Stand dynamics modelling approaches for multicohort management of eastern Canadian boreal forests

Abstract

Effects of coastal submarine canyons on tsunami propagation and impact

We analyse the variations produced on tsunami propagation and impact over a straight coastline because of the presence of a submarine canyon incised in the continental margin. For ease of calculation we assume that the shoreline and the shelf edge are parallel and that the incident wave approaches them normally. A total of 512 synthetic scenarios have been computed by combining the bathymetry of a continental margin incised by a parameterised single canyon and the incident tsunami waves. The margin bathymetry, the canyon and the tsunami waves have been generated using mathematical functions (e.g. Gaussian). Canyon parameters analysed are: (i) incision length into the continental shelf, which for a constant shelf width relates directly to the distance from the canyon head to the coast, (ii) canyon width, and (iii) canyon orientation with respect to the shoreline. Tsunami wave parameters considered are period and sign. The COMCOT tsunami model from Cornell University was applied to propagate the waves across the synthetic bathymetric surfaces. Five simulations of tsunami propagation over a non-canyoned margin were also performed for reference. The analysis of the results reveals a strong variation of tsunami arrival times and amplitudes reaching the coastline when a tsunami wave travels over a submarine canyon, with changing maximum height location and alongshore extension. In general, the presence of a submarine canyon lowers the arrival time to the shoreline but prevents wave build-up just over the canyon axis. This leads to a decrease in tsunami amplitude at the coastal stretch located just shoreward of the canyon head, which results in a lower run-up in comparison with a non-canyoned margin. Contrarily, an increased wave build-up occurs on both sides of the canyon head, generating two coastal stretches with an enhanced run-up. These aggravated or reduced tsunami effects are modified with (i) proximity of the canyon tip to the coast, amplifying the wave height, (ii) canyon width, enlarging the areas with lower and higher maximum height wave along the coastline, and (iii) canyon obliquity with respect to the shoreline and shelf edge, increasing wave height shoreward of the leeward flank of the canyon. Moreover, the presence of a submarine canyon near the coast produces a variation of wave energy along the shore, eventually resulting in edge waves shoreward of the canyon head. Edge waves subsequently spread out alongshore reaching significant amplitudes especially when coupling with tsunami secondary waves occurs. Model results have been groundtruthed using the actual bathymetry of Blanes Canyon area in the North Catalan margin. This paper underlines the effects of the presence, morphology and orientation of submarine canyons as a determining factor on tsunami propagation and impact, which could prevail over other effects deriving from coastal configuration.

Simulation of surface waves in porous media

We present a novel numerical algorithm for the simulation of seismic wave propagation in porous media, which is particularly suitable for the accurate modelling of surface wave-type phenomena. The differential equations of motion are based on Biot's theory of poro-elasticity and solved with a pseudospectral approach using Fourier and Chebyshev methods to compute the spatial derivatives along the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. The time solver is a splitting algorithm that accounts for the stiffness of the differential equations. Due to the Chebyshev operator the grid spacing in the vertical direction is non-uniform and characterized by a denser spatial sampling in the vicinity of interfaces, which allows for a numerically stable and accurate evaluation of higher order surface wave modes. We stretch the grid in the vertical direction to increase the minimum grid spacing and reduce the computational cost. The free-surface boundary conditions are implemented with a characteristics approach, where the characteristic variables are evaluated at zero viscosity. The same procedure is used to model seismic wave propagation at the interface between a fluid and porous medium. In this case, each medium is represented by a different grid and the two grids are combined through a domain-decomposition method. This wavefield decomposition method accounts for the discontinuity of variables and is crucial for an accurate interface treatment. We simulate seismic wave propagation with open-pore and sealed-pore boundary conditions and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm by comparing the numerical simulations to analytical solutions based on zero viscosity obtained with the Cagniard-de Hoop method. Finally, we illustrate the suitability of our algorithm for more complex models of porous media involving viscous pore fluids and strongly heterogeneous distributions of the elastic and hydraulic material properties.

Report on a special investigation of certain bank accounts held by the City of Davenport Fire Department for the period January 1, 2009 through October 22, 2014

Report on a special investigation of certain bank accounts held by the City of Davenport Fire Department for the period January 1, 2009 through October 22, 2014

Analysis of sensitivity with respect to a compositional parameter : A comment on 'Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling' by L. Loosvelt and co-authors

A comment about the article “Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling” writen by L. Loosvelt and co-authors. The present comment is centered in three specific points. The first one is related to the fact that the authors avoid the use of ilr-coordinates. The second one refers to some generalization of sensitivity analysis when input parameters are compositional. The third tries to show that the role of the Dirichlet distribution in the sensitivity analysis is irrelevant

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Convention sanitaire internationale, signée à Paris, le 17 janvier 1912 et ratifiée le 7 octobre 1920 en vue d'arrêter les mesures propres à sauvegarder la santé publique contre l'invasion et la propagation de la peste, du choléra et de la fièvre jaune (rendue exécutoire en France, par décret du 14 octobre 1920, publié au "Journal officiel" du 21 octobre 1920)

[Traité. 1912-01-17. Paris (Français)]

Modelling variation of needle density of Scots pine at high latitudes

[Abstract]

Molecular and social regulation of worker division of labour in fire ants.

Reproductive and worker division of labour (DOL) is a hallmark of social insect societies. Despite a long-standing interest in worker DOL, the molecular mechanisms regulating this process have only been investigated in detail in honey bees, and little is known about the regulatory mechanisms operating in other social insects. In the fire ant Solenopsis invicta, one of the most studied ant species, workers are permanently sterile and the tasks performed are modulated by the worker's internal state (age and size) and the outside environment (social environment), which potentially includes the effect of the queen presence through chemical communication via pheromones. However, the molecular mechanisms underpinning these processes are unknown. Using a whole-genome microarray platform, we characterized the molecular basis for worker DOL and we explored how a drastic change in the social environment (i.e. the sudden loss of the queen) affects global gene expression patterns of worker ants. We identified numerous genes differentially expressed between foraging and nonforaging workers in queenright colonies. With a few exceptions, these genes appear to be distinct from those involved in DOL in bees and wasps. Interestingly, after the queen was removed, foraging workers were no longer distinct from nonforaging workers at the transcriptomic level. Furthermore, few expression differences were detected between queenright and queenless workers when we did not consider the task performed. Thus, the social condition of the colony (queenless vs. queenright) appears to impact the molecular pathways underlying worker task performance, providing strong evidence for social regulation of DOL in S. invicta.

Nonequilibrium phase transition in a model for the propagation of innovations among economic agents

We characterize the different morphological phases that occur in a simple one-dimensional model of propagation of innovations among economic agents [X. Guardiola et al., Phys. Rev E 66, 026121 (2002)]. We show that the model can be regarded as a nonequilibrium surface growth model. This allows us to demonstrate the presence of a continuous roughening transition between a flat (system size independent fluctuations) and a rough phase (system size dependent fluctuations). Finite-size scaling studies at the transition strongly suggest that the dynamic critical transition does not belong to directed percolation and, in fact, critical exponents do not seem to fit in any of the known universality classes of nonequilibrium phase transitions. Finally, we present an explanation for the occurrence of the roughening transition and argue that avalanche driven dynamics is responsible for the novel critical behavior.

Audit report on the Guthrie Center Fire Fighters Association for the year ended December 31, 2014

Audit report on the Guthrie Center Fire Fighters Association for the year ended December 31, 2014

Do fire and seed additions alter strong seed timing and priority effects on prairie establishment?, 2011

Many prairie restoration projects are hampered by a lack of knowledge on how to restore the high diversity found in prairies, while at the same time preventing the establishment of a large weedy component. Methods are needed to increase diversity and abundance of native species while minimizing exotic species invasions in both 1) newly planted restorations and 2) established restorations. We established an experiment in Story and Monona counties in 2005 to determine the effects of different native cover crop species and timing of seeding on the establishment of new prairie restorations. We found that adding a 30-species prairie mix in early spring led to diverse native communities, but adding the mix in the late summer or the following year after cover crops established led to low diversity communities dominated by exotics. The identity of cover crops affected communities less than timing of seed additions. A second seed addition added to ash after a spring fire in the seventh year (Monona County site) increased recruitment from the prairie mix slightly, but the increase was not enough to cause convergence in the treatments. Surprisingly, the second seed addition increased diversity only in communities that were already the most diverse (i.e., in plots seeded with the prairie mix in early spring before cover crops established). These results imply that 1) cover crops are not effective for establishing prairie and 2) over seeding into established plots may not be an easy and efficient way to increase native recruitment and lower weedy species abundances. Therefore, focusing on establishing high levels of recruitment and diversity and excluding weedy species during the critical time early in establishment should be a priority for new projects.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Microbial communities in Cerrado soils under native vegetation subjected to prescribed fire and under pasture

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of fire regimes and vegetation cover on the structure and dynamics of soil microbial communities, through phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. Comparisons were made between native areas with different woody covers ("cerrado stricto sensu" and "campo sujo"), under different fire regimes, and a 20-year-old active palisadegrass pasture in the Central Plateau of Brazil. Microbial biomass was higher in the native plots than in the pasture, and the highest monthly values were observed during the rainy season in the native plots. No significant differences were observed between fire regimes or between communities from the two native vegetation types. However, the principal component (PC) analysis separated the microbial communities by vegetation cover (native x pasture) and season (wet x dry), accounting for 45.8% (PC1 and PC3) and 25.6% (PC2 and PC3), respectively, of the total PLFA variability. Changes in land cover and seasonal rainfall in Cerrado ecosystems have significant effects on the total density of soil microorganisms and on the abundance of microbial groups, especially Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria.