Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

1.Commercial fishing is an important socio-economic activity in coastal regions of the UK and Ireland. Ocean–atmospheric changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions are likely to affect future fish and shellfish production, and lead to increasing challenges in ensuring long-term sustainable fisheries management. 2.The paper reviews existing knowledge and understanding of the exposure of marine ecosystems to ocean-atmospheric changes, the consequences of these changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, and the adaptability of the UK and Irish fisheries sector. 3.Ocean warming is resulting in shifts in the distribution of exploited species and is affecting the productivity of fish stocks and underlying marine ecosystems. In addition, some studies suggest that ocean acidification may have large potential impacts on fisheries resources, in particular shell-forming invertebrates. 4.These changes may lead to loss of productivity, but also the opening of new fishing opportunities, depending on the interactions between climate impacts, fishing grounds and fleet types. They will also affect fishing regulations, the price of fish products and operating costs, which in turn will affect the economic performance of the UK and Irish fleets. 5.Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sectors to climate change. However, these gaps should not delay climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions, particularly those measures that clearly have other ‘co-benefits’.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Diet of auklet chicks in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska: similarity among islands, interspecies overlap, and relationships to ocean climate

Seabirds are effective samplers of the marine environment, and can be used to measure resource partitioning among species and sites via food loads destined for chicks. We examined the composition, overlap, and relationships to changing climate and oceanography of 3,216 food loads from Least, Crested, and Whiskered Auklets (Aethia pusilla, A. cristatella, A. pygmaea) breeding in Alaska during 1994–2006. Meals comprised calanoid copepods (Neocalanus spp.) and euphausiids (Thysanoessa spp.) that reflect secondary marine productivity, with no difference among Buldir, Kiska, and Kasatochi islands across 585 km of the Aleutian Islands. Meals were very similar among species (mean Least–Crested Auklet overlap C = 0.68; Least–Whiskered Auklet overlap C = 0.96) and among sites, indicating limited partitioning of prey resources for auklets feeding chicks. The biomass of copepods and euphausiids in Least and Crested Auklet food loads was related negatively to the summer (June–July–August) North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, while in Whiskered Auklet food loads, this was negatively related to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific Decadal Oscillation, both of which track basin-wide sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found a significant quadratic relationship between the biomass of calanoid copepods in Least Auklet food loads at all three study sites and summer (June–July) SST, with maximal copepod biomass between 3–6°C (r 2 = 0.71). Outside this temperature range, zooplankton becomes less available to auklets through delayed development. Overall, our results suggest that auklets are able to buffer climate-mediated bottom-up forcing of demographic parameters like productivity, as the composition of chick meals has remained constant over the course of our study.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a21. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 lmol m22 day21. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies and communicating new insights at each phase.

Valuing the health benefits of physical activities in the marine environment and their importance for marine spatial planning

The marine environment provides a number of services which contribute to human well-being including the provision of food, regulation of climate and the provision of settings for cultural gains. To ensure these services continue to be provided, effective management is required and is being strategically implemented through the development of marine spatial plans. These plans require an understanding of the costs and benefits associated with alternative marine uses and how they contribute to human well-being. One benefit which is often difficult to quantify is the health benefit of engaging with the marine environment. To address this, the research develops an approach which can estimate the contribution aquatic physical activities makes to quality adjusted life years (QALYs) in monetary and non-monetary terms. Using data from the Health Survey for England, the research estimates that physical activities undertaken in aquatic environments at a national level provides a total gain of 24,853 QALYs. A conservative estimate of the monetary value of a QALY gain of this magnitude is £176 million. This approach provides estimates of health benefits which can be used in more comprehensive impact assessments, such as cost-benefit analysis, to compare alternative marine spatial plans. The paper concludes by discussing future steps.

High-resolution view of the spring bloom initiation and net community production in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean using glider data

In the Southern Ocean, there is increasing evidence that seasonal to subseasonal temporal scales, and meso- to submesoscales play an important role in understanding the sensitivity of ocean primary productivity to climate change. This drives the need for a high-resolution approach to re- solving biogeochemical processes. In this study, 5.5 months of continuous, high-resolution (3 h, 2 km horizontal resolution) glider data from spring to summer in the Atlantic Subantarctic Zone is used to investigate: (i) the mechanisms that drive bloom initiation and high growth rates in the region and (ii) the seasonal evolution of water column production and respiration. Bloom initiation dates were analysed in the context of upper ocean boundary layer physics highlighting sensitivities of different bloom detection methods to different environmental processes. Model results show that in early spring (September to mid-November) increased rates of net community production (NCP) are strongly affected by meso- to submesoscale features. In late spring/early summer (late-November to mid-December) seasonal shoaling of the mixed layer drives a more spatially homogenous bloom with maximum rates of NCP and chlorophyll biomass. A comparison of biomass accumulation rates with a study in the North Atlantic highlights the sensitivity of phytoplankton growth to fine-scale dynamics and emphasizes the need to sample the ocean at high resolution to accurately resolve phytoplankton phenology and improve our ability to estimate the sensitivity of the biological carbon pump to climate change.

Climate change and marine benthos: a review of existing research and future directions in the North Atlantic

There is growing evidence that climate change could affect marine benthic systems. This review provides information of climate change‐related impacts on the marine benthos in the North Atlantic. We cover a number of related research aspects, mainly in connection to two key issues. First, is the relationship between different physical aspects of climate change and the marine benthos. This section covers: (a) the responses to changes in seawater temperature (biogeographic shifts and phenology); (b) altered Hydrodynamics; (c) ocean acidification (OA); and (d) sea‐level rise‐coastal squeeze. The second major issue addressed is the possible integrated impact of climate change on the benthos. This work is based on relationships between proxies for climate variability, notably the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and the long‐term marine benthos. The final section of our review provides a series of conclusions and future directions to support climate change research on marine benthic systems. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:203–223. doi: 10.1002/wcc.330

Sperm motility and fertilisation success in an acidified hypoxic environment

The distribution and function of many marine species is largely determined by the effect of abiotic drivers on their reproduction and early development, including those drivers associated with elevated CO2 and global climate change. A number of studies have therefore investigated the effects of elevated pCO2 on a range of reproductive parameters, including sperm motility and fertilisation success. To date, most of these studies have not examined the possible synergistic effects of other abiotic drivers, such as the increased frequency of hypoxic events that are also associated with climate change. The present study is therefore novel in assessing the impact that an hypoxic event could have on reproduction in a future high CO2 ocean. Specifically, this study assesses sperm motility and fertilisation success in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus exposed to elevated pCO2 for 6 months. Gametes extracted from these pre-acclimated individuals were subjected to hypoxic conditions simulating an hypoxic event in a future high CO2 ocean. Sperm swimming speed increased under elevated pCO2 and decreased under hypoxic conditions resulting in the elevated pCO2 and hypoxic treatment being approximately equivalent to the control. There was also a combined negative effect of increased pCO2 and hypoxia on the percentage of motile sperm. There was a significant negative effect of elevated pCO2 on fertilisation success, and when combined with a simulated hypoxic event there was an even greater effect. This could affect cohort recruitment and in turn reduce the density of this ecologically and economically important ecosystem engineer therefore potentially effecting biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Valuing the health benefits of physical activities in the marine environment and their importance for marine spatial planning

The marine environment provides a number of services which contribute to human well-being including the provision of food, regulation of climate and the provision of settings for cultural gains. To ensure these services continue to be provided, effective management is required and is being strategically implemented through the development of marine spatial plans. These plans require an understanding of the costs and benefits associated with alternative marine uses and how they contribute to human well-being. One benefit which is often difficult to quantify is the health benefit of engaging with the marine environment. To address this, the research develops an approach which can estimate the contribution aquatic physical activities makes to quality adjusted life years (QALYs) in monetary and non-monetary terms. Using data from the Health Survey for England, the research estimates that physical activities undertaken in aquatic environments at a national level provides a total gain of 24,853 QALYs. A conservative estimate of the monetary value of a QALY gain of this magnitude is £176 million. This approach provides estimates of health benefits which can be used in more comprehensive impact assessments, such as cost-benefit analysis, to compare alternative marine spatial plans. The paper concludes by discussing future steps.

A review of climate change and the implementation of marine biodiversity legislation in the United Kingdom

1. Marine legislation, the key means by which the conservation of marine biodiversity is achieved, has been developing since the 1960s. In recent decades, an increasing focus on ‘holistic’ policy development is evident, compared with earlier ‘piecemeal’ sectoral approaches. Important marine legislative tools being used in the United Kingdom, and internationally, include the designation of marine protected areas and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its aim of meeting ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GES) for European seas by 2020. 2. There is growing evidence of climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, which may compromise the effectiveness of any legislation intended to promote sustainable marine resource management. 3. A review of key marine biodiversity legislation relevant to the UK shows climate change was not considered in the drafting of much early legislation. Despite the huge increase in knowledge of climate change impacts in recent decades, legislation is still limited in how it takes these impacts into account. There is scope, however, to account for climate change in implementing much of the legislation through (a) existing references to environmental variability; (b) review cycles; and (c) secondary legislation and complementary policy development. 4. For legislation relating to marine protected areas (e.g. the EC Habitats and Birds Directives), climate change has generally not been considered in the site-designation process, or for ongoing management, with the exception of the Marine (Scotland) Act. Given that changing environmental conditions (e.g. rising temperatures and ocean acidification) directly affect the habitats and species that sites are designated for, how this legislation is used to protect marine biodiversity in a changing climate requires further consideration. 5. Accounting for climate change impacts on marine biodiversity in the development and implementation of legislation is vital to enable timely, adaptive management responses. Marine modelling can play an important role in informing management decisions.

Bridging the gap between energy and the environment

Meeting the world’s energy demand is a major challenge for society over the coming century. To identify the most sustainable energy pathways to meet this demand, analysis of energy systems on which policy is based must move beyond the current primary focus on carbon to include a broad range of ecosystem services on which human well-being depends. Incorporation of a broad set of ecosystem services into the design of energy policy will differentiates between energy technology options to identify policy options that reconcile national and international obligations to address climate change and the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this paper we consider our current understanding of the implications of energy systems for ecosystem services and identify key elements of an assessment. Analysis must consider the full life cycle of energy systems, the territorial and international footprint, use a consistent ecosystem service framework that incorporates the value of both market and non-market goods, and consider the spatial and temporal dynamics of both the energy and environmental system. While significant methodological challenges exist, the approach we detail can provide the holistic view of energy and ecosystem services interactions required to inform the future of global energy policy.

Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations

The atmosphere and ocean are two components of the Earth system that are essential for life, yet humankind is altering both. Contemporary climate change is now a well-identified problem: anthropogenic causes, disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies all around the world. But part of the problem remains largely unknown outside the scientific community: significant changes are also occurring in the ocean, threatening life and its sustainability on Earth. This Policy Brief explains the significance of these changes in the ocean. It is based on a scientific paper recently published in Science (Gattuso et al., 2015), which synthesizes recent and future changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide to humans. Two contrasting CO2 emission scenarios are considered: the high emissions scenario (also known as “business-as-usual” and as the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord1 of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in 2100.

Vegetation and climate c. 12 300-9000 cal. yr BP at Andoya, NW Norway

Owing to proximity of the North Atlantic Stream and the shelf, the And circle divide ya biota are assumed to have responded rapidly to climatic changes taking place after the Weichselian glaciation. Palynological, macrofossil, loss-on-ignition, tephra and C-14 data from three sites at the northern part of the island of And circle divide ya were studied. The period 12 300-11 950 cal. yr BP was characterized by polar desert vegetation, and 11 950-11 050 cal. yr BP by a moisture-demanding predominantly low-arctic Oxyria vegetation. During the period 11 050-10 650 cal. yr BP, there was a climatic amelioration towards a sub-arctic climate and heaths dominated by Empetrum. After 10 650 cal. yr BP the Oxyria vegetation disappeared. As early as about 10 800 cal. yr BP the bryozoan Cristatella mucedo indicated a climate sufficient for Betula woodland. However, tree birch did not establish until 10 420-10 250 cal. yr BP, indicating a time-lag for the formation of Betula ecotypes adapted to the oceanic climate of And circle divide ya. From about 10 150 to 9400 cal. yr BP the summers were dry and warm. There was a change towards moister, though comparatively warm, climatic conditions about 9400 cal. yr BP. The present data are compared with evidence from marine sediments and the deglaciation history in the region. It is suggested that during most of the period 11 500-10 250 cal. yr BP a similar situation as in present southern Greenland existed, with birch woodland in the inner fjords near the ice sheet and low-arctic heath vegetation along the outer coast.