Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Estimating numbers of infectious units from serial dilution assays

The paper concerns the design and analysis of serial dilution assays to estimate the infectivity of a sample of tissue when it is assumed that the sample contains a finite number of indivisible infectious units such that a subsample will be infectious if it contains one or more of these units. The aim of the study is to estimate the number of infectious units in the original sample. The standard approach to the analysis of data from such a study is based on the assumption of independence of aliquots both at the same dilution level and at different dilution levels, so that the numbers of infectious units in the aliquots follow independent Poisson distributions. An alternative approach is based on calculation of the expected value of the total number of samples tested that are not infectious. We derive the likelihood for the data on the basis of the discrete number of infectious units, enabling calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate and likelihood-based confidence intervals. We use the exact probabilities that are obtained to compare the maximum likelihood estimate with those given by the other methods in terms of bias and standard error and to compare the coverage of the confidence intervals. We show that the methods have very similar properties and conclude that for practical use the method that is based on the Poisson assumption is to be recommended, since it can be implemented by using standard statistical software. Finally we consider the design of serial dilution assays, concluding that it is important that neither the dilution factor nor the number of samples that remain untested should be too large.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Analysis of molecular determinants of affinity and relative efficacy of a series of R- and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins at the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor

1 Factors influencing agonist affinity and relative efficacy have been studied for the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor using membranes of CHO cells expressing the human form of the receptor and a series of R-and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins (nonhydroxylated and monohydroxylated (5-OH, 6-OH, 7-OH, 8-OH) species). 2 Ligand binding studies were used to determine dissociation constants for agonist binding to the 5HT(1A) receptor: (a) K-i values for agonists were determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]-8-OH DPAT. Competition data were all fitted best by a one-binding site model. (b) K-i values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]-NAD-199. Competition data were all fitted best by a two-binding site model, and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) and lower affinity (K-1) sites were determined. 3 The ability of the agonists to activate the 5-HT1A receptor was determined using stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. Maximal effects of agonists (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration/response curves for stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. 4 K-1/K-h determined from ligand binding assays correlated with the relative efficacy (relative Em) of agonists determined in [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. There was also a correlation between K-1/K-h and K-1/EC50 for agonists determined from ligand binding and [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. 5 Simulations of agonist binding and effect data were performed using the Ternary Complex Model in order to assess the use of K-1/K-h for predicting the relative efficacy of agonists. British Journal of Pharmacology (2003) 138, 1129-1139. doi: 10. 1038/sj.bjp.705085.

Ring-chain interconversion in high-performance polymer systems. 3. Cyclodepolymerization of poly(m-phenylene isophthalamide) (Nomex) and entropically driven ring-opening polymerization of the macrocyclic oligomers so produced

A homologous series of macrocyclic oligoamides has been prepared in high yield by reaction of isophthaloyl chloride with m-phenylenediamine under pseudo-high-dilution conditions. The products were characterized by infrared and H-1 NMR spectroscopies, matrix assisted laser desorption-ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and gel permeation chromatography (GPC). A series of linear oligomers was prepared for comparison. The macrocycles ranged in size from the cyclic trimer up to at least the cyclic nonamer (90 ring atoms). The same homologous series of macrocyclic oligomers was prepared in high yield by the cyclodepolymerization of poly(m-phenylene isophthalamide) (Nomex). Cyclodepolymerization was best achieved by treating a 1% w/v solution of the polymer in dimethyl sulfoxide containing calcium chloride or lithium chloride with 3-4 mol % of sodium hydride or the sodium salt of benzanilide at 150 degreesC for 70 h. Treatment of a concentrated solution of the macrocyclic oligomers (25% w/v) with 4 mol % of sodium hydride or the sodium salt of benzanilide in a solution of lithium chloride in dimethyl sulfoxide at 170 degreesC for 6 h resulted in efficient entropically driven ring-opening polymerizations to give poly(m-phenylene isophthalamide), characterized by infrared and H-1 NMR spectroscopies and by GPC. The molecular weights obtained were comparable with those of the commercial polymer.

Ordering on multiple lengthscales in a series of side group liquid crystal block copolymers containing a cholesteryl-based mesogen

Hierarchical ordering in a side group liquid crystal block copolymer is investigated by differential scanning calorimetry, polarized optical microscopy, small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). A series of block copolymers with a range of compositions was prepared by atom transfer radical polymerization, comprising a polystyrene block and a poly(methyl methacrylate) block bearing chiral cholesteryl mesogens. Smectic ordering is observed as well as microphase separation of the block copolymer. Lamellar structures were observed for far larger volume fractions than for coil-coil copolymers (up to a volume fraction of liquid crystal block, f(LC) = 0.8). A sample with f(LC) = 0.86 exhibited a hexagonal-packed cylinder morphology, as confirmed by SAXS and TEM. The matrix comprised the liquid crystal block, with the mesogens forming smectic layers. For the liquid crystal homopolymer and samples with high f(LC), a smectic-smectic phase transition was observed below the clearing point. At low temperature, the smectic phase comprises coexisting domains with monolayer S-A,S-1 coexisting with interdigitated S-A,S-d domains. At high temperature a SA,1 phase is observed. This is the only structure observed for samples with lower f(LC). These unprecedented results point to the influence of block copolymer microphase separation on the smectic ordering.

The synthesis and cytotoxic evaluation of a series of benzodioxole substituted titanocenes

Using 6-benzo[1,3]dioxolefulvene (1a), a series of benzodioxole substituted titanocenes was synthesized. The benzyl-substituted titanocene bis[(benzo[1,3]dioxole)-5-methylcyclopentadienyl] titanium (IV) dichloride (2a) was synthesized from the reaction of Super Hydride with 1a. An X-ray determined crystal structure was obtained for 2a. The ansa-titanocene (1,2-di(cyclopentadienyl)1,2-di-(benzo[1,3]dioxole)-ethanediyl) titanium(IV) dichloride (2b) was synthesized by reductive dimerisation of la with titanium dichloride. The diarylmethyl substituted titanocene bis(di(benzo[1,3]dioxole)-S-methylcyclopentadienyl) titanium(IV) dichloride (20 was synthesized by reacting la with the para-lithiated benzodioxole followed by transmetallation with titanium tetrachloride. When titanocenes 2a-c were tested against pig kidney (LLC-PK) cells inhibitory concentrations (IC50) of 2.8 X 10(-4), 1.6 x 10(-4) and 7.6 x 10(-5) m, respectively, were observed. These values represent improved cytotoxicity against LLC-PK, when compared with unsubstituted titanocene dichloride, but are not as impressive as values obtained for titanocenes previously synthesized using the above methods. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A preliminary evaluation of cognitive-behaviour therapy for clinical perfectionism: a case series

Objective: The construct of 'clinical perfectionism' has been developed in response to criticisms that other approaches have failed to yield advances in the treatment of the type of self-oriented perfectionism that poses a clinical problem. The primary aim of this study was to conduct a preliminary investigation into the efficacy of a theory-driven, cognitive-behavioural intervention for 'clinical perfectionism'. Design. A multiple baseline single case series design was used. Method: A specific, 10-session cognitive-behavioural intervention to address clinical perfectionism in eating disorders was adapted to allow its use in nine patients referred with a range of axis I disorders and clinical perfectionism. Results: The intervention led to clinically significant improvements in self-referential perfectionism from pretreatment to follow-up for six of the nine participants on two perfectionism measures and for three of the nine participants on the measure of clinical perfectionism. Statistically significant improvements from pre- to post-intervention for the group as a whole were found on all three measures. The improvements were maintained at follow-up. Conclusions: The finding that clinical perfectionism is improved in the majority of participants is particularly encouraging given that perfectionism has traditionally been viewed as a personality characteristic resistant to change. These preliminary findings warrant replication in a larger study.

Enhancing dominant modes in nonstationary time series by means of the symbolic resonance analysis

We present the symbolic resonance analysis (SRA) as a viable method for addressing the problem of enhancing a weakly dominant mode in a mixture of impulse responses obtained from a nonlinear dynamical system. We demonstrate this using results from a numerical simulation with Duffing oscillators in different domains of their parameter space, and by analyzing event-related brain potentials (ERPs) from a language processing experiment in German as a representative application. In this paradigm, the averaged ERPs exhibit an N400 followed by a sentence final negativity. Contemporary sentence processing models predict a late positivity (P600) as well. We show that the SRA is able to unveil the P600 evoked by the critical stimuli as a weakly dominant mode from the covering sentence final negativity. (c) 2007 American Institute of Physics. (c) 2007 American Institute of Physics.