Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

A restatement of the welafare costs of inflation. The wast of scarce resources in the manufacturing , banking and household sectors

Lucas (2000) estimates that the US welfare costs of inflation are around 1% of GDP. This measurement is consistent with a speci…c distorting channel in terms of the Bailey triangle under the demand for monetary base schedule (outside money): the displacement of resources from the production of consumption goods to the household transaction time à la Baumol. Here, we consider also several new types of distortions in the manufacturing and banking industries. Our new evidences show that both banks and firms demand special occupational employments to avoid the inflation tax. We de…ne the concept of ”the foat labor”: The occupational employments that are aflected by the in‡ation rates. More administrative workers are hired relatively to the bluecollar workers for producing consumption goods. This new phenomenon makes the manufacturing industry more roundabout. To take into account this new stylized fact and others, we redo at same time both ”The model 5: A Banking Sector -2” formulated by Lucas (1993) and ”The Competitive Banking System” proposed by Yoshino (1993). This modelling allows us to characterize better the new types of misallocations. We …nd that the maximum value of the resources wasted by the US economy happened in the years 1980-81, after the 2nd oil shock. In these years, we estimate the excess resources that are allocated for every speci…c distorting channel: i) The US commercial banks spent additional resources of around 2% of GDP; ii) For the purpose of the firm foating time were used between 2.4% and 4.1% of GDP); and iii) For the household transaction time were allocated between 3.1% and 4.5 % of GDP. The Bailey triangle under the demand for the monetary base schedule represented around 1% of GDP, which is consistent with Lucas (2000). We estimate that the US total welfare costs of in‡ation were around 10% of GDP in terms of the consumption goods foregone. The big di¤erence between our results and Lucas (2000) are mainly due to the Harberger triangle in the market for loans (inside money) which makes part of the household transaction time, of the …rm ‡oat labor and of the distortion in the banking industry. This triangle arises due to the widening interest rates spread in the presence of a distorting inflation tax and under a fractionally reserve system. The Harberger triangle can represent 80% of the total welfare costs of inflation while the remaining percentage is split almost equally between the Bailey triangle and the resources used for the bank services. Finally, we formulate several theorems in terms of the optimal nonneutral monetary policy so as to compare with the classical monetary theory.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Large scale laboratory cultures of Ankistrodesmus gracilis (Reisch) Korsikov (Chlorophyta) and Diaphanosoma biergei Korinek, 1981 (Cladocera)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Infection of commercial laying hens with Salmonella Gallinarum: clinical, anatomopathological and haematological studies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comportamento do meloeiro em cultivo sem solo com a utilização de biofertilizante

O reaproveitamento de nutrientes após a fermentação de resíduos orgânicos em biodigestor, associado à técnica do cultivo hidropônico, é uma alternativa para reduzir custos na agricultura, além de contribuir no menor consumo das reservas naturais de nutrientes do planeta. Com esse enfoque, estudou-se o comportamento da cultura do meloeiro usando a técnica hidropônica e efluente de biodigestor proveniente da fermentação anaeróbica de estrume bovino. Cultivou-se o meloeiro (Cucumis melo L. 'Bônus 2') em condições de ambiente protegido. O delineamento estatístico utilizado foi de blocos casualizados, com 4 tratamentos (cultivo hidropônico em sistema fechado tipo NFT com uso de solução nutritiva organo-mineral; cultivo hidropônico em sistema fechado tipo NFT com uso de solução nutritiva 100% mineral; cultivo em sistema aberto, com substrato e solução nutritiva organo-mineral e cultivo em sistema aberto, com substrato e solução nutritiva 100% mineral) e 6 repetições. Foram realizadas avaliações quanto a altura de plantas aos 50; 56; 63; 70 e 77 dias após a semeadura; tempo de colheita; peso de frutos e produtividade. As melhores respostas foram observadas no cultivo hidropônico em sistema fechado tipo NFT com uso de solução nutritiva 100% mineral. A substituição parcial de adubos minerais por biofertilizante, se mostrou viável para os tratamentos em sistema aberto (com substrato), constituindo-se em masi uma alternativa aos horticultores.

Avaliação de semeadora-adubadora de precisão trabalhando em três sistemas de preparo do solo

Avaliou-se uma semeadora-adubadora de precisão com quatro linhas, na cultura do milho (Zea mays L.), trabalhando em Latossolo Vermelho-Escuro eutrófico, A moderado, textura argilosa. As parcelas experimentais foram dispostas em blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições, em esquema fatorial 3 x 3, totalizando 36 observações. Os fatores foram dados pelos sistemas de preparo do solo (convencional, plantio direto e reduzido) e pelas marchas do trator (3ª reduzida alta, 4ª reduzida baixa e 4ª reduzida alta). Foram analisadas as variáveis velocidade de deslocamento, queda de velocidade, força de tração e potência na barra, consumo de combustível, rotação do motor e patinagem média dos rodados do trator. Os resultados mostraram que a operação de semeadura em solo sob preparo reduzido apresentou maior consumo de combustível, menor velocidade de deslocamento, menor capacidade de campo efetiva e maior patinagem.

In vitro Survival of Follicles Collected from Domestic Cats' Ovaries at Different Stages of Oestrous Cycle and Cultured with IGF-1

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Prevention of Salmonella infection by contact using intestinal flora of adult birds and/or a mixture of organic acids

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The status of soil phosphate fractions and the ability of fungi to dissolve hardly soluble phosphates

Brazilian soils predominantly consist of iron and aluminum oxides and have a low phosphorus content. The present study was carried out in order to assess the status of phosphate fractions in pasture, forest and agricultural soils and the ability of soil fungi to solubilize iron and aluminum phosphates. The abundance of P fractions in the soils studied occurred in the following order: Fe-P > reductant-soluble Fe-P > occluded Fe-P > occluded Al-P > Al-P > Ca-P. of the 481 fungi isolated, 33 showed the ability to solubilize the inorganic phosphates in culture. of these, 14 were considered to be high or very high solubilizers based on a solubilization capacity > 1000 mu g PO43- ml(-1). Isolate F-111 was the only one that dissolved all the insoluble phosphates used. Nine isolates solubilized both Al-P and Ca-P, and four other isolates only solubilized Ca-P. The highest number of isolates with high solubilization capacity were detected in pasture soil, followed by tropical rain forest and forest patch soils. Pasture soil presented both the largest contents of insoluble phosphates and the largest number of fungal isolates with phosphate-solubilizing ability. The range and size of P fractions influenced the number of fungi and their ability to solubilize hardly soluble phosphates. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of globular embryos from the hybridization between 'Pêra Rio' sweet orange and 'Poncã' mandarin

Objetivou-se estudar a influência de diversas concentrações do meio MT, sacarose, vitaminas, carvão ativado e ácido giberélico no cultivo de embriões imaturos oriundos do cruzamento entre laranjeira 'Pêra Rio' x tangerineira 'PONCÃ' . Os embriões foram excisados sob condições assépticas e inoculados em 15 mL do meio de cultura MT, de acordo com cada experimento a seguir: 1) concentrações do meio de cultura MT (0%, 50%, 100%, 150% e 200%) combinados com 0, 30, 60 e 90 g.L-1 de sacarose; 2) concentrações de vitaminas do meio MT (0%, 50%, 100%, 150% e 200%) combinados com 0, 30, 60 e 90 g.L-1 de sacarose e; 3) concentrações de carvão ativado (0; 0.5; 1; 1.5 e 2 g.L-1) combinados com GA3 (0; 0.01; 0.1; 1 e 10 mg.L-1). Após a inoculação, os embriões foram mantidos por 90 dias em sala de crescimento à temperatura de 27±1ºC, fotoperíodo de 16 horas e irradiância de 32 µmol.m-2.s-1. A utilização de 50% e 100% do meio MT associado a 60 e 90 g.L-1 de sacarose, respectivamente, acrescido de 0.01 mg.L-1 de GA3, proporcionou melhor desenvolvimento de embriões globulares. Não houve necessidade da adição de carvão ativado e vitaminas no meio MT para o cultivo de embriões globulares.

Análise Energética da cultura do crambe (Crambe abyssinica hochst) produzida em plantio direto

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Energy balance for biodiesel production by the castor bean crop (Ricinus communis L.)

The castor bean crop (Ricinus communis L.) has acquired prestige due to industries interest in the oil quality and recently for new sources of energy demand. The experiment that served as basis for the data used in this study was conducted at the Lageado Experimental Farm, in Botucatu - SP, 2008. This study aimed to avaluate the crop viability through energy balance and energy efficiency since the implantation until biodiesel production using parameters of consumption in operational management for installation and maintenance of culture harvest and oil production. The soil management operations, sow and harvest consumed the total of 266.20 MJ ha(-1), gathering with the fertilizers, pesticides, fuels, lubricants, labor, seed and industrial processing totaled 56,808 MJ ha(-1) of energy inputs. The energy production was 72,814.00 MJ ha(-1). The industry still lacks studies thal would contribution data collection and more specific energy coefficients. The castor beans cultivation was considered efficient allowing again of 15983.44 MJ ha(-1) equivalent to about 415 liters of diesel oil.