Analysis and prediction of the critical current density across [001]-tilt YBa2Cu3O7- grain boundaries of arbitrary misorientation angles

A qualitative analysis of the expected dilatation strain field in the vicinity of an array of grain-boundary (GB) dislocations is presented. The analysis provides a basis for the prediction of the critical current densities (jc) across low-angle YBa2Cu3O7- (YBCO) GBs as a function of their energy. The introduction of the GB energy allows the extension of the analysis to high-angle GBs using established models which predict the GB energy as a function of misorientation angle. The results are compared to published data for jc across [001]-tilt YBCO GBs for the full range of misorientations, showing a good fit. Since the GB energy is directly related to the GB structure, the analysis may allow a generalization of the scaling behavior of jc with the GB energy. © 1995 The American Physical Society.

Bacterial kinetics-controlled shape-directed biosynthesis of silver nanoplates using Morganella psychrotolerans

We show for the first time that by controlling the growth kinetics of Morganella psychrotolerans, a silver-resistant psychrophilic bacterium, the shape anisotropy of silver nanoparticles can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that there has been no report that demonstrates a control over shape of Ag nanoparticles by controlling the growth kinetics of bacteria during biological synthesis. Additionally, we have for the first time performed electrochemistry experiments on bacterial cells after exposing them to Ag(+) ions, which provide significant new insights about mechanistic aspects of Ag reduction by bacteria. The possibility to achieve nanoparticle shape control by using a "green" biosynthesis approach is expected to open up new exciting avenues for eco-friendly, large-scale, and economically viable shape-controlled synthesis of nanomaterials.

Investigation of mediated oxidation of ascorbic acid by ferrocenemethanol using large-amplitude fourier transformed ac voltammetry under quasi-reversible electron-transfer conditions at an indium tin oxide electrode

The ability of the technique of large-amplitude Fourier transformed (FT) ac voltammetry to facilitate the quantitative evaluation of electrode processes involving electron transfer and catalytically coupled chemical reactions has been evaluated. Predictions derived on the basis of detailed simulations imply that the rate of electron transfer is crucial, as confirmed by studies on the ferrocenemethanol (FcMeOH)-mediated electrocatalytic oxidation of ascorbic acid. Thus, at glassy carbon, gold, and boron-doped diamond electrodes, the introduction of the coupled electrocatalytic reaction, while producing significantly enhanced dc currents, does not affect the ac harmonics. This outcome is as expected if the FcMeOH (0/+) process remains fully reversible in the presence of ascorbic acid. In contrast, the ac harmonic components available from FT-ac voltammetry are predicted to be highly sensitive to the homogeneous kinetics when an electrocatalytic reaction is coupled to a quasi-reversible electron-transfer process. The required quasi-reversible scenario is available at an indium tin oxide electrode. Consequently, reversible potential, heterogeneous charge-transfer rate constant, and charge-transfer coefficient values of 0.19 V vs Ag/AgCl, 0.006 cm s (-1) and 0.55, respectively, along with a second-order homogeneous chemical rate constant of 2500 M (-1) s (-1) for the rate-determining step in the catalytic reaction were determined by comparison of simulated responses and experimental voltammograms derived from the dc and first to fourth ac harmonic components generated at an indium tin oxide electrode. The theoretical concepts derived for large-amplitude FT ac voltammetry are believed to be applicable to a wide range of important solution-based mediated electrocatalytic reactions.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Three-dimensional modeling of steel portal frame buildings

The realistic strength and deflection behavior of industrial and commercial steel portal frame buildings are understood only if the effects of rigidity of end frames and profiled steel claddings are included. The conventional designs ignore these effects and are very much based on idealized two-dimensional (2D) frame behavior. Full-scale tests of a 1212 m steel portal frame building under a range of design load cases indicated that the observed deflections and bending moments in the portal frame were considerably different from those obtained from a 2D analysis of frames ignoring these effects. Three-dimensional (3D) analyses of the same building, including the effects of end frames and cladding, were carried out, and the results agreed well with full-scale test results. Results clearly indicated the need for such an analysis and for testing to study the true behavior of steel portal frame buildings. It is expected that such a 3D analysis will lead to lighter steel frames as the maximum moments and deflections are reduced.

The 'two strikes' rule on the remuneration report : threats and opportunities for boards

This article examines the fast moving debate on the law and policy surrounding shareholder voting on their companies’ remuneration report, at the AGM. Recently, Australia has moved from the ‘non-binding’ vote provided to shareholders, to the more prescriptive ‘two strikes rule’; that is, two negative shareholder resolutions after 1 July 2011 may result in a board re-election. While much commentary has focused on the potential threats— impacts on remuneration reports and the potential costs to the company — we discuss another potential consequence: an opportunity for board recruitment. At a time when companies are also expected to comment on their diversity policies, planning for a threatened ‘spill’ creates an opportunity for board composition planning and succession. The arguments presented are also placed in the context of the UK debate, where recent proposals advocate for wider stakeholder engagement and diversity in remuneration planning.

Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND) : case of Bangkok metropolitan region (BMR), Thailand an eco-efficiency modelling approach

Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is the centre for various major activities in Thailand including political, industry, agriculture, and commerce. Consequently, the BMR is the highest and most densely populated area in Thailand. Thus, the demand for houses in the BMR is also the largest, especially in subdivision developments. For these reasons, the subdivision development in the BMR has increased substantially in the past 20 years and generated large numbers of subdivision developments (AREA, 2009; Kridakorn Na Ayutthaya & Tochaiwat, 2010). However, this dramatic growth of subdivision development has caused several problems including unsustainable development, especially for subdivision neighbourhoods, in the BMR. There have been rating tools that encourage the sustainability of neighbourhood design in subdivision development, but they still have practical problems. Such rating tools do not cover the scale of the development entirely; and they concentrate more on the social and environmental conservation aspects, which have not been totally accepted by the developers (Boonprakub, 2011; Tongcumpou & Harvey, 1994). These factors strongly confirm the need for an appropriate rating tool for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design in the BMR. To improve level of acceptance from all stakeholders in subdivision developments industry, the new rating tool should be developed based on an approach that unites the social, environmental, and economic approaches, such as eco-efficiency principle. Eco-efficiency is the sustainability indicator introduced by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) since 1992. The eco-efficiency is defined as the ratio of the product or service value according to its environmental impact (Lehni & Pepper, 2000; Sorvari et al., 2009). Eco-efficiency indicator is concerned to the business, while simultaneously, is concerned with to social and the environment impact. This study aims to develop a new rating tool named "Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND)". The RSSND methodology is developed by a combination of literature reviews, field surveys, the eco-efficiency model development, trial-and-error technique, and the tool validation process. All required data has been collected by the field surveys from July to November 2010. The ecoefficiency model is a combination of three different mathematical models; the neighbourhood property price (NPP) model, the neighbourhood development cost (NDC) model, and the neighbourhood occupancy cost (NOC) model which are attributable to the neighbourhood subdivision design. The NPP model is formulated by hedonic price model approach, while the NDC model and NOC model are formulated by the multiple regression analysis approach. The trial-and-error technique is adopted for simplifying the complex mathematic eco-efficiency model to a user-friendly rating tool format. Credibility of the RSSND has been validated by using both rated and non-rated of eight subdivisions. It is expected to meet the requirements of all stakeholders which support the social activities of the residents, maintain the environmental condition of the development and surrounding areas, and meet the economic requirements of the developers.

The valuation accuracy of multiples in mergers and acquisitions, and their association with firm misvaluation

This study explores the accuracy and valuation implications of the application of a comprehensive list of equity multiples in the takeover context. Motivating the study is the prevalent use of equity multiples in practice, the observed long-run underperformance of acquirers following takeovers, and the scarcity of multiplesbased research in the merger and acquisition setting. In exploring the application of equity multiples in this context three research questions are addressed: (1) how accurate are equity multiples (RQ1); which equity multiples are more accurate in valuing the firm (RQ2); and which equity multiples are associated with greater misvaluation of the firm (RQ3). Following a comprehensive review of the extant multiples-based literature it is hypothesised that the accuracy of multiples in estimating stock market prices in the takeover context will rank as follows (from best to worst): (1) forecasted earnings multiples, (2) multiples closer to bottom line earnings, (3) multiples based on Net Cash Flow from Operations (NCFO) and trading revenue. The relative inaccuracies in multiples are expected to flow through to equity misvaluation (as measured by the ratio of estimated market capitalisation to residual income value, or P/V). Accordingly, it is hypothesised that greater overvaluation will be exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue, NCFO, Book Value (BV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) versus multiples based on bottom line earnings; and that multiples based on Intrinsic Value will display the least overvaluation. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 147 acquirers and 129 targets involved in Australian takeover transactions announced between 1990 and 2005. The results show that first, the majority of computed multiples examined exhibit valuation errors within 30 percent of stock market values. Second, and consistent with expectations, the results provide support for the superiority of multiples based on forecasted earnings in valuing targets and acquirers engaged in takeover transactions. Although a gradual improvement in estimating stock market values is not entirely evident when moving down the Income Statement, historical earnings multiples perform better than multiples based on Trading Revenue or NCFO. Third, while multiples based on forecasted earnings have the highest valuation accuracy they, along with Trading Revenue multiples for targets, produce the most overvalued valuations for acquirers and targets. Consistent with predictions, greater overvaluation is exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue for targets, and NCFO and EBITDA for both acquirers and targets. Finally, as expected, multiples based Intrinsic Value (along with BV) are associated with the least overvaluation. Given the widespread usage of valuation multiples in takeover contexts these findings offer a unique insight into their relative effectiveness. Importantly, the findings add to the growing body of valuation accuracy literature, especially within Australia, and should assist market participants to better understand the relative accuracy and misvaluation consequences of various equity multiples used in takeover documentation and assist them in subsequent investment decision making.

A Sustainable Community for Older People : Case Studies of Green Retirement Villages in Australia

In Australia, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over reached 13.5% in 2010 and is expected to increase steadily to around 20% by the year 2056 [Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 2010], creating what has been regarded as a looming crisis in how to house and care for older people. As a viable accommodation option, the retirement village is widely accepted as a means of promoting and enhancing independence, choice and quality of life for older people. Recent research by Barker (2010) indicates that the current and potential residents of retirement villages are generally very conscious of resource consumption and would like their residences and community to be more sustainable. The aim of this study was to understand the perception of older people toward sustainability ideas and identify the sustainable practices involved in retirement villages to improve the wellbeing of residents. Multiple research methods, including content analysis, questionnaire survey, interviews and case studies were conducted for the research purpose. The results indicate that most retirement village residents understand and recognize the importance of sustainability in their lifestyle. However, their sustainability requirements need to be supported and enhanced by the provision of affordable sustainability features. Additionally, many retirement village developers and operators realize the importance of providing a sustainable retirement community for their residents, and that a sustainable retirement village (that is environmental-friendly, affordable, and improves social engagement) can be achieved through the consideration of project planning, design, construction, and operations throughout the project life cycle. The clear shift from healthcare to lifestyle-focused services in the recent development of retirement villages together with the increasing number of aged people moving into retirement villages (Simpson and Cheney, 2007) has raised awareness of the need for the retirement village industry to provide a sustainable community for older people to improve their life quality after retirement. This is the first critical study of sustainable development in the retirement village industry and its potential in addressing the housing needs of older people, providing a contribution towards improving the life quality of older people and with direct and immediate significance to the community as a whole.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Death of a five year old from meningococcal disease in Darwin : a case of unprecedented public alarm

On Saturday, 25 October 1997 a five year old boy died in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of Royal Darwin Hospital (RDH) from meningococcal disease. While disease is expected throughout Australia during the late winter and early spring months, and deaths occur, this case was remarkable in the Northern Territory with respect to the unprecedented public response to media reports of the death.

Validation of the interRAI Cognitive Performance Scale against independent clinical diagnosis and the Mini-Mental State Examination in older hospitalized patients

Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the interRAI Acute Care (AC) Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS2) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), against independent clinical diagnosis for detecting dementia in older hospitalized patients. Design, Setting, and Participants The study was part of a prospective observational cohort study of patients aged ≥70 years admitted to four acute hospitals in Queensland, Australia, between 2008 and 2010. Recruitment was consecutive and patients expected to remain in hospital for ≥48 hours were eligible to participate. Data for 462 patients were available for this study. Measurements Trained research nurses completed comprehensive geriatric assessments and administered the interRAI AC and MMSE to patients. Two physicians independently reviewed patients’ medical records and assessments to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Indicators of diagnostic accuracy included sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and areas under receiver (AUC) operating characteristic curves. Results 85 patients (18.4%) were considered to have dementia according to independent clinical diagnosis. The sensitivity of the CPS2 [0.68 (95%CI: 0.58–0.77)] was not statistically different to the MMSE [0.75 (0.64–0.83)] in predicting physician diagnosed dementia. The AUCs for the 2 instruments were also not statistically different: CPS2 AUC = 0.83 (95%CI: 0.78–0.89) and MMSE AUC = 0.87 (95%CI: 0.83–0.91), while the CPS2 demonstrated higher specificity [0.92 95%CI: 0.89–0.95)] than the MMSE [0.82 (0.77–0.85)]. Agreement between the CPS2 and clinical diagnosis was substantial (87.4%; κ=0.61). Conclusion The CPS2 appears to be a reliable screening tool for assessing cognitive impairment in acutely unwell older hospitalized patients. These findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting the utility of the interRAI AC, within which the CPS2 is embedded. The interRAI AC offers the advantage of being able to accurately screen for both dementia and delirium without the need to use additional assessments, thus increasing assessment efficiency.

Effective punishment experiences : the need for a more comprehensive approach to conceptualising behavioural punishers and reinforcers in a road safety context

Determining what consequences are likely to serve as effective punishment for any given behaviour is a complex task. This chapter focuses specifically on illegal road user behaviours and the mechanisms used to punish and deter them. Traffic law enforcement has traditionally used the threat and/or receipt of legal sanctions and penalties to deter illegal and risky behaviours. This process represents the use of positive punishment, one of the key behaviour modification mechanisms. Behaviour modification principles describe four types of reinforcers: positive and negative punishments and positive and negative reinforcements. The terms ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ are not used in an evaluative sense here. Rather, they represent the presence (positive) or absence (negative) of stimuli to promote behaviour change. Punishments aim to inhibit behaviour and reinforcements aim to encourage it. This chapter describes a variety of punishments and reinforcements that have been and could be used to modify illegal road user behaviours. In doing so, it draws on several theoretical perspectives that have defined behavioural reinforcement and punishment in different ways. Historically, the main theoretical approach used to deter risky road use has been classical deterrence theory which has focussed on the perceived certainty, severity and swiftness of penalties. Stafford and Warr (1993) extended the traditional deterrence principles to include the positive reinforcement concept of punishment avoidance. Evidence of the association between punishment avoidance experiences and behaviour has been established for a number of risky road user behaviours including drink driving, unlicensed driving, and speeding. We chose a novel way of assessing punishment avoidance by specifying two sub-constructs (detection evasion and punishment evasion). Another theorist, Akers, described the idea of competing reinforcers, termed differential reinforcement, within social learning theory (1977). Differential reinforcement describes a balance of reinforcements and punishments as influential on behaviour. This chapter describes comprehensive way of conceptualising a broad range of reinforcement and punishment concepts, consistent with Akers’ differential reinforcement concept, within a behaviour modification framework that incorporates deterrence principles. The efficacy of three theoretical perspectives to explain self-reported speeding among a sample of 833 Australian car drivers was examined. Results demonstrated that a broad range of variables predicted speeding including personal experiences of evading detection and punishment for speeding, intrinsic sensations, practical benefits expected from speeding, and an absence of punishing effects from being caught. Not surprisingly, being younger was also significantly related to more frequent speeding, although in a regression analysis, gender did not retain a significant influence once all punishment and reinforcement variables were entered. The implications for speed management, as well as road user behaviour modification more generally, are discussed in light of these findings. Overall, the findings reported in this chapter suggest that a more comprehensive approach is required to manage the behaviour of road users which does not rely solely on traditional legal penalties and sanctions.

Legal Reasoning in Environmental Law : a Study of Structure, Form and Language

This book analyses the structure, form and language of a selected number of international and national legal instruments and reviews how an illustrative range of international and national judicial institutions have responded to the issues before them and the processes of legal reasoning engaged by them in reaching their decisions. This involves a very detailed discussion of these primary sources of international and national environmental law with a view to determining their jurisprudential architecture and the processes of reasoning expected of those responsible for implementing these architectural arrangements. This book is concerned not with the effectiveness or the quality of an environmental legal system but only with its jurisprudential characteristics and their associated processes of legal reasoning.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.