Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Cytotoxic effects of combination of oxidosqualene cyclase inhibitors with atorvastatin in human cancer cells.

Ten oxidosqualene cyclase inhibitors with high efficacy as cholesterol-lowering agents and of different chemical structure classes were evaluated as potential anticancer agents against human cancer cells from various tissue origins and nontumoral human-brain-derived endothelial cells. Inhibition of cancer cell growth was demonstrated at micromolar concentrations, comparable to the concentrations of statins necessary for antitumor effect. Human glioblastoma cells were among the most sensitive cells. These compounds were also able to decrease the proliferation of angiogenic brain-derived endothelial cells, as a model of tumor-induced neovasculation. Additive effects in human glioblastoma cells were also demonstrated for oxidosqualene cyclase inhibitors in combination with atorvastatin while maintaining selectivity against endothelial cells. Thus, not only statins targeting the 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase but also inhibitors of oxidosqualene cyclase decrease tumor growth, suggesting new therapeutic opportunities of combined anti-cholesterol agents for dual treatment of glioblastoma.

Molecular pathways involved in the antineoplastic effects of calcitriol on insulinoma cells.

We have previously reported that in tumorigenic pancreatic beta-cells, calcitriol exerts a potent antitumorigenic effect by inducing apoptosis, cell growth inhibition, and reduction of solid beta-cell tumors. Here we have studied the molecular pathways involved in the antineoplastic activity of calcitriol on mouse insulinoma beta TC(3) cells, mouse insulinoma beta TC expressing or not expressing the oncogene p53, and beta TC-tet cells overexpressing or not the antiapoptotic gene Bcl2. Our results indicate that calcitriol-induced apoptosis was dependent on the function of p53 and was associated with a biphasic increase in protein levels of transcription factor nuclear factor-kappa B. Calcitriol decreased cell viability by about 40% in p53-retaining beta TC and in beta TC(3) cells; in contrast, beta TC p53(-/-) cells were only minimally affected. Calcitriol-induced cell death was regulated by members of the Bcl-2 family of apoptosis regulatory proteins, as shown by calcitriol-induced up-regulation of proapoptotic Bax and Bak and the lack of calcitriol-induced cytotoxicity in Bcl-2-overexpressing insulinoma cells. Moreover, calcitriol-mediated arrest of beta TC(3) cells in the G(1) phase of the cell cycle was associated with the abnormal expression of p21 and G(2)/M-specific cyclin B2 genes and involved the DNA damage-inducible factor GADD45. Finally, in beta TC(3) cells, calcitriol modulated the expression of IGF-I and IGF-II genes. In conclusion, these findings contribute to the understanding of the antitumorigenic effects of calcitriol on tumorigenic pancreatic beta-cells and further support the rationale of its utilization in the treatment of patients with malignant insulinomas.

Effects of corticosterone on innate and humoral immune functions and oxidative stress in barn owl nestlings.

The costs of coping with stressful situations are traded-off against other functions such as immune responses. This trade-off may explain why corticosterone secretion reduces immune reactions. Corticosterone differentially affects various immunity components. However, which component is suppressed varies between studies. It remains unclear whether the trade-off in energy, nutrition, autoimmunity or oxidative stress accounts for differential immunosuppression. In this study, we investigated whether corticosterone differentially affects the constitutive innate and humoral acquired immunity. We used barn owl nestlings, implanting 50% with a corticosterone-releasing pellet and the other 50% with a placebo pellet. To measure the effect on humoral immunity we vaccinated 50% of the corticosterone-nestlings and 50% of the placebo-nestlings with the antigens 'Tetravac' and the other 50% were injected with PBS. To assess the costs of elevated corticosterone, we measured body mass and resistance to oxidative stress. Administration of corticosterone increased corticosterone levels whereas vaccination induced the production of antibodies. Corticosterone reduced the production of antibodies, but it did not significantly affect the constitutive innate immunity. Corticosterone reduced body growth and resistance to oxidative stress. Under stressful conditions barn owl nestlings seem to keep the constitutive innate immunity, whereas elevated corticosterone levels negatively affected inducible immune responses. We found evidence that mounting a humoral immune reaction is not costly in terms of growth, but reduces the resistance to oxidative stress independently of corticosterone administration. We suggest that humoral immunity is suppressed because the risk of immunopathologies may be disproportionately high when mounting an antibody response under stressful situations.

Effects of brood size manipulation and common origin on phenotype and telomere length in nestling collared flycatchers.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that telomere length is a good predictor of life expectancy, especially early in life, thus calling for determining the factors that affect telomere length at this stage. Here, we investigated the relative influence of early growth conditions and origin (genetics and early maternal effects) on telomere length of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) at fledging. We experimentally transferred hatchlings among brood triplets to create reduced, control (i.e. unchanged final nestling number) and enlarged broods. RESULTS: Although our treatment significantly affected body mass at fledging, we found no evidence that increased sibling competition affected nestling tarsus length and telomere length. However, mixed models showed that brood triplets explained a significant part of the variance in body mass (18%) and telomere length (19%), but not tarsus length (13%), emphasizing that unmanipulated early environmental factors influenced telomere length. These models also revealed low, but significant, heritability of telomere length (h(2) = 0.09). For comparison, the heritability of nestling body mass and tarsus length was 0.36 and 0.39, respectively, which was in the range of previously published estimates for those two traits in this species. CONCLUSION: Those findings in a wild bird population demonstrate that telomere length at the end of the growth period is weakly, but significantly, determined by genetic and/or maternal factors taking place before hatching. However, we found no evidence that the brood size manipulation experiment, and by extension the early growth conditions, influenced nestling telomere length. The weak heritability of telomere length suggests a close association with fitness in natural populations.

The attractiveness of nations in global competition : an empirical assessment of the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events, 1990-2012

This dissertation aims to investigate empirical evidence on the importance and influence of attractiveness of nations in global competition. The notion of country attractiveness, which has been widely developed in the research areas of international business, tourism and migration, is a multi-dimensional construct to measure a country's characteristics with regard to its market or destination that attract international investors, tourists and migrants. This analytical concept provides an account of the mechanism as to how potential stakeholders evaluate more attractive countries based on certain criteria. Thus, in the field of international sport-event bidding, do international sport event owners also have specific country attractiveness for their sport event hosts? The dissertation attempts to address this research question by statistically assessing the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events. Based on theories of signaling and soft power, country attractiveness is defined and measured as the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. This thesis proceeds to examine the concept of sport-event-hosting strategy and explore multi-level factors affecting the success in international sport-event bidding. By exploring past history of the Olympic Movement from theoretical perspectives, the thesis proposes and tests the hypotheses that economic, social and environmental attractiveness of a country may be correlated with its bid wins or the success of sport-event-hosting strategy. Quantitative analytical methods with various robustness checks are employed with using collected data on bidding results of major events in Olympic sports during the period from 1990 to 2012. The analysis results reveal that event owners of international Olympic sports are likely to prefer countries that have higher economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. The empirical assessment of this thesis suggests that high country attractiveness can be an essential element of prerequisites for a city/country to secure in order to bid with an increased chance of success.

Causes of health expenditure growth : the predominance of changes in medical practices over population ageing

On the basis of French individual data, this paper compares the effects of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on the growth in health expenditures that occurred between 1992 and 2000. Micro simulations show that the rise in expenditures due to ageing is relatively small and that the impact of changes in practices is times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more than offset the increase in spending due to population ageing. [Authors]

Tumor microenvironment and immune effects of antineoplastic therapy in lymphoproliferative syndromes.

Lymphomas represent a wide group of heterogenic diseases with different biological and clinical behavior. The underlying microenvironment-specific composition seems to play an essential role in this scenario, harboring the ability to develop successful immune responses or, on the contrary, leading to immune evasion and even promotion of tumor growth. Depending on surrounding lymphoid infiltrates, lymphomas may have different prognosis. Moreover, recent evidences have emerged that confer a significant impact of main lymphoma's treatment over microenvironment, with clinical consequences. In this review, we summarize these concepts from a pathological and clinical perspective. Also, the state of the art of lymphoma's anti-idiotype vaccine development is revised, highlighting the situations where this strategy has proven to be successful and eventual clues to obtain better results in the future.

In vitro effects of citral on Trypanosoma cruzi metacyclogenesis

Citral, the main constituent of lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus) essential oil, was added to Trypanosoma cruzi cultures grown in TAU3AAG medium to observe the effect on the epimastigote-to-trypomastigote differentiation process (metacyclogenesis). Our results showed that citral (20 μg/mL) did not affect epimastigote viability or inhibit the differentiation process. Concentrations higher than 60 μg/mL, however, led to 100% cell death (both epimastigote and trypomastigote forms). Although epimastigotes incubated with 30 μg/mL citral were viable and able to adhere to the substrate, we observed around 50% inhibition in metacyclogenesis, with a calculated concentration that inhibited metacyclogenesis by 50% after 24 h (IC50/24 h) of about 31 μg/mL. Treatment with 30 μg/mL citral did not hinder epimastigote multiplication because epimastigote growth resumed when treated cells were transferred to a drug-free liver infusion tryptose culture medium. Metacyclogenesis was almost totally abolished at 40 μg/mL after 24 h of incubation. Furthermore, the metacyclic trypomastigotes obtained in vitro were similarly susceptible to citral, with an IC50/24 h, concentration that killed 50% of the cells after 24 h, of about 24.5 μg/mL. Therefore, citral appears to be a good candidate as an inhibitory drug for further studies analyzing the T. cruzi metacyclogenesis process.

Improvement in growth after two years of growth hormone therapy in very young children born small for gestational age and without spontaneous catch-up growth: results of a multicenter, controlled, randomized, open clinical trial.

CONTEXT GH treatment is effective in children born small for gestational age (SGA); however, its effectiveness and safety in very young SGA children is unknown. OBJECTIVE The aim was to analyze the outcome of very young SGA children treated with GH and followed for 2 yr. The results after 24 months of treatment, compared with a control group without treatment during 12 months followed by 12 months of treatment, are shown. DESIGN We performed a multicenter, controlled, randomized, open trial. SETTINGS The pediatric endocrinology departments of 14 public hospitals in Spain participated in the study. PATIENTS Seventy-six children, aged 2-5 yr born SGA and without catch-up growth, were studied. INTERVENTION Children received GH at 0.06 mg/kg.d for 2 yr (group I) or were followed for 12 months with no treatment and then treated for 12 months (group II). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age, general health status, pubertal stage, bone age, height, weight, biochemical and hormonal analyses, and adverse side effects were determined at biannual check-ups. RESULTS The mean height sd score gain for chronological age in children treated for 24 months (group I) was 2.10, whereas in those treated only during the last 12 months (group II) was 1.43. In both groups, children under 4 yr of age had the greatest gain in growth velocity. No significant acceleration of bone age or side effects related to treatment was seen. CONCLUSION Very young SGA children without spontaneous catch-up growth could benefit from GH treatment because growth was accelerated and no negative side effects were observed.

Economic and environmental effects of the CO2 taxation: an input-output analysis for Spain

CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation.

Effects of alpha-phosphoglucomutase deficiency on cell wall properties and fitness in Streptococcus gordonii.

Streptococcus gordonii alpha-phosphoglucomutase, which converts glucose 6-phosphate to glucose 1-phosphate, is encoded by pgm. The pgm transcript is monocistronic and is initiated from a sigma(A)-like promoter. Mutants with a gene disruption in pgm exhibited an altered cell wall muropeptide pattern and a lower teichoic acid content, and had reduced fitness both in vitro and in vivo. In vitro, the reduced fitness included reduced growth, reduced viability in the stationary phase and increased autolytic activity. In vivo, the pgm-deficient strain had a lower virulence in a rat model of experimental endocarditis.

Immunosuppressive effects of streptozotocin-induced diabetes result in absolute lymphopenia and a relative increase of T regulatory cells.

OBJECTIVE Streptozotocin (STZ) is the most widely used diabetogenic agent in animal models of islet transplantation. However, the immunomodifying effects of STZ and the ensuing hyperglycemia on lymphocyte subsets, particularly on T regulatory cells (Tregs), remain poorly understood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study evaluated how STZ-induced diabetes affects adaptive immunity and the consequences thereof on allograft rejection in murine models of islet and skin transplantation. The respective toxicity of STZ and hyperglycemia on lymphocyte subsets was tested in vitro. The effect of hyperglycemia was assessed independently of STZ in vivo by the removal of transplanted syngeneic islets, using an insulin pump, and with rat insulin promoter diphtheria toxin receptor transgenic mice. RESULTS Early lymphopenia in both blood and spleen was demonstrated after STZ administration. Direct toxicity of STZ on lymphocytes, particularly on CD8(+) cells and B cells, was shown in vitro. Hyperglycemia also correlated with blood and spleen lymphopenia in vivo but was not lymphotoxic in vitro. Independently of hyperglycemia, STZ led to a relative increase of Tregs in vivo, with the latter retaining their suppressive capacity in vitro. The higher frequency of Tregs was associated with Treg proliferation in the blood, but not in the spleen, and higher blood levels of transforming growth factor-β. Finally, STZ administration delayed islet and skin allograft rejection compared with naive mice. CONCLUSIONS These data highlight the direct and indirect immunosuppressive effects of STZ and acute hyperglycemia, respectively. Thus, these results have important implications for the future development of tolerance-based protocols and their translation from the laboratory to the clinic.

Effects of victimization on the belief in a just world in four ex-Yugoslavian countries

Levels of support for just world beliefs among young adults (N = 598) from four ex-Yugoslavian countries-Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia-were compared, taking into account victimization experiences and the general belief in a just world. Being a victim affected an individual's belief in a just world in the two less economically favored contexts: Victims of exclusion in Macedonia and victims of war in Bosnia and Herzegovina were less likely to believe in a just world than non-victims. These victimization variables partly explained why the mean scores of these two countries were less than those of the two others. A deleterious effect of cumulative negative events on belief in a just world was identified, in parallel with a lower endorsement of the belief when the first victimization occurred more recently.