Climatic evolution of eastern South America during the last deglaciation: a paleoceanographic approach

Para dar suporte ao atual debate sobre as consequências climáticas da liberação antropogênica de CO2 na atmosfera, o refinamento do conhecimento sobre mudanças climáticas e oceanográficas no passado é necessário. A Circulação de Revolvimento Meridional do Atlântico (CRMA) tem papel fundamental na oceanografia e clima das áreas sob influência do Oceano Atlântico, controlando diretamente a estratificação e distribuição de massas d\'água, a quantidade de calor transportada pelo oceano e os ciclo e armazenamento de compostos químicos, como o CO2 em mar profundo. A formação e circulação da Água Intermediária Antártica (AIA), envolvida no transporte de calor e sal para o giro subtropical do Hemisfério Sul e nas teleconexões climáticas entre altas e baixas latitudes, é componente importante do ramo superior da CRMA. A reconstrução de propriedades de massas de água intermediárias é, portanto, importante para a compreensão dos sistemas de retroalimentação entre oceano-clima. No entanto, informações quanto a evolução da AIA continuam limitadas. Oscilações da CRMA e consequentes mudanças na distribuição de calor tem implicações importantes para o clima Sul Americano, influenciando a disponibilidade de umidade para o Sistema de Monções Sul Americano (SMSA), via temperatura da superfície marinha e posicionamento da Zona de Convergência Intertropical. Neste trabalho nós reconstruímos a assinatura isotópica da AIA durante os estágios isotópicos marinhos 2 e 3 (41-12 cal ka AP) usando isótopos de carbono e oxigênio de foraminíferos bentônicos (gêneros Cibicidoides e Uvigerina) de um testemunho de sedimentos marinhos datados por radiocarbono (1100 m de profundidade e a 20°S na costa do Brasil). Concluímos que propriedades físicas e químicas da AIA mudaram durante os estadiais Heinrich 3 e 4, provavelmente como consequência de enfraquecimento da CRMA durante estes períodos. Também reconstruímos as condições continentais do leste brasileiro entre o último máximo glacial e a deglaciação (23-12 cal ka AP) baseadas em razões Ti/Ca de nosso testemunho de sedimentos marinhos como indicadoras de aporte terrígeno do Rio Doce. A maior parte da chuva que cai na Bacia do Rio Doce está relacionada a atividade do SMAS. Nosso registro de Ti/Ca em conjunto com \'\'delta\' POT.18\'O de espeleotemas da Caverna Lapa Sem Fim, também no leste do Brasil, sugere diminuição marcante da chuva durante o interestadial Bølling-Allerød, provavelmente relacionada a enfraquecimento do SMAS. Ademais comparamos as razões de Ti/Ca com dados de saída da rodada SYNTRACE do modelo climático CCSM3 com forçantes transientes para a última deglaciação. Os registros geoquímicos e a saída do modelo mostram resultados consistentes entre si e sugerem que o leste da América do Sul passou pelo seu período mais seco de toda a última deglaciação durante o interestadial Bølling-Allerød, provavelmente relacionado ao enfraquecimento do SMAS.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.

Regional vegetation changes in the tropical Andes expressed as arboreal pollen (AP%), standardised ordination scores (DCA z-scores), and aquatic vegetation ratios (D/SS); files used for plots

We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 50 ka, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore ordination results as two approaches for extracting environmental variability from pollen records. We also use the records of aquatic and shoreline vegetation as markers for lake level fluctuations, and precipitation change. Our analysis focuses on the signature of millennial-scale variability in the tropical Andes, in particular, Heinrich stadials and Greenland interstadials. We identify rapid responses of the tropical vegetation to this climate variability, and relate differences between sites to moisture sources and site sensitivity.

Changes in the vegetation and trade winds in equatorial Northwest Africa 140,000-70,000 yr B.P., as deduced from two marine pollen records

The deep-sea cores M 16415-2 and M 16416-2 at about 9°N off Sierra Leone were analysed palynologically for the time interval 140,000-70,000 yr B.P. Results were presented in absolute (pollen concentration and pollen influx) and relative diagrams (pollen percentage). In a previous study it was evidenced that in northwest Africa pollen is mainly transported to the Atlantic by wind, so that the efficiency of aeolian pollen transport (pollen flux) could be used to evaluate changes in the intensity of the northeast trade winds. The glacial episodes (represented by the oxygen isotope stages 6 and 4) are characterized by strong northeast trade winds, whereas the last interglacial (stage 5) is characterized by weak trade winds. The pollen influx diagram shows that the intensity of the trade winds increased slightly during the relatively cool intervals of stage 5 (viz. 5.4 and 5.2). Tropical forest had maximally expanded around 124,000 yr B.P. (stage 5.5), around 98,000 yr B.P. (transition of stage 5.3 to 5.2), and around 70,000 yr B.P. (first part of stage 4): an increasing delay of the response of tropical forest to global intervals with maximum temperature is apparent during the last interglacial. As tropical forests need continuous humidity, the record of tropical forest monitors changes in climatic humidity south of the Sahara. During the last interglacial, the southern boundary of the Sahara shifted only little: expansions and contractions of the tropical forest area are correlated with contra-oscillations of the grass-dominated savanna zone. Great latitudinal shifts of the desert savanna boundary, on the contrary, occurred during the penultimate glacial interglacial transition (around 128,000 yr B.P.) to the north, and during the last interglacial-glacial transition (around 65,000 yr B.P.) to the south.

Geographic parthenogenesis in the Australian arid zone: II. Climatic analysis of orthopteroid insects of the genera Warramaba and Sipyloidea

The Australian and zone harbours a surprising number of parthenogenetic organisms. including the well known case of the grasshopper Warramaba virgo. Less well known is the case of the stick insects of the Sipyloidea complex, which. despite its presence in the literature for over 15 years. has gone entirely unnoticed by workers in the field. We draw attention to the remarkable similarities between the evolution of parthenogenesis in Warramaba and Sipyloidea and analyse the geographic distributions of parthenogenetic and sexual forms with respect to six Climatic variables. We provide evidence that a combination of Climatic and vegetative barriers are responsible for the current distribution patterns in these taxa. Comparisons are also made with patterns of geographic parthenogenesis in lizards of the Heteronotia binoei complex. In general. there has been a strong tendency for parthenogenesis to originate via hybridization in the western part of the and zone with subsequent eastward spread throughout mulga woodlands and mallee shrublands where rainfall is both low and aseasonal. We propose that the hybridization events leading to parthenogenesis in these diverse taxa were driven by a common biogeographic process - that is, by range shifts associated with changes in aridity during the late Pleistocene.

Climatic variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP)

The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue, with conflicting evidence for the degree of 'teleconnection' between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific, a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20-10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand, through Australia to Indonesia, supported by 125 calibrated C-14 ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP, most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A, respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic, however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations, and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geochemical changes recorded in Lynch's Crater, Northeastern Australia, over the past 50 ka

There are many geochemical reconstructions of environmental change in the mid and high latitudes but relatively few in the tropical latitudes, despite their considerable potential for reconstructing environmental processes that cannot be identified using more traditional proxies. Here we present one reconstruction of environmental change for the tropics. This reconstruction covers the past 50 ka using a suite of geochemical data from the high-resolution sequence of Lynch's Crater in northeast Queensland, Australia, a region highly sensitive to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The 23 major oxides and trace elements measured Could be summarised by extracting three axes using principal components analysis (accounting for 72% of the variability). The data indicate that the greatest variability in the geochemical data accounted for erosional activity within the catchment that was associated with past changes in the frequency of ENSO activity (though this was less sensitive during wetter periods, probably as a result of buffering by high vegetation cover). The remaining variability was largely explained by elements that form complexes with organic compounds (e.g., humic acids) and those that are important nutrients for specific vegetation types (and therefore a measure of vegetation distribution). For more detailed reconstructions, further work is required to disentangle the complex controls of clements within sedimentary sequences. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

Mortality and climatic/environmental correlates of Widdringtonia cedargensis trees in the Cederberg, South Africa

Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.

Progressive changes in the Western English Channel foster a reorganization in the plankton food web

Growing evidence has shown a profound modification of plankton communities of the North East Atlantic and adjacent seas over the past decades. This drastic change has been attributed to a modification of the environmental conditions that regulate the dynamics and the spatial distribution of ectothermic species in the ocean. Recently, several studies have highlighted modifications of the regional climate station L4 (50° 15.00′N, 4° 13.02′W) in the Western English Channel. We here focus on the modification of the plankton community by studying the long-term, annual and seasonal changes of five zooplankton groups and eight copepod genera. We detail the main composition and the phenology of the plankton communities during four climatic periods identified at the L4 station: 1988–1994, 1995–2000, 2001–2007 and 2008–2012. Our results show that long-term environmental changes underlined by Molinero et al. (2013) drive a profound restructuration of the plankton community modifying the phenology and the dominance of key planktonic groups including fish larvae. Consequently, the slow but deep modifications detected in the plankton community highlight a climate driven ecosystem shift in the Western English Channel.

Progressive changes in the Western English Channel foster a reorganization in the plankton food web

Growing evidence has shown a profound modification of plankton communities of the North East Atlantic and adjacent seas over the past decades. This drastic change has been attributed to a modification of the environmental conditions that regulate the dynamics and the spatial distribution of ectothermic species in the ocean. Recently, several studies have highlighted modifications of the regional climate station L4 (50° 15.00′N, 4° 13.02′W) in the Western English Channel. We here focus on the modification of the plankton community by studying the long-term, annual and seasonal changes of five zooplankton groups and eight copepod genera. We detail the main composition and the phenology of the plankton communities during four climatic periods identified at the L4 station: 1988–1994, 1995–2000, 2001–2007 and 2008–2012. Our results show that long-term environmental changes underlined by Molinero et al. (2013) drive a profound restructuration of the plankton community modifying the phenology and the dominance of key planktonic groups including fish larvae. Consequently, the slow but deep modifications detected in the plankton community highlight a climate driven ecosystem shift in the Western English Channel.

Long-term changes of the phytoplankton community and biomass in the subtropical shallow Patos Lagoon Estuary, Brazil

Seasonal and interannual changes (1993e2012) of water temperature and transparency, river discharge, salinity, water quality properties, chlorophyll a (chl-a) and the carbon biomass of the main taxonomical phytoplankton groups were evaluated at a shallow station (~2 m) in the subtropical Patos Lagoon Estuary (PLE), Brazil. Large variations in salinity (0e35), due to a complex balance between Patos Lagoon outflow and oceanic inflows, affected significantly other water quality variables and phytoplankton dynamics, masking seasonal and interannual variability. Therefore, salinity effect was filtered out by means of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). River discharge and salinity had a significant negative relation, with river discharge being highest and salinity lowest during July to October. Diatoms comprised the dominant phytoplankton group, contributing substantially to the seasonal cycle of chl-a showing higher values in austral spring/summer (September to April) and lowest in autumn/winter (May to August). PLE is a nutrient-rich estuary and the phytoplankton seasonal cycle was largely driven by light availability, with few exceptions in winter. Most variables exhibited large interannual variability. When varying salinity effect was accounted for, chl-a concentration and diatom biomass showed less irregularity over time, and significant increasing trends emerged for dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria. Long-term changes in phytoplankton and water quality were strongly related to variations in salinity, largely driven by freshwater discharge influenced by climatic variability, most pronounced for ENSO events. However, the significant increasing trend of the N:P ratio indicates that important environmental changes related to anthropogenic effects are undergoing, in addition to the hydrology in the PLE.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

Aspects of the fishery and biology of the African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) amidst environmental changes in Lake Wamala (Uganda)

Environmental changes are some of the factors that affect fisheries and biological characteristics of fishes. The African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) has biological characteristics that enable it to persist under various stressful environmental conditions. However, few studies have examined how the African catfish responds to conditions created by a changing climate. The study examined some of the fishery and biological characteristics of African catfish in Lake Wamala (Uganda) to provide an understanding of their response to changing climatic conditions using data for the period 1950 - 2013. Temperature around the lake increased by 0.02ºC/year since 1980, commensurate with the regional trend, while rainfall was above average since 1996, except in 2004 and 2008. Lake depth was strongly positively correlated with rainfall (r =0.83, n= 6, p<0.05) up to 2000, after which, lake depth decreased amidst increase in rainfall. The contribution of African catfish increased from 20% to 85% and 17% to 78% respectively to commercial and experimental catches respectively between 1975 and 2013 despite the decrease in lake depth. The modal total length, condition factor, food, and fecundity did not change. Only size at first maturity decreased from 37.5 to 30 cm TL in females and 39.5 to 34.2 cm TL in males between 1999/2000 and 2012/2013. The biological characteristics of the African catfish were comparable with those of the same species in other lakes and remained relatively stable. The results suggested that the African catfish has the capacity to persist and/or adjust appropriately under conditions created by climate variability and change, and if properly managed, can sustain the fisheries of Lake Wamala.