A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations.

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions between alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This work investigates the influence of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1,503 participants is obtained and a Mixed Logit Model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker, and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model points out that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main contribution of this work is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Importancia de la auditoria de seguridad vial (ASV) en las concesiones viales de Colombia

134 p.

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Stimuli-Responsive Microneedle Arrays For On-Demand Drug Delivery

Pulsatile, or “on-demand”, delivery systems have the capability to deliver a therapeutic molecule at the right time/site of action and in the right amount (1). Pulsatile delivery systems present multiple benefits over conventional dosage forms and provide higher patient compliance. The combination of stimuli-responsive materials with the drug delivery capabilities of hydrogel-forming MN arrays (2) opens an interesting area of research. In the present work we describe, a stimuli-responsive hydrogel-forming microneedle (MN) array that enable delivery of a clinically-relevant model drug (ibuprofen) upon application of UV radiation (Figure 1A). MN arrays were prepared using a micromolding technique using a polymer prepared from 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) (Figure 1B). The arrays were loaded with up to 5% (w/w) ibuprofen included in a light-responsible conjugate (3,5-dimethoxybenzoin conjugate) (2). The presence of the conjugate inside the MN arrays was confirmed by Raman spectroscopy measurements. MN arrays were tested in vitro showing that they were able to deliver up to three doses of 50 mg of ibuprofen after application of an optical trigger (wavelength of 365 nm) over a long period of time (up to 160 hours) (Figure 1C and 1D). The work presented here is a probe of concept and a modified version of the system should be used as UV radiation is shown to be the major etiologic agent in the development of skin cancers. Consequently, for future applications of this technology an alternative design should be developed. Based on the previous research dealing with hydrogel forming MN arrays a suitable strategy will be to use hydrogel-forming MN arrays containing a backing layer made with the material described in this work as the drug reservoir (2). Finally, a porous layer of a material that blocks UV radiation should be included between the MN array and the drug reservoir. Therefore radiation can be applied to the system without reaching the skin surface. Therefore after modification, the system described here interesting properties as “on-demand” release system for prolonged periods of time. This technology has potential for use in “on-demand” delivery of a wide range of drugs in a variety of applications relevant to enhanced patient care.

Integrating electrical vehicles to demand side response scheme in Queensland Australia

Depleting fossil fuel resources and increased accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly making electrical vehicles (EV) attractive option for the transportation sector. However uncontrolled random charging and discharging of EVs may aggravate the problems of an already stressed system during the peak demand and cause voltage problems during low demand. This paper develops a demand side response scheme for properly integrating EVs in the Electrical Network. The scheme enacted upon information on electricity market conditions regularly released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the internet. The scheme adopts Internet relays and solid state switches to cycle charging and discharging of EVs. Due to the pending time-of-use and real-price programs, financial benefits will represent driving incentives to consumers to implement the scheme. A wide-scale dissemination of the scheme is expected to mitigate excessive peaks on the electrical network with all associated technical, economic and social benefits.

A novel real time pricing scheme for demand response in residential distribution systems

Price based technique is one way to handle increase in peak demand and deal with voltage violations in residential distribution systems. This paper proposes an improved real time pricing scheme for residential customers with demand response option. Smart meters and in-home display units are used to broadcast the price and appropriate load adjustment signals. Customers are given an opportunity to respond to the signals and adjust the loads. This scheme helps distribution companies to deal with overloading problems and voltage issues in a more efficient way. Also, variations in wholesale electricity prices are passed on to electricity customers to take collective measure to reduce network peak demand. It is ensured that both customers and utility are benefitted by this scheme.

A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Price Premium for High-Efficiency Refrigerators and Calculation of Price-Elasticities for Close-Substitutes: Combining Hedonic Pricing and Demand Systems

21 p.

Resource Management for Responsive Web Computing

The exploding demand for services like the World Wide Web reflects the potential that is presented by globally distributed information systems. The number of WWW servers world-wide has doubled every 3 to 5 months since 1993, outstripping even the growth of the Internet. At each of these self-managed sites, the Common Gateway Interface (CGI) and Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) already constitute a rudimentary basis for contributing local resources to remote collaborations. However, the Web has serious deficiencies that make it unsuited for use as a true medium for metacomputing --- the process of bringing hardware, software, and expertise from many geographically dispersed sources to bear on large scale problems. These deficiencies are, paradoxically, the direct result of the very simple design principles that enabled its exponential growth. There are many symptoms of the problems exhibited by the Web: disk and network resources are consumed extravagantly; information search and discovery are difficult; protocols are aimed at data movement rather than task migration, and ignore the potential for distributing computation. However, all of these can be seen as aspects of a single problem: as a distributed system for metacomputing, the Web offers unpredictable performance and unreliable results. The goal of our project is to use the Web as a medium (within either the global Internet or an enterprise intranet) for metacomputing in a reliable way with performance guarantees. We attack this problem one four levels: (1) Resource Management Services: Globally distributed computing allows novel approaches to the old problems of performance guarantees and reliability. Our first set of ideas involve setting up a family of real-time resource management models organized by the Web Computing Framework with a standard Resource Management Interface (RMI), a Resource Registry, a Task Registry, and resource management protocols to allow resource needs and availability information be collected and disseminated so that a family of algorithms with varying computational precision and accuracy of representations can be chosen to meet realtime and reliability constraints. (2) Middleware Services: Complementary to techniques for allocating and scheduling available resources to serve application needs under realtime and reliability constraints, the second set of ideas aim at reduce communication latency, traffic congestion, server work load, etc. We develop customizable middleware services to exploit application characteristics in traffic analysis to drive new server/browser design strategies (e.g., exploit self-similarity of Web traffic), derive document access patterns via multiserver cooperation, and use them in speculative prefetching, document caching, and aggressive replication to reduce server load and bandwidth requirements. (3) Communication Infrastructure: Finally, to achieve any guarantee of quality of service or performance, one must get at the network layer that can provide the basic guarantees of bandwidth, latency, and reliability. Therefore, the third area is a set of new techniques in network service and protocol designs. (4) Object-Oriented Web Computing Framework A useful resource management system must deal with job priority, fault-tolerance, quality of service, complex resources such as ATM channels, probabilistic models, etc., and models must be tailored to represent the best tradeoff for a particular setting. This requires a family of models, organized within an object-oriented framework, because no one-size-fits-all approach is appropriate. This presents a software engineering challenge requiring integration of solutions at all levels: algorithms, models, protocols, and profiling and monitoring tools. The framework captures the abstract class interfaces of the collection of cooperating components, but allows the concretization of each component to be driven by the requirements of a specific approach and environment.

Optimal Scheduling of Secondary Content for Aggregation in Video-on-Demand Systems

Dynamic service aggregation techniques can exploit skewed access popularity patterns to reduce the costs of building interactive VoD systems. These schemes seek to cluster and merge users into single streams by bridging the temporal skew between them, thus improving server and network utilization. Rate adaptation and secondary content insertion are two such schemes. In this paper, we present and evaluate an optimal scheduling algorithm for inserting secondary content in this scenario. The algorithm runs in polynomial time, and is optimal with respect to the total bandwidth usage over the merging interval. We present constraints on content insertion which make the overall QoS of the delivered stream acceptable, and show how our algorithm can satisfy these constraints. We report simulation results which quantify the excellent gains due to content insertion. We discuss dynamic scenarios with user arrivals and interactions, and show that content insertion reduces the channel bandwidth requirement to almost half. We also discuss differentiated service techniques, such as N-VoD and premium no-advertisement service, and show how our algorithm can support these as well.

Hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays made from light-responsive materials for on-demand transdermal drug delivery

We describe, for the first time, stimuli-responsive hydrogel-forming microneedle (MN) arrays that enable delivery of a clinically-relevant model drug (ibuprofen) upon application of light. MN arrays were prepared using a polymer prepared from 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) by micromolding. The obtained MN arrays showed good mechanical properties. The system was loaded with up to 5% (w/w) ibuprofen included in a light-responsive 3,5-dimethoxybenzoin conjugate. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the presence of the conjugate inside the polymeric MN matrix. In vitro, this system was able to deliver up to three doses of 50 mg of ibuprofen upon application of an optical trigger over a prolonged period of time (up to 160 hours). This makes the system appealing as a controlled release device for prolonged periods of time. We believe that this technology has potential for use in ?on-demand? delivery of a wide range of drugs in a variety of applications relevant to enhanced patient care.