Effects of time since fire on birds : how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (>20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (<5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (>20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.

The influence of unburnt patches and distance from refuges on post-fire bird communities

Predicting the response of faunal communities to fire presents a challenge for land managers worldwide because the post-fire responses of species may vary between locations and fire events. Post-fire recovery can occur via nucleated recovery from in situ surviving populations or by colonization from ex situ populations. Fine-scale spatial patterns in the patchiness of fires and the proximity of burnt sites to source populations may contribute to both the variability in post-fire responses and the processes by which populations recover. We examined the avifauna at recently burnt sites within extensive semi-arid shrublands of south-eastern Australia, including 72 sites < 5 years since fire and 26 sites 10 years since fire. Study sites represented a gradient of increasing distance from ‘unburnt’ vegetation (i.e. > 27 years since fire) and varied in the presence or absence of small (25–900 m2) unburnt patches of vegetation. For sites < 5 years since fire, species richness was higher at sites closer to unburnt vegetation and at sites containing unburnt patches. These patterns were no longer evident at sites of 10 years since fire. The probability of occurrence of three of seven bird species modelled decreased with increasing distance to unburnt vegetation, but this pattern was evident only at sites burnt uniformly. One species was found almost exclusively at patchily burnt sites. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that proximity to unburnt vegetation enhances post-fire occupancy, and that colonization from ex situ populations is an important process for post-fire recovery of avifauna. Additionally, small unburnt patches enhance the rapid recovery of assemblages post-fire. These patterns are important for understanding the dynamics of post-fire population recovery. We recommend that management of fire for ecological purposes should explicitly consider the role that the spatial attributes of fires play in determining the post-fire community.

A comparative analysis of decision trees vis-à-vis other computational data mining techniques in automotive insurance fraud detection

The development and application of computational data mining techniques in financial fraud detection and business failure prediction has become a popular cross-disciplinary research area in recent times involving financial economists, forensic accountants and computational modellers. Some of the computational techniques popularly used in the context of - financial fraud detection and business failure prediction can also be effectively applied in the detection of fraudulent insurance claims and therefore, can be of immense practical value to the insurance industry. We provide a comparative analysis of prediction performance of a battery of data mining techniques using real-life automotive insurance fraud data. While the data we have used in our paper is US-based, the computational techniques we have tested can be adapted and generally applied to detect similar insurance frauds in other countries as well where an organized automotive insurance industry exists.

Fire and its interaction with ecological processes in box-ironbark forests

Box-Ironbark forests extend across a swathe of northern Victoria on the inland side of the Great Dividing Range. Although extensively cleared and modified, they support a distinctive suite of plants and animals. Historical fire regimes in this ecosystem are largely unknown, as are the effects of fire on most of the biota. However, knowledge of the ecological attributes of plant species has been used to determine minimum and maximum tolerable fire intervals for this ecosystem to guide current fire management. Here, we consider the potential effects of planned fire in the context of major ecological drivers of the current box-ironbark forests: namely, the climate and physical environment; historical land clearing and fragmentation; and extractive land uses. We outline an experimental management and research project based on application of planned burns in different seasons (autumn, spring) and at different levels of burn cover (patchy, extensive). A range of ecological attributes will be monitored before and after burns to provide better understanding of the landscape-scale effects of fire in box-ironbark forests. Such integration of management and research is essential to address the many knowledge gaps in fire ecology, particularly in the context of massively increased levels of planned burning currently being implemented in Victoria.

Insuring for a crisis: deposit insurance and the GFC, the Australian and New Zealand experience

Deposit insurance schemes were an important element in policy responses to the global financial crisis (GFC). There has been considerable debate about the nature and efficacy of such policy measures in alleviating the fallout from financial crises. The GFC highlighted problems associated with deposit insurance schemes including moral hazard, coverage limits, co-insurance, cross border issues and market distortions. Despite these shortcomings, deposit insurance schemes were able to ameliorate the financial panic experienced and reduce contagion. This paper evaluates the Australian and New Zealand experience with deposit insurance introduced in response to the GFC, and compares this to the OECD experience. It reflects on the performance of deposit insurance schemes considered against the attributes of good policy design, and evaluates the specific problems and strengths encountered during the GFC.

Fire mosaics and reptile conservation in a fire-prone region

Fire influences the distribution of fauna in terrestrial biomes throughout the world. Use of fire to achieve a mosaic of vegetation in different stages of succession after burning (i.e., patch-mosaic burning) is a dominant conservation practice in many regions. Despite this, knowledge of how the spatial attributes of vegetation mosaics created by fire affect fauna is extremely scarce, and it is unclear what kind of mosaic land managers should aim to achieve. We selected 28 landscapes (each 12.6 km2) that varied in the spatial extent and diversity of vegetation succession after fire in a 104,000 km2 area in the semiarid region of southeastern Australia. We surveyed for reptiles at 280 sites nested within the 28 landscapes. The landscape-level occurrence of 9 of the 22 species modeled was associated with the spatial extent of vegetation age classes created by fire. Biogeographic context and the extent of a vegetation type influenced 7 and 4 species, respectively. No species were associated with the diversity of vegetation ages within a landscape. Negative relations between reptile occurrence and both extent of recently burned vegetation (≤10 years postfire, n = 6) and long unburned vegetation (>35 years postfire, n = 4) suggested that a coarse-grained mosaic of areas (e.g. >1000 ha) of midsuccessional vegetation (11–35 years postfire) may support the fire-sensitive reptile species we modeled. This age class coincides with a peak in spinifex cover, a keystone structure for reptiles in semiarid and arid Australia. Maintaining over the long term a coarse-grained mosaic of large areas of midsuccessional vegetation in mallee ecosystems will need to be balanced against the short-term negative effects of large fires on many reptile species and a documented preference by species from other taxonomic groups, particularly birds, for older vegetation.

The Mallee Fire and Biodiversity Project

Fire is a widespread disturbance and an important ecological process in semi-arid mallee ecosystems of southern Australia. Understanding the effects of fire on plants and animals is a key challenge for the conservation and management of biodiversity in this ecosystem. Commenctngin2006, the Mallee Fire and Biodiversity Project is investigating the effects of fire on range of taxa (vascular plants, invertebrates, reptiles, birds and mammals), with a focus on the influence of the properties of 'fire mosaics' on biota. A 'whole of landscape' design was employed, in which the flora and fauna were sampled in 28 study landscapes, each4 km in diameter (12.5 km2) across a 104,000 km2 area of the Murray Mallee region of Victoria, SA and NSW. Here, we summarise some key results and outputs from this project to date. These include: detailed maps of fire history and major vegetation types; a method for predicting the age of mallee vegetation; novel information about the distribution of fire age-classes in the region; and changes to vegetation structure and in the occurrence of reptile, bird and mammal species over a century-long post-fire time-frame. We also present an overview of the effects of fire mosaics (extent of particular age classes, diversity of fire age-classes) on the richness of some mallee fauna. A wealth of knowledge has been developed through the Mallee Fire and Biodiversity Project that will assist the management of mallee ecosystems in southern Australia for the future.