A modified DEA model to estimate the importance of objectives with an application to agricultural economics

This paper demonstrates a connection between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a non-interactive elicitation method to estimate the weights of objectives for decision-makers in a multiple attribute approach. This connection gives rise to a modified DEA model that allows us to estimate not only efficiency measures but also preference weights by radially projecting each unit onto a linear combination of the elements of the payoff matrix (which is obtained by standard multicriteria methods). For users of multiple attribute decision analysis the basic contribution of this paper is a new interpretation in terms of efficiency of the non-interactive methodology employed to estimate weights in a multicriteria approach. We also propose a modified procedure to calculate an efficient payoff matrix and a procedure to estimate weights through a radial projection rather than a distance minimization. For DEA users, we provide a modified DEA procedure to calculate preference weights and efficiency measures that does not depend on any observations in the dataset. This methodology has been applied to an agricultural case study in Spain.

Bayesian analysis of a mastitis control plan to investigate the influence of veterinary prior beliefs on clinical interpretation

The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons’ initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe sceptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of <£5 per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of >£20 per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial sceptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians’ prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.

An expert model approach to assess the potential of non-wood forest products for forest owners

Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Using niche modelling of indicator species to predict the distribution of xerophitic shrub dune communities in South-Western Portugal

Inland sand dune systems are amongst the most threatened habitat types of Europe. Affected by severe conditions, these habitats present distinct community compositions, which makes them excellent for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We focus on understanding the distribution and cooccurrence of the species from dune plant assemblages as a key step for the adequate protection of these habitats. Using data from an extensive survey we identified the shrub species that could be considered indicators of the different xerophytic scrub dune communities in South West Portugal. Then, we modelled the responses of these species to the environmental conditions using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. We present some preliminary results elucidating whether using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict the distribution of the different types of communities inhabiting these endangered habitats.

OC-OT-LIBS: A novel approach to the chemical characterization of single particles

Spectral identification of individual micro- and nano-sized particles by the sequential intervention of optical catapulting, optical trapping and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy is presented [1]. The three techniques are used for different purposes. Optical catapulting (OC) serves to put the particulate material under inspection in aerosol form [2-4]. Optical trapping (OT) permits the isolation and manipulation of individual particles from the aerosol, which are subsequently analyzed by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Once catapulted, the dynamics of particle trapping depends on the laser beam characteristics (power and intensity gradient) and on the particle properties (size, mass and shape). Particles are stably trapped in air at atmospheric pressure and can be conveniently manipulated for a precise positioning for LIBS analysis. The spectra acquired from the individually trapped particles permit a straightforward identification of the inspected material. The current work focuses on the development of a procedure for simultaneously acquiring dual information about the particle under study via LIBS and time-resolved plasma images by taking advantage of the aforementioned features of the OC-OT-LIBS instrument to align the multiple lines in a simple yet highly accurate way. The plasma imaging does not only further reinforce the spectral data, but also allows a better comprehension of the chemical and physical processes involved during laser-particle interaction. Also, a thorough determination of the optimal excitation conditions generating the most information out of each laser event was run along the determination of parameters such as the width of the optical trap, its stability as a function of the laser power and the laser wavelength. The extreme sensibility of the presented OC-OT-LIBS technology allows a detection power of attograms for single/individual particle analysis.

A REMOTE SENSING APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZE THE HYDROGEOLOGY OF MOUNTAINOUS AREAS: APPLICATION TO THE QUITO AQUIFER SYSTEM (QAS), ECUADOR

Climate change, intensive use, and population growth are threatening the availability of water resources. New sources of water, better knowledge of existing ones, and improved water management strategies are of paramount importance. Ground water is often considered as primary water source due to its advantages in terms of quantity, spatial distribution, and natural quality. Remote sensing techniques afford scientists a unique opportunity to characterize landscapes in order to assess groundwater resources, particularly in tectonically influenced areas. Aquifers in volcanic basins are considered the most productive aquifers in Latin America. Although topography is considered the primary driving force for groundwater flows in mountainous terrains, tectonic activity increases the complexity of these groundwater systems by altering the integrity of sedimentary rock units and the overlying drainage networks. Structural controls affect the primary hydraulic properties of the rock formations by developing barriers to flow in some cases and zones of preferential infiltration and subterranean in others. The study area focuses on the Quito Aquifer System (QAS) in Ecuador. The characterization of the hydrogeology started with a lineament analysis based on a combined remote sensing and digital terrain analysis approach. The application of classical tools for regional hydrogeological evaluation and shallow geophysical methods were useful to evaluate the impact of faulting and fracturing on the aquifer system. Given the spatial extension of the area and the complexity of the system, two levels of analysis were applied in this study. At the regional level, a lineament map was created for the QAS. Relationships between fractures, faults and lineaments and the configuration of the groundwater flow on the QAS were determined. At the local level, on the Plateaus region of the QAS, a detailed lineament map was obtained by using high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery and aspect map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). This map was complemented by the analysis of morphotectonic indicators and shallow geophysics that characterize fracture patterns. The development of the groundwater flow system was studied, drawing upon data pertaining to the aquifer system physical characteristics and topography. Hydrochemistry was used to ascertain the groundwater evolution and verify the correspondence of the flow patterns proposed in the flow system analysis. Isotopic analysis was employed to verify the origin of groundwater. The results of this study show that tectonism plays a very important role for the hydrology of the QAS. The results also demonstrate that faults influence a great deal of the topographic characteristics of the QAS and subsequently the configuration of the groundwater flow. Moreover, for the Plateaus region, the results demonstrate that the aquifer flow systems are affected by secondary porosity. This is a new conceptualization of the functioning of the aquifers on the QAS that will significantly contribute to the development of better strategies for the management of this important water resource.

An inter-laboratory validation of a real time PCR assay to measure host excretion of bacterial pathogens, particularly of Mycobacterium bovis

Advances in the diagnosis of Mycobacterium bovis infection in wildlife hosts may benefit the development of sustainable approaches to the management of bovine tuberculosis in cattle. In the present study, three laboratories from two different countries participated in a validation trial to evaluate the reliability and reproducibility of a real time PCR assay in the detection and quantification of M. bovis from environmental samples. The sample panels consisted of negative badger faeces spiked with a dilution series of M. bovis BCG Pasteur and of field samples of faeces from badgers of unknown infection status taken from badger latrines in areas with high and low incidence of bovine TB (bTB) in cattle. Samples were tested with a previously optimised methodology. The experimental design involved rigorous testing which highlighted a number of potential pitfalls in the analysis of environmental samples using real time PCR. Despite minor variation between operators and laboratories, the validation study demonstrated good concordance between the three laboratories: on the spiked panels, the test showed high levels of agreement in terms of positive/negative detection, with high specificity (100%) and high sensitivity (97%) at levels of 10(5) cells g(-1) and above. Quantitative analysis of the data revealed low variability in recovery of BCG cells between laboratories and operators. On the field samples, the test showed high reproducibility both in terms of positive/negative detection and in the number of cells detected, despite low numbers of samples identified as positive by any laboratory. Use of a parallel PCR inhibition control assay revealed negligible PCR-interfering chemicals co-extracted with the DNA. This is the first example of a multi-laboratory validation of a real time PCR assay for the detection of mycobacteria in environmental samples. Field studies are now required to determine how best to apply the assay for population-level bTB surveillance in wildlife.

IMPROVED SAMPLE INTRODUCTION SYSTEMS FOR INDUCTIVELY COUPLED PLASMA OPTICAL EMISSION SPECTROMETRY AND THEIR APPLICATION TO THE ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE AND COMPLEX MATRICES

The objective of this thesis is to explore new and improved methods for greater sample introduction efficiency and enhanced analytical performance with inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Three projects are discussed in which the capabilities and applications of ICP-OES are expanded: 1. In the first project, a conventional ultrasonic nebuliser was modified to replace the heater/condenser with an infrared heated pre-evaporation tube. In continuation from previous works with pre-evaporation, the current work investigated the effects of heating with infrared block and rope heaters on two different ICP-OES instruments. Comparisons were made between several methods and setups in which temperatures were varied. By monitoring changes to sensitivity, detection limit, precision, and robustness, and analyzing two certified reference materials, a method with improved sample introduction efficiency and comparable analytical performance to a previous method was established. 2. The second project involved improvements to a previous work in which a multimode sample introduction system (MSIS) was modified by inserting a pre-evaporation tube between the MSIS and torch. The new work focused on applying an infrared heated ceramic rope for pre-evaporation. This research was conducted in all three MSIS modes (nebulisation mode, hydride generation mode, and dual mode) and on two different ICP-OES instruments, and comparisons were made between conventional setups in terms of sensitivity, detection limit, precision, and robustness. By tracking both hydride-forming and non-hydride forming elements, the effects of heating in combination with hydride generation were probed. Finally, optimal methods were validated by analysis of two certified reference materials. 3. A final project was completed in collaboration with ZincNyx Energy Solutions. This project sought to develop a method for the overall analysis of a 12 M KOH zincate fuel, which is used in green energy backup systems. By employing various techniques including flow injection analysis and standard additions, a final procedure was formulated for the verification of K concentration, as well as the measurement of additives (Al, Fe, Mg, In, Si), corrosion products (such C from CO₃²¯), and Zn particles both in and filtered from solution. Furthermore, the effects of exposing the potassium zincate electrolyte fuel to air were assessed.

Child-centred design supported by comprehensive child application use analysis

Since children already use and explore applications on smartphones, we use this as the starting point for design. Our monitoring and analysis framework, BaranC, enables us to discover and analyse which applications children uses and precisely how they interact with them. The monitoring happens unobtrusively in the background so children interact normally in their own natural environment without artificial constraints. Thus, we can discover to what extent a child of a particular age engages with, and how they physically interact with, existing applications. This information in turn provides the basis for design of new child-centred applications which can then be subject to the same comprehensive child use analysis using our framework. The work focuses on the first aspect, namely, the monitoring and analysis of current child use of smartphones. Experiments show the value of this approach and interesting results have been obtained from this precise monitoring of child smartphone usage.

Educated to Learn : How to enhance the education of computer science and informatics

The very nature of computer science with its constant changes forces those who wish to follow to adapt and react quickly. Large companies invest in being up to date in order to generate revenue and stay active on the market. Universities, on the other hand, need to imply same practices of staying up to date with industry needs in order to produce industry ready engineers. By interviewing former students, now engineers in the industry, and current university staff this thesis aims to learn if there is space for enhancing the education through different lecturing approaches and/or curriculum adaptation and development. In order to address these concerns a qualitative research has been conducted, focusing on data collection obtained through semi-structured live world interviews. The method used follows the seven stages of research interviewing introduced by Kvale and focuses on collecting and preparing relevant data for analysis. The collected data is transcribed, refined, and further on analyzed in the “Findings and analysis” chapter. The focus of analyzing was answering the three research questions; learning how higher education impacts a Computer Science and Informatics Engineers’ job, how to better undergo the transition from studies to working in the industry and how to develop a curriculum that helps support the previous two. Unaltered quoted extracts are presented and individually analyzed. To paint a better picture a theme-wise analysis is presented summing valuable themes that were repeated throughout the interviewing phase. The findings obtained imply that there are several factors directly influencing the quality of education. From the student side, it mostly concerns expectation and dedication involving studies, and from the university side it is commitment to the curriculum development process. Due to the time and resource limitations this research provides findings conducted on a narrowed scope, although it can serve as a great foundation for further development; possibly as a PhD research.

Identification of deep water lantern sharks (Chondrichthyes : Etmopteridae) using morphometric data and multivariate analysis

Taxonomic distinction to species level of deep water sharks is complex and often impossible to achieve during fisheries-related studies. The species of the genus Etmopterus are particularly difficult to identify, so they often appear without species assignation as Etmopetrus sp. or spp. in studies, even those focusing on elasmobranchs. During this work, the morphometric traits of two species of Etmopterus, E. spinax and E. pusillus were studied using 27 different morphological measurements, relatively easy to obtain even in the field. These measurements were processed with multivariate analysis in order to find out the most important ones likely to separate the two species. Sexual dimorphism was also assessed using the same techniques, and it was found that it does not occur in these species. The two Etmopterus species presented in this study share the same habitats in the overlapping ranges of distribution and are caught together on the outer shelves and slopes of the north-eastern Atlantic.

A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

Caracterización y prevalencia del compromiso ocular en pacientes con enfermedad autoinmune y autoinflamatoria en un centro de referencia reumatológica en Colombia entre los años 2000 a 2015

RESUMEN Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de las diferentes enfermedades oftalmológicas que aparecen en el contexto de una enfermedad autoinmune (EAI) en pacientes de un centro de referencia reumatológica en Colombia, según características clínicas y sociodemográficas durante un período de 15 años, comprendido entre los años 2000 a 2015. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, observacional de prevalencia. El tipo de muestreo fue aleatorio estratificado con asignación proporcional en el programa Epidat 3.4. Los datos se analizaron en el programa SPSS v22.0 y se realizó análisis univariado de las variables categóricas, para las variables cuantitativas se realizaron medidas de tendencia central. Resultados: De 1640 historias clínicas revisadas, se encontraron 634 pacientes (38,65%) con compromiso ocular. Si excluimos los pacientes con SS, que por definición presentan ojo seco, 222 pacientes (13,53%) presentaron compromiso oftalmológico. Del total de pacientes, el 83,3% fueron mujeres. La AR fue la enfermedad autoinmune con mayor compromiso oftalmológico con 138 pacientes (62,2%), y en último lugar la sarcoidosis con 1 solo paciente afectado. La QCS fue la manifestación más común en todos los grupos diagnósticos de EAI, con 146 pacientes (63,5%). De 414 pacientes con Síndrome de Sjögren (SS) y QCS 8 presentaron compromiso ocular adicional, siendo la uveítis la segunda patología ocular asociada en pacientes con SS y la primera causa en las espondiloartropatias (71,4 %). Los pacientes con catarata (4,1%) presentaron la mayor prevalencia de uso de corticoide (88.8%). De 222 pacientes, 28 (12,6%) presentaron uveítis. Del total de pacientes, 16 (7,2%) presentaron maculopatía por antimalaráricos y 6 (18,75%) de los pacientes con LES. Los ANAS se presentaron en el 100% los pacientes con trastorno vascular de la retina. Los pacientes con epiescleritis presentaron la mayor proporción de positivización de anticuerpos anti-DNA. La EAI que más presentó epiescleritis fue LES con 4 pacientes (12,5%) El 22% de paciente con anticuerpos anti-RNP presentaron escleritis y 32,1% de los pacientes con uveítis presentaron HLA-B27 positivo. Las manifestaciones oftalmológicas precedieron a las sistémicas entre un 11,1% y un 33,3% de los pacientes. Conclusión: Las enfermedades oculares se presentan con frecuencia en los pacientes colombianos con EAI (38.65%), siendo la AR la enfermedad con mayor compromiso ocular (62,2%) y la QCS la enfermedad ocular con mayor prevalencia en todas las EAI (63,5%). La uveítis se presentó en 28 pacientes (12,6%). Las manifestaciones oftalmológicas pueden preceder a las sistémicas. El examen oftalmológico debe ser incluido en los pacientes con EAI, por ser la enfermedad ocular una comorbilidad frecuente. Adicionalmente, los efectos oftalmológicos de las medicaciones sistémicas utilizadas en EAI deben ser estrechamente monitorizados, durante el curso del tratamiento.

. Attitudes of Elements of the Academic Community in Regard to the Rapid Test of HIV/AIDS

Background: Knowing one’s own seropositivity status of HIV/AIDS is important. Seropositivity can be determined by a rapid HIV/AIDS test. Attitudes towards a rapid test of HIV/AIDS show a predisposition to perform the analysis. Objective: This study investigated, the attitudes of students and staff in a Portuguese university toward rapid HIV/AIDS test. Methods: In a convenience sample, the data was collected on campus in three consecutive years. A selfadministered structured questionnaire was used for data collection. A validated scale for Portuguese students was applied. A sample of 947 (86.3%) students and 150 (13.7%) teaching and non-teaching staff participated. The average age was 24.30 years-old (SD=8.64). Non-parametric tests were applied. Results: Attitudes of professors and non-teaching staff are more favorable in relation to the rapid test of HIV/AIDS, compared to students. Attitudes are also more favorable in the first year in which the study was conducted with both employees and students. The male students express more traditional attitudes. Students of nursing polo have expressed more favorable attitudes to the rapid test of HIV/AIDS. Conclusion: The attitudes towards rapid test of HIV/AIDS are generally favorable. It is necessary to conduct further research considering professors and other university staff. Improving favorable attitudes toward rapid HIV/AIDS test must be a positive fact for health.