The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

Decision-making algorithms in geometric modelling

Many of the applications of geometric modelling are concerned with the computation of well-defined properties of the model. The applications which have received less attention are those which address questions to which there is no unique answer. This thesis describes such an application: the automatic production of a dimensioned engineering drawing. One distinctive feature of this operation is the requirement for sophisticated decision-making algorithms at each stage in the processing of the geometric model. Hence, the thesis is focussed upon the design, development and implementation of such algorithms. Various techniques for geometric modelling are briefly examined and then details are given of the modelling package that was developed for this project, The principles of orthographic projection and dimensioning are treated and some published work on the theory of dimensioning is examined. A new theoretical approach to dimensioning is presented and discussed. The existing body of knowledge on decision-making is sampled and the author then shows how methods which were originally developed for management decisions may be adapted to serve the purposes of this project. The remainder of the thesis is devoted to reports on the development of decision-making algorithms for orthographic view selection, sectioning and crosshatching, the preparation of orthographic views with essential hidden detail, and two approaches to the actual insertion of dimension lines and text. The thesis concludes that the theories of decision-making can be applied to work of this kind. It may be possible to generate computer solutions that are closer to the optimum than some man-made dimensioning schemes. Further work on important details is required before a commercially acceptable package could be produced.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

Ranking efficient decision-making units in data envelopment analysis using fuzzy concept

This paper introduces a new mathematical method for improving the discrimination power of data envelopment analysis and to completely rank the efficient decision-making units (DMUs). Fuzzy concept is utilised. For this purpose, first all DMUs are evaluated with the CCR model. Thereafter, the resulted weights for each output are considered as fuzzy sets and are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The introduced model is a multi-objective linear model, endpoints of which are the highest and lowest of the weighted values. An added advantage of the model is its ability to handle the infeasibility situation sometimes faced by previously introduced models.

Teacher logs and interactive decision-making:a case study of contingencies in an EFL organizational culture and the implications for teacher development for part-time teachers

This is a case study of a program of native speaker part-time EFL (English as a Foreign Language) teachers in a junior college in Japan. It has grown out of a curiosity to ascertain how the teachers have formed and continue to maintain a coordinated program in what would seem to be a disadvantageous national context where as part-time foreign teachers they are expected to do little more than just teach a few classes of mainly oral English. This study investigates the organizational culture the teachers have formed for themselves within their staffroom, and looks at the implications of this for part-time teachers in such an environment. More specifically, the study highlights that central to the program is an interactive decision-making function engaged in by all the teachers which has not only created but also continually enables an identifiable staffroom culture. This organizational culture is contingent on college and staffroom conditions, program affordances such as shared class logs and curriculum sharing, and on the interactive decision-making itself. It is postulated that the contingencies formed in this created and continually creating shared world not only offer the teachers a proficient way to work in their severely time-constricted environment, but also provide them with fertile ground for the self-regulation of a thus created zone of covert staffroom ‘on-the-job’ teacher development.

Public sector investment appraisal:the place of flexibility in the decision making process

This thesis reviews the main methodological developments in public sector investment appraisal and finds growing evidence that appraisal techniques are not fulfilling their earlier promise. It is suggested that an important reason for this failure lies in the inability of these techniques to handle uncertainty except in a highly circumscribed fashion. It is argued that a more fruitful approach is to strive for flexibility. Investment projects should be formulated with a view to making them responsive to a wide range of possible future events, rather than embodying a solution which is optimal for one configuration of circumstances only. The distinction drawn in economics between the short and the long run is used to examine the nature of flexibility. The concept of long run flexibility is applied to the pre-investment range of choice open to the decisionmaker. It is demonstrated that flexibility is reduced at a very early stage of decisionmaking by the conventional system of appraisal which evaluates only a small number of options. The pre-appraisal filtering process is considered further in relation to decisionmaking models. It is argued that for public sector projects the narrowing down of options is best understood in relation to an amended mixed scanning model which places importance on the process by which the 'national interest ' is determined. Short run flexibility deals with operational characteristics, the degree to which particular projects may respond to changing demands when the basic investment is already in place. The tension between flexibility and cost is noted. A short case study on the choice of electricity generating plant is presented. The thesis concludes with a brief examination of the approaches used by successive British governments to public sector investment, particularly in relation to the nationalised industries

A reevaluation of achromatic spatio-temporal vision: nonoriented filters are monocular, they adapt, and can be used for decision making at high flicker speeds

Masking, adaptation, and summation paradigms have been used to investigate the characteristics of early spatio-temporal vision. Each has been taken to provide evidence for (i) oriented and (ii) nonoriented spatial-filtering mechanisms. However, subsequent findings suggest that the evidence for nonoriented mechanisms has been misinterpreted: those experiments might have revealed the characteristics of suppression (eg, gain control), not excitation, or merely the isotropic subunits of the oriented detecting mechanisms. To shed light on this, we used all three paradigms to focus on the ‘high-speed’ corner of spatio-temporal vision (low spatial frequency, high temporal frequency), where cross-oriented achromatic effects are greatest. We used flickering Gabor patches as targets and a 2IFC procedure for monocular, binocular, and dichoptic stimulus presentations. To account for our results, we devised a simple model involving an isotropic monocular filter-stage feeding orientation-tuned binocular filters. Both filter stages are adaptable, and their outputs are available to the decision stage following nonlinear contrast transduction. However, the monocular isotropic filters (i) adapt only to high-speed stimuli—consistent with a magnocellular subcortical substrate—and (ii) benefit decision making only for high-speed stimuli (ie, isotropic monocular outputs are available only for high-speed stimuli). According to this model, the visual processes revealed by masking, adaptation, and summation are related but not identical.

Planning and decision-making for energy recovery from waste at the sub-regional level

This research project has developed a novel decision support system using Geographical Information Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and used it to develop and evaluate energy-from-waste policy options. The system was validated by applying it to the UK administrative areas of Cornwall and Warwickshire. Different strategies have been defined by the size and number of the facilities, as well as the technology chosen. Using sensitivity on the results from the decision support system, it was found that key decision criteria included those affected by cost, energy efficiency, transport impacts and air/dioxin emissions. The conclusions of this work are that distributed small-scale energy-from-waste facilities score most highly overall and that scale is more important than technology design in determining overall policy impact. This project makes its primary contribution to energy-from-waste planning by its development of a Decision Support System that can be used to assist waste disposal authorities to identify preferred energy-from-waste options that have been tailored specifically to the socio-geographic characteristics of their jurisdictional areas. The project also highlights the potential of energy-from-waste policies that are seldom given enough attention to in the UK, namely those of a smaller-scale and distributed nature that often have technology designed specifically to cater for this market.

Does reviewing lead to better learning and decision making? Answers from a randomized stock market experiment

Background - The literature is not univocal about the effects of Peer Review (PR) within the context of constructivist learning. Due to the predominant focus on using PR as an assessment tool, rather than a constructivist learning activity, and because most studies implicitly assume that the benefits of PR are limited to the reviewee, little is known about the effects upon students who are required to review their peers. Much of the theoretical debate in the literature is focused on explaining how and why constructivist learning is beneficial. At the same time these discussions are marked by an underlying presupposition of a causal relationship between reviewing and deep learning. Objectives - The purpose of the study is to investigate whether the writing of PR feedback causes students to benefit in terms of: perceived utility about statistics, actual use of statistics, better understanding of statistical concepts and associated methods, changed attitudes towards market risks, and outcomes of decisions that were made. Methods - We conducted a randomized experiment, assigning students randomly to receive PR or non–PR treatments and used two cohorts with a different time span. The paper discusses the experimental design and all the software components that we used to support the learning process: Reproducible Computing technology which allows students to reproduce or re–use statistical results from peers, Collaborative PR, and an AI–enhanced Stock Market Engine. Results - The results establish that the writing of PR feedback messages causes students to experience benefits in terms of Behavior, Non–Rote Learning, and Attitudes, provided the sequence of PR activities are maintained for a period that is sufficiently long.

Design of a novel solar thermal collector using a multi-criteria decision-making methodology

Three novel solar thermal collector concepts derived from the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) are developed and evaluated through a multi-criteria decision-making methodology, comprising the following techniques: Quality Function Deployment (QFD), the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Pugh selection matrix. Criteria are specified by technical and customer requirements gathered from Gujarat, India. The concepts are compared to a standard LFR for reference, and as a result, a novel 'Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector' (ELFR) concept using elevating mirrors is selected. A detailed version of this concept is proposed and compared against two standard LFR configurations, one using constant and the other using variable horizontal mirror spacing. Annual performance is analysed for a typical meteorological year. Financial assessment is made through the construction of a prototype. The novel LFR has an annual optical efficiency of 49% and increases exergy by 13-23%. Operational hours above a target temperature of 300 C are increased by 9-24%. A 17% reduction in land usage is also achievable. However, the ELFR suffers from additional complexity and a 16-28% increase in capital cost. It is concluded that this novel design is particularly promising for industrial applications and locations with restricted land availability or high land costs. The decision analysis methodology adopted is considered to have a wider potential for applications in the fields of renewable energy and sustainable design. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.