Inverse forecasting:a new approach for predictive modelling

In the last two decades there have been substantial developments in the mathematical theory of inverse optimization problems, and their applications have expanded greatly. In parallel, time series analysis and forecasting have become increasingly important in various fields of research such as data mining, economics, business, engineering, medicine, politics, and many others. Despite the large uses of linear programming in forecasting models there is no a single application of inverse optimization reported in the forecasting literature when the time series data is available. Thus the goal of this paper is to introduce inverse optimization into forecasting field, and to provide a streamlined approach to time series analysis and forecasting using inverse linear programming. An application has been used to demonstrate the use of inverse forecasting developed in this study. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a co-operative distributed process mining system for quality assurance

In this paper, a co-operative distributed process mining system (CDPMS) is developed to streamline the workflow along the supply chain in order to offer shorter delivery times, more flexibility and higher customer satisfaction with learning ability. The proposed system is equipped with the ‘distributed process mining’ feature which is used to discover the hidden relationships among each working decision in distributed manner. This method incorporates the concept of data mining and knowledge refinement into decision making process for ensuring ‘doing the right things’ within the workflow. An example of implementation is given, based on the case of slider manufacturer.

Response-based segmentation using Finite Mixture Partial Least Squares: theoretical foundations and an application to American Customer Satisfaction Index Data

When applying multivariate analysis techniques in information systems and social science disciplines, such as management information systems (MIS) and marketing, the assumption that the empirical data originate from a single homogeneous population is often unrealistic. When applying a causal modeling approach, such as partial least squares (PLS) path modeling, segmentation is a key issue in coping with the problem of heterogeneity in estimated cause-and-effect relationships. This chapter presents a new PLS path modeling approach which classifies units on the basis of the heterogeneity of the estimates in the inner model. If unobserved heterogeneity significantly affects the estimated path model relationships on the aggregate data level, the methodology will allow homogenous groups of observations to be created that exhibit distinctive path model estimates. The approach will, thus, provide differentiated analytical outcomes that permit more precise interpretations of each segment formed. An application on a large data set in an example of the American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) substantiates the methodology’s effectiveness in evaluating PLS path modeling results.

Using secondary knowledge to support decision tree classification of retrospective clinical data

Retrospective clinical data presents many challenges for data mining and machine learning. The transcription of patient records from paper charts and subsequent manipulation of data often results in high volumes of noise as well as a loss of other important information. In addition, such datasets often fail to represent expert medical knowledge and reasoning in any explicit manner. In this research we describe applying data mining methods to retrospective clinical data to build a prediction model for asthma exacerbation severity for pediatric patients in the emergency department. Difficulties in building such a model forced us to investigate alternative strategies for analyzing and processing retrospective data. This paper describes this process together with an approach to mining retrospective clinical data by incorporating formalized external expert knowledge (secondary knowledge sources) into the classification task. This knowledge is used to partition the data into a number of coherent sets, where each set is explicitly described in terms of the secondary knowledge source. Instances from each set are then classified in a manner appropriate for the characteristics of the particular set. We present our methodology and outline a set of experiential results that demonstrate some advantages and some limitations of our approach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Hierarchical classification of G-protein-coupled receptors with data-driven selection of attributes and classifiers

We address the important bioinformatics problem of predicting protein function from a protein's primary sequence. We consider the functional classification of G-Protein-Coupled Receptors (GPCRs), whose functions are specified in a class hierarchy. We tackle this task using a novel top-down hierarchical classification system where, for each node in the class hierarchy, the predictor attributes to be used in that node and the classifier to be applied to the selected attributes are chosen in a data-driven manner. Compared with a previous hierarchical classification system selecting classifiers only, our new system significantly reduced processing time without significantly sacrificing predictive accuracy.

Instantaneous Database Access

The biggest threat to any business is a lack of timely and accurate information. Without all the facts, businesses are pressured to make critical decisions and assess risks and opportunities based largely on guesswork, sometimes resulting in financial losses and missed opportunities. The meteoric rise of Databases (DB) appears to confirm the adage that “information is power”, but the stark reality is that information is useless if one has no way to find what one needs to know. It is more accurate perhaps to state that, “the ability to find information is power”. In this paper we show how Instantaneous Database Access System (IDAS) can make a crucial difference by pulling data together and allowing users to summarise information quickly from all areas of a business organisation.

Algorithm BIDIMS for Automated Systematization of Data Array. Case Study: Rediscovering Mendeleev’s Periodic Table of Chemical Elements

The method (algorithm BIDIMS) of multivariate objects display to bidimensional structure in which the sum of differences of objects properties and their nearest neighbors is minimal is being described. The basic regularities on the set of objects at this ordering become evident. Besides, such structures (tables) have high inductive opportunities: many latent properties of objects may be predicted on their coordinates in this table. Opportunities of a method are illustrated on an example of bidimentional ordering of chemical elements. The table received in result practically coincides with the periodic Mendeleev table.

Chain Split and Computations in Practical Rule Mining

A novel association rule mining algorithm is composed, using the unit cube chain decomposition structures introduced in [HAN, 1966; TON, 1976]. [HAN, 1966] established the chain split theory. [TON, 1976] invented an excellent chain computation framework which brings chain split into the practical domain. We integrate these technologies around the rule mining procedures. Effectiveness is related to the intention of low complexity of rules mined. Complexity of the procedure composed is complementary to the known Apriori algorithm which is defacto standard in rule mining area.

We know what you want to buy:a demographic-based system for product recommendation on microblogs

Product recommender systems are often deployed by e-commerce websites to improve user experience and increase sales. However, recommendation is limited by the product information hosted in those e-commerce sites and is only triggered when users are performing e-commerce activities. In this paper, we develop a novel product recommender system called METIS, a MErchanT Intelligence recommender System, which detects users' purchase intents from their microblogs in near real-time and makes product recommendation based on matching the users' demographic information extracted from their public profiles with product demographics learned from microblogs and online reviews. METIS distinguishes itself from traditional product recommender systems in the following aspects: 1) METIS was developed based on a microblogging service platform. As such, it is not limited by the information available in any specific e-commerce website. In addition, METIS is able to track users' purchase intents in near real-time and make recommendations accordingly. 2) In METIS, product recommendation is framed as a learning to rank problem. Users' characteristics extracted from their public profiles in microblogs and products' demographics learned from both online product reviews and microblogs are fed into learning to rank algorithms for product recommendation. We have evaluated our system in a large dataset crawled from Sina Weibo. The experimental results have verified the feasibility and effectiveness of our system. We have also made a demo version of our system publicly available and have implemented a live system which allows registered users to receive recommendations in real time. © 2014 ACM.

Knowledge discovery using multiple sources of biological data

The primary aim of this dissertation is to develop data mining tools for knowledge discovery in biomedical data when multiple (homogeneous or heterogeneous) sources of data are available. The central hypothesis is that, when information from multiple sources of data are used appropriately and effectively, knowledge discovery can be better achieved than what is possible from only a single source. ^ Recent advances in high-throughput technology have enabled biomedical researchers to generate large volumes of diverse types of data on a genome-wide scale. These data include DNA sequences, gene expression measurements, and much more; they provide the motivation for building analysis tools to elucidate the modular organization of the cell. The challenges include efficiently and accurately extracting information from the multiple data sources; representing the information effectively, developing analytical tools, and interpreting the results in the context of the domain. ^ The first part considers the application of feature-level integration to design classifiers that discriminate between soil types. The machine learning tools, SVM and KNN, were used to successfully distinguish between several soil samples. ^ The second part considers clustering using multiple heterogeneous data sources. The resulting Multi-Source Clustering (MSC) algorithm was shown to have a better performance than clustering methods that use only a single data source or a simple feature-level integration of heterogeneous data sources. ^ The third part proposes a new approach to effectively incorporate incomplete data into clustering analysis. Adapted from K-means algorithm, the Generalized Constrained Clustering (GCC) algorithm makes use of incomplete data in the form of constraints to perform exploratory analysis. Novel approaches for extracting constraints were proposed. For sufficiently large constraint sets, the GCC algorithm outperformed the MSC algorithm. ^ The last part considers the problem of providing a theme-specific environment for mining multi-source biomedical data. The database called PlasmoTFBM, focusing on gene regulation of Plasmodium falciparum, contains diverse information and has a simple interface to allow biologists to explore the data. It provided a framework for comparing different analytical tools for predicting regulatory elements and for designing useful data mining tools. ^ The conclusion is that the experiments reported in this dissertation strongly support the central hypothesis.^

Re-engineering Technology: Date Mining for Clubs

With increasing competition and more demanding members, clubs need a tool to help them belter attract and retain members and predict their behavior. Data mining is such a tool. This article presents an overview of how data warehousing, data marting, and data mining can provide the foundation on which clubs can build strategies to outsmart competitors, build Ioyalty identify new members, and lower costs.

Ensemble Stream Model for Data-Cleaning in Sensor Networks

Ensemble Stream Modeling and Data-cleaning are sensor information processing systems have different training and testing methods by which their goals are cross-validated. This research examines a mechanism, which seeks to extract novel patterns by generating ensembles from data. The main goal of label-less stream processing is to process the sensed events to eliminate the noises that are uncorrelated, and choose the most likely model without over fitting thus obtaining higher model confidence. Higher quality streams can be realized by combining many short streams into an ensemble which has the desired quality. The framework for the investigation is an existing data mining tool. First, to accommodate feature extraction such as a bush or natural forest-fire event we make an assumption of the burnt area (BA*), sensed ground truth as our target variable obtained from logs. Even though this is an obvious model choice the results are disappointing. The reasons for this are two: One, the histogram of fire activity is highly skewed. Two, the measured sensor parameters are highly correlated. Since using non descriptive features does not yield good results, we resort to temporal features. By doing so we carefully eliminate the averaging effects; the resulting histogram is more satisfactory and conceptual knowledge is learned from sensor streams. Second is the process of feature induction by cross-validating attributes with single or multi-target variables to minimize training error. We use F-measure score, which combines precision and accuracy to determine the false alarm rate of fire events. The multi-target data-cleaning trees use information purity of the target leaf-nodes to learn higher order features. A sensitive variance measure such as ƒ-test is performed during each node's split to select the best attribute. Ensemble stream model approach proved to improve when using complicated features with a simpler tree classifier. The ensemble framework for data-cleaning and the enhancements to quantify quality of fitness (30% spatial, 10% temporal, and 90% mobility reduction) of sensor led to the formation of streams for sensor-enabled applications. Which further motivates the novelty of stream quality labeling and its importance in solving vast amounts of real-time mobile streams generated today.

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Utilizando comitês de classificadores para predição de rendimento escolar

Educational Data Mining is an application domain in artificial intelligence area that has been extensively explored nowadays. Technological advances and in particular, the increasing use of virtual learning environments have allowed the generation of considerable amounts of data to be investigated. Among the activities to be treated in this context exists the prediction of school performance of the students, which can be accomplished through the use of machine learning techniques. Such techniques may be used for student’s classification in predefined labels. One of the strategies to apply these techniques consists in their combination to design multi-classifier systems, which efficiency can be proven by results achieved in other studies conducted in several areas, such as medicine, commerce and biometrics. The data used in the experiments were obtained from the interactions between students in one of the most used virtual learning environments called Moodle. In this context, this paper presents the results of several experiments that include the use of specific multi-classifier systems systems, called ensembles, aiming to reach better results in school performance prediction that is, searching for highest accuracy percentage in the student’s classification. Therefore, this paper presents a significant exploration of educational data and it shows analyzes of relevant results about these experiments.

Uma proposta de indicadores para o acompanhamento de alunos em projetos de desenvolvimento colaborativo de software com foco no desenvolvimento de habilidades transversais

Soft skills and teamwork practices were identi ed as the main de ciencies of recent graduates in computer courses. This issue led to a realization of a qualitative research aimed at investigating the challenges faced by professors of those courses in conducting, monitoring and assessing collaborative software development projects. Di erent challenges were reported by teachers, including di culties in the assessment of students both in the collective and individual levels. In this context, a quantitative research was conducted with the aim to map soft skill of students to a set of indicators that can be extracted from software repositories using data mining techniques. These indicators are aimed at measuring soft skills, such as teamwork, leadership, problem solving and the pace of communication. Then, a peer assessment approach was applied in a collaborative software development course of the software engineering major at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). This research presents a correlation study between the students' soft skills scores and indicators based on mining software repositories. This study contributes: (i) in the presentation of professors' perception of the di culties and opportunities for improving management and monitoring practices in collaborative software development projects; (ii) in investigating relationships between soft skills and activities performed by students using software repositories; (iii) in encouraging the development of soft skills and the use of software repositories among software engineering students; (iv) in contributing to the state of the art of three important areas of software engineering, namely software engineering education, educational data mining and human aspects of software engineering.