Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Syntheses of two new 1D and 3D networks of Cu(II) and Co(II) using malonate and urotropine as bridging ligands: Crystal structures and magnetic studies

Two new metal-organic based polymeric complexes, [Cu-4(O2CCH2CO2)(4)(L)].7H(2)O (1) and [CO2(O2CCH2CO2)(2)(L)].2H(2)O (2) [L = hexamethylenetetramine (urotropine)], have been synthesized and characterized by X-ray crystal structure determination and magnetic studies. Complex 1 is a 1D coordination polymer comprising a carboxylato, bridged Cu-4 moiety linked by a tetradentate bridging urotropine. Complex 2 is a 3D coordination polymer made of pseudo-two-dimensional layers of Co(II) ions linked by malonate anions in syn-anticonformation which are bridged by bidentate urotropine in trans fashion, Complex 1 crystallizes in the orthothombic system, space group Pmmn, with a = 14,80(2) Angstrom, b = 14.54(2) Angstrom, c = 7.325(10) Angstrom, beta = 90degrees, and Z = 4. Complex 2 crystallizes in the orthorhombic system, space group Imm2, a = 7.584(11) Angstrom, b = 15.80(2) Angstrom, c = 6.939(13) Angstrom, beta = 90.10degrees(1), and Z = 4. Variable temperature (300-2 K) magnetic behavior reveals the existence of ferro- and antiferromagnetic interactions in 1 and only antiferromagnetic interactions in 2. The best fitted parameters for complex 1 are J = 13.5 cm(-1), J = -18.1 cm(-1), and g = 2.14 considering only intra-Cu-4 interactions through carboxylate and urotropine pathways. In case of complex 2, the fit of the magnetic data considering intralayer interaction through carboxylate pathway as well as interlayer interaction via urotropine pathway gave no satisfactory result at this moment using any model known due to considerable orbital contribution of Co(II) ions to the magnetic moment and its complicated structure. Assuming isolated Co(II) ions (without any coupling, J = 0) the shape of the chi(M)T curve fits well with experimental data except at very low temperatures.

Syntheses, structural analyses, and magneto-structural correlations of three polymeric Fe(II) complexes with azide ligand

Three new metal-organic polymeric complexes, [Fe(N-3)(2)(bPP)(2)] (1), [Fe(N-3)(2)(bpe)] (2), and [Fe(N-3)(2)(phen)] (3) [bpp = (1,3-bis(4-pyridyl)-propane), bpe = (1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)-ethane), phen = 1,10-phenanthroline], have been synthesized and characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies and low-temperature magnetic measurements in the range 300-2 K. Complexes 1 and 2 crystallize in the monoclinic system, space group C2/c, with the following cell parameters: a = 19.355(4) Angstrom, b = 7.076(2) Angstrom, c = 22.549(4) Angstrom, beta = 119.50(3)degrees, Z = 4, and a = 10.007(14) Angstrom, b = 13.789(18) Angstrom, c = 10.377(14) Angstrom, beta = 103.50(1)degrees, Z = 4, respectively. Complex 3 crystallizes in the triclinic system, space group P (1) over bar, with a = 7.155(12) Angstrom, b = 10.066(14) Angstrom, c = 10.508(14) Angstrom, alpha = 109.57(1)degrees, beta = 104.57(1)degrees, gamma = 105.10(1)degrees, and Z = 2. All coordination polymers exhibit octahedral Fe(II) nodes. The structural determination of 1 reveals a parallel interpenetrated structure of 2D layers of (4,4) topology, formed by Fe(II) nodes linked through bpp ligands, while mono-coordinated azide anions are pendant from the corrugated sheet. Complex 2 has a 2D arrangement constructed through 1D double end-to-end azide bridged iron(11) chains interconnected through bpe ligands. Complex 3 shows a polymeric arrangement where the metal ions are interlinked through pairs of end-on and end-to-end azide ligands exhibiting a zigzag arrangement of metals (Fe-Fe-Fe angle of 111.18degrees) and an intermetallic separation of 3.347 Angstrom (through the EO azide) and of 5.229 Angstrom (EE azide). Variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility data suggest that there is no magnetic interaction between the metal centers in 1, whereas in 2 there is an antiferromagnetic interaction through the end-to-end azide bridge. Complex 3 shows ferro- as well as anti-ferromagnetic interactions between the metal centers generated through the alternating end-on and end-to-end azide bridges. Complex I has been modeled using the D parameter (considering distorted octahedral Fe(II) geometry and with any possible J value equal to zero) and complex 2 has been modeled as a one-dimensional system with classical and/or quantum spin where we have used two possible full diagonalization processes: without and with the D parameter, considering the important distortions of the Fe(II) ions. For complex 3, the alternating coupling model impedes a mathematical solution for the modeling as classical spins. With quantum spin, the modeling has been made as in 2.

Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

A unique example of structural and magnetic diversity in four interconvertible copper(II)−azide complexes with the same Schiff base ligand: a monomer, a dimer, a chain, and a layer

Four new Cu(II)-azido complexes of formula [CuL(N-3)] (1), [CuL(N-3)](2) (2), [Cu7L2(N-3)(12)](n) (3), and [Cu2L(dmen)-(N-3)(3)](n) (4) (dmen = N,N-dimethylethylenediamine) have been synthesized using the same tridentate Schiff base ligand HL (2-[1-(2-dimethylaminoethylimino)ethyl]phenol, the condensation product of dmen and 2-hydroxyacetophenone). The four compounds have been characterized by X-ray structural analyses and variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements. Complex 1 is mononuclear, whereas 2 is a single mu-1,1 azido-bridged dinuclear compound. The polymeric compound 3 possesses a 2D structure in which the Cu(II) ions are linked by phenoxo oxygen atoms and two different azide bridges (mu-1,1 and mu-1,1,3). The structure of complex 4 is a double helix in which two mu-1,3-azido-bridged alternating one-dimensional helical chains of CuL(N-3) and Cu(dmen)(N-3)(2) are joined together by weak mu-1,1 azido bridges and H-bonds. The complexes interconvert in solution and can be obtained in pure form by carefully controlling the conditions. The magnetic properties of compounds 1 and 2 show the presence of very weak antiferromagnetic exchange interactions mediated by a ligand pi overlap (J = -1.77) and by an asymmetric 1,1-N-3 bridge (J = -1.97 cm(-1)), respectively. Compound 3 presents, from the magnetic point of view, a decorated chain structure with both ferro- and antiferromagnetic interactions. Compound 4 is an alternating helicoidal chain with two weak antiferromagnetic exchange interactions (J -1.35 and -2.64 cm(-1)).

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

Avaliação citopatológica da medula óssea e perfil hematológico de cães naturalmente infectados por Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasiCarla de Oliveira Honse

Foram avaliados quarenta e um cães adultos, machos e fêmeas, sem raça definida, provenientes de inquéritos sorológicos para leishmaniose visceral canina realizados pela Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever as alterações citopatológicas da medula óssea e o perfil hematológico de cães naturalmente infectados por Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi. A avaliação citológica da medula óssea incluiu a análise qualitativa e quantitativa. O perfil hematológico foi avaliado através de contador automático de células e esfregaços sanguíneos. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas a imunofenotipagem de linfócitos medulares, pesquisa de formas amastigotas na medula óssea e avaliação dos estoques de ferro medular. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, cães naturalmente infectados por L. (L.) chagasi apresentaram hiperplasia das séries mieloide, linfoide e monocítica, onde frequentemente foram observadas formas amastigotas, anemia normocítica normocrômica e aumento dos estoques de ferro medular Não foram observadas diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre as populações de linfócitos T e linfócitos B medulares. Em conclusão, os cães naturalmente infectados por L. (L.) chagasi apresentaram alterações na medula óssea e no perfil hematológico independentemente da manifestação clínica apresentada pelo animal. Hiperplasia das linhagens hematopoiéticas, anemia, eritrofagocitose e aumento dos estoques de ferro medular possibilitaram uma melhor compreensão dos mecanismos fisiopatológicos envolvidos na doença e a pesquisa de formas amastigotas na medula óssea contribuiu como uma importante ferramenta diagnóstica da leishmaniose visceral canina

Avaliação dos produtos da degradação da hemoglobina na lesão cerebral e mecanismos de proteção encefálica após a hemorragia intracraniana

Introdução: O acidente vascular encefálico hemorrágico e a hemorragia subaracnóide são doenças de elevada morbi-mortalidade. Os produtos da degradação da hemoglobina são implicados em diversos estudos experimentais como elementoschave na fisiopatologia da lesão secundária após a hemorragia intracraniana. Entretanto, há poucos dados em humanos que possam corroborar as observações experimentais. Objetivo: Avaliar o papel dos produtos da degradação da hemoglobina e dos mecanismos de proteção contra a hemoglobina e o heme na fisiopatologia do dano secundário à hemorragia intracraniana. Métodos: Estudo prospectivo realizado nas unidades neurointensivas de três hospitais. Foi coletado sangue e líquor (pela DVE) de pacientes internados com AVEh ou HSA e hemoventrículo durante os primeiros três dias após o ictus. Foram dosadas sequencialmente as concentrações de ferro, heme, hemopexina, haptoglobina, enolase e S100-\03B2 além de um painel de citocinas. O desfecho primário era mortalidade em 7 dias Resultados: Quinze pacientes foram incluídos, 10 com HSA e 5 com AVEh. Após a hemorragia intracraniana, ocorreu o desencadeamento da resposta inflamatória no sistema nervoso central (SNC), com níveis de IL-8 e GM-CSF no líquor cerca de 20x superiores ao do plasma. Foi observada a correlação entre a concentração de ferro e IP-10 no líquor (r=0,97; p=0,03) e heme e MIP-1b no líquor (r=0,76; p=0,01). Os níveis de hemopexina e haptoglobina foram consistentemente inferiores no líquor em relação ao plasma, ao longo dos três dias de estudo. Tanto o ferro e heme plasmáticos, quanto o grau de resposta inflamatória sistêmica e no SNC foram preditores de mortalidade nos primeiros 7 dias após o evento. Conclusão: Os resultados desse estudo mostram que tanto o ferro quanto o heme estão correlacionados ao desencadeamento da lesão secundária após a hemorragia intracraniana e estão associados ao pior prognóstico neste grupo de pacientes. Além disso, os mecanismos de proteção cerebral contra a hemoglobina e o heme são insuficientes. Mais estudos são necessários para elucidar o papel dos produtos da degradação da hemoglobina na fisiopatologia da hemorragia intracraniana em humanos

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.