Updated estimates of the costs associated with thirty four endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain: A note

This Note outlines the further development of a system of models for the estimation of the costs of livestock diseases first presented by Bennett (2003). The models have been developed to provide updated and improved estimates of the costs associated with 34 endemic diseases of livestock in Great Britain, using border prices and including assessments of the impact of diseases on human health and animal welfare. Results show that, of the diseases studied, mastitis has the highest costs for cattle diseases, enzootic abortion for sheep diseases, swine influenza for pig diseases and salmonellosis for poultry diseases.

Farm costs associated with premovement testing for bovine tuberculosis

Sixty cattle farmers in England were questioned about the costs associated with premovement testing for bovine tuberculosis (TB). On average, the farmers had premovement tested 2-45 times in the previous 12 months, but the majority had tested only once. An average of 28.6 animals were tested on each occasion, but there were wide variations. The average farm labour costs were (sic)4.00 per animal tested, veterinary costs were (sic)4.33 and other costs were (sic)0.51, giving a total cost of (sic)8.84, but there were wide variations between farms, and many incurred costs of more than (sic)20 per animal. A majority of the farmers also cited disruption to the farm business or missed market opportunities as costs, but few could estimate their financial cost. Most of the farmers thought that premovement testing was a cost burden on their business, and over half thought It was not an effective policy to control bovine TB.

Costs to farmers of a tuberculosis breakdown

An on-farm survey of 151 cattle farmers who had experienced a bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) breakdown on their farms was undertaken in 2003 to assess the costs associated with the breakdown. In 90 per cent of cases the cost was estimated to be less than 18,513 pound for dairy herds and less than El 1,462 for beef herds, but with a range from 229 pound to 103,817 pound. The main cost was the slaughter of reactor cattle. For the majority of the farmers, the compensation payments seemed to meet most of the costs of their breakdowns, although a majority was still left with net losses.

The costs and benefits of digital dermatitis control on UK dairy farms

Digital dermatitis is a significant problem in UK dairy herds and the cost to farmers has not yet been fully quantified. Under the current farm health planning initiative there is a need to demonstrate to farmers the costs and benefits of disease control. This paper presents the first attempt to quantify the costs and benefits of digital dermatitis control on UK dairy farms through the use of an interactive model.

Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

Statistical evaluation of an acute dermal toxicity test using the dermal fixed dose procedure

The conventional method for the assessment of acute dermal toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 402, 1987) uses death of animals as an endpoint to identify the median lethal dose (LD50). A new OECD Testing Guideline called the dermal fixed dose procedure (dermal FDP) is being prepared to provide an alternative to Test Guideline 402. In contrast to Test Guideline 402, the dermal FDP does not provide a point estimate of the LD50, but aims to identify that dose of the substance under investigation that causes clear signs of nonlethal toxicity. This is then used to assign classification according to the new Globally Harmonised System of Classification and Labelling scheme (GHS). The dermal FDP has been validated using statistical modelling rather than by in vivo testing. The statistical modelling approach enables calculation of the probability of each GHS classification and the expected numbers of deaths and animals used in the test for imaginary substances with a range of LD50 values and dose-response curve slopes. This paper describes the dermal FDP and reports the results from the statistical evaluation. It is shown that the procedure will be completed with considerably less death and suffering than guideline 402, and will classify substances either in the same or a more stringent GHS class than that assigned on the basis of the LD50 value.

Statistical evaluation of the fixed concentration procedure for acute inhalation toxicity assessment

The conventional method for the assessment of acute inhalation toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 403, 1981) uses death of animals as an endpoint to identify the median lethal concentration (LC50). A new OECD Testing Guideline called the Fixed Concentration Procedure (FCP) is being prepared to provide an alternative to Test Guideline 403. Unlike Test Guideline 403, the FCP does not provide a point estimate of the LC50, but aims to identify an airborne exposure level that causes clear signs of nonlethal toxicity. This is then used to assign classification according to the new Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling scheme (GHS). The FCP has been validated using statistical simulation rather than byin vivo testing. The statistical simulation approach predicts the GHS classification outcome and the numbers of deaths and animals used in the test for imaginary substances with a range of LC50 values and dose response curve slopes. This paper describes the FCP and reports the results from the statistical simulation study assessing its properties. It is shown that the procedure will be completed with considerably less death and suffering than Test Guideline 403, and will classify substances either in the same or a more stringent GHS class than that assigned on the basis of the LC50 value.

A statistical evaluation of the fixed dose procedure

The fixed-dose procedure (FDP) was introduced as OECD Test Guideline 420 in 1992, as an alternative to the conventional median lethal dose (LD50) test for the assessment of acute oral toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 401). The FDP uses fewer animals and causes less suffering than the conventional test, while providing information on the acute toxicity to allow substances to be ranked according to the EU hazard classification system. Recently the FDP has been revised, with the aim of providing further reductions and refinements, and classification according to the criteria of the Globally Harmonized Hazard Classification and Labelling scheme (GHS). This paper describes the revised FDP and analyses its properties, as determined by a statistical modelling approach. The analysis shows that the revised FDP classifies substances for acute oral toxicity generally in the same, or a more stringent, hazard class as that based on the LD50 value, according to either the GHS or the EU classification scheme. The likelihood of achieving the same classification is greatest for substances with a steep dose-response curve and median toxic dose (TD50) close to the LD50. The revised FDP usually requires five or six animals with two or fewer dying as a result of treatment in most cases.

Fitness costs of dispersal in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

The costs of dispersal are an important factor promoting natal philopatry, thereby encouraging the formation of social groups. The red fox, Vulpes vulpes, exhibits a highly flexible social system and one that is thought to represent a possible stage in the evolution of more complex patterns of group-living. Although the potential benefits accruing to philopatric offspring have previously been studied in this species, the potential costs of dispersal have received less attention. We contrasted survival rates, nutritional status, injuries and reproductive output of dispersing and non-dispersing male and female foxes in an urban population to assess the relative costs of dispersal versus natal philopatry. Mortality rates were not significantly higher for dispersing foxes, either in the short- or long-term. There was no evidence of increased nutritional stress in dispersing individuals. Dispersing individuals did, however, exhibit greater levels of wounding, although this did not appear to affect survival. Dispersing females were more likely to miss a breeding opportunity early in their reproductive lifespan. In contrast, both dispersing and non-dispersing males were unlikely to breed in their first year. We conclude that the major fitness component in females affected by dispersing is age at first reproduction.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

The costs and consequences of parasitoid attack for the predatory hoverfly, Episyrphus balteatus

Question: What are the life-history costs for a predatory insect of surviving parasitoid attack, and can parasitoid attack alter predator-prey interactions? Hypotheses: Survivorship is influenced by host age. Hosts that suffer parasitoid attack grow more slowly and consume fewer prey. Those that survive attack are smaller as adults and show reduced survivorship. Organisms: The aphidophagous hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, its endoparasitoid wasp Diplazon laetatorius and its prey, the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Site of experiments: All experiments were conducted in controlled temperature rooms and chambers in the laboratory. Methods: Episyrphus balteatus larvae of each instar were exposed to attack by Diplazon laetatorius, then dissected to measure the encapsulation response (a measure of immunity). Second instar larvae were either attacked or not attacked by D. laetatorius. Their development rates and numbers of prey consumed were noted. The size and survivorship of surviving (immune) and control hoverflies were compared following eclosion. Conclusions: Successful immune response increased with larval age (first instar 0%, second instar 40%, third instar 100% survival). Second instar larvae that successfully resisted parasitoid attack were larger as pupae (but not as adults) and showed reduced adult survivorship. Female adult survivors were more likely than male survivors to have died within 16 days of eclosion, but there was no difference between unattacked male and female control hoverflies. Attacked larvae, irrespective of immune status, consumed fewer aphids than unattacked individuals. Episyrphus balteatus suffers significant costs of resisting parasitoid attack, and parasitoid attack can reduce the top-down effects of an insect predator, irrespective of whether the host mounts an immune response or not.