Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Treatment of hyperactive children: increased efficiency through modifications of homeopathic diagnostic procedure

BACKGROUND: The rigorous test to which homeopathy was subject in our recent double-blind clinical trail of homeopathic treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) necessitated optimized treatment meeting the highest standards. METHODS: Optimization was performed in three steps: (1) In successfully treated children, prescriptions leading to an insufficient response were analysed by a general questionnaire to identify unreliable symptoms. (2) Polarity analysis, a further development of Bönninghausen's concept of contraindications, was introduced in response to the frequently one-sided symptoms. This enabled us to use few but specific symptoms to identify the medicine whose genius symptoms exhibit the closest match to the patient's characteristic symptoms. (3) We investigated the influence of the primary perception symptoms on the result of the repertorization. Perception symptoms are not normally recorded during a patient interview even though they are among the most reliable facts related by the patients. At the same time we were able to improve the continuity of improvement of ADHD symptoms using liquid Q-potencies. RESULTS: Introducing the questionnaire, polarity analysis, and including perception symptoms, lead to an improvement in the success rate of the first prescription from 21% to 54%, of the fifth prescription from 68% to 84%.

Diagnostic efficacy of SonoVue, a second generation contrast agent, in the assessment of extracranial carotid or peripheral arteries using colour and spectral Doppler ultrasound: a multicentre study

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the improvement in diagnostic quality and diagnostic accuracy of SonoVue microbubble contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CE-US) versus unenhanced ultrasound imaging during the investigation of extracranial carotid or peripheral arteries. 82 patients with suspected extracranial carotid or peripheral arterial disease received four SonoVue doses (0.3 ml, 0.6 ml, 1.2 ml and 2.4 ml) with Doppler ultrasound performed before and following each dose. Diagnostic quality of the CE-US examinations was evaluated off-site for duration of clinically useful contrast enhancement, artefact effects and percentage of examinations converted from non-diagnostic to diagnostic. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were assessed as agreement of CE-US diagnosis evaluated by an independent panel of experts with reference standard modality. The median duration of clinically useful signal enhancement significantly increased with increasing SonoVue doses (p< or =0.002). At the dose of 2.4 ml of SonoVue, diagnostic quality evaluated as number of inconclusive examinations significantly improved, falling from 40.7% at baseline down to 5.1%. Furthermore, SonoVue significantly (p<0.01) increased the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of assessment of disease compared with baseline ultrasound. SonoVue increases the diagnostic quality of Doppler images and improves the accuracy of both spectral and colour Doppler examinations of extracranial carotid or peripheral arterial disease.

Autofluorescence endoscopy in surveillance of Barrett's esophagus: a multicenter randomized trial on diagnostic efficacy

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The reference surveillance method in patients with Barrett's esophagus is careful endoscopic observation, with targeted as well as random four-quadrant biopsies. Autofluorescence endoscopy (AFE) may make it easier to locate neoplasia. The aim of this study was to elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of surveillance with AFE-guided plus four-quadrant biopsies in comparison with the conventional approach. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 187 of 200 consecutive Barrett's esophagus patients who were initially enrolled (73 % male, mean age 67 years, mean Barrett's segment length 4.6 cm), who underwent endoscopy for Barrett's esophagus in four study centers, were randomly assigned to undergo either AFE-targeted biopsy followed by four-quadrant biopsies or conventional endoscopic surveillance, also including four-quadrant biopsies (study phase 1). After exclusion of patients with early cancer or high-grade dysplasia, who underwent endoscopic or surgical treatment, as well as those who declined to participate in phase 2 of the study, 130 patients remained. These patients were examined again with the alternative method after a mean of 10 weeks, using the same methods described. The main study parameter was the detection of early cancer/adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia (HGD), comparing both approaches in study phase 1; the secondary study aim in phase 2 was to assess the additional value of the AFE-guided approach after conventional surveillance, and vice versa. Test accuracy measures were derived from study phase 1. RESULTS: In study phase 1, the AFE and conventional approaches yielded adenocarcinoma/HGD rates of 12 % and 5.3 %, respectively, on a per-patient basis. With AFE, four previously unrecognized adenocarcinoma/HGD lesions were identified (4.3 % of the patients); with the conventional approach, one new lesion (1.1 %) was identified. Of the 19 adenocarcinoma/HGD lesions detected during AFE endoscopy in study phase 1, eight were visualized, while 11 were only detected using untargeted four-quadrant biopsies (sensitivity 42 %). Of the 766 biopsies classified at histology as being nonneoplastic, 58 appeared suspicious (specificity 92 %, positive predictive value 12 %, negative predictive value 98.5 %). In study phase 2, AFE detected two further lesions in addition to the initial alternative approach in 3.2 % of cases, in comparison with one lesion with conventional endoscopy (1.7 %). CONCLUSIONS: In this referral Barrett's esophagus population with a higher prevalence of neoplastic lesions, the AFE-guided approach improved the diagnostic yield for neoplasia in comparison with the conventional approach using four-quadrant biopsies. However, AFE alone was not suitable for replacing the standard four-quadrant biopsy protocol.

Acute testicular torsion in children: the role of sonography in the diagnostic workup

Acute testicular torsion in children is an emergency and has to be diagnosed urgently. Doppler sonography is increasingly used in imaging the acute scrotum. Nevertheless, in uncertain cases, surgical exploration is required. In this study, we attempted to define the role of Doppler sonography in the diagnostic workup of the acutely painful scrotum. All patients admitted between 1999 and 2005 with acute scrotal pain were included. After clinical assessment, patients were imaged by Doppler sonography with a ''high-end'' instrument. In cases of absent arterial perfusion of the testis in Doppler sonography, surgical exploration was carried out. Patients with unaffected perfusion were followed clinically by ultrasound for up to 2 years. Sixty-one infants and children aged 1 day to 17 years (median: 7.9 years) were included. In 14 cases, sonography demonstrated absent central perfusion, with abnormal parenchymal echogenicity in six. Absence of venous blood flow together with reduction of central arterial perfusion was found in one infant. In these 15 patients, surgical exploration confirmed testicular torsion. Among the other 46 patients, we found four cases with increased testicular perfusion and 27 with increased perfusion of the epididymis. In one infant, a testicular tumour was found sonographically, and orchiectomy confirmed diagnosis of a teratoma. Follow-up examinations of the conservatively treated patients showed good clinical outcome with physiologic central perfusion as well as normal echogenic pattern of both testes. No case of testicular torsion was missed. By means of Doppler sonography, an unequivocal statement regarding testicular perfusion was possible in all cases. The initial Doppler diagnosis was confirmed by operative evaluation and follow-up ultrasound. Testicular torsion can therefore be excluded by correctly performed ultrasound with modern equipment.

[The importance of clinical information in diagnostic imaging in the febrile patient]

From conventional radiography to cross-sectional imaging methods, modern radiology offers a wide range of diagnostic tools for investigating patients with fever. To achieve the best results and to yield a correct diagnosis, the radiologist must tailor the diagnostic protocol individually for every patient. The decision on the most suitable imaging method, and the type and timing of contrast media strongly depends on the suspected diagnosis. Based on patient history and laboratory data, some modalities may be contraindicated or the patient may need a premedication. The authors give a short overview of diagnostic strategies in evaluating the most important causes of fever and point to the need of discussion and co-operation between clinicians and radiologists.

Diagnostic accuracy of coronary in-stent restenosis using 64-slice computed tomography: comparison with invasive coronary angiography

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of coronary binary in-stent restenosis (ISR) with angiography using 64-slice multislice computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) compared with invasive coronary angiography (ICA). BACKGROUND: A noninvasive detection of ISR would result in an easier and safer way to conduct patient follow-up. METHODS: We performed CTCA in 81 patients after stent implantation, and 125 stented lesions were scanned. Two sets of images were reconstructed with different types of convolution kernels. On CTCA, neointimal proliferation was visually evaluated according to luminal contrast attenuation inside the stent. Lesions were graded as follows: grade 1, none or slight neointimal proliferation; grade 2, neointimal proliferation with no significant stenosis (<50%); grade 3, neointimal proliferation with moderate stenosis (> or =50%); and grade 4, neointimal proliferation with severe stenosis (> or =75%). Grades 3 and 4 were considered binary ISR. The diagnostic accuracy of CTCA compared with ICA was evaluated. RESULTS: By ICA, 24 ISRs were diagnosed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 92%, 81%, 54%, and 98% for the overall population, whereas values were 91%, 93%, 77%, and 98% when excluding unassessable segments (15 segments, 12%). For assessable segments, CTCA correctly diagnosed 20 of the 22 ISRs detected by ICA. Six lesions without ISR were overestimated as ISR by CTCA. As the grade of neointimal proliferation by CTCA increases, the median value of percent diameter stenosis increased linearly. CONCLUSIONS: Binary ISR can be excluded with high probability by CTCA, with a moderate rate of false-positive results.

Diagnostic accuracy of 64-slice computed tomography for detecting angiographically significant coronary artery stenosis in an unselected consecutive patient population: comparison with conventional invasive angiography

BACKGROUND: Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) is a promising noninvasive method of detecting coronary artery disease (CAD). However, most data have been obtained in selected series of patients. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the accuracy of 64-slice MSCT (64 MSCT) in daily practice, without any patient selection. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using 64-slice MSCT coronary angiography (CTA), 69 consecutive patients, 39 (57%) of whom had previously undergone stent implantation, were evaluated. The mean heart rate during scan was 72 beats/min, scan time 13.6 s and the amount of contrast media 72 mL. The mean time span between invasive coronary angiography (ICAG) and CTA was 6 days. Significant stenosis was defined as a diameter reduction of > 50%. Of 966 segments, 884 (92%) were assessable. Compared with ICAG, the sensitivity of CTA to diagnose significant stenosis was 90%, specificity 94%, positive predictive value (PPV) 89% and negative predictive value (NPV) 95%. With regard to 58 stented lesions, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 93%, 96%, 87% and 98%, respectively. On the patient-based analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of CTA to detect CAD were 98%, 86%, 98% and 86%, respectively. Eighty-two (8%) segments were not assessable because of irregular rhythm, calcification or tachycardia. CONCLUSION: Sixty-four-MSCT has a high accuracy for the detection of significant CAD in an unselected patient population and therefore can be considered as a valuable noninvasive technique.

A Diagnostic Test for the Mixing Distribution in a Generalised Linear Mixed Model

We introduce a diagnostic test for the mixing distribution in a generalised linear mixed model. The test is based on the difference between the marginal maximum likelihood and conditional maximum likelihood estimates of a subset of the fixed effects in the model. We derive the asymptotic variance of this difference, and propose a test statistic that has a limiting chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis that the mixing distribution is correctly specified. For the important special case of the logistic regression model with random intercepts, we evaluate via simulation the power of the test in finite samples under several alternative distributional forms for the mixing distribution. We illustrate the method by applying it to data from a clinical trial investigating the effects of hormonal contraceptives in women.

RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS IN A META-ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS WITHIN A GOLD STANDARD IN THE PRESENCE OF MISSING DATA

In evaluating the accuracy of diagnosis tests, it is common to apply two imperfect tests jointly or sequentially to a study population. In a recent meta-analysis of the accuracy of microsatellite instability testing (MSI) and traditional mutation analysis (MUT) in predicting germline mutations of the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, a Bayesian approach (Chen, Watson, and Parmigiani 2005) was proposed to handle missing data resulting from partial testing and the lack of a gold standard. In this paper, we demonstrate an improved estimation of the sensitivities and specificities of MSI and MUT by using a nonlinear mixed model and a Bayesian hierarchical model, both of which account for the heterogeneity across studies through study-specific random effects. The methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of two imperfect diagnostic tests in other meta-analyses when the prevalence of disease, the sensitivities and/or the specificities of diagnostic tests are heterogeneous among studies. Furthermore, simulation studies have demonstrated the importance of carefully selecting appropriate random effects on the estimation of diagnostic accuracy measurements in this scenario.

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

A unification of models for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies

Studies of diagnostic accuracy require more sophisticated methods for their meta-analysis than studies of therapeutic interventions. A number of different, and apparently divergent, methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies have been proposed, including two alternative approaches that are statistically rigorous and allow for between-study variability: the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) model (Rutter and Gatsonis, 2001) and bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (van Houwelingen and others, 1993), (van Houwelingen and others, 2002), (Reitsma and others, 2005). We show that these two models are very closely related, and define the circumstances in which they are identical. We discuss the different forms of summary model output suggested by the two approaches, including summary ROC curves, summary points, confidence regions, and prediction regions.

Validation and diagnostic efficacy of a TaqMan real-time PCR for the detection of Mycoplasma conjunctivae in the eyes of infected Caprinae

Infectious keratoconjunctivitis (IKC), caused by Mycoplasma conjunctivae, is a highly contagious ocular disease in Caprinae. To detect rapidly and sensitively M. conjunctivae from individual conjunctival swabs of infected domestic and wild animals, a specific real-time PCR was developed using an lppS-directed hydrolysis probe in a TaqMan platform.