Effects of light and temperature on isoprene emission at different leaf developmental stages of eschweilera coriacea in central Amazon

Isoprene emission from plants accounts for about one third of annual global volatile organic compound emissions. The largest source of isoprene for the global atmosphere is the Amazon Basin. This study aimed to identify and quantify the isoprene emission and photosynthesis at different levels of light intensity and leaf temperature, in three phenological phases (young mature leaf, old mature leaf and senescent leaf) of Eschweilera coriacea (Matamatá verdadeira), the species with the widest distribution in the central Amazon. In situ photosynthesis and isoprene emission measurements showed that young mature leaf had the highest rates at all light intensities and leaf temperatures. Additionally, it was observed that isoprene emission capacity (Es) changed considerably over different leaf ages. This suggests that aging leads to a reduction of both leaf photosynthetic activity and isoprene production and emission. The algorithm of Guenther et al. (1999) provided good fits to the data when incident light was varied, however differences among E S of all leaf ages influenced on quantic yield predicted by model. When leaf temperature was varied, algorithm prediction was not satisfactory for temperature higher than ~40 °C; this could be because our data did not show isoprene temperature optimum up to 45 °C. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of the isoprene functional role in protecting plants from high temperatures and highlight the need to include leaf phenology effects in isoprene emission models.

Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

On the identification of monetary (and other) shocks

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we construct a DSGE model which spells out explicitly the instrumentation of monetary policy. The interest rate is determined every period depending on the supply and demand for reserves which in turn are affected by fundamental shocks: unforeseeable changes in cash withdrawal, autonomous factors, technology and government spending. Unexpected changes in the monetary conditions of the economy are interpreted as monetary shocks. We show that these monetary shocks have the usual effects on economic activity without the need of imposing additional frictions as limited participation in asset markets or sticky prices. Second, we show that this view of monetary policy may have important consequences for empirical research. In the model, the contemporaneous correlations between interest rates, prices and output are due to the simultaneous effect of all fundamental shocks. We provide an example where these contemporaneous correlations may be misinterpreted as a Taylor rule. In addition, we use the sign of the impact responses of all shocks on output, prices and interest rates derived from the model to identify the sources of shocks in the data.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Occurrence and bioaccumulation study of PCDD and PCDF from mineral feed additives

Occurrence of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) was evaluated in sepiolite as a widely employed binder and anti-caking agent for animal feed. Also, naturally contaminated kaolinitic clay was used for comparative purposes. Since sepiolite shows remarkable adsorption properties, particular interest was paid to the extraction steps as they become critical for the final determination of these pollutants in such matrixes. Furthermore, classical Soxhlet extraction using different extracting strategies as well as acid treatment were carried out with simultaneous liquid-liquid extraction. Results obtained depended on the extraction procedure applied. Acid treatment or Soxhlet extraction using a mixture of toluene:ethanol as solvent allowed to reach the minimum requirements of recovery rates. However, Soxhlet extraction using a mixture cyclohexane:toluene as extracting solvent did not allow to comply with minimum specifications for recovery. Significant differences were obtained in TEQ units when acid treatment was applied in comparison to Soxhlet extraction. This fact can be explained because the use of drastic acid conditions allows removing strongly adsorbed analytes which can be uniquely extracted after a total destruction of the crystalline structure of sepiolite. On the contrary, Soxhlet extraction was not able to destroy the structure of sepiolite and as a consequence the PCDDs/Fs were strongly adsorbed in the internal structure of the mineral. From biological point of view the availability of these toxicants constitutes a critical aspect playing an important role in the final decision choosing particular analytical procedures. Then, acid conditions in the digestive tract should be taken into account. In this scenario, a bioaccumulation study was conducted to evaluate the transference of PCDDs/PCDFs from the sepiolite into the animal tissues when fed with feed containing sepiolite. To this end, chickens were used as a model to examine the bioavailability of PCDDs/PCDFs. Four groups of chickens were exposed through their diet to a control feed, feed with 3% w/w sepiolite as additive, feed contaminated with PCDDs/PCDFs at concentration around 2.8 pg WHO-TEQ/g and feed with 2% of a contaminated kaolinitic clay (460 pg TEQ/g mineral). Livers of the four studied groups were analyzed throughout the exposure period. Results of this trial showed that the performance of broilers was not affected by the presence of dioxins at levels tested, and chickens did not show any abnormal behaviour. Dioxins intentionally added to the diet were absorbed and accumulated in the liver in a significant manner, whereas the PCDDs/Fs from sepiolite were not available for chickens since livers from broilers fed 3% sepiolite presented similar WHO-TEQ values than those from broilers fed control diet.

Privatization and competition in the delivery of local services: An empirical examination of the dual market hypothesis

This paper empirically analyses the hypothesis of the existence of a dual market for contracts in local services. Large firms that operate on a national basis control the contracts for delivery in the most populated and/or urban municipalities, whereas small firms that operate at a local level have the contracts in the least populated and/or rural municipalities. The dual market implies the high concentration and dominance of major firms in large municipalities, and local monopolies in the smaller ones. This market structure is harmful to competition for the market as the effective number of competitors is low across all municipalities. Thus, it damages the likelihood of obtaining cost savings from privatization.

Ear acupuncture and fMRI: a pilot study for assessing the specificity of auricular points.

In recent years research explored different acupuncture stimulation techniques but interest has focused primarily on somatic acupuncture and on a limited number of acupoints. As regards ear Acupuncture (EA) there is still some criticism about the clinical specificity of auricular points/areas representing organs or structures of the body. The aim of this study was to verify through (Functional magnetic resonance imaging) fMRI the hypothesis of EA point specificity using two auricular points having different topographical locations and clinical significance. Six healthy volunteers underwent two experimental fMRI sessions: the first was dedicated to the stimulation of Thumb Auricular Acupoint (TAA) and the second to the stimulation of Brain Stem Auricular Acupoint (BSAA). The stimulation of the needle placed in the TAA of the left ear produced an increase in activation bilaterally in the parietal operculum, region of the secondary somatosensory area SII. Stimulation of the needle placed in the BSAA of the left ear showed a pattern that largely overlapped regions belonging to the pain matrix, as shown to be involved in previous somatic acupuncture studies but with local differences in the left amygdala, anterior cingulate cortex, and cerebellum. The differences in activation patterns between TAA and BSAA stimulation support the specificity of the two acupoints. Moreover, the peculiarity of the regions involved in BSAA stimulation compared to those involved in the pain matrix, is in accordance with the therapeutic indications of this acupoint that include head pain, dizziness and vertigo. Our results provide preliminary evidence on the specificity of two auricular acupoints; further research is warranted by means of fMRI both in healthy volunteers and in patients carrying neurological/psychiatric syndromes.

Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilibrium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have important implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.

On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of macro-liquidity shocks on the returns of UK stock portfolios sorted on the basis of a series of micro-liquidity measures. The macro-liquidity shocks are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in futures contracts on the 3-month LIBOR during the period June 1999- December 2009. We report definitive evidence that these shocks are transmitted to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with most liquid stocks playing a very active role. Our results emphatically document that the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign during the recent financial crisis; the standard inverse relationship between interest rate surprises and portfolios’ returns before the crisis has turned into positive during the crisis. This finding confirms the inability of interest rate cuts to boost returns in the shortrun during the crisis, because these were perceived by market participants as a signal of a deteriorating economic outlook.

Sparse regularization for fiber ODF reconstruction: from the suboptimality of ℓ2 and ℓ1 priors to ℓ0.

Diffusion MRI is a well established imaging modality providing a powerful way to probe the structure of the white matter non-invasively. Despite its potential, the intrinsic long scan times of these sequences have hampered their use in clinical practice. For this reason, a large variety of methods have been recently proposed to shorten the acquisition times. Among them, spherical deconvolution approaches have gained a lot of interest for their ability to reliably recover the intra-voxel fiber configuration with a relatively small number of data samples. To overcome the intrinsic instabilities of deconvolution, these methods use regularization schemes generally based on the assumption that the fiber orientation distribution (FOD) to be recovered in each voxel is sparse. The well known Constrained Spherical Deconvolution (CSD) approach resorts to Tikhonov regularization, based on an ℓ(2)-norm prior, which promotes a weak version of sparsity. Also, in the last few years compressed sensing has been advocated to further accelerate the acquisitions and ℓ(1)-norm minimization is generally employed as a means to promote sparsity in the recovered FODs. In this paper, we provide evidence that the use of an ℓ(1)-norm prior to regularize this class of problems is somewhat inconsistent with the fact that the fiber compartments all sum up to unity. To overcome this ℓ(1) inconsistency while simultaneously exploiting sparsity more optimally than through an ℓ(2) prior, we reformulate the reconstruction problem as a constrained formulation between a data term and a sparsity prior consisting in an explicit bound on the ℓ(0)norm of the FOD, i.e. on the number of fibers. The method has been tested both on synthetic and real data. Experimental results show that the proposed ℓ(0) formulation significantly reduces modeling errors compared to the state-of-the-art ℓ(2) and ℓ(1) regularization approaches.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Older persons' perceptions of general practitioner or specialist primary care physicians : same point of view?

BACKGROUND: Identification of a Primary Care Physician (PCP) by older patients is considered as essential for the coordination of care, but the extent to which identified PCPs are general practitioners or specialists is unknown. This study described older patients' experiences with their PCP and tested the hypothesis of differences between patients who identify a specialist as their PCP (SP PCP) and those who turn to a general practitioner (GP PCP). METHODS: In 2012, a cross-sectional postal survey on care was conducted in the 68+ year old population of the canton of Vaud. Data was provided by 2,276 participants in the ongoing Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65+), a study of those born between 1934 and 1943, and by 998 persons from an additional sample drawn to include the population outside of Lausanne or born before 1934. RESULTS: Participants expressed favourable perceptions, at rates exceeding 75% for most items. However, only 38% to 51% responded positively for out-of-hours availability, easy access and at home visits, likelihood of prescribing expensive medication if needed, and doctors' awareness of over-the-counter drugs. 12.0% had an SP PCP, in 95.9% specialised in a discipline implying training in internal medicine. Bivariate and multivariate analyses did not result in significant differences between GP and SP PCPs regarding perceptions of accessibility/availability, doctor-patient relationship, information and continuity of care, prevention, spontaneous use of the emergency department or ambulatory care utilisation. CONCLUSIONS: Experiences of old patients were mostly positive despite some lack in reported hearing, memory testing, and colorectal cancer screening. We found no differences between GP and SP PCP groups.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Detecting epistasis with restricted response patterns in pairs of biallelic loci.

Well-established examples of genetic epistasis between a pair of loci typically show characteristic patterns of phenotypic distributions in joint genotype tables. However, inferring epistasis given such data is difficult due to the lack of power in commonly used approaches, which decompose the epistatic patterns into main plus interaction effects followed by testing the interaction term. Testing additive-only or all terms may have more power, but they are sensitive to nonepistatic patterns. Alternatively, the epistatic patterns of interest can be enumerated and the best matching one is found by searching through the possibilities. Although this approach requires multiple testing correction over possible patterns, each pattern can be fitted with a regression model with just one degree of freedom and thus the overall power can still be high, if the number of possible patterns is limited. Here we compare the power of the linear decomposition and pattern search methods, by applying them to simulated data generated under several patterns of joint genotype effects with simple biological interpretations. Interaction-only tests are the least powerful; while pattern search approach is the most powerful if the range of possibilities is restricted, but still includes the true pattern.