North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

Environmental and human health impacts of growing genetically modified herbicide-tolerant sugar beet: a life-cycle assessment

There is ongoing debate concerning the possible environmental and human health impacts of growing genetically modified (GM) crops. Here, we report the results of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) comparing the environmental and human health impacts of conventional sugar beet growing regimes in the UK and Germany with those that might be expected if GM herbicide-tolerant (to glyphosate) sugar beet is commercialized. The results presented for a number of environmental and human health impact categories suggest that growing the GM herbicide-tolerant crop would be less harmful to the environment and human health than growing the conventional crop, largely due to lower emissions from herbicide manufacture, transport and field operations. Emissions contributing to negative environmental impacts, such as global warming, ozone depletion, ecotoxicity of water and acidification and nutrification of soil and water, were much lower for the herbicide-tolerant crop than for the conventional crop. Emissions contributing to summer smog, toxic particulate matter and carcinogenicity, which have negative human health impacts, were also substantially lower for the herbicide-tolerant crop. The environmental and human health impacts of growing GM crops need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis using a holistic approach. LCA is a valuable technique for helping to undertake such assessments.

Assessment of the impact of government animal welfare policy on farm animal welfare in the UK

The paper presents the method and findings of a Delphi expert survey to assess the impact of UK government farm animal welfare policy, form assurance schemes and major food retailer specifications on the welfare of animals on forms. Two case-study livestock production systems are considered, dairy and cage egg production. The method identifies how well the various standards perform in terms of their effects on a number of key farm animal welfare variables, and provides estimates of the impact of the three types of standard on the welfare of animals on forms, taking account of producer compliance. The study highlights that there remains considerable scope for government policy, together with form assurance schemes, to improve the welfare of form animals by introducing standards that address key factors affecting animal welfare and by increasing compliance of livestock producers. There is a need for more comprehensive, regular and random surveys of on-farm welfare to monitor compliance with welfare standards (legislation and welfare codes) and the welfare of farm animals over time, and a need to collect farm data on the costs of compliance with standards.

The use of life cycle assessment to compare the environmental impact of production and feeding of conventional and genetically modified maize for broiler production in Argentina

The paper presents the methods and results of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) applied to the production of maize grain from a conventional variety compared with maize grain from a variety genetically modified to be herbicide tolerant and insect protected and to contain an enhanced oil and lysine content, and its impact when fed to broiler chickens. The findings show that there are both environmental and human health benefits of growing GM maize including lower impacts on global warming, ozone depletion, freshwater ecotoxicity and human toxicity. However, when considered in terms of the use of maize as a feed input to broiler chicken production, the benefits of the GM alternative become negligible compared to the use of conventional maize.

Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an 'unweighted' form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.

Population-level assessment of risks of pesticides to birds and mammals in the UK

It is generally acknowledged that population-level assessments provide,I better measure of response to toxicants than assessments of individual-level effects. population-level assessments generally require the use of models to integrate potentially complex data about the effects of toxicants on life-history traits, and to provide a relevant measure of ecological impact. Building on excellent earlier reviews we here briefly outline the modelling options in population-level risk assessment. Modelling is used to calculate population endpoints from available data, which is often about Individual life histories, the ways that individuals interact with each other, the environment and other species, and the ways individuals are affected by pesticides. As population endpoints, we recommend the use of population abundance, population growth rate, and the chance of population persistence. We recommend two types of model: simple life-history models distinguishing two life-history stages, juveniles and adults; and spatially-explicit individual-based landscape models. Life-history models are very quick to set up and run, and they provide a great deal or insight. At the other extreme, individual-based landscape models provide the greatest verisimilitude, albeit at the cost of greatly increased complexity. We conclude with a discussion of the cations of the severe problems of parameterising models.

Making sense of research quality assessment

Purpose – For many academics in UK universities the nature and orientation of their research is overwhelmingly determined by considerations of how that work will be graded in research assessment exercises (RAEs). The grades awarded to work in a particular subject area can have a considerable impact on the individual and their university. There is a need to better understand those factors which may influence these grades. The paper seeks to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach – The paper considers relationships between the grades awarded and the quantitative information provided to the assessment panels for the 1996 and 2001 RAEs for two subject areas, built environment and town and country planning, and for three other subject areas, civil engineering, geography and archaeology, in the 2001 RAE. Findings – A simple model demonstrating strong and consistent relationships is established. RAE performance relates to numbers of research active staff, the production of books and journal papers, numbers of research studentships and graduations, and research income. Important differences between subject areas are identified. Research limitations/implications – Important issues are raised about the extent to which the new assessment methodology to be adopted for the 2008 RAE will capture the essence of good quality research in architecture and built environment. Originality/value – The findings provide a developmental perspective of RAEs and show how, despite a changed methodology, various research activities might be valued in the 2008 RAE. The basis for a methodology for reviewing the credibility of the judgements of panels is proposed.

An assessment of eye-gaze potential within immersive virtual environments

In collaborative situations, eye gaze is a critical element of behavior which supports and fulfills many activities and roles. In current computer-supported collaboration systems, eye gaze is poorly supported. Even in a state-of-the-art video conferencing system such as the access grid, although one can see the face of the user, much of the communicative power of eye gaze is lost. This article gives an overview of some preliminary work that looks towards integrating eye gaze into an immersive collaborative virtual environment and assessing the impact that this would have on interaction between the users of such a system. Three experiments were conducted to assess the efficacy of eye gaze within immersive virtual environments. In each experiment, subjects observed on a large screen the eye-gaze behavior of an avatar. The eye-gaze behavior of that avatar had previously been recorded from a user with the use of a head-mounted eye tracker. The first experiment was conducted to assess the difference between users' abilities to judge what objects an avatar is looking at with only head gaze being viewed and also with eye- and head-gaze data being displayed. The results from the experiment show that eye gaze is of vital importance to the subjects, correctly identifying what a person is looking at in an immersive virtual environment. The second experiment examined whether a monocular or binocular eye-tracker would be required. This was examined by testing subjects' ability to identify where an avatar was looking from their eye direction alone, or by eye direction combined with convergence. This experiment showed that convergence had a significant impact on the subjects' ability to identify where the avatar was looking. The final experiment looked at the effects of stereo and mono-viewing of the scene, with the subjects being asked to identify where the avatar was looking. This experiment showed that there was no difference in the subjects' ability to detect where the avatar was gazing. This is followed by a description of how the eye-tracking system has been integrated into an immersive collaborative virtual environment and some preliminary results from the use of such a system.

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.

Physiological expression of human thermal comfort to indoor operative temperature in the non-HVAC environment

A physiological experiment was carried out in a naturally ventilated, non-HVAC indoor environment of a spacious experimental room. More than 300 healthy university students volunteered for this study. The purpose of the study was to investigate the human physiological indicators which could be used to characterise the indoor operative temperature changes in a building and their impact on human thermal comfort based on the different climatic characteristics people would experience in Chongqing, China. The study found that sensory nerve conduction velocity (SCV) could objectively provide a good indicator for assessment of the human response to changes in indoor operative temperatures in a naturally ventilated situation. The results showed that with the changes in the indoor operative temperatures, the changing trend in the nerve conduction velocity was basically the same as that of the skin temperature at the sensory nerve measuring segment (Tskin(scv)). There was good coherent consistency among the factors: indoor operative temperature, SCV and Tskin(scv) in a certain indoor operative temperature range. Through self-adaptation and self-feedback regulation, the human physiological indicators would produce certain adaptive changes to deal with the changes in indoor operative temperature. The findings of this study should provide the baseline data to inform guidelines for the development of thermal environment-related standards that could contribute to efficient use of energy in buildings in China.