Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conservation and accessibility of an inner core lipopolysaccharide epitope of Neisseria meningitidis

We investigated the conservation and antibody accessibility of inner core epitopes of Neisseria meningitidis lipopolysaccharide (LPS) because of their potential as vaccine candidates. An immunoglobulin G3 murine monoclonal antibody (MAb), designated MAb B5, was obtained by immunizing mice with a galE mutant of N. meningitidis H44/76 (B.15.P1.7,16 immunotype L3). We have shown that MAb B5 can bind to the core LPS of wild-type encapsulated MC58 (B.15.P1.7,16 immunotype L3) organisms in vitro and ex vivo. An inner core structure recognized by MAb B5 is conserved and accessible in 26 of 34 (76%) of group B and 78 of 112 (70%) of groups A, C, W, X, Y, and Z strains. N. meningitidis strains which possess this epitope are immunotypes in which phosphoethanolamine (PEtn) is linked to the 3-position of the beta-chain heptose (HepII) of the inner core. In contrast, N. neningitidis strains lacking reactivity with MAb B5 have an alternative core structure in which PEtn is linked to an exocyclic position (i.e., position 6 or 7) of HepII (immunotypes L2, L4, and L6) or is absent (immunotype L5). We conclude that MAb B5 defines one or more of the major inner core glycoforms of N. meningitidis LPS. These findings support the possibility that immunogens capable of eliciting functional antibodies specific to inner core structures could be the basis of a vaccine against invasive infections caused by N. meningitidis.

Ecoregion classification using a bayesian approach and centre-focused clusters

Ecological regions are increasingly used as a spatial unit for planning and environmental management. It is important to define these regions in a scientifically defensible way to justify any decisions made on the basis that they are representative of broad environmental assets. The paper describes a methodology and tool to identify cohesive bioregions. The methodology applies an elicitation process to obtain geographical descriptions for bioregions, each of these is transformed into a Normal density estimate on environmental variables within that region. This prior information is balanced with data classification of environmental datasets using a Bayesian statistical modelling approach to objectively map ecological regions. The method is called model-based clustering as it fits a Normal mixture model to the clusters associated with regions, and it addresses issues of uncertainty in environmental datasets due to overlapping clusters.

A GERAÇÃO Y E A PUBLICIDADE NA MÍDIA IMPRESSA REVISTA: UMA CONEXÃO POSSÍVEL

A conexão que se estabelece entre a publicidade veiculada na mídia impressa revista e os jovens da chamada Geração Y é o principal foco deste trabalho. Estes jovens, nascidos entre 1980 e meados da década de 90, no século XX, se desenvolveram juntamente com as novas tecnologias da comunicação, cresceram com um computador ligado ao mundo pela internet, com o telefone celular e jogos interativos, mas continuam sendo assediados pelas revistas. Com o objetivo de conhecer melhor esta conexão, saber como a Geração Y se comporta diante das mensagens publicitárias e verificar se existe um padrão de consumo entre estes jovens foram realizadas investigações exploratórias em fontes primárias e secundárias complementada por um estudo conclusivo descritivo. Depois de uma revisão da literatura que trata dos conceitos de geração até o perfil da Geração Y, e de uma análise histórica da mídia revista, a realização de pesquisas aplicadas em forma de grupos focais e de um estudo descritivo, nos permitiu concluir que existe uma sobrevida para a mídia impressa revista, e ainda por muito tempo. Aspectos como a tangibilidade, portabilidade e a tradição são os pilares que garantem às revistas uma sólida confiabilidade por parte dos jovens da Geração Y, sobrepondo-se à mídia eletrônica, volátil e pouco confiável para eles.