931 resultados para Failure Probability


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Total serum lipids, as well as apolipoproteins A-I (apo A-I) and B (apo B), were determined in 74 patients with chronic liver failure without cholestasis and in 82 normal subjects. The VLDL, LDL and HDL lipid fractions were reduced in the liver failure group by 36%, 24% and 46%, respectively (P<0.001). Apolipoproteins A-I and B were also reduced by 26% and 25%, respectively (P<0.001). However, the reduction of HDL cholesterol (HDLc) was more pronounced than that of apo A-I and the HDLc:apo A-I ratio was significantly lower in the liver failure group. After separating these patients into groups with plasma albumin lower than 3.0, between 3.0 and 3.5, and higher than 3.5 g/dl, the HDLc:apo A-I ratio was proportional to plasma albumin, but the correlation was not statistically significant. When these patients were separated by the Child classification of liver function, there was a correlation between the HDLc:apo A-I ratio and liver function. The differences in the HDLc:apo A-I ratio between the Child groups B and C, and A and C were statistically significant (P<0.05). We conclude that there is a more pronounced reduction in HDL cholesterol than in apo A-I in liver failure patients. Therefore, the HDLc:apo A-I ratio is a marker of liver function, probably because there is a decreased lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase production by the diseased liver

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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

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Hypomagnesemia is the most common electrolyte disturbance seen upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Reliable predictors of its occurrence are not described. The objective of this prospective study was to determine factors predictive of hypomagnesemia upon admission to the ICU. In a single tertiary cancer center, 226 patients with different diagnoses upon entering were studied. Hypomagnesemia was defined by serum levels <1.5 mg/dl. Demographic data, type of cancer, cause of admission, previous history of arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease, renal failure, drug administration (particularly diuretics, antiarrhythmics, chemotherapy and platinum compounds), previous nutrition intake and presence of hypovolemia were recorded for each patient. Blood was collected for determination of serum magnesium, potassium, sodium, calcium, phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels. Upon admission, 103 (45.6%) patients had hypomagnesemia and 123 (54.4%) had normomagnesemia. A normal dietary habit prior to ICU admission was associated with normal Mg levels (P = 0.007) and higher average levels of serum Mg (P = 0.002). Postoperative patients (N = 182) had lower levels of serum Mg (0.60 ± 0.14 mmol/l compared with 0.66 ± 0.17 mmol/l, P = 0.006). A stepwise multiple linear regression disclosed that only normal dietary habits (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.26-0.79) and the fact of being a postoperative patient (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.17-4.98) were significantly correlated with serum Mg levels (overall model probability = 0.001). These findings should be used to identify patients at risk for such disturbance, even in other critically ill populations.

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To determine the effects of combined therapy of gliclazide and bedtime insulin on glycemic control and C-peptide secretion, we studied 25 patients with type 2 diabetes and sulfonylurea secondary failure, aged 56.8 ± 8.3 years, with a duration of diabetes of 10.6 ± 6.6 years, fasting plasma glucose of 277.3 ± 64.6 mg/dl and a body mass index of 27.4 ± 4.8 kg/m². Patients were submitted to three therapeutic regimens lasting 2 months each: 320 mg gliclazide (phase 1), 320 mg gliclazide and bedtime NPH insulin (phase 2), and insulin (phase 3). At the end of each period, glycemic and C-peptide curves in response to a mixed meal were determined. During combined therapy, there was a decrease in all glycemic curve values (P<0.01). Twelve patients (48%) reached fasting plasma glucose <140 mg/dl with a significant weight gain of 64.8 kg (43.1-98.8) vs 66.7 kg (42.8-101.4) (P<0.05), with no increase in C-peptide secretion or decrease in HbA1. C-Peptide glucose score (C-peptide/glucose x 100) increased from 0.9 (0.2-2.1) to 1.3 (0.2-4.7) during combined therapy (P<0.01). Despite a 50% increase in insulin doses in phase 3 (12 U (9-30) vs 18 U (11-60); P<0.01) only 3 patients who responded to combined therapy maintained fasting plasma glucose <140 mg/dl (P<0.02). A tendency to a higher absolute increase in C-peptide (0.99 (0.15-2.5) vs 0.6 (0-2.15); P = 0.08) and C-peptide incremental area (2.47 (0.22-6.2) vs 1.2 (0-3.35); P = 0.07) was observed among responders. We conclude that combined therapy resulted in a better glucose response to a mixed meal than insulin alone and should be tried in type 2 diabetic patients before starting insulin monotherapy, despite difficulties in predicting the response.

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Several studies show the ability of macrophages to remove particles injected into the bloodstream. This function seems to be increased in the presence of acute renal failure. The objective of the present study was to assess the phagocytic function of the main organs (spleen, liver and lung) of the mononuclear phagocytic system in renal and postrenal failures. Fifteen rats (250-350 g) were divided into three groups (N = 5): group I - control; group II - ligature of both ureters, and group III - bilateral nephrectomy. On the third postoperative day, all animals received an iv injection of 1 ml/kg 99mTc sulfur colloid. Blood samples were collected for the assessment of plasma urea, creatinine, sodium, and potassium concentrations and arterial gasometry. Samples of liver, spleen, lung and blood clots were obtained and radioactivity was measured. Samples of liver, spleen, lung and kidney were prepared for routine histopathological analysis. Plasma urea, creatinine and potassium concentrations in groups II and III were higher than in group I (P<0.05). Plasma sodium concentrations in groups II and III were lower than in group I (P<0.05). Compensated metabolic acidosis was observed in the presence of postrenal failure. Group II animals showed a lower level of radioactivity in the spleen (0.98) and lung (2.63), and a higher level in the liver (105.51) than control. Group III animals showed a lower level of radioactivity in the spleen (11.94) and a higher level in the liver (61.80), lung (11.30) and blood clot (5.13) than control. In groups II and III liver steatosis and bronchopneumonia were observed. Renal and postrenal failures seem to interfere with blood clearance by the mononuclear phagocytic system.

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In patients with uremia, intact parathyroid hormone (PTH) measurement appears to overestimate the biologically active hormone in circulation. The recent description of the accumulation in these patients of a non-intact PTH form measured by the standard immunometric assays, re-opened the question. In this study we submitted serum samples from 7 patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHP) and from 10 patients with hyperparathyroidism secondary to chronic renal failure (SHP) to preparative HPLC in order to discriminate the molecular forms measured by our currently used immunofluorometric assay for intact PTH. The elution profile obtained with the HPLC system showed two clearly defined peaks, the first one corresponding to a lower molecular weight form, and the second to the intact PTH (1-84) form. In patients with SHP the area under the curve for the first peak (mean 29.5%, range 20.6 to 40.4%) was significantly greater than that observed for patients with PHP (mean 15.6%, range 5.6 to 21.9%). This confirms previous studies showing accumulation of molecular forms of slightly lower molecular weight, presumably PTH (7-84), in patients with SHP and, to a lesser extent, in patients with PHP. The real necessity of assays that discriminate between these two molecular forms is debatable.

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The aim of the present study was to identify the risk factors for ovarian failure in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. Seventy-one women aged 17 to 45 years with systemic lupus erythematosus were studied. Patients were interviewed and their medical records reviewed. Demographic characteristics, clinical and serologic profiles, and menstrual and obstetric histories were recorded. Disease activity was measured by the systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index. Serum FSH, LH, estradiol, progesterone, TSH, prolactin, and antimicrosomal and antithyroglobulin antibodies were measured. Patients who developed ovarian failure were compared to those who did not. Ovarian failure occurred in 11 patients (15.5%) and nine had premature menopause (11.3%). Cyclophosphamide administration and older patient age were found to be associated with ovarian failure. The cumulative cyclophosphamide dose was significantly higher in patients with ovarian failure than in those without this condition (18.9 vs 9.1 g; P = 0.04). The relative risk for ovarian failure in patients with cumulative cyclophosphamide dose higher than 10 g was 3.2. TSH levels were high in 100% of patients with ovarian failure who had received pulse cyclophosphamide. Ovarian failure, and premature menopause in particular, is common in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus, with the most important risk factors being cyclophosphamide dose and age. Thyroid problems may be another risk factor for ovarian failure in patients with lupus.

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The role of linoleic acid in chronic renal failure (CRF) is controversial. In the present study 21 male Wistar rats submitted to 5/6 renal mass reduction (R) and 16 normal controls (C) were fed a supplement (S) or normal (N) linoleic acid diet for 60 days starting 10 days after CRF. As expected, serum creatinine, cholesterol and triglycerides (mean ± SEM) were higher in the CRF groups compared to the C groups (P<0.05). The RS group presented lower cholesterol (84 ± 4 vs 126 ± 13 mg%) and triglyceride (88 ± 9 vs 132 ± 19 mg%) levels compared to the RN group. Proteinuria and kidney weight did not differ between CRF groups. Glomerular area increased 78% in RS and 100% in RN compared to control rats. Glomerular sclerosis index tended to be lower in RS (27%) compared to RN (38%), tubulointerstitial damage was similar between CRF groups (RS = 1.91 ± 0.2 and RN = 2.14 ± 0.3), and mesangial fractional volume increased to the same extent in both CRF groups. The data suggest that a linoleic acid-enriched diet did not protect against the progression of CRF after 60 days.

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Infarct-induced heart failure is usually associated with cardiac hypertrophy and decreased ß-adrenergic responsiveness. However, conflicting results have been reported concerning the density of L-type calcium current (I Ca(L)), and the mechanisms underlying the decreased ß-adrenergic inotropic response. We determined I Ca(L) density, cytoplasmic calcium ([Ca2+]i) transients, and the effects of ß-adrenergic stimulation (isoproterenol) in a model of postinfarction heart failure in rats. Left ventricular myocytes were obtained by enzymatic digestion 8-10 weeks after infarction. Electrophysiological recordings were obtained using the patch-clamp technique. [Ca2+]i transients were investigated via fura-2 fluorescence. ß-Adrenergic receptor density was determined by [³H]-dihydroalprenolol binding to left ventricle homogenates. Postinfarction myocytes showed a significant 25% reduction in mean I Ca(L) density (5.7 ± 0.28 vs 7.6 ± 0.32 pA/pF) and a 19% reduction in mean peak [Ca2+]i transients (0.13 ± 0.007 vs 0.16 ± 0.009) compared to sham myocytes. The isoproterenol-stimulated increase in I Ca(L) was significantly smaller in postinfarction myocytes (Emax: 63.6 ± 4.3 vs 123.3 ± 0.9% in sham myocytes), but EC50 was not altered. The isoproterenol-stimulated peak amplitude of [Ca2+]i transients was also blunted in postinfarction myocytes. Adenylate cyclase activation through forskolin produced similar I Ca(L) increases in both groups. ß-Adrenergic receptor density was significantly reduced in homogenates from infarcted hearts (Bmax: 93.89 ± 20.22 vs 271.5 ± 31.43 fmol/mg protein in sham myocytes), while Kd values were similar. We conclude that postinfarction myocytes from large infarcts display reduced I Ca(L) density and peak [Ca2+]i transients. The response to ß-adrenergic stimulation was also reduced and was probably related to ß-adrenergic receptor down-regulation and not to changes in adenylate cyclase activity.

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The concomitant use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and aspirin may cause pharmacological antagonism. Hence we examined the effect of aspirin on the neurohormonal function and hemodynamic response to captopril in heart failure patients. Between April 1999 and August 2000, 40 patients were randomized into four equal groups: 1) captopril, 2) aspirin, 3) captopril-aspirin: captopril was given alone on the first day, followed by aspirin on the remaining days, and 4) aspirin-captopril: aspirin was given alone on the first day, followed by captopril on the remaining days. Hemodynamic, norepinephrine and prostaglandin measurements were performed pre- and post-medication for 4 days. Captopril (50 mg) was given orally every 8 h and 300 mg aspirin was given on the first day, and 100 mg/day thereafter. In the captopril group and only on the first day of captopril-aspirin, captopril produced increases in cardiac index (2.1 ± 0.6 to 2.5 ± 0.5 l min-1 m-2, P<0.0001), and reduced peripheral vascular resistance (1980 ± 580 to 1545 ± 506 dyn s-1 cm-5/m², P<0.0001) and pulmonary wedge pressure (20 ± 4 to 15 ± 4 mmHg, P<0.0001). In contrast, aspirin alone or associated with captopril showed no significant hemodynamic changes. Norepinephrine decreased (P<0.02) only in the captopril group. Prostaglandin levels did not differ significantly among groups. Thus, aspirin compromises the short-term hemodynamic and neurohormonal effects of captopril in patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

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Simple reaction time (SRT) in response to visual stimuli can be influenced by many stimulus features. The speed and accuracy with which observers respond to a visual stimulus may be improved by prior knowledge about the stimulus location, which can be obtained by manipulating the spatial probability of the stimulus. However, when higher spatial probability is achieved by holding constant the stimulus location throughout successive trials, the resulting improvement in performance can also be due to local sensory facilitation caused by the recurrent spatial location of a visual target (position priming). The main objective of the present investigation was to quantitatively evaluate the modulation of SRT by the spatial probability structure of a visual stimulus. In two experiments the volunteers had to respond as quickly as possible to the visual target presented on a computer screen by pressing an optic key with the index finger of the dominant hand. Experiment 1 (N = 14) investigated how SRT changed as a function of both the different levels of spatial probability and the subject's explicit knowledge about the precise probability structure of visual stimulation. We found a gradual decrease in SRT with increasing spatial probability of a visual target regardless of the observer's previous knowledge concerning the spatial probability of the stimulus. Error rates, below 2%, were independent of the spatial probability structure of the visual stimulus, suggesting the absence of a speed-accuracy trade-off. Experiment 2 (N = 12) examined whether changes in SRT in response to a spatially recurrent visual target might be accounted for simply by sensory and temporally local facilitation. The findings indicated that the decrease in SRT brought about by a spatially recurrent target was associated with its spatial predictability, and could not be accounted for solely in terms of sensory priming.

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Pancreatic ß cell function and insulin sensitivity, analyzed by the homeostasis model assessment, before and after 24 weeks of insulin therapy were studied and correlated with the presence of autoantibodies against ß cells (islet cell and anti-glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies), in a group of 18 Brazilian lean adult non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) patients with oral hypoglycemic agent failure (OHAF). Median fasting plasma glucose before and after insulin treatment was 19.1 and 8.5 mmol/l, respectively (P < 0.001); median HbA1c was 11.7% before vs 7.2% after insulin treatment (P < 0.001). Forty-four percent of the patients were positive (Ab+) to at least one autoantibody. Fasting C-peptide levels were lower in Ab+ than Ab- patients, both before (Ab+: 0.16 ± 0.09 vs Ab-: 0.41 ± 0.35 nmol/l, P < 0.003) and after insulin treatment (Ab+: 0.22 ± 0.13 vs Ab-: 0.44 ± 0.24 nmol/l, P < 0.03). Improvement of Hß was seen in Ab- (median before: 7.3 vs after insulin therapy: 33.4%, P = 0.003) but not in Ab+ patients (median before: 6.6 vs after insulin therapy: 20.9%). These results show that the OHAF observed in the 18 NIDDM patients studied was due mainly to two major causes: autoantibodies and ß cell desensitization. Autoantibodies against ß cells could account for 44% of OHAF, but Ab- patients may still present ß cell function recovery, mainly after a period of ß cell rest with insulin therapy. However, the effects of ß cell function recovery on the restoration of the response to oral hypoglycemic agents need to be determined.

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To determine if radiocontrast impairs vascular relaxation of the renal artery, segments (4-5 mm in length) of canine renal artery were suspended in vitro in organ chambers to measure isometric force (95% O2/5% CO2, at 37ºC). Arterial segments with and without endothelium were placed at the optimal point of their length-tension relation and incubated with 10 µM indomethacin to prevent synthesis of endogenous prostanoids. The presence of nonionic radiocontrast (iohexol, Omnipaque 350, 1 ml in 25 ml control solution, 4% (v/v)) did not alter endothelium-dependent relaxation to acetylcholine in rings precontracted with both norepinephrine and prostaglandin F2alpha (N = 6). When the rings were precontracted with prostaglandin F2alpha, the presence of ionic contrast did not inhibit the relaxation of the arteries. However, in canine renal arteries contracted with norepinephrine, the presence of ionic radiocontrast (diatrizoate meglumine and diatrizoate sodium, MD-76, 1 ml in 25 ml control solution, 4% (v/v)) inhibited relaxation in response to acetylcholine, sodium nitroprusside (N = 6 in each group), and isoproterenol (N = 5; P < 0.05). Rings were relaxed less than 50% of norepinephrine contraction. Following removal of the contrast, vascular relaxation in response to the agonists returned to normal. These results indicate that ionic radiocontrast nonspecifically inhibits vasodilation (both cAMP-mediated and cGMP-mediated) of canine renal arteries contracted with norepinephrine. This reversible impairment of vasodilation could inhibit normal renal perfusion and act as a mechanism of renal failure following radiocontrast infusion. In the adopted experimental protocol the isoproterenol-induced relaxation of renal arteries precontracted with norepinephrine was more affected, suggesting a pivotal role of the cAMP system.

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The objective of the present study was to determine the relationship between nitric oxide synthases (NOS) and heart failure in cardiac tissue from patients with and without cardiac decompensation. Right atrial tissue was excised from patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <35% (N = 10), and from patients with CAD and LVEF >60% (N = 10) during cardiac surgery. NOS activity was measured by the conversion of L-[H³]-arginine to L-[H³]-citrulline. Gene expression was quantified by the competitive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Both endothelial NOS (eNOS) activity and expression were significantly reduced in failing hearts compared to non-failing hearts: 0.36 ± 0.18 vs 1.51 ± 0.31 pmol mg-1 min-1 (P < 0.0001) and 0.37 ± 0.08 vs 0.78 ± 0.09 relative cDNA absorbance at 320 nm (P < 0.0001), respectively. In contrast, inducible NOS (iNOS) activity and expression were significantly higher in failing hearts than in non-failing hearts: 4.00 ± 0.90 vs 1.54 ± 0.65 pmol mg-1 min-1 (P < 0.0001) and 2.19 ± 0.27 vs 1.43 ± 0.13 cDNA absorbance at 320 nm (P < 0.0001), respectively. We conclude that heart failure down-regulates both eNOS activity and expression in cardiac tissue from patients with LVEF <35%. In contrast, iNOS activity and expression are increased in failing hearts and may represent an alternative mechanism for nitric oxide production in heart failure due to ischemic disease.

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The relevance of the relationship between cardiac disease and depressive symptoms is well established. White matter hyperintensity, a bright signal area in the brain on T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans, has been separately associated with cardiovascular risk factors, cardiac disease and late-life depression. However, no study has directly investigated the association between heart failure, major depressive symptoms and the presence of hyperintensities. Using a visual assessment scale, we have investigated the frequency and severity of white matter hyperintensities identified by magnetic resonance imaging in eight patients with late-life depression and heart failure, ten patients with heart failure without depression, and fourteen healthy elderly volunteers. Since the frontal lobe has been the proposed site for the preferential location of white matter hyperintensities in patients with late-life depression, we focused our investigation specifically on this brain region. Although there were no significant group differences in white matter hyperintensities in the frontal region, a significant direct correlation emerged between the severity of frontal periventricular white matter hyperintensity and scores on the Hamilton scale for depression in the group with heart failure and depression (P = 0.016, controlled for the confounding influence of age). There were no significant findings in any other areas of the brain. This pattern of results adds support to a relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and depressive symptoms, and provides preliminary evidence that the presence of white matter hyperintensities specifically in frontal regions may contribute to the severity of depressive symptoms in cardiac disease.