Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

A safety evaluation of genetically modified feedstuffs for livestock production; the fate of transgenic DNA and proteins

dTwo genetic constructs used to confer improved agronomic characteristics, namely herbicide tolerance (HT) in maize and soyabean and insect resistance (Bt) in maize, are considered in respect of feeding to farm livestock, animal performance and the nutritional value and safety of animal products. A review of nucleic acid (DNA) and protein digestion in farm livestock concludes that the frequency of intact transgenic DNA and proteins of GM and non-GM crops being absorbed is minimal/non existent, although there is some evidence of the presence of short fragments of rubisco DNA of non-GM soya in animal tissues. It has been established that feed processing (especially heat) prior to feeding causes significant disruption of plant DNA. Studies with ruminant and non-ruminant farm livestock offered GM feeds demonstrated that animal performance and product composition are unaffected and that there is no evidence of transgenic DNA or proteins of current GM in the products of animals consuming such feeds. On this evidence, current HT and Bt constructs represent no threat to the health of animals, or humans consuming the products of such animals. However as new GM constructs become available it will be necessary to subject these to rigorous evaluation.

The survival advantage of milk and dairy consumption: An overview of evidence from cohort studies of vascular diseases, diabetes and cancer

Objectives: To conduct it detailed evaluation, with meta-analyses, of the published evidence on milk and dairy consumption and the incidence of vascular diseases and diabetes. Also to summarise the evidence on milk and dairy consumption and cancer reported by the World Cancer Research Fund and then to consider the relevance of milk and dairy consumption to survival in the UK, a typical Western community. Finally, published evidence on relationships with whole milk and fat-reduced milks was examined. Methods: Prospective cohort studies of vascular disease and diabetes with baseline data on milk or dairy consumption and a relevant disease outcome were identified by searching MEDLINE, and reference lists in the relevant published reports. Meta-analyses of relationships in these reports were conducted. The likely effect of milk and dairy consumption on survival was then considered, taking into account the results of published overviews of relationships of these foods with cancer. Results: From meta-analysis of 15 studies the relative risk of stroke and/or heart disease in subjects with high milk or dairy consumption was 0.84 (95% CI 0.76, 0,93) and 0.79 (0.75, 0.82) respectively, relative to the risk in those with low consumption. Four studies reported incident diabetes as an outcome, and the relative risk in the Subjects with the highest intake of milk or diary foods was 0.92 (0.86, 0.97). Conclusions: Set against the proportion of total deaths attributable to the life-threatening diseases in the UK, vascular disease, diabetes and cancer, the results of meta-analyses provide evidence of an overall survival advantage from the consumption of milk and dairy foods.

A comparative evaluation of functions for partitioning nitrogen and amino acid intake between maintenance and growth in broilers

The results from three types of study with broilers, namely nitrogen (N) balance, bioassays and growth experiments, provided the data used herein. Sets of data on N balance and protein accretion (bioassay studies) were used to assess the ability of the monomolecular equation to describe the relationship between (i) N balance and amino acid (AA) intake and (ii) protein accretion and AA intake. The model estimated the levels of isoleucine, lysine, valine, threonine, methionine, total sulphur AAs and tryptophan resulting in zero balance to be 58, 59, 80, 96, 23, 85 and 32 mg/kg live weight (LW)/day, respectively. These estimates show good agreement with those obtained in previous studies. For the growth experiments, four models, specifically re-parameterized for analysing energy balance data, were evaluated for their ability to determine crude protein (CP) intake at maintenance and efficiency of utilization of CP intake for producing gain. They were: a straight line, two equations representing diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola) and one equation describing smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflexion (Gompertz). The estimates of CP requirement for maintenance and efficiency of utilization of CP intake for producing gain varied from 5.4 to 5.9 g/kg LW/day and 0.60 to 0.76, respectively, depending on the models.

A comparative evaluation of functions for the analysis of growth in male broilers

Data from six studies with male broilers fed diets covering a wide range of energy and protein were used in the current two analyses. In the first analysis, five models, specifically re-parameterized for analysing energy balance data, were evaluated for their ability to determine metabolizable energy intake at maintenance and efficiency of utilization of metabolizable energy intake for producing gain. In addition to the straight line, two types of functional form were used. They were forms describing (i) diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola) and (ii) sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflection (Gompertz and logistic). These models determined metabolizable energy requirement for maintenance to be in the range 437-573 kJ/kg of body weight/day depending on the model. The values determined for average net energy requirement for body weight gain varied from 7(.)9 to 11(.)2 kJ/g of body weight. These values show good agreement with previous studies. In the second analysis, three types of function were assessed as candidates for describing the relationship between body weight and cumulative metabolizable energy intake. The functions used were: (a) monomolecular (diminishing returns behaviour), (b) Gompertz (smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflection) and (c) Lopez, France and Richards (diminishing returns and sigmoidal behaviour with a variable point of inflection). The results of this analysis demonstrated that equations capable of mimicking the law of diminishing returns describe accurately the relationship between body weight and cumulative metabolizable energy intake in broilers.

Evaluation of PCR to detect Theileria parva in field-collected tick and bovine samples in Tanzania

The ability of PCR to detect infections of Theileria parva, the cause of East Coast Fever, in field-collected tick and bovine samples from Tanzania was evaluated. PCR-detected infection prevalence was high (15/20, 75%) in unfed adult Rhipicephalus appendiculatus ticks that fed as nymphs on an acutely-infected calf, but low (22/836, 2.6%) in unfed adult R. appendiculatus collected from field sites in Tanzania. Tick infection prevalence was comparable to that in previous studies that used salivary gland staining to detect T parva infection in field-collected host-seeking ticks. Of 282 naturally-exposed zebu calves, seven had PCR-positive buffy coat samples prior to detection of Theileria spp. parasites in stained huffy coat cells or lymph node biopsies. Evidence of Theileria spp. infections was detected in stained smears of lymph node biopsies from 109 calves (38.6%) and huffy coat samples from 81 (28.7%), while huffy coat samples from 66 (23.4%) were PCR-positive for T parva. Implications of these findings for the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of a Bayesian method of dose escalation based on bivariate binary responses

Recently, various approaches have been suggested for dose escalation studies based on observations of both undesirable events and evidence of therapeutic benefit. This article concerns a Bayesian approach to dose escalation that requires the user to make numerous design decisions relating to the number of doses to make available, the choice of the prior distribution, the imposition of safety constraints and stopping rules, and the criteria by which the design is to be optimized. Results are presented of a substantial simulation study conducted to investigate the influence of some of these factors on the safety and the accuracy of the procedure with a view toward providing general guidance for investigators conducting such studies. The Bayesian procedures evaluated use logistic regression to model the two responses, which are both assumed to be binary. The simulation study is based on features of a recently completed study of a compound with potential benefit to patients suffering from inflammatory diseases of the lung.

Paraben esters: review of recent studies of endocrine toxicity, absorption, esterase and human exposure, and discussion of potential human health risks

This toxicology update reviews research over the past four years since publication in 2004 of the first measurement of intact esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) in human breast cancer tissues, and the suggestion that their presence in the human body might originate from topical application of bodycare cosmetics. The presence of intact paraben esters in human body tissues has now been confirmed by independent measurements in human urine, and the ability of parabens to penetrate human skin intact without breakdown by esterases and to be absorbed systemically has been demonstrated through studies not only in vitro but also in vivo using healthy human subjects. Using a wide variety of assay systems in vitro and in vivo, the oestrogen agonist properties of parabens together with their common metabolite (p-hydroxybenzoic acid) have been extensively documented, and, in addition, the parabens have now also been shown to possess androgen antagonist activity, to act as inhibitors of sulfotransferase enzymes and to possess genotoxic activity. With the continued use of parabens in the majority of bodycare cosmetics, there is a need to carry out detailed evaluation of the potential for parabens, together with other oestrogenic and genotoxic co-formulants of bodycare cosmetics, to increase female breast cancer incidence, to interfere with male reproductive functions and to influence development of malignant melanoma which has also recently been shown to be influenced by oestrogenic stimulation. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of the binding ability of a novel dioxatetraazamacrocyclic receptor that contains two phenanthroline units: selective uptake of carboxylate anions

The novel dioxatetraaza macrocycle [26]phen(2)N(4)O(2), which incorporates two phenanthroline units, has been synthesized, and its acid-base behavior has been evaluated by potentiometric and H-1 NMR methods. Six protonation constants were determined, and the protonation sequence was established by NMR. The location of the fifth proton on the phen nitrogen was confirmed by X-ray determinations of the crystal structures of the receptor as bromide and chloride salts. The two compounds have the general molecular formula {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}X(n-1)(.)mH(2)O, where X = Cl, n = 3, and m = 6 or X = Br, n = 4, and m = 5.5. In the solid state, the (H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))(5+) cation adopts a "horseshoe" topology with sufficient room to encapsulate three or four halogen anions through the several N-(HX)-X-... hydrogen-bonding interactions. Two supermolecules {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}((5-n)+) form an interpenetrating dimeric species, which was also found by ESI mass spectrum. Binding studies of the protonated macrocycle with aliphatic (ox(2-), mal(2-), suc(2-), cit(3-), cta(3-)) and aromatic (bzc(-), naphc(-), anthc(-), pyrc(-), ph(2-), iph(2-), tph(2-), btc(3-)) anions were determined in water by potentiometric methods. These studies were complemented by H-1 NMR titrations in D2O of the receptor with selected anions. The H-i[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2)(i+) receptor can selectively uptake highly charged or extended aromatic carboxylate anions, such as btc(3-) and pyrc(-), in the pH ranges of 4.0-8.5 and < 4.0, respectively, from aqueous solution that contain the remaining anions as pollutants or contaminants. To obtain further insight into these structural and experimental findings, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were carried out in water solution.

Evaluation of data for atmospheric models: master equation/RRKM calculations on the combination reaction, BrO+NO2 -> BrONO2, a conundrum

Experimental data for the title reaction were modeled using master equation (ME)/RRKM methods based on the Multiwell suite of programs. The starting point for the exercise was the empirical fitting provided by the NASA (Sander, S. P.; Finlayson-Pitts, B. J.; Friedl, R. R.; Golden, D. M.; Huie, R. E.; Kolb, C. E.; Kurylo, M. J.; Molina, M. J.; Moortgat, G. K.; Orkin, V. L.; Ravishankara, A. R. Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Evaluation Number 15; Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Pasadena, California, 2006)(1) and IUPAC (Atkinson, R.; Baulch, D. L.; Cox, R. A.: R. F. Hampson, J.; Kerr, J. A.; Rossi, M. J.; Troe, J. J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data. 2000, 29, 167) 2 data evaluation panels, which represents the data in the experimental pressure ranges rather well. Despite the availability of quite reliable parameters for these calculations (molecular vibrational frequencies (Parthiban, S.; Lee, T. J. J. Chem. Phys. 2000, 113, 145)3 and a. value (Orlando, J. J.; Tyndall, G. S. J. Phys. Chem. 1996, 100,. 19398)4 of the bond dissociation energy, D-298(BrO-NO2) = 118 kJ mol(-1), corresponding to Delta H-0(circle) = 114.3 kJ mol(-1) at 0 K) and the use of RRKM/ME methods, fitting calculations to the reported data or the empirical equations was anything but straightforward. Using these molecular parameters resulted in a discrepancy between the calculations and the database of rate constants of a factor of ca. 4 at, or close to, the low-pressure limit. Agreement between calculation and experiment could be achieved in two ways, either by increasing Delta H-0(circle) to an unrealistically high value (149.3 kJ mol(-1)) or by increasing , the average energy transferred in a downward collision, to an unusually large value (> 5000 cm(-1)). The discrepancy could also be reduced by making all overall rotations fully active. The system was relatively insensitive to changing the moments of inertia in the transition state to increase the centrifugal effect. The possibility of involvement of BrOONO was tested and cannot account for the difficulties of fitting the data.

Establishing a sexual identity: case studies of learners with autism and learning difficulties

The physical and emotional changes that occur in adolescence are part of the process of sexual maturity. These changes occur irrespective of ability and are often aligned with psychological and social factors. When the nature of a disability has an inherent limitation in social awareness, as is the case for individuals with autism, the achievement of personal sexual identity can become much more complex. Challenges in supporting individuals in this respect can be caused by the sensitive aspects of inappropriate behaviour, the abstract nature of teaching the topic, and the general reluctance on the part of parents and staff to discuss sexuality in individuals with disabilities. This article explores how a residential school addressed this gap. It provides details of how this need was met for seven students and the process undertaken to involve staff, parents and other stakeholders to establish ongoing support.

Conjugated linoleic acid and human health: a critical evaluation of the evidence

Purpose of review: This review critically evaluates studies investigating the effects of conjugated linoleic acid on human health, including effects on body composition, blood lipids, liver metabolism, insulin sensitivity and immune function. It focuses mainly on human intervention studies, but includes some reference to animal and cellular studies which provide insight into potential molecular mechanisms of action of conjugated linoleic acid. Recent findings: Human studies continue to report inconsistent effects of conjugated linoleic acid on human health. Some of these reports are based on overinterpretation of marginal effects of supplementation. Recent data suggest that the effects of the substance may be isomer dependent and that cis-9, trans-11 and trans-10, cis-12 conjugated linoleic acids have opposing effects on blood lipids and on metabolism in adipocytes and hepatic cells. Summary: Claims that conjugated linoleic acid is beneficial for health remain as yet unconvincing. Human studies investigating the effects of conjugated linoleic acid supplements have tended to use mixtures of isomers and have been inconsistent. More recent studies have attempted to use relatively pure preparations of single isomers and these studies suggest that the effects of conjugated linoleic acid may be isomer-specific. These recent data suggest a relative detrimental effect of trans-10, cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid on blood lipids. There appears to be little effect of conjugated linoleic acid on immune function and the effects on insulin sensitivity remain unclear.

In vitro evaluation of the prebiotic activity of a pectic oligosaccharide-rich extract enzymatically derived from bergamot peel

The prebiotic effect of a pectic oligosaccharide-rich extract enzymatically derived from bergamot peel was studied using pure and mixed cultures of human faecal bacteria. This was compared to the prebiotic effect of fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS). Individual species of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli responded positively to the addition of the bergamot extract, which contained oligosaccharides in the range of three to seven. Fermentation studies were also carried out in controlled pH batch mixed human faecal cultures and changes in gut bacterial groups were monitored over 24 h by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, a culture-independent microbial assessment. Addition of the bergamot oligosaccharides (BOS) resulted in a high increase in the number of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli, whereas the clostridial population decreased. A prebiotic index (PI) was calculated for both FOS and BOS after 10 and 24 h incubation. Generally, higher PI scores were obtained after 10 h incubation, with BOS showing a greater value (6.90) than FOS (6.12).

Evaluation of agri-environmental and forestry schemes with multiple objectives

The evaluation of EU policy in the area of rural land use management often encounters problems of multiple and poorly articulated objectives. Agri-environmental policy has a range of aims, including natural resource protection, biodiversity conservation and the protection and enhancement of landscape quality. Forestry policy, in addition to production and environmental objectives, increasingly has social aims, including enhancement of human health and wellbeing, lifelong learning, and the cultural and amenity value of the landscape. Many of these aims are intangible, making them hard to define and quantify. This article describes two approaches for dealing with such situations, both of which rely on substantial participation by stakeholders. The first is the Agri-Environment Footprint Index, a form of multi-criteria participatory approach. The other, applied here to forestry, has been the development of ‘multi-purpose’ approaches to evaluation, which respond to the diverse needs of stakeholders through the use of mixed methods and a broad suite of indicators, selected through a participatory process. Each makes use of case studies and involves stakeholders in the evaluation process, thereby enhancing their commitment to the programmes and increasing their sustainability. Both also demonstrate more ‘holistic’ approaches to evaluation than the formal methods prescribed in the EU Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework.