Processo de formulação estratégica sob a perspectiva dos decisores da CAERN

Os estudos sobre estratégia têm se difundido há muitos anos e seu processo de formulação também está inserido no cotidiano dos gestores. O objetivo do presente trabalho é constatar se há relação entre o pensamento, formulação e mudança estratégica e o nível acadêmico, hierárquico e tempo no cargo dos decisores da CAERN. A abordagem teórica é realizada com os seguintes pontos: estratégia, Decisão e liderança organizacional e o processo de formação da estratégia (Pensamento estratégico; Formulação da estratégia; Mudança estratégica). O estudo é de caráter exploratório descritivo. Para a tabulação e análise dos dados, utilizou-se um programa estatístico em que foi adotada a técnica de análise fatorial, e verificou-se a confiabilidade da escala de Likert utilizada no questionário através do teste Alfa de Cronbach e análise de Spearman a fim de constatar a correlação das variáveis e proporcionar uma abordagem quantitativa à pesquisa. Todos os respondentes da pesquisa são tomadores de decisão cujos níveis hierárquicos que obtiveram representatividade na amostra foram coordenadores, gerentes e chefes de seção. A partir das análises dos resultados do estudo, constatou-se que, das hipóteses levantadas, apenas uma se mostrou coerente com a realidade dos profissionais responsáveis pela estratégia organizacional da empresa: Há correlação entre a formulação estratégica e o nível acadêmico dos decisores (no constructo de formulação deliberada). Notouse também que o nível de formação acadêmica (nível superior) é importante e influencia diretamente no processo da formulação estratégica. Conclui-se que na organização em estudo o conhecimento dos gestores interfere na formulação estratégica

Modelo de decisão multicritério para seleções interciclo das universidades novas: estudo na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

The discussions wherein develop proposals for university reform in Brazil include, among other things, the conception of the university titled "New University", whose structural origin comes from the bill of higher education reform and unification of the foundations of education European upper (Bologna process). At its core, the Bologna process has imposed a series of transformations, among which, the promotion of mobility, as a stimulus to interinstitutional cooperation to enable an better and bigger qualification of the students. Nevertheless, what we see is that this point is one of the main points made flawed by Brazilian institutions that have adopted this model of higher education. An example is the Bachelor of Science and Technology - BC&T, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, where there are problems of the internal order, represented by the problem of the reusing of the disciplines, such also of external order, in cases of transfers interinstitutional. Because of this, and knowing that this is a typical problem in which multiple criteria are involved, the aim of this study is to propose a multicriteria model for selection of interciclo of the BC&T of the UFRN which addresses the issue of mobility. For this, this study was of exploratory and study case nature, use as tools of data collection, the bibliographic and documentary research, as well as semi-structured interviews. For the elaboration of the model, were used the five phases most commonly used in the modeling of problems in operational research in a sample of 91 students of BC&T. As a result, we obtained a model that addresses the issue of internal and external mobility of the school and that, moreover, was also more robust and fair than the current model of BC&T and also what is used in other courses of the UFRN, taking into consideration the expected results by the decision makers

Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Are we positively or negatively affected? : A study on how people react to food-related communication messages

Background- Communication messages today are all about influencing and persuading people. Two main types of messages can be seen when studying the healthy food trend on Instagram and how it is impacting attitude formation and change; these two are positive and negative messages. However, different communication messages are not the only deciders of attitude formation and change. There is one more significant factor that impacts attitude formation and change; this factor is identification with the message sender. Purpose- The purpose of this thesis is to identify whether positively or negatively themed messages on Instagram have a stronger impact on a person's attitudes regarding healthy food consumption. We will further examine if identification with the message sender additionally impacts attitude formation and change. Method- In order to fulfill the purpose of the thesis we used a qualitative research approach. We conducted interviews with 40 respondents that belonged to our main target group. Furthermore we conducted a robustness check with six respondents. All 46 respondents included in the qualitative study were Instagram users, and all the respondents in the main target group were students. Findings and Conclusion- After analyzing the empirical results together with suitable theories, some main conclusions could be drawn. The study demonstrated that positive communication messages are the preferred message type on Instagram. We further conclude that identification with the message sender does indeed have an additional impact on attitude formation and change. Based on this study we can say that communication messages and identification with the message sender work together in forming and changing attitudes regarding healthy food on Instagram. Practical Implications- This thesis gives valuable indications to companies, organizations and decision makers in order to direct marketing practices in terms of communication messages on social media, particularly Instagram. Moreover it gives insights for managers to be able to create communication messages that correspond to the expectations of the society. Keywords- Communication messages, attitude formation and change, identification with the message sender.

Indicadores energéticos: instrumentos de apoio ao desenvolvimento sustentável

Energy indicators are tools to support decision-making on energy. The growing debate on sustainable development, contributed to the energy indicators began to incorporate, besides the traditional economic, social and environmental information. Therefore, taking sustainable development into account, it is important to know contributions and limitations of these tools. The overall goal of this study is to analyze the contributions and limitations of the energy indicators as assets to support sustainable development.This study can be classified as descriptive because it relies on bibliographical and documental material. As a result of documental analysis, 55 energy indicators for sustainable development (EISD) were selected. The selection took place by identification of those indicators through the institutions International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Helio International and World Energy Council (WEC), among 19 institutions involved in research on energy identified in the survey. The study stresses that most of the selected indicators focuses on the economic dimension, 19 EISDs (34.54%), followed by 10 EISDs (18.18%) focused on the environmental dimension, 9 EISDs (16.36%) focused on the social issues, 7 EISDs (12.45%) are classified as resilience, 4 EISDs (7.27%) is about governance, 3 EISDs (5.45%) focused on vulnerability and 3 EISDs (5.45%) is about policy. Despite the inclusion of indicators associated with other dimensions than economy, information provided by those indicators emerges as their own limitation. Because, recently, indicators’ information were used to promote sustainable development as well as the opposite. Additionally, the study identified EISDs whose components were not specified. They may enable generation of information far from the real scenario, if components dissociated EISD would be taking into consideration or even the non-consideration of relevant components. Despite limitations, EISDs assisting decision-makers contributes to the pursuit of sustainable development. But they may be improved through information about environmental issues, such as emission of atmospheric pollutants, soil and water, resulting from energy sources, helps identifying which sources are more or less harmful for sustainable development. However, difficulty in collecting data, identifying the components for calculation of each indicator and even interpretation of this, as analyzed, may not only fail to contribute to sustainable development, as can delay taking corrective or preventive decisions.

Musikalisches Involviertsein als Modell kultureller Teilhabe und Teilnahme

In recent years, the concept of cultural participation has become very popular both in the scientific context as well as in the political discourse. Despite that, a sound definition of the construct allowing for solid empirical data collection and analysis is still missing. While this is a major obstacle for researchers, society and political decision makers ask for evidence-based knowledge concerning the effects and benefits of cultural education and assistant measures. Based on Amartya Sen’s “Capability Approach” and on a broad conception of culture, the authors try to fill this gap and propose a theoretical model of “musical involvement” to describe cultural participation in music. (DIPF/Orig.)

An examination of the techniques used to capture mangrove crabs, Ucides cordatus, in the Mamanguape River estuary, Northeastern Brazil, with implications for management.

The present research, undertaken in a mangrove swamp in northeastern Brazil (Mamanguape River Estuary), examined the factors that led to the overwhelming acceptance of the tangle-netting technique by crab harvesters in detriment to the now illegal tamping technique. Both techniques are the only ones currently used at our study site and in many other areas in Brazil, despite being prohibited by law. Data were collected through direct observations to determine capture efficiency, productivity, daily production, selectivity, and harvesting effort, and through interviews with crab harvesters, focusing on their perceptions of the capture techniques, the conditions of crab stocks and the sales price of a dozen crabs. Our results indicated that the two capture techniques did not significantly differ in terms of their efficiency or productivity, but daily production rates differed significantly, being greater using tangle-netting. The tangle-netting permits a greater harvesting effort (6 hours and 34 min) compared to tamping (4 hours and 19 min). Tangle-netting is also less selective than tamping indicated by the larger number of captured smaller specimens, including females. This results in a lower average sales price for a dozen crabs caught by tangle-netting (US$ 0.95) compared to tamping (US$ 1.02). The greater daily production of crab harvesters using the tangle-netting technique nevertheless increased their net gain, explaining their preference for this method, Given that tangle-netting results in greater harvesting pressure but lower selectivity compared to tamping, it may potentially be less sustainable. All of the crab harvesters interviewed having more than 20 years of experience (n = 34) stated they perceived that stocks of U. cordatus had become reduced over the last 20 years, together with average crab sizes. It is now important to examine the structure of the local U. cordatus population and to assess its fishery to allow evaluating whether the illegal, but prominent tangle-netting and tamping mangrove crab capture techniques are sustainable or not. We further suggest improving the dialogue between decision makers and fishermen, which barely exists to date, to initiate a discussion about possible ways of resolving the current situation of illegality of the fishermen. This will be key to achieving effective sustainable co-management of this important natural mangrove forest resource.

Główne determinanty polityki bezpieczeństwa Izraela na początku XXI wieku

Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa

Conhecimento sobre currículo de química de professores peritos da 7ª classe no sistema educativo angolano

O estudo desenvolveu-se no âmbito do sistema educativo angolano, com professores peritos de Química que lecionavam a 7a classe (12-13 anos de idade), com o objetivo de caraterizar o conhecimento desses professores sobre o currículo tendo em conta que o currículo de qualquer disciplina e de qualquer nível de ensino representa as aprendizagens consideradas relevantes pelos decisores devendo considerar as capacidades e aspirações do aluno, a língua, o meio e a cultura, a história e a arte, as exigências de trabalho e as interações de caráter societal. Dai que o professor, para poder planear as atividades de ensino e aprendizagem, tem, necessariamente, de conhecer o currículo no sentido de proporcionar ao educando os saberes da disciplina e explorar as articulações necessárias para a sua digna integração na complexa sociedade atual. Para o efeito, entrevistamos 16 professores selecionados como peritos. Num desenho metodológico exploratório, a técnica utilizada foi a entrevista e os dados foram submetidos à análise de conteúdo e categorizados. Os resultados revelaram que os professores peritos manifestaram um considerável domínio de conhecimento do currículo de Química e valorizaram a articulação vertical e horizontal dos seus conteúdos.

Informational lobbying in the European Union: Explaining information supply to the European Commission

Information supply is an important instrument through which interest groups can exert influence on political decisions. However, information supply to decision-makers varies extensively across interest groups. How can this be explained? Why do some interest groups provide more information than others? I argue that variation in information supply can largely be explained by organizational characteristics, more specifically the resources, the functional differentiation, the professionalization and the decentralization of interest groups. I test my theoretical expectations based on a large new dataset: Using multilevel modeling, I examine information supply to the European Commission across 56 policy issues and a wide range of interest groups by combining an analysis of consultation submissions with a survey conducted among interest groups.

Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

Transfert de connaissances et politiques publiques : le cas de la politique de gratuité des soins au Niger

Au Niger, le taux de mortalité maternelle est estimé à 535 décès pour 100 000 naissances vivantes (INS, 2013) et la probabilité pour un nouveau-né de mourir avant l’âge d’un mois est de 33 ‰. Depuis 2006, le Niger a mis en place une politique de gratuité des soins pour les femmes enceintes et les enfants de 0 à 5 ans, ce qui a contribué à une amélioration significative de la fréquentation des centres de santé. En mars 2012, un processus délibératif fut organisé pendant une conférence de trois jours pour échanger sur les acquis, limites et perspectives de cette nouvelle politique avec 160 participants dont des chercheurs, des humanitaires, des décideurs politiques et des intervenants sur le terrain. L’objectif de cette recherche est de comprendre les effets de cette conférence ainsi que d’explorer les activités du comité de suivi de la feuille de route. La recherche a été réalisée durant deux mois en été 2014 à Niamey et à N’guiguimi. Elle a reposé sur l’utilisation du cadre conceptuel de Boyko et al., (2012) qui permet de décrire les principales caractéristiques et les effets attendus des dialogues délibératifs et comprendre comment les dialogues délibératifs peuvent contribuer à l’élaboration de politiques sur la base de données probantes. Nous avons mis un accent particulier sur les trois formes d’utilisation des connaissances présentées par Dagenais et al., (2013) : instrumentale, conceptuelle et persuasive. Des entretiens semi-directifs ont été effectués avec 22 acteurs impliqués dans la mise en oeuvre des recommandations. Ils ont été enregistrés, retranscrits intégralement et traités avec le logiciel QDA Miner. Les résultats de l’analyse des discours recueillis révèlent une utilisation instrumentale des recommandations et plus visible chez les humanitaires que les décideurs et les acteurs de la société civile. Il ressort aussi de cette analyse une utilisation conceptuelle et persuasive des recommandations à un degré plus faible parmi tous les acteurs. Le comité de suivi de la feuille route de la conférence n’a pratiquement pas fonctionné, par conséquent, le processus n’a pas eu l’impact souhaité. Les principales raisons de cet échec sont liées au contexte de mise en oeuvre des recommandations (arrestation de plusieurs agents du ministère de la Santé publique qui sont des membres clés du comité de suivi à cause du détournement des fonds GAVI, manque de volonté technique et politique) et/ou aux conditions financières (absence de primes pour les membres du comité et de budget de fonctionnement.). Les iv résultats obtenus ont permis de comprendre les énormes défis (contextuels, financiers notamment) qui restent à relever en matière de transfert de connaissance dans le secteur de santé publique au Niger. En ce qui concerne la suite de la conférence, il faudrait accélérer la redynamisation du comité de suivi en le dotant d’un fonds de fonctionnement et en créant une agence autonome de gestion de la gratuité des soins; et renforcer le soutien politique autour de l’Initiative Santé Solidarité Sahel.

Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

Sorghum Crop Modeling and Its Utility in Agronomy and Breeding

Crop models are simplified mathematical representations of the interacting biological and environmental components of the dynamic soil–plant–environment system. Sorghum crop modeling has evolved in parallel with crop modeling capability in general, since its origins in the 1960s and 1970s. Here we briefly review the trajectory in sorghum crop modeling leading to the development of advanced models. We then (i) overview the structure and function of the sorghum model in the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) to exemplify advanced modeling concepts that suit both agronomic and breeding applications, (ii) review an example of use of sorghum modeling in supporting agronomic management decisions, (iii) review an example of the use of sorghum modeling in plant breeding, and (iv) consider implications for future roles of sorghum crop modeling. Modeling and simulation provide an avenue to explore consequences of crop management decision options in situations confronted with risks associated with seasonal climate uncertainties. Here we consider the possibility of manipulating planting configuration and density in sorghum as a means to manipulate the productivity–risk trade-off. A simulation analysis of decision options is presented and avenues for its use with decision-makers discussed. Modeling and simulation also provide opportunities to improve breeding efficiency by either dissecting complex traits to more amenable targets for genetics and breeding, or by trait evaluation via phenotypic prediction in target production regions to help prioritize effort and assess breeding strategies. Here we consider studies on the stay-green trait in sorghum, which confers yield advantage in water-limited situations, to exemplify both aspects. The possible future roles of sorghum modeling in agronomy and breeding are discussed as are opportunities related to their synergistic interaction. The potential to add significant value to the revolution in plant breeding associated with genomic technologies is identified as the new modeling frontier.

Evaluating consumer price perception: a mental accounting and frame dependent perspective

In this thesis, we evaluate consumer purchase behaviour from the perspective of heuristic decision making. Heuristic decision processes are quick and easy mental shortcuts, adopted by individuals to reduce the amount of time spent in decision making. In particular, we examine those heuristics which are caused by framing – prospect theory and mental accounting, and examine these within price related decision scenarios. The impact of price framing on consumer behaviour has been studied under the broad umbrella of reference price, which suggests that decision makers use reference points as standards of comparison when making a purchase decision. We investigate four reference points - a retailer's past prices, a competitor's current prices, a competitor's past prices, and consumers' expectation of immediate future price changes, to further our understanding of the impact of price framing on mental accounting, and in turn, contribute to the growing body of reference price literature in Marketing research. We carry out experiments in which levels of price frame and monetary outcomes are manipulated in repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA). Our results show that where these reference points are clearly specified in decision problems, price framing significantly affects consumers' perceptions of monetary gains derived through discounts, and leads to reversals in consumer preferences. We also found that monetary losses were not sensitive to price frame manipulations.