Interest rate restrictions in a natural experiment: loan allocation and the change in the usury laws in 1714

This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British governmenttightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to5%. A sample of individual loan transactions reveals that average loan size and minimum loan sizeincreased strongly, while access to credit worsened for those with little social capital. Collateralisedcredits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role ofprominence. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly; we findno evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.

Resting metabolic rate in six- to ten-year-old obese and nonobese children.

The resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition of 130 obese and nonobese prepubertal children, aged 6 to 10 years, were assessed by indirect calorimetry and skin-fold thickness, respectively. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was 4619 +/- 449 kJ.day-1 (164 +/- 31 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 62 boys and 4449 +/- 520 kJ.day-1 (147 +/- 32 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 68 girls. Fat-free mass was the best single predictor of RMR (R2 = 0.64; p < 0.001). Step-down multiple regression analysis, with independent variables such as age, gender, weight, and height, allowed several RMR predictive equations to be developed. An equation for boys is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1) = 1287 + 28.6 x Weight(kg) + 23.6 x Height(cm) - 69.1 x Age(yr) (R2 = 0.58; p < 0.001). An equation for girls is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1 = 1552 + 35.8 x Weight (kg) + 15.6 x Height (cm) - 36.3 x Age (yr) (R2 = 0.69; p < 0.001). Comparison between the measured RMR and that predicted by currently used formulas showed that most of these equations tended to overestimate the RMR of both genders, especially in overweight children.

The effect of treatment with calcitonin on vertebral fracture rate in osteoporosis.

The efficacy of treatments for osteoporosis does not become evident when evaluated by fracture incidence (FI). Vertebral FI decreased in all controlled studies on calcitonin, but not significantly. Small sample sizes and short periods of treatment may have masked a possible therapeutic benefit, but longer, controlled studies with sodium fluoride or etidronate in larger groups of patients also failed to show a decrease in FI. The present analysis of nine published, therapeutic studies which indicate the FI per year and the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures, examines the question of whether the initial prevalence of fractures has an effect on the subsequent incidence of new fractures and whether the therapeutic effects have to be evaluated as a function of the initial prevalence of fractures. Bearing in mind the differences in roentgenological evaluation and in the size and quality of the various studies, the analysis revealed (1) that in the control groups there was a higher FI in patients with more than three vertebral fractures at baseline (estimated odds ratio (OR) = 49, p = 0.011); (2) that a similar trend, although not statistically significant, was observed in treated patients; (3) that the groups of control patients treated for more than 1 year showed in general an increase in FI beyond the first year and that the reverse was true in treated patients. In conclusion, failure to allow for the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures at the individual level in therapeutic trials of calcitonin to treat osteoporosis and prevent new fractures might have contributed to the absence of a demonstrable benefit of the treatment in those studies.

Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

Association of socioeconomic position with health behaviors and mortality

CONTEXT: Previous studies may have underestimated the contribution of health behaviors to social inequalities in mortality because health behaviors were assessed only at the baseline of the study. OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of health behaviors in the association between socioeconomic position and mortality and compare whether their contribution differs when assessed at only 1 point in time with that assessed longitudinally through the follow-up period. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Established in 1985, the British Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study includes 10 308 civil servants, aged 35 to 55 years, living in London, England. Analyses are based on 9590 men and women followed up for mortality until April 30, 2009. Socioeconomic position was derived from civil service employment grade (high, intermediate, and low) at baseline. Smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity were assessed 4 times during the follow-up period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 654 participants died during the follow-up period. In the analyses adjusted for sex and year of birth, those with the lowest socioeconomic position had 1.60 times higher risk of death from all causes than those with the highest socioeconomic position (a rate difference of 1.94/1000 person-years). This association was attenuated by 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21%-94%) when health behaviors assessed at baseline were entered into the model and by 72% (95% CI, 42%-154%) when they were entered as time-dependent covariates. The corresponding attenuations were 29% (95% CI, 11%-54%) and 45% (95% CI, 24%-79%) for cardiovascular mortality and 61% (95% CI, 16%-425%) and 94% (95% CI, 35%-595%) for noncancer and noncardiovascular mortality. The difference between the baseline only and repeated assessments of health behaviors was mostly due to an increased explanatory power of diet (from 7% to 17% for all-cause mortality, respectively), physical activity (from 5% to 21% for all-cause mortality), and alcohol consumption (from 3% to 12% for all-cause mortality). The role of smoking, the strongest mediator in these analyses, did not change when using baseline or repeat assessments (from 32% to 35% for all-cause mortality). CONCLUSION: In a civil service population in London, England, there was an association between socioeconomic position and mortality that was substantially accounted for by adjustment for health behaviors, particularly when the behaviors were assessed repeatedly.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

Rate of development of forensically-important Dipterain southern Brazil

Dipteran larvae were collected from rabbit (Oryctolagus cunniculus L.) carcasses during the four seasons in 2005 in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The larvae were fed ground beef at ambient temperatures following collection from carcasses. The development of each species under these conditions was estimated. The most abundant species in the carcasses were Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) and Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Calliphoridae), and they were found in all seasons. The data were fitted to a linear model that describes the relationship between temperature and linear developmental rating. These two species are primary forensic indicators in southern Brazil. Other species such as Hemilucilia semidiaphana (Rondani) (Calliphoridae), Synthesiomyia nudiseta (Wulp), Muscina stabulans (Fallen) (Muscidae), and Fannia pusio (Wiedemann) (Fanniidae) were forensically less important because they only occurred in high frequency in certain seasons and during the first days of carcass decomposition.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

The rate-limiting step for glucose transport into the hypothalamus is across the blood-hypothalamus interface.

Specialized glucosensing neurons are present in the hypothalamus, some of which neighbor the median eminence, where the blood-brain barrier has been reported leaky. A leaky blood-brain barrier implies high tissue glucose levels and obviates a role for endothelial glucose transporters in the control of hypothalamic glucose concentration, important in understanding the mechanisms of glucose sensing We therefore addressed the question of blood-brain barrier integrity at the hypothalamus for glucose transport by examining the brain tissue-to-plasma glucose ratio in the hypothalamus relative to other brain regions. We also examined glycogenolysis in hypothalamus because its occurrence is unlikely in the potential absence of a hypothalamus-blood interface. Across all regions the concentration of glucose was comparable at a given plasma glucose concentration and was a near linear function of plasma glucose. At steady-state, hypothalamic glucose concentration was similar to the extracellular hypothalamic glucose concentration reported by others. Hypothalamic glycogen fell at a rate of approximately 1.5 micromol/g/h and remained present in substantial amounts. We conclude for the hypothalamus, a putative primary site of brain glucose sensing that: the rate-limiting step for glucose transport into brain cells is at the blood-hypothalamus interface, and that glycogenolysis is consistent with a substantial blood -to- intracellular glucose concentration gradient.

Physiological state and rate protein synthesis of phytoplankton off the coast of Peru as measured by sulfur-35 incorporation

Analiza el estado de la fisiología del fitoplancton de las aguas costeras cercanas a Perú

Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

The impact of women's educational and economic resources on fertility. Spanish birth cohorts 1901-1950

In this chapter we portray the effects of female education and professional achievementon fertility decline in Spain over the period 1920-1980 (birth cohorts of 1900-1950).A longitudinal econometric approach is used to test the hypothesis that the effectsof women s education in the revaluing of their time had a very significant influence onfertility decline. Although in the historical context presented here improvements inschooling were on a modest scale, they were continuous (with the interruption of theCivil War) and had a significant impact in shaping a model of low fertility in Spain. Wealso stress the relevance of this result in a context such as the Spanish for which liberalvalues were absent, fertility control practices were forbidden, and labour forceparticipation of women was politically and socially constrained.

Contribution of ultrasonographic examination to the prenatal detection of chromosomal abnormalities in 19 centres across Europe.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the prenatal detection of chromosomal abnormalities by fetal ultrasonographic examination in a large database provided by 19 Registries of Congenital Anomalies from 11 European countries. This study included 1738 cases of chromosomal abnormalities, liveborn, stillborn or termination of pregnancy regardless of maternal age from a population of 664,340 births during the period 1996 - 1998. The most frequent chromosomal anomalies were Down syndrome (n=1050), trisomy 18 (n=191), Turner syndrome (n=125), trisomy 13 (n=86), and triploidy (n=56). Fetal ultrasonographic examination resulted in the prenatal detection of 37.7% of the chromosomal abnormalities, thereby resulting in a reduction of 28.6% in their prevalence at birth due to terminations of pregnancy. The detection rate by ultrasound examination varied according to local policies of prenatal diagnosis : it was lower in countries where routine scan were not performed and higher in countries in which at least one routine anomaly scan during the second trimester of pregnancy was performed. The ultrasound detection varied according to the specific chromosomal anomaly and was lowest for Klinefelter syndrome (5.7%) and highest for triploidy (78.6%). For Down syndrome it was 26.4%. Termination of pregnancy was performed in 75.9% of the cases. Among the 655 cases detected by ultrasound, the most frequent ultrasound signs by category of chromosomal abnormalities were analysed. This study shows that ultrasound screening is an important tool in the prenatal detection of chromosomal abnormalities in Europe, leading to a significant reduction in the prevalence of livebirth children with chromosomal anomalies.

Mother's attachment representations of their premature infant at 6 and 18 months after birth.

The effects of premature birth on attachment have generally been examined from the infant's perspective. There is a lack of data concerning parental attachment representations toward a premature child. Because of the psychological stress engendered in parents confronted with a premature birth, we hypothesized that their attachment representations would be altered during the first months after the hospital discharge. Fifty families with a premature infant (25-33 gestation weeks) and a control group of 30 families with a full-term infant participated to the study. Perinatal risks were evaluated during hospitalization. To assess mothers' representations of their infant, the Working Model of the Child Interview (WMCI, Zeanah & Benoit, 1995 & Benoit, Zeanah, Parker, Nicholson, & Coolbear, 1997) were administered when their children were 6 and 18 months old. The severity of the perinatal risks was found to have an impact on the mothers' attachment representations. At six months, only 20% of the mothers of a prematurely born infant (30% at 18 months) had secure attachment representations, vs. 53% for the control group (57% at 18 months). Furthermore, mothers of low-risk premature infants more often had disengaged representations, whereas distorted representations were more frequent in the high-risk group of premature children. These findings suggest that the parental response to a premature birth is linked to the severity of postnatal risks. The fact that secure attachment representations are affected in mothers of low-risk infants just as much as they are in mothers of high-risk infants points to the need to conduct further studies aimed at evaluating whether preventive intervention for both low-risk and high-risk premature will be helpful.