Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

Primaries the unifying force

We present a formal model of intra-party politics to explain candidate selection within parties. We think of parties as heterogeneous groups of individuals who aim to implement a set of policies but who differ in their priorities. When party heterogeneity is too large, parties are in danger of splitting into smaller yet more homogeneous groups. In this context we argue that primaries can have a unifying role if the party elite cannot commit to policy concessions. Our model shows how alignment in the preferred policies of various factions within a party, the relative weight of each of these factions and the electoral system interact to create incentives for the adoption of primary elections. We discuss the existing empirical literature in the light of our theoretical predictions to provide a new, structured perspective on the adoption of primary elections.

The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

Genetic Variation among Natural and Laboratory Colony Populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912)(Diptera:Psychodidae) from Colombia

Genetic diversity among three field populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Colombia was studied using isozyme analysis. Study sites were as much as 598 km apart and included populations separated by the eastern Cordillera of the Andes. Genetic variability among populations, estimated by heterozygosity, was within values typical for insects in general (8.1%). Heterozygosity for field populations were compared with a laboratory colony from Colombia (Melgar colony) and were only slightly lower. These results suggest that establishment and long term maintenance of the Melgar colony has had little effect on the level of isozyme variability it carries. Genetic divergences between populations was evaluated using estimates of genetic distance. Genetic divergence among the three field populations was low (D=0.021), suggesting they represent local populations within a single species. Genetic distance between field populations and the Melgar colony was also low (D=0.016), suggesting that this colony population does not depart significantly from natural populations. Finally, comparisons were made between Colombian populations and colonies from Brazil and Costa Rica. Genetic distance values were high between Colombian and both Brazil and Costa Rica colony populations (D=0.199 and 0.098 respectively) providing additional support for our earlier report that populations from the three countries represent distinct species

Lutzomyia sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) from middle and lower Putumayo department, Colombia, with new records to the country

A total of 4,840 phlebotomine sand flies from 54 localities in Putumayo department (=state), in the Colombian Amazon region, were collected in Shannon traps, CDC light traps, resting places and from human baits. At least 42 Lutzomyia species were registered for the first time to the department. Psychodopygus and Nyssomyia were the subgenera with the greatest number of taxa, the most common species being L. (N.) yuilli and L. (N.) pajoti. They were sympatric in a wide zone of Putumayo, indicating that they should be treated as full species (new status). Among the anthropophilic sand flies, L. gomezi and L. yuilli were found in intradomiciliar, peridomestic, urban or forest habitats. L. richardwardi, L. claustrei, L. nocticola and L. micropyga are reported for the first time in the Colombian Amazon basin. L. pajoti, L. sipani and L. yucumensis are new records for Colombia.

Effect of a second bloodmeal on the oesophagus colonization by Leishmania mexicana complex in Lutzomyia evansi (Diptera: Psychodidae)

Migration and colonization of the oesophagus by Leishmania mexicana parasites were enhanced after digestion of a second bloodmeal intake in Lutzomyia evansi. This event has epidemiological significance since it affects the infection susceptibility of this sand fly species, which is a proven vector of L. chagasi in Colombian and Venezuelan visceral leishmaniasis foci. Also, it may explain the host seeking behaviour displayed by some partially bloodfed flies found inside houses.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Variation in susceptibility to benznidazole in isolates derived from Trypanosoma cruzi parental strains

In this work, the susceptibility to benznidazole of two parental Trypanosoma cruzi strains, Colombian and Berenice-78, was compared to isolates obtained from dogs infected with these strains for several years. In order to evaluate the susceptibility to benznidazole two groups of mice were infected with one of five distinct populations isolated from dogs as well as the two parental strains of T. cruzi. The first group was treated with benznidazole during the acute phase and the second remained untreated controls. The animals were considered cured when parasitological and serological tests remained persistently negative. Mice infected with the Colombian strain and its isolates Colombian (A and B) did not cure after treatment. On the other hand, all animals infected with Berenice-78 were cured by benznidazole treatment. However, 100%, 50% and 70% of cure rates were observed in animals infected with the isolates Berenice-78 B, C and D, respectively. No significant differences were observed in serological profile of infected control groups, with all animals presenting high antibody levels. However, the ELISA test showed differences in serological patterns between mice inoculated with the different T. cruzi isolates and treated with benznidazole. This variability was dependent on the T. cruzi population used and seemed to be associated with the level of resistance to benznidazole.

Fibrogenesis and collagen resorption in the heart and skeletal muscle of Calomys callosus experimentally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi: immunohistochemical identification of extracellular matrix components

Intense inflammatory lesions and early development of interstitial fibrosis of the myocardium and skeletal muscle with spontaneous regression, have been described in Calomys callosus infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The genetic types of collagen present in this model were investigated through immunohistochemistry using specific antibodies, combined with histopathology and Picro-Sirius staining of collagen. Thirty-five calomys were infected with the Colombian strain of T. cruzi and sacrificed at 24, 30, 40, 60 and 90 days post-infection. Inflammatory lesions and fibrogenesis were prominent at the early phase of infection and significantly decreased during late infection. Immunoisotyping of the matrix components was performed by indirect immunofluorescence on 5 µm thick cryostat sections using specific antibodies against laminin, fibronectin and isotypes I, III and IV of collagen. In the early phase, positive deposits of all the matrix components were present, with predominance of fibronectin, laminin and collagens types I and III in the myocardium and of types III and IV in the skeletal muscles. From the 40th day, type IV collagen predominates in the heart. At the late phase of infection (60th to 90th day), a clear fragmentation and decrease of all the matrix components were detected. Findings of the present study indicate that a modulation of the inflammatory process occurs in the model of C. callosus, leading to spontaneous regression of fibrosis independent of the genetic types of collagen involved in this process.

Susceptibility of spiny rats (Proechimys semispinosus) to Leishmania (Viannia) panamensis and Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi

The role of Proechimys semispinosus as reservoir of Leishmania (Viannia) panamensis on the Colombian Pacific coast was experimentally evaluated. The susceptibility to L. chagasi also was assessed to determine the utility of this rodent as a model for studying reservoir characteristics in the laboratory. Wild-caught animals were screened for natural trypanosomatid infections, and negative individuals were inoculated intradermally (ID) in the snout or feet with 10(7) promastigotes of L. panamensis. L. chagasi was inoculated intracardially (10(7) promastigotes) or ID in the ear (10(8) promastigotes). PCR-hybridization showed that 15% of 33 spiny rats were naturally infected with L. Viannia sp. Animals experimentally infected with L. panamensis developed non-ulcerated lesions that disappeared by the 7th week post-infection (p.i.) and became more resistant upon reinfection. Infectivity to sand flies was low (1/20-1/48 infected/fed flies) and transient, and both culture and PCR-hybridization showed that L. panamensis was cleared by the 13th week p.i. Animals inoculated with L. chagasi became subclinically infected and were non-infective to sand flies. Transient infectivity to vectors of spiny rats infected with L. panamensis, combined with population characteristics, e.g., abundance, exploitation of degraded habitats and high reproductive rates, could make them epidemiologically suitable reservoirs.

Morphological and polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment lenght polymorphism characterization of Biomphalaria kuhniana and Biomphalaria amazonica from Colombia

In Colombia, five Biomphalaria planorbid species are known: B. kuhniana, B. straminea, B. peregrina, B. canonica and B. oligoza(var. B. philippiana). Among them, B. straminea is intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni and B. peregrina has been found to be experimentally susceptible to this parasite. B. straminea is commonly confused with B. kuhniana and they have been clustered together with B. intermedia in the complex named B. straminea. The difficulties involved in the specific identification, based on morphological data, have motivated the use of new techniques as auxiliary tools in cases of inconclusive morphological identification of such planorbid. In the present study, five Biomphalaria populations from the Colombian Amazon region and from Interandian Valleys were morphologically identified and characterized by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment lenght polymorphism directed at the internal transcribed spacer region of the rRNA gene, followed by digestion of the generated fragment with restriction enzymes (DdeI, AluI, RsaI, MvaI and HaeIII). Known profiles of the Brazilian species B. straminea, B. peregrina, B. kuhniana, B. intermedia and B. amazonica, besides B. kuhniana from Colombia, were used for comparison. The five populations under study were morphologically and molecularly identified as B. kuhniana and B. amazonica.

Detection of Giardia duodenalis antigen in human fecal eluates by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using polyclonal antibodies

The present study developed and standardized an enzime-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect Giardia antigen in feces using rabbit polyclonal antibodies. Giardia cysts were purified from human fecal samples by sucrose and percoll gradients. Gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) were infected to obtain trophozoites. Rabbits were inoculated with either cyst or trophozoite antigens of 14 Colombian Giardia isolates to develop antibodies against the respective stages. The IgG anti-Giardia were purified by sequential caprylic acid and ammonium sulfate precipitation. A portion of these polyclonal antibodies was linked to alkaline phosphatase (conjugate). One hundred and ninety six samples of human feces, from different patients, were tested by parasitologic diagnosis: 69 were positive for Giardia cysts, 56 had no Giardia parasites, and 71 revealed parasites other than Giardia. The optimal concentration of polyclonal antibodies for antigen capture was 40 µg/ml and the optimal conjugate dilution was 1:100. The absorbance cut-off value was 0.24. The parameters of the ELISA test for Giardia antigen detection were: sensitivity, 100% (95% CI: 93.4-100%); specificity, 95% (95% CI: 88.6-97.6%); positive predictive value, 91% (95% CI: 81.4-95.9%); and negative predictive value, 100% (95% CI: 96.1-100%). This ELISA will improve the diagnosis of Giardia infections in Colombia and will be useful in following patients after treatment.

Random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis of Anopheles nuneztovari (Diptera: Culicidae) from Western and Northeastern Colombia

Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers were used to analyze 119 DNA samples of three Colombian Anopheles nuneztovari populations to study genetic variation and structure. Genetic diversity, estimated from heterozygosity, averaged 0.34. Genetic flow was greater between the two populations located in Western Colombia (F ST: 0.035; Nm: 6.8) but lower between these two and the northeastern population (F ST: 0.08; Nm: 2.8). According to molecular variance analysis, the genetic distance between populations was significant (phiST 0.1131, P < 0.001). The variation among individuals within populations (phiST 0.8869, P < 0.001)was also significant, suggesting a greater degree of population subdivision, not considered in this study. Both the parameters evaluated and the genetic flow suggest that Colombian An. nuneztovari populations are co-specific.