Matching CO2 large point sources and potential geological storage sites in mainland Portugal

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

AltitudeOmics: enhanced cerebrovascular reactivity and ventilatory response to CO2 with high-altitude acclimatization and reexposure.

The present study is the first to examine the effect of high-altitude acclimatization and reexposure on the responses of cerebral blood flow and ventilation to CO2. We also compared the steady-state estimates of these parameters during acclimatization with the modified rebreathing method. We assessed changes in steady-state responses of middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAv), cerebrovascular conductance index (CVCi), and ventilation (V(E)) to varied levels of CO2 in 21 lowlanders (9 women; 21 ± 1 years of age) at sea level (SL), during initial exposure to 5,260 m (ALT1), after 16 days of acclimatization (ALT16), and upon reexposure to altitude following either 7 (POST7) or 21 days (POST21) at low altitude (1,525 m). In the nonacclimatized state (ALT1), MCAv and V(E) responses to CO2 were elevated compared with those at SL (by 79 ± 75% and 14.8 ± 12.3 l/min, respectively; P = 0.004 and P = 0.011). Acclimatization at ALT16 further elevated both MCAv and Ve responses to CO2 compared with ALT1 (by 89 ± 70% and 48.3 ± 32.0 l/min, respectively; P < 0.001). The acclimatization gained for V(E) responses to CO2 at ALT16 was retained by 38% upon reexposure to altitude at POST7 (P = 0.004 vs. ALT1), whereas no retention was observed for the MCAv responses (P > 0.05). We found good agreement between steady-state and modified rebreathing estimates of MCAv and V(E) responses to CO2 across all three time points (P < 0.001, pooled data). Regardless of the method of assessment, altitude acclimatization elevates both the cerebrovascular and ventilatory responsiveness to CO2. Our data further demonstrate that this enhanced ventilatory CO2 response is partly retained after 7 days at low altitude.

The Effect of Adding CO2 to Hypoxic Inspired Gas on Cerebral Blood Flow Velocity and Breathing during Incremental Exercise

Hypoxia increases the ventilatory response to exercise, which leads to hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and subsequent reduction in cerebral blood flow (CBF). We studied the effects of adding CO2 to a hypoxic inspired gas on CBF during heavy exercise in an altitude naïve population. We hypothesized that augmented inspired CO2 and hypoxia would exert synergistic effects on increasing CBF during exercise, which would improve exercise capacity compared to hypocapnic hypoxia. We also examined the responsiveness of CO2 and O2 chemoreception on the regulation ventilation (E) during incremental exercise. We measured middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAv; index of CBF), E, end-tidal PCO2, respiratory compensation threshold (RC) and ventilatory response to exercise (E slope) in ten healthy men during incremental cycling to exhaustion in normoxia and hypoxia (FIO2 = 0.10) with and without augmenting the fraction of inspired CO2 (FICO2). During exercise in normoxia, augmenting FICO2 elevated MCAv throughout exercise and lowered both RC onset andE slope below RC (P<0.05). In hypoxia, MCAv and E slope below RC during exercise were elevated, while the onset of RC occurred at lower exercise intensity (P<0.05). Augmenting FICO2 in hypoxia increased E at RC (P<0.05) but no difference was observed in RC onset, MCAv, or E slope below RC (P>0.05). The E slope above RC was unchanged with either hypoxia or augmented FICO2 (P>0.05). We found augmenting FICO2 increased CBF during sub-maximal exercise in normoxia, but not in hypoxia, indicating that the 'normal' cerebrovascular response to hypercapnia is blunted during exercise in hypoxia, possibly due to an exhaustion of cerebral vasodilatory reserve. This finding may explain the lack of improvement of exercise capacity in hypoxia with augmented CO2. Our data further indicate that, during exercise below RC, chemoreception is responsive, while above RC the ventilatory response to CO2 is blunted.

CO2 utilization in the perspective of industrial ecology, an overview

Carbon dioxide emissions from anthropic activities have accumulated in the atmosphere in excess of 800 Gigatons since preindustrial times, and are continuously increasing. Among other strategies, CO2 capture and storage is one option to mitigate the emissions from large point sources. In addition, carbon dioxide extraction from ambient air is assessed to reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2. Both direct and indirect (through photosynthesis) pathways are possible. Geological sequestration has significant disadvantages (high cost, low public acceptance, long term uncertainty) whereas carbon dioxide recycling (or utilization) is more consistent with the basic principle of industrial ecology, almost closing material cycles. In this article, a series of technologies for CO2 capture and valorization is described as integrated and optimized pathways. This integration increases the environmental and economic benefits of each technology. Depending on the source of carbon dioxide, appropriate capture and valorization processes are evaluated based on material and energy constraints.

Production of magnesium carbonates from serpentinites for CO2 mineral sequestration : optimisation towards industrial application

Global warming is one of the most alarming problems of this century. Initial scepticism concerning its validity is currently dwarfed by the intensification of extreme weather events whilst the gradual arising level of anthropogenic CO2 is pointed out as its main driver. Most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from large point sources (heat and power production and industrial processes) and the continued use of fossil fuels requires quick and effective measures to meet the world’s energy demand whilst (at least) stabilizing CO2 atmospheric levels. The framework known as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – or Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) – comprises a portfolio of technologies applicable to large‐scale GHG sources for preventing CO2 from entering the atmosphere. Amongst them, CO2 capture and mineralisation (CCM) presents the highest potential for CO2 sequestration as the predicted carbon storage capacity (as mineral carbonates) far exceeds the estimated levels of the worldwide identified fossil fuel reserves. The work presented in this thesis aims at taking a step forward to the deployment of an energy/cost effective process for simultaneous capture and storage of CO2 in the form of thermodynamically stable and environmentally friendly solid carbonates. R&D work on the process considered here began in 2007 at Åbo Akademi University in Finland. It involves the processing of magnesium silicate minerals with recyclable ammonium salts for extraction of magnesium at ambient pressure and 400‐440⁰C, followed by aqueous precipitation of magnesium in the form of hydroxide, Mg(OH)2, and finally Mg(OH)2 carbonation in a pressurised fluidized bed reactor at ~510⁰C and ~20 bar PCO2 to produce high purity MgCO3. Rock material taken from the Hitura nickel mine, Finland, and serpentinite collected from Bragança, Portugal, were tested for magnesium extraction with both ammonium sulphate and bisulphate (AS and ABS) for determination of optimal operation parameters, primarily: reaction time, reactor type and presence of moisture. Typical efficiencies range from 50 to 80% of magnesium extraction at 350‐450⁰C. In general ABS performs better than AS showing comparable efficiencies at lower temperature and reaction times. The best experimental results so far obtained include 80% magnesium extraction with ABS at 450⁰C in a laboratory scale rotary kiln and 70% Mg(OH)2 carbonation in the PFB at 500⁰C, 20 bar CO2 pressure for 15 minutes. The extraction reaction with ammonium salts is not at all selective towards magnesium. Other elements like iron, nickel, chromium, copper, etc., are also co‐extracted. Their separation, recovery and valorisation are addressed as well and found to be of great importance. The assessment of the exergetic performance of the process was carried out using Aspen Plus® software and pinch analysis technology. The choice of fluxing agent and its recovery method have a decisive sway in the performance of the process: AS is recovered by crystallisation and in general the whole process requires more exergy (2.48–5.09 GJ/tCO2sequestered) than ABS (2.48–4.47 GJ/tCO2sequestered) when ABS is recovered by thermal decomposition. However, the corrosive nature of molten ABS and operational problems inherent to thermal regeneration of ABS prohibit this route. Regeneration of ABS through addition of H2SO4 to AS (followed by crystallisation) results in an overall negative exergy balance (mainly at the expense of low grade heat) but will flood the system with sulphates. Although the ÅA route is still energy intensive, its performance is comparable to conventional CO2 capture methods using alkanolamine solvents. An energy‐neutral process is dependent on the availability and quality of nearby waste heat and economic viability might be achieved with: magnesium extraction and carbonation levels ≥ 90%, the processing of CO2‐containing flue gases (eliminating the expensive capture step) and production of marketable products.

Estimating surface CO2 fluxes from space-borne dry air mole fraction observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter

We have developed an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to estimate 8-day regional surface fluxes of CO2 from space-borne CO2 dry-air mole fraction observations (XCO2) and evaluate the approach using a series of synthetic experiments, in preparation for data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The 32-day duty cycle of OCO alternates every 16 days between nadir and glint measurements of backscattered solar radiation at short-wave infrared wavelengths. The EnKF uses an ensemble of states to represent the error covariances to estimate 8-day CO2 surface fluxes over 144 geographical regions. We use a 12×8-day lag window, recognising that XCO2 measurements include surface flux information from prior time windows. The observation operator that relates surface CO2 fluxes to atmospheric distributions of XCO2 includes: a) the GEOS-Chem transport model that relates surface fluxes to global 3-D distributions of CO2 concentrations, which are sampled at the time and location of OCO measurements that are cloud-free and have aerosol optical depths <0.3; and b) scene-dependent averaging kernels that relate the CO2 profiles to XCO2, accounting for differences between nadir and glint measurements, and the associated scene-dependent observation errors. We show that OCO XCO2 measurements significantly reduce the uncertainties of surface CO2 flux estimates. Glint measurements are generally better at constraining ocean CO2 flux estimates. Nadir XCO2 measurements over the terrestrial tropics are sparse throughout the year because of either clouds or smoke. Glint measurements provide the most effective constraint for estimating tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes by accurately sampling fresh continental outflow over neighbouring oceans. We also present results from sensitivity experiments that investigate how flux estimates change with 1) bias and unbiased errors, 2) alternative duty cycles, 3) measurement density and correlations, 4) the spatial resolution of estimated flux estimates, and 5) reducing the length of the lag window and the size of the ensemble. At the revision stage of this manuscript, the OCO instrument failed to reach its orbit after it was launched on 24 February 2009. The EnKF formulation presented here is also applicable to GOSAT measurements of CO2 and CH4.

Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

It is premature to include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes

The recent G8 Gleneagles climate statement signed on 8 July 2005 specifically mentions a determination to lessen the impact of aviation on climate [Gleneagles, 2005. The Gleneagles communique: climate change, energy and sustainable development. http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Communique.pdf]. In January 2005 the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector ETS in the world, albeit currently limited only to CO2 emissions. At present the scheme makes no provision for aircraft emissions. However, the UK Government would like to see aircraft included in the ETS and plans to use its Presidencies of both the EU and G8 in 2005 to implement these schemes within the EU and perhaps internationally. Non-CO2 effects have been included in some policy-orientated studies of the impact of aviation but we argue that the inclusion of such effects in any such ETS scheme is premature; we specifically argue that use of the Radiative Forcing Index for comparing emissions from different sources is inappropriate and that there is currently no metric for such a purpose that is likely to enable their inclusion in the near future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it.

Atmospheric chemistry of C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH: temperature dependence of the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals, atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials

The atmospheric chemistry of several gases used in industrial applications, C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH, has been studied. The discharge flow technique coupled with mass-spectrometric detection has been used to study the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals as a function of temperature. The infrared spectra of the compounds have also been measured. The following Arrhenius expressions for the reactions were determined (in units of cm3 molecule-1 s-1): k(OH + HFE-7200) = (6.9+2.3-1.7) × 10-11 exp(-(2030 ± 190)/T); k(OH + HFE-7100) = (2.8+3.2-1.5) × 10-11 exp(-(2200 ± 490)/T); k(OH + HFE-7000) = (2.0+1.2-0.7) × 10-11 exp(-(2130 ± 290)/T); and k(OH + C3F7CH2OH) = (1.4+0.3-0.2) × 10-11 exp(-(1460 ± 120)/T). From the infrared spectra, radiative forcing efficiencies were determined and compared with earlier estimates in the literature. These were combined with the kinetic data to estimate 100-year time horizon global warming potentials relative to CO2 of 69, 337, 499 and 36 for HFE-7200, HFE-7100, HFE-7000 and CF3CF2CF2CH2OH, respectively.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops

Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) will benefit the yield of most crops. Two free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) meta-analyses have shown increases in yield of between 0 and 73% for C3 crops. Despite this large range, few crop modelling studies quantify the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We present a novel perturbed-parameter method of crop model simulation, which uses some constraints from observations, that does this. The model used is the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the general large-area model for annual crops (GLAM). The conclusions are of relevance to C3 crops in general. The increases in yield simulated by GLAM for doubled CO2 were between 16 and 62%. The difference in mean percentage increase between well-watered and water-stressed simulations was 6.8. These results were compared to FACE and controlled environment studies, and to sensitivity tests on two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., Bell, M.J., 1995. A peanut simulation model. I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. The relationship between CO2 and water stress in the experiments and in the models was examined. From a physiological perspective, water-stressed crops are expected to show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops. This expectation has been cited in literature. However, this result is not seen consistently in either the FACE studies or in the crop models. In contrast, leaf-level models of assimilation do consistently show this result. An analysis of the evidence from these models and from the data suggests that scale (canopy versus leaf), model calibration, and model complexity are factors in determining the sign and magnitude of the interaction between CO2 and water stress. We conclude from our study that the statement that 'water-stressed crops show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops' cannot be held to be universally true. We also conclude, preliminarily, that the relationship between water stress and assimilation varies with scale. Accordingly, we provide some suggestions on how studies of a similar nature, using crop models of a range of complexity, could contribute further to understanding the roles of model calibration, model complexity and scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water use of a bioenergy plantation increases in a future high CO2 world

Fast-growing poplar trees may in future be used as a source of renewable energy for heat, electricity and biofuels such as bioethanol. Water use in Populus x euramericana (clone I214), following long-term exposure to elevated CO2 in the POPFACE (poplar free-air carbon dioxide enrichment) experiment, is quantified here. Stomatal conductance was measured and, during two measurement campaigns made before and after coppicing, whole-tree water use was determined using heat-balance sap-flow gauges, first validated using eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux. Water use was determined by the balance between leaf-level reductions in stomatal conductance and tree-level stimulations in transpiration. Reductions in stomatal conductance were found that varied between 16 and 39% relative to ambient air. Whole-tree sap flow was increased in plants growing under elevated CO2, on average, by 12 and 23%, respectively, in the first and in the second measurement campaigns. These results suggest that future CO2 concentrations may result in an increase in seasonal water use in fast-growing, short-rotation Populus plantations.

Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment

A time-dependent climate-change experiment with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study changes in the occurrence of drought in summer in southern Europe and central North America. In both regions, precipitation and soil moisture are reduced in a climate of greater atmospheric carbon dioxide. A detailed investigation of the hydrology of the model shows that the drying of the soil comes about through an increase in evaporation in winter and spring, caused by higher temperatures and reduced snow cover, and a decrease in the net input of water in summer. Evaporation is reduced in summer because of the drier soil, but the reduction in precipitation is larger. Three extreme statistics are used to define drought, namely the frequency of low summer precipitation, the occurrence of long dry spells, and the probability of dry soil. The last of these is arguably of the greatest practical importance, but since it is based on soil moisture, of which there are very few observations, the authors’ simulation of it has the least confidence. Furthermore, long time series for daily observed precipitation are not readily available from a sufficient number of stations to enable a thorough evaluation of the model simulation, especially for the frequency of long dry spells, and this increases the systematic uncertainty of the model predictions. All three drought statistics show marked increases owing to the sensitivity of extreme statistics to changes in their distributions. However, the greater likelihood of long dry spells is caused by a tendency in the character of daily rainfall toward fewer events, rather than by the reduction in mean precipitation. The results should not be taken as firm predictions because extreme statistics for small regions cannot be calculated reliably from the output of the current generation of GCMs, but they point to the possibility of large increases in the severity of drought conditions as a consequence of climate change caused by increased CO2.