Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Computing the Stochastic Complexity of Simple Probabilistic Graphical Models

Minimum Description Length (MDL) is an information-theoretic principle that can be used for model selection and other statistical inference tasks. There are various ways to use the principle in practice. One theoretically valid way is to use the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) criterion. Due to computational difficulties, this approach has not been used very often. This thesis presents efficient floating-point algorithms that make it possible to compute the NML for multinomial, Naive Bayes and Bayesian forest models. None of the presented algorithms rely on asymptotic analysis and with the first two model classes we also discuss how to compute exact rational number solutions.

Queuing Models for Estimating Aircraft Fleet Availability

The availability of a small fleet of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot combination is modeled and studied. First, a deterministic flow model relates parameters of interest and represents the state-of-the art in the planning of such systems. Second, a cyclic queue model shows the effect of the principal uncertainties in operation and repair and shows the consequent decrease in the availability of aircraft at the flying-base. Several options such as increasing fleet size, investments in additional repair facilities, or building reliability and maintainability into the individual aircraft during its life-cycle are open for increasing the availability. A life-cycle cost criterion brings out some of these features. Numerical results confirm Rose's prediction that there exists a minimal cost combination of end products and repair-depot capability to achieve a prescribed operational availability.

Evaluation of k-epsilon and RNG turbulence models for confined swirling and non-swirling flow

In a very recent study [1] the Renormalisation Group (RNG) turbulence model was used to obtain flow predictions in a strongly swirling quarl burner, and was found to perform well in predicting certain features that are not well captured using less sophisticated models of turbulence. The implication is that the RNG approach should provide an economical and reliable tool for the prediction of swirling flows in combustor and furnace geometries commonly encountered in technological applications. To test this hypothesis the present work considers flow in a model furnace for which experimental data is available [2]. The essential features of the flow which differentiate it from the previous study [1] are that the annular air jet entry is relatively narrow and the base wall of the cylindrical furnace is at 90 degrees to the inlet pipe. For swirl numbers of order 1 the resulting flow is highly complex with significant inner and outer recirculation regions. The RNG and standard k-epsilon models are used to model the flow for both swirling and non-swirling entry jets and the results compared with experimental data [2]. Near wall viscous effects are accounted for in both models via the standard wall function formulation [3]. For the RNG model, additional computations with grid placement extending well inside the near wall viscous-affected sublayer are performed in order to assess the low Reynolds number capabilities of the model.

Computation of confined swirling flow using RNG and k-epsilon turbulence models

In this work we numerically model isothermal turbulent swirling flow in a cylindrical burner. Three versions of the RNG k-epsilon model are assessed against performance of the standard k-epsilon model. Sensitivity of numerical predictions to grid refinement, differing convective differencing schemes and choice of (unknown) inlet dissipation rate, were closely scrutinised to ensure accuracy. Particular attention is paid to modelling the inlet conditions to within the range of uncertainty of the experimental data, as model predictions proved to be significantly sensitive to relatively small changes in upstream flow conditions. We also examine the characteristics of the swirl--induced recirculation zone predicted by the models over an extended range of inlet conditions. Our main findings are: - (i) the standard k-epsilon model performed best compared with experiment; - (ii) no one inlet specification can simultaneously optimize the performance of the models considered; - (iii) the RNG models predict both single-cell and double-cell IRZ characteristics, the latter both with and without additional internal stagnation points. The first finding indicates that the examined RNG modifications to the standard k-e model do not result in an improved eddy viscosity based model for the prediction of swirl flows. The second finding suggests that tuning established models for optimal performance in swirl flows a priori is not straightforward. The third finding indicates that the RNG based models exhibit a greater variety of structural behaviour, despite being of the same level of complexity as the standard k-e model. The plausibility of the predicted IRZ features are discussed in terms of known vortex breakdown phenomena.

Role of F-gravity in cosmological models

Abstract is not available.

Towards stress freezing in birefringent orthotropic composite models

Birefringent composite models are fabricated using epoxy resin reinforced with unidirectionally oriented glass fibers. The mechanical and photoelastic properties of the material at room temperature are determined. To explore the possibility of application of stress-freezing technique to birefringent composite models, the behavior and properties of this material are studied at elevated temperature (at stress-freezing temperature of the resin). The properties of the material at room and at elevated temperatures are reported. The feasibility of stress freezing glass-fiber-reinforced epoxy composites with low-fiber-volume fraction is discussed.

Regulation of Growth by Drosophila FoxO Transcription Factor

Forkhead box class O (FoxO) transcription factors are members of the forkhead box transcription factor superfamily, with orthologues in various species such as human, worm and fly. FoxO proteins are key regulators of growth, metabolism, stress resistance and, consequently, life span. FoxOs integrate signals from different pathways, e.g. the growth controlling Insulin-TOR signaling pathway and the stress induced JNK and Hippo signaling pathways. FoxO proteins have evolved to guide the cellular response to varying energy and stress conditions by inducing the expression of genes involved in the regulation of growth and metabolism. This work has aimed to deepen the understanding of how FoxO executes its biological functions. A particular emphasis has been laid to its role in growth control. Specifically, evidence is presented indicating that FoxO restricts tissue growth in a situation when TOR signaling is high. This finding can have implications in a human condition called Tuberous sclerosis, manifested by multiple benign tumors. Further, it is shown that FoxO directly binds to the promoter and regulates the expression of a Drosophila Adenylate cyclase gene, ac76e, which in turn modulates the fly s development and growth systemically. These results strengthen FoxOs position among central size regulators as it is able to operate at the level of individual cells as well as in the whole organism. Finally, an attempt to reveal the regulatory network upstream of FoxO has been carried out. Several putative FoxO activity regulators were identified in an RNAi screen of Drosophila kinases and phosphatases. The results underscore that FoxO is regulated through an elaborate network, ensuring the correct execution of key cellular processes in metabolism and response to stress. Overall, the evidence provided in this study strengthens our view of FoxO as a key integrator of growth and stress signals.

Deformation and stability regression models for soil nail walls

Lateral displacement and global stability are the two main stability criteria for soil nail walls. Conventional design methods do not adequately address the deformation behaviour of soil nail walls, owing to the complexity involved in handling a large number of influencing factors. Consequently, limited methods of deformation estimates based on empirical relationships and in situ performance monitoring are available in the literature. It is therefore desirable that numerical techniques and statistical methods are used in order to gain a better insight into the deformation behaviour of soil nail walls. In the present study numerical experiments are conducted using a 2 4 factorial design method. Based on analysis of the maximum lateral deformation and factor-of-safety observations from the numerical experiments, regression models for maximum lateral deformation and factor-of-safety prediction are developed and checked for adequacy. Selection of suitable design factors for the 2 4 factorial design of numerical experiments enabled the use of the proposed regression models over a practical range of soil nail wall heights and in situ soil variability. It is evident from the model adequacy analyses and illustrative example that the proposed regression models provided a reasonably good estimate of the lateral deformation and global factor of safety of the soil nail walls.

From actin monomers to bundles: The roles of twinfilin and α-actinin in Drosophila melanogaster development

The actin cytoskeleton is essential for a large variety of cell biological processes. Actin exists in either a monomeric or a filamentous form, and it is very important for many cellular functions that the local balance between these two actin populations is properly regulated. A large number of proteins participate in the regulation of actin dynamics in the cell, and twinfilin, one of the proteins examined in this thesis, belongs to this category. The second level of regulation involves proteins that crosslink or bundle actin filaments, thereby providing the cell with a certain shape. α-Actinin, the second protein studied, mainly acts as an actin crosslinking protein. Both proteins are conserved in organisms ranging from yeast to mammals. In this thesis, the roles of twinfilin and α-actinin in development were examined using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism. Twinfilin is an actin monomer binding protein that is structurally related to cofilin. In vitro, twinfilin reduces actin polymerisation by sequestering actin monomers. The Drosophila twinfilin (twf) gene was identified and found to encode a protein functionally similar to yeast and mammalian twinfilins. A strong hypomorphic twf mutation was identified, and flies homozygous for this allele were viable and fertile. The adult twf mutant flies displayed reduced viability, a rough eye phenotype and severely malformed bristles. The shape of the adult bristle is determined by the actin bundles that are regularly spaced around the perimeter of the developing pupal bristles. Examination of the twf pupal bristles revealed an increased level of filamentous actin, which in turn resulted in splitting and displacement of the actin bundles. The bristle defect was rescued by twf overexpression in developing bristles. The Twinfilin protein was localised at sites of actin filament assembly, where it was required to limit actin polymerisation. A genetic interaction between twinfilin and twinstar (the gene encoding Cofilin) was detected, consistent with the model predicting that both proteins act to limit the amount of filamentous actin. α-Actinin has been implicated in several diverse cell biological processes. In Drosophila, the only function for α-actinin yet known is in the organisation of the muscle sarcomere. Muscle and non-muscle cells utilise different α-actinin isoforms, which in Drosophila are produced by alternative splicing of a single gene. In this work, novel α-actinin deletion alleles, including ActnΔ233, were generated, which specifically disrupted the transcript encoding the non-muscle α-actinin isoform. Nevertheless, ActnΔ233 homozygous mutant flies were viable and fertile with no obvious defects. By comparing α-actinin protein distribution in wild type and ActnΔ233 mutant animals, it could be concluded that non-muscle α-actinin is the only isoform expressed in young embryos, in the embryonic central nervous system and in various actin-rich structures of the ovarian germline cells. In the ActnΔ233 mutant, α-actinin was detected not only in muscle tissue, but also in embryonic epidermal cells and in certain follicle cell populations in the ovaries. The population of α-actinin protein present in non-muscle cells of the ActnΔ233 mutant is referred to as FC-α-actinin (Follicle Cell). The follicular epithelium in the Drosophila ovary is a well characterised model system for studies on patterning and morphogenesis. Therefore, α-actinin expression, regulation and function in this tissue were further analysed. Examination of the α-actinin localisation pattern revealed that the basal actin fibres of the main body follicle cells underwent an organised remodelling during the final stages of oogenesis. This involved the assembly of a transient adhesion site in the posterior of the cell, in which α-actinin and Enabled (Ena) accumulated. Follicle cells genetically manipulated to lack all α-actinin isoforms failed to remodel their cytoskeleton and translocate Ena to the posterior of the cell, while the actin fibres as such were not affected. Neither was epithelial morphogenesis disrupted. The reorganisation of the basal actin cytoskeleton was also disturbed following ectopic expression of Decapentaplegic (Dpp) or as a result of a heat shock. At late oogenesis, the main body follicle cells express both non-muscle α-actinin and FC-α-actinin, while the dorsal anterior follicle cells express only non-muscle α-actinin. The dorsal anterior cells are patterned by the Dpp and Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signalling pathways, and they will ultimately secrete the dorsal appendages of the egg. Experiments involving ectopic activation of EGFR and Dpp signalling showed that FC-α-actinin is negatively regulated by combined EGFR and Dpp signalling. Ubiquitous overexpression of the adult muscle-specific α-actinin isoform induced the formation of aberrant actin bundles in migrating follicle cells that did not normally express FC-α-actinin, provided that the EGFR signalling pathway was activated in the cells. Taken together, this work contributes new data to our knowledge of α-actinin function and regulation in Drosophila. The cytoskeletal remodelling shown to depend on α-actinin function provides the first evidence that α-actinin has a role in the organisation of the cytoskeleton in a non-muscle tissue. Furthermore, the cytoskeletal remodelling constitutes a previously undescribed morphogenetic event, which may provide us with a model system for in vivo studies on adhesion dynamics in Drosophila.

Comprehensive view of the combustion models of composite solid propellants

Abstrat is not available.