Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Analysis of a Three-Phase LSPMM by Numerical Method

Line-start permanent magnet motor (LSPMM) is a very attractive alternative to replace induction motors due to its very high efficiency and constant speed operation with load variations. However, designing this kind of hybrid motor is hard work and requires a good understanding of motor behavior. The calculation of load angle is an important step in motor design and can not be neglected. This paper uses the finite element method to show a simple methodology to calculate the load angle of a three-phase LSPMM combining the dynamic and steady-state simulations. The methodology is used to analyze a three-phase LSPMM.

Functionality of the approach of hierarchical analysis in the full cost accounting in the IRP of a metropolitan airport

This work shows the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in the full cost accounting (FCA) within the integrated resource planning (IRP) process. For this purpose, a pioneer case was developed and different energy solutions of supply and demand for a metropolitan airport (Congonhas) were considered [Moreira, E.M., 2005. Modelamento energetico para o desenvolvimento limpo de aeroporto metropolitano baseado na filosofia do PIR-O caso da metropole de Sao Paulo. Dissertacao de mestrado, GEPEA/USP]. These solutions were compared and analyzed utilizing the software solution ""Decision Lens"" that implements the AHP. The final part of this work has a classification of resources that can be considered to be the initial target as energy resources, thus facilitating the restraints of the IRP of the airport and setting parameters aiming at sustainable development. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-processing and visualization techniques in 2D boundary element analysis

Most post-processors for boundary element (BE) analysis use an auxiliary domain mesh to display domain results, working against the profitable modelling process of a pure boundary discretization. This paper introduces a novel visualization technique which preserves the basic properties of the boundary element methods. The proposed algorithm does not require any domain discretization and is based on the direct and automatic identification of isolines. Another critical aspect of the visualization of domain results in BE analysis is the effort required to evaluate results in interior points. In order to tackle this issue, the present article also provides a comparison between the performance of two different BE formulations (conventional and hybrid). In addition, this paper presents an overview of the most common post-processing and visualization techniques in BE analysis, such as the classical algorithms of scan line and the interpolation over a domain discretization. The results presented herein show that the proposed algorithm offers a very high performance compared with other visualization procedures.

On the finite element modeling of fatigue crack growth in pressurized cylindrical shells

A methodology for the computational modeling of the fatigue crack growth in pressurized shell structures, based on the finite element method and concepts of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics, is presented. This methodology is based on that developed by Potyondy [Potyondy D, Wawrzynek PA, Ingraffea, AR. Discrete crack growth analysis methodology for through crack in pressurized fuselage structures. Int J Numer Methods Eng 1995;38:1633-1644], which consists of using four stress intensity factors, computed from the modified crack integral method, to predict the fatigue propagation life as well as the crack trajectory, which is computed as part of the numerical simulation. Some issues not presented in the study of Potyondy are investigated herein such as the influence of the crack increment size and the number of nodes per element (4 or 9 nodes) on the simulation results by means of a fatigue crack propagation simulation of a Boeing 737 airplane fuselage. The results of this simulation are compared with experimental results and those obtained by Potyondy [1]. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Buckling and post-buckling of extensible rods revisited: A multiple-scale solution

An exact non-linear formulation of the equilibrium of elastic prismatic rods subjected to compression and planar bending is presented, electing as primary displacement variable the cross-section rotations and taking into account the axis extensibility. Such a formulation proves to be sufficiently general to encompass any boundary condition. The evaluation of critical loads for the five classical Euler buckling cases is pursued, allowing for the assessment of the axis extensibility effect. From the quantitative viewpoint, it is seen that such an influence is negligible for very slender bars, but it dramatically increases as the slenderness ratio decreases. From the qualitative viewpoint, its effect is that there are not infinite critical loads, as foreseen by the classical inextensible theory. The method of multiple (spatial) scales is used to survey the post-buckling regime for the five classical Euler buckling cases, with remarkable success, since very small deviations were observed with respect to results obtained via numerical integration of the exact equation of equilibrium, even when loads much higher than the critical ones were considered. Although known beforehand that such classical Euler buckling cases are imperfection insensitive, the effect of load offsets were also looked at, thus showing that the formulation is sufficiently general to accommodate this sort of analysis. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An EFG method for the nonlinear analysis of plates undergoing arbitrarily large deformations

The applicability of a meshfree approximation method, namely the EFG method, on fully geometrically exact analysis of plates is investigated. Based on a unified nonlinear theory of plates, which allows for arbitrarily large rotations and displacements, a Galerkin approximation via MLS functions is settled. A hybrid method of analysis is proposed, where the solution is obtained by the independent approximation of the generalized internal displacement fields and the generalized boundary tractions. A consistent linearization procedure is performed, resulting in a semi-definite generalized tangent stiffness matrix which, for hyperelastic materials and conservative loadings, is always symmetric (even for configurations far from the generalized equilibrium trajectory). Besides the total Lagrangian formulation, an updated version is also presented, which enables the treatment of rotations beyond the parameterization limit. An extension of the arc-length method that includes the generalized domain displacement fields, the generalized boundary tractions and the load parameter in the constraint equation of the hyper-ellipsis is proposed to solve the resulting nonlinear problem. Extending the hybrid-displacement formulation, a multi-region decomposition is proposed to handle complex geometries. A criterium for the classification of the equilibrium`s stability, based on the Bordered-Hessian matrix analysis, is suggested. Several numerical examples are presented, illustrating the effectiveness of the method. Differently from the standard finite element methods (FEM), the resulting solutions are (arbitrary) smooth generalized displacement and stress fields. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element analysis of concrete cracking at early age

The study of the early age concrete properties is becoming more important, as the thermal effects and the shrinkage, even in the first hours, could generate cracks, increasing the permeability of the structure and being able to induce problems of durability and functionality in the same ones. The detailed study of the stresses development during the construction process can be decisive to keep low the cracking levels. In this work a computational model, based on the finite element method, was implemented to simulate the early age concrete behavior and, specially, the evaluation of the cracking risk. The finite element analysis encloses the computational modeling of the following phenomena: chemical, thermal, moisture diffusion and mechanical which occur at the first days after the concrete cast. The developed software results were compared with experimental values found in the literature, demonstrating an excellent approach for all the implemented analysis.

Ethanol production process from banana fruit and its lignocellulosic residues: Energy analysis

Tropical countries, such as Brazil and Colombia, have the possibility of using agricultural lands for growing biomass to produce bio-fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol. This study applies an energy analysis to the production process of anhydrous ethanol obtained from the hydrolysis of starch and cellulosic and hemicellulosic material present in the banana fruit and its residual biomass. Four different production routes were analyzed: acid hydrolysis of amylaceous material (banana pulp and banana fruit) and enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic material (flower stalk and banana skin). The analysis considered banana plant cultivation, feedstock transport, hydrolysis, fermentation, distillation, dehydration, residue treatment and utility plant. The best indexes were obtained for amylaceous material for which mass performance varied from 346.5 L/t to 388.7 L/t, Net Energy Value (NEV) ranged from 9.86 MJ/L to 9.94 MJ/L and the energy ratio was 1.9 MJ/MJ. For lignocellulosic materials, the figures were less favorable: mass performance varied from 86.1 to 123.5 L/t, NEV from 5.24 10 8.79 MJ/L and energy ratio from 1.3 to 1.6 MJ/MJ. The analysis showed, however, that both processes can be considered energetically feasible. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exergy and thermoeconomic analysis of a turbofan engine during a typical commercial flight

In an energy perspective of cost-reduction and configuration-optimization, it becomes necessary to develop and use advanced tools for the analysis, design and improvement of energy conversion systems. In the aeronautical industry, such trend is fundamental since this industry has evolved to design extremely complex aircrafts, with highly integrated systems, requiring more information in order to evaluate the whole system. The aim of this paper is to present an exergy-based analysis as to evaluate the global performance of a typical turbofan engine and its components. The study presents values for exergy efficiency over the whole flight cycle, critical equipment and flight phases considering exergy destruction and estimating internal and exhaust flow costs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy and exergy analysis of ethanol production process from banana fruit

An alternative for ethanol production, is the use of vegetable waste, such as excess of banana production, that are evaluated in 2,400,000 t/year, which includes: residual banana fruit and lignocellulosic material. This paper analyzes the energetic and exergetic behavior to carry the process developed at laboratory scale to a plant processing of banana for the ethanol production, involving: growing and transport of the vegetable material, hydrolysis of banana fruit, sugar fermentation, ethanol distillation and utility plant. Finally, energy and exergy indicators are obtained. The results show a positive energy balance when banana fruit is used for ethanol production, but some process modification must be done looking for improving the exergetic efficiency in ethanol production.

Residual stresses in TiN, DLC and MoS(2) coated surfaces with regard to their tribological fracture behaviour

Thin hard coatings on components and tools are used increasingly due to the rapid development in deposition techniques, tribological performance and application skills. The residual stresses in a coated surface are crucial for its tribological performance. Compressive residual stresses in PVD deposited TiN and DLC coatings were measured to be in the range of 0.03-4 GPa on steel substrate and 0.1-1.3 GPa on silicon. MoS(2) coatings had tensional stresses in the range of 0.8-1.3 on steel and 0.16 GPa compressive stresses on silicon. The fracture pattern of coatings deposited on steel substrate were analysed both in bend testing and scratch testing. A micro-scale finite element method (FEM) modelling and stress simulation of a 2 mu m TiN-coated steel surface was carried out and showed a reduction of the generated tensile buckling stresses in front of the sliding tip when compressive residual stresses of 1 GPa were included in the model. However, this reduction is not similarly observed in the scratch groove behind the tip, possibly due to sliding contact-induced stress relaxation. Scratch and bending tests allowed calculation of the fracture toughness of the three coated surfaces, based on both empirical crack pattern observations and FEM stress calculation, which resulted in highest values for TiN coating followed by MoS(2) and DLC coatings, being K(C) = 4-11, about 2, and 1-2 MPa M(1/2), respectively. Higher compressive residual stresses in the coating and higher elastic modulus of the coating correlated to increased fracture toughness of the coated surface. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of hardness of the harder body on wear regime transition in a sliding pair of steels

In the unlubricated sliding wear of steels the mild-severe and severe-mild wear transitions have long been investigated. The effect of system inputs such as normal load, sliding speed, environment humidity and temperature, material properties, among others, on those transitions have also been studied. Although transitions seem to be caused by microstructural changes, surfaces oxidation and work-hardening, some questions remain regarding the way each aspect is involved. Since the early studies in sliding wear, it has usually been assumed that only the material properties of the softer body influence the wear behavior of contacting surfaces. For example, the Archard equation involves only the hardness of the softer body, without considering the hardness of the harder body. This work aims to discuss the importance of the harder body hardness in determining the wear regime operation. For this, pin-on-disk wear tests were carried out, in which the disk material was always harder than the pin material. Variations of the friction force and vertical displacement of the pin were registered during the tests. A material characterization before and after tests was conducted using stereoscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) methods, in addition to mass loss, surface roughness and microhardness measurements. The wear results confirmed the occurrence of a mild-severe wear transition when the disk hardness was decreased. The disk hardness to pin hardness ratio (H(d)/H(p)) was used as a criterion to establish the nature of surface contact deformation and to determine the wear regime transition. A predominantly elastic or plastic contact, characterized by H(d)/H(p) values higher or lower than one, results in a mild or severe wear regime operation, respectively. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Floquet stability analysis of the flow around an oscillating cylinder

This investigative work is concerned with the flow around a circular cylinder submitted to forced transverse oscillations. The goal is to investigate how the transition to turbulence is initiated in the wake for cases with different Reynolds numbers (Re) and displacement amplitudes (A). For each Re the motion frequency is kept constant, close to the Strouhal number of the flow around a fixed cylinder at the same Re. Stability analysis of two-dimensional periodic flows around a forced-oscillating cylinder is carried out with respect to three-dimensional infinitesimal perturbations. The procedure consists of performing a Floquet type analysis of time-periodic base flows, computed using the spectral/hp element method. With the results of the Floquet calculations, considerations regarding the stability of the system are drawn, and the form of the instability at its onset is obtained. The critical Reynolds number is observed to change with the amplitude of oscillation. With respect to instabilities, unstable modes with the same symmetry as mode A of a fixed cylinder are observed; however, they present different wavelengths. Also, the instabilities observed for the oscillating cylinder are distinctively stronger in the braid shear layers. Other unstable modes similar to mode B are found. Quasi-periodic modes are observed in the 2S wake, and subharmonic mode occurrences are reported in P + S wakes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability Analysis in Reciprocating Compressors for Refrigeration Systems

The most-used refrigeration system is the vapor-compression system. In this cycle, the compressor is the most complex and expensive component, especially the reciprocating semihermetic type, which is often used in food product conservation. This component is very sensitive to variations in its operating conditions. If these conditions reach unacceptable levels, failures are practically inevitable. Therefore, maintenance actions should be taken in order to maintain good performance of such compressors and to avoid undesirable stops of the system. To achieve such a goal, one has to evaluate the reliability of the system and/or the components. In this case, reliability means the probability that some equipment cannot perform their requested functions for an established time period, under defined operating conditions. One of the tools used to improve component reliability is the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). This paper proposes that the methodology of FMEA be used as a tool to evaluate the main failures found in semihermetic reciprocating compressors used in refrigeration systems. Based on the results, some suggestions for maintenance are addressed.