly with regard to theories of ice age terminations.

Environmental agreements as a Hawk-Dove game with confirmed proposals

This paper aims at two different contributions to the literature on international environmental agreements. First, we model environmental agreements as a generic situation, characterized as a Hawk-Dove game with multiple asymmetric equilibria. Second, the article applies the theory on non-cooperative games with confirmed proposals, based on an alternating proposals bargaining protocol, as a way of overcoming the usual problems of coordination and bargaining failures in environmental agreement games, due to payoff asymmetry and equilibrium multiplicity.

The option market reaction to bank loan announcements

In this study, we examine the options market reaction to bank loan announcements for the population of US firms with traded options and loan announcements during 1996-2010. We get evidence on a significant options market reaction to bank loan announcements in terms of levels and changes in short-term implied volatility and its term structure, and observe significant decreases in short-term implied volatility, and significant increases in the slope of its term structure as a result of loan announcements. Our findings appear to be more pronounced for firms with more information asymmetry, lower credit ratings and loans with longer maturities and higher spreads. Evidence is consistent with loan announcements providing reassurance for investors in the short-term, however, over longer time horizons, the increase in the TSIV slope indicates that investors become increasingly unsure over the potential risks of loan repayment or uses of the proceeds.

Simulating decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

Observations and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG), though observations are sparse and models disagree on the details of this variability. Therefore, it is important to understand 1) the mechanisms of simulated decadal variability, 2) which parts of simulated variability are more faithful representations of reality, and 3) the implications for climate predictions. Here, we investigate the decadal variability in the NA SPG in the state-of-the-art, high resolution (0.25◦ ocean resolution), climate model ‘HadGEM3’. We find a decadal mode with a period of 17 years that explains 30% of the annual variance in related indices. The mode arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies, and shows asymmetries in the timescale of phase reversal between positive and negative phases. A negative feedback from temperature-driven density anomalies in the Labrador Sea (LS) allows for the phase reversal. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exhibits the same periodicity, amplifies the mode. The atmosphere-ocean coupling is stronger during positive rather than negative NAO states, explaining the asymmetry. Within the NA SPG, there is potential predictability arising partly from this mode for up to 5 years. There are important similarities between observed and simulated variability, such as the apparent role for the propagation of heat content anomalies. However, observations suggest interannual LS density anomalies are salinity-driven. Salinity control of density would change the temperature feedback to the south, possibly limiting real-world predictive skill in the southern NA SPG with this model. Finally, to understand the diversity of behaviours, we analyse 42 present-generation climate models. Temperature and salinity biases are found to systematically influence the driver of density variability in the LS. Resolution is a good predictor of the biases. The dependence of variability on the background state has important implications for decadal predictions.

Using laboratory and field measurements to constrain a single habit shortwave optical parameterization for cirrus

A single habit parameterization for the shortwave optical properties of cirrus is presented. The parameterization utilizes a hollow particle geometry, with stepped internal cavities as identified in laboratory and field studies. This particular habit was chosen as both experimental and theoretical results show that the particle exhibits lower asymmetry parameters when compared to solid crystals of the same aspect ratio. The aspect ratio of the particle was varied as a function of maximum dimension, D, in order to adhere to the same physical relationships assumed in the microphysical scheme in a configuration of the Met Office atmosphere-only global model, concerning particle mass, size and effective density. Single scattering properties were then computed using T-Matrix, Ray Tracing with Diffraction on Facets (RTDF) and Ray Tracing (RT) for small, medium, and large size parameters respectively. The scattering properties were integrated over 28 particle size distributions as used in the microphysical scheme. The fits were then parameterized as simple functions of Ice Water Content (IWC) for 6 shortwave bands. The parameterization was implemented into the GA6 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model along with the current operational long-wave parameterization. The GA6 configuration is used to simulate the annual twenty-year short-wave (SW) fluxes at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and also the temperature and humidity structure of the atmosphere. The parameterization presented here is compared against the current operational model and a more recent habit mixture model.

3-D volume rendering maxillofacial analysis of angular measurements by multislice CT

Objective. This study was designed to determine the precision and accuracy of angular measurements using three-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT) volume rendering by computer systems. Study design. The study population consisted of 28 dried skulls that were scanned with a 64-row multislice CT, and 3D-CT images were generated. Angular measurements, (n = 6) based upon conventional craniometric anatomical landmarks (n = 9), were identified independently in 3D-CT images by 2 radiologists, twice each, and were then performed by 3D-CT imaging. Subsequently, physical measurements were made by a third examiner using a Beyond Crysta-C9168 series 900 device. Results. The results demonstrated no statistically significant difference between interexaminer and intraexaminer analysis. The mean difference between the physical and 3-D-based angular measurements was -1.18% and -0.89%, respectively, for both examiners, demonstrating high accuracy. Conclusion. Maxillofacial analysis of angular measurements using 3D-CT volume rendering by 64-row multislice CT is established and can be used for orthodontic and dentofacial orthopedic applications.

Auriculo-condylar syndrome: mapping of a first locus and evidence for genetic heterogeneity

Auriculo-condylar syndrome (ACS), an autosomal dominant disorder of first and second pharyngeal arches, is characterized by malformed ears (`question mark ears`), prominent cheeks, microstomia, abnormal temporomandibular joint, and mandibular condyle hypoplasia. Penetrance seems to be complete, but there is high inter-and intra-familial phenotypic variation, with no evidence of genetic heterogeneity. We herein describe a new multigeneration family with 11 affected individuals (F1), in whom we confirm intra-familial clinical variability. Facial asymmetry, a clinical feature not highlighted in other ACS reports, was highly prevalent among the patients reported here. The gene responsible for ACS is still unknown and its identification will certainly contribute to the understanding of human craniofacial development. No chromosomal rearrangements have been associated with ACS, thus mapping and positional cloning is the best approach to identify this disease gene. To map the ACS gene, we conducted linkage analysis in two large ACS families, F1 and F2 (F2; reported elsewhere). Through segregation analysis, we first excluded three known loci associated with disorders of first and second pharyngeal arches (Treacher Collins syndrome, oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum, and Townes-Brocks syndrome). Next, we performed a wide genome search and we observed evidence of linkage to 1p21.1-q23.3 in F2 (LOD max 3.01 at theta = 0). Interestingly, this locus was not linked to the phenotype segregating in F1. Therefore, our results led to the mapping of a first locus of ACS (ACS1) and also showed evidence for genetic heterogeneity, suggesting that there are at least two loci responsible for this phenotype.