Changes of mind in decision-making.

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on evidence and the expected costs and benefits associated with the outcome. Progress in a variety of fields has led to a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that evaluate evidence and reach a decision. Several formalisms propose that a representation of noisy evidence is evaluated against a criterion to produce a decision. Without additional evidence, however, these formalisms fail to explain why a decision-maker would change their mind. Here we extend a model, developed to account for both the timing and the accuracy of the initial decision, to explain subsequent changes of mind. Subjects made decisions about a noisy visual stimulus, which they indicated by moving a handle. Although they received no additional information after initiating their movement, their hand trajectories betrayed a change of mind in some trials. We propose that noisy evidence is accumulated over time until it reaches a criterion level, or bound, which determines the initial decision, and that the brain exploits information that is in the processing pipeline when the initial decision is made to subsequently either reverse or reaffirm the initial decision. The model explains both the frequency of changes of mind as well as their dependence on both task difficulty and whether the initial decision was accurate or erroneous. The theoretical and experimental findings advance the understanding of decision-making to the highly flexible and cognitive acts of vacillation and self-correction.

Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

A biogeographic assessment of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary: a review of boundary expansion concepts for NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program

The priority management goal of the National Marine Sanctuaries Program (NMSP) is to protect marine ecosystems and biodiversity. This goal requires an understanding of broad-scale ecological relationships and linkages between marine resources and physical oceanography to support an ecosystem management approach. The Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) is currently reviewing its management plan and investigating boundary expansion. A management plan study area (henceforth, Study Area) was described that extends from the current boundary north to the mainland, and extends north to Point Sal and south to Point Dume. Six additional boundary concepts were developed that vary in area and include the majority of the Study Area. The NMSP and CINMS partnered with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Biogeography Team to conduct a biogeographic assessment to characterize marine resources and oceanographic patterns within and adjacent to the sanctuary. This assessment includes a suite of quantitative spatial and statistical analyses that characterize biological and oceanographic patterns in the marine region from Point Sal to the U.S.-Mexico border. These data were analyzed using an index which evaluates an ecological “cost-benefit” within the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. The sanctuary resides in a dynamic setting where two oceanographic regimes meet. Cold northern waters mix with warm southern waters around the Channel Islands creating an area of transition that strongly influences the regions oceanography. In turn, these processes drive the biological distributions within the region. This assessment analyzes bathymetry, benthic substrate, bathymetric life-zones, sea surface temperature, primary production, currents, submerged aquatic vegetation, and kelp in the context of broad-scale patterns and relative to the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. Boundary cost-benefit results for these parameters were variable due to their dynamic nature; however, when analyzed in composite the Study Area and Boundary Concept 2 were considered the most favorable. Biological data were collected from numerous resource agencies and university scientists for this assessment. Fish and invertebrate trawl data were used to characterize community structure. Habitat suitability models were developed for 15 species of macroinvertebrates and 11 species of fish that have significant ecological, commercial, or recreational importance in the region and general patterns of ichthyoplankton distribution are described. Six surveys of ship and plane at-sea surveys were used to model marine bird diversity from Point Arena to the U.S.-Mexico border. Additional surveys were utilized to estimate density and colony counts for nine bird species. Critical habitat for western snowy plover and the location of California least tern breeding pairs were also analyzed. At-sea surveys were also used to describe the distribution of 14 species of cetaceans and five species of pinnipeds. Boundary concept cost-benefit indices revealed that Boundary Concept 2 and the Study Area were most favorable for the majority of the species-specific analyses. Boundary Concept 3 was most favorable for bird diversity across the region. Inadequate spatial resolution for fish and invertebrate community data and incompatible sampling effort information for bird and mammal data precluded boundary cost-benefit analysis.