967 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing


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A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

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Nuclear DNA markers, such as short tandem repeats (STR), are widely used for crime investigation and paternity testing. STR were used to determine whether a piece of tissue regurgitated by a dog was part of the penis of a dead, emasculated, man. Unexpectedly, when analyzing the recovered material and a blood sample from the deceased, five out of the 18 loci differed. According to the results, one could have concluded that these samples originated from two different persons. However, taking into account contextual information and data from complementary genetic analyses, the most likely hypothesis was that the deceased was a genetic mosaic or a chimera. Within a forensic genetic context, such genetic peculiarities may prevent associating the perpetrator of an offense with a stain left at a crime scene or lead to false paternity exclusions. Fast recognition of mosaics or chimeras, adapted sampling scheme, as well as careful interpretation of the data should allow avoiding such pitfalls.

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El presente trabajo de investigación doctoral reflexiona sobre el aporte de las prácticas artísticas contemporáneas en los procesos de diálogo entre culturas en el Mediterráneo. En las dinámicas de percepción, acercamiento y (re)conocimiento del otro y de las culturas otras, todos los medios informativos y de comunicación pueden ser, por un lado, válidos y efectivos como, por otro, pueden desviar de la verdad y difundir fácilmente numerosos prejuicios. Frente a la “síntesis” operada por los medios de comunicación tradicionales, donde “el Otro” es a menudo objeto de representaciones estereotipadas, las prácticas artísticas, en su sentido más amplio, contraponen un “análisis” que puede permitir, en diferentes casos, la eliminación de las barreras y un mayor acercamiento a la cultura otra. En la presente investigación se quiere trazar un itinerario teórico que parte de las hipótesis orientalistas, pasa por las filosofías del encuentro con el otro; los estudios sobre la participación; las actuales reflexiones sobre la estética relacional; las definiciones históricas y socio-políticas del Mediterráneo; hasta llegar a reconocer en el arte, en la creación artística, el medio de comunicación más eficaz y penetrante a la hora de refinar el conocimiento y (re)descubrir los diferentes aspectos de las culturas de los países y de los pueblos del Mediterráneo. En el espacio plural del Mediterráneo las prácticas artísticas y creativas actuales actúan como un campo de experimentación y un territorio de debate valioso e importante para el desarrollo del discurso intercultural.

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Nucleic acid amplification techniques are commonly used currently to diagnose viral diseases and manage patients with this kind of illnesses. These techniques have had a rapid but unconventional route of development during the last 30 years, with the discovery and introduction of several assays in clinical diagnosis. The increase in the number of commercially available methods has facilitated the use of this technology in the majority of laboratories worldwide. This technology has reduced the use of some other techniques such as viral culture based methods and serological assays in the clinical virology laboratory. Moreover, nucleic acid amplification techniques are now the methods of reference and also the most useful assays for the diagnosis in several diseases. The introduction of these techniques and their automation provides new opportunities for the clinical laboratory to affect patient care. The main objectives in performing nucleic acid tests in this field are to provide timely results useful for high-quality patient care at a reasonable cost, because rapid results are associated with improvements in patients care. The use of amplification techniques such as polymerase chain reaction, real-time polymerase chain reaction or nucleic acid sequence-based amplification for virus detection, genotyping and quantification have some advantages like high sensitivity and reproducibility, as well as a broad dynamic range. This review is an up-to-date of the main nucleic acid techniques and their clinical applications, and special challenges and opportunities that these techniques currently provide for the clinical virology laboratory.

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The performance of the nitrate reductase assay (NRA) was compared with the proportion method (PM) on Lowenstein-Jensen medium and the BACTEC MGIT960 assay under routine conditions using 160 clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with a high proportion of resistant strains. The mean time to obtain results was 8.8 days and the overall agreements between NRA and PM and NRA and M960 were 95% and 94%, respectively. NRA was easy to perform and represents a useful tool for the rapid screening of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains in low-resource countries.

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Determining the prevalence and type of antiretroviral (ARV) resistance among ARV-naïve individuals is important to assess the potential responses of these individuals to first-line regimens. The prevalence of primary resistance and the occurrence of recent infections among individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) were identified among recently diagnosed patients at five sexually transmitted disease/AIDS testing and counselling centres in the metropolitan region of Recife (RMR), Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2007-2009. One-hundred and eight samples were analysed using the Calypte® BED assay. Males predominated (56%), as did patients aged 31-50 years. Twenty-three percent presented evidence of a recent HIV infection. The median CD4+ T lymphocyte count was 408 cells/mm³ and the median viral load was 3.683 copies/mL. The prevalence of primary resistance was 4.6% (confidence interval 95% = 1-8.2%) based on criteria that excluded common polymorphisms in accordance with the surveillance drug resistance mutation criteria. The prevalence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase, nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors were 3.8%, 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively. Fifty-seven percent of strains were from clade B, 37.7% were clade F and 3.1% were clade C; there were no statistically significant differences with respect to resistance between clades. Recent infection tended to be more common in men (p = 0.06) and in municipalities in the south of the RMR (Jaboatão dos Guararapes and Cabo de Santo Agostinho) (p = 0.046). The high prevalence of recent infection and the high prevalence of non-B strains in this poor Brazilian region merit further attention.

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In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

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CONCLUSION: Chronic subjective dizziness (CSD) is frequent and affects twice as many women as men. Anxiety is a strong predisposing factor. The pathophysiologic concept of this disorder assumes that balance function and emotion share common neurologic pathways, which might explain that the balance disorder can provoke fear and vice versa, giving rise to a problem in perception of space and motion. In anxious patients this can turn into a space and motion phobia, with avoidance behaviour. OBJECTIVE: CSD is a diagnosis based on the hypothesis of an interaction between the vestibular system and the psychiatric sphere. Patients complain of chronic imbalance, worsened by visual motion stimulation, and frequently suffer from anxiety. Vestibular examination reveals no anomalies. We evaluated the incidence and characteristics of CSD in patients referred to our neuro-otology centre (tertiary hospital outpatient clinic). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1552 consecutive patients presenting with vertigo. CSD was diagnosed in 164 patients (female:male=111:53). RESULTS: CSD represents 10.6% of the dizzy patients in our clinic. Psychiatric disorder, mainly anxiety, was found in 79.3% of the cases. Other frequently associated factors were fear of heights and former vestibular lesion (healed). In all, 79.0% of the patients with CSD had poor balance performance on dynamic posturography testing.

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A ubiquitous assessment of swimming velocity (main metric of the performance) is essential for the coach to provide a tailored feedback to the trainee. We present a probabilistic framework for the data-driven estimation of the swimming velocity at every cycle using a low-cost wearable inertial measurement unit (IMU). The statistical validation of the method on 15 swimmers shows that an average relative error of 0.1 ± 9.6% and high correlation with the tethered reference system (rX,Y=0.91 ) is achievable. Besides, a simple tool to analyze the influence of sacrum kinematics on the performance is provided.

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SUMMARY : The shrews are among the most ancient of living eutherian mammals. They represent an interesting comparative model because of their extreme divergent species. The two shrew subfamilies, Soricinae and Crocidurinae are characterized by fundamental differences concerning their metabolic rates, litter size, period of gestation and different mating pattern. In this study we established and compared the sperm characteristics in four species of different genera of shrews (Sorex araneus, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula and Suncus murinus) in the context of the sperm competition hypothesis. The sperm competition concerns the competition between ejaculates of different males for fertilization of ova of a female within a single estrus period. As expected, a greater relative testis size (indicating the importance of polyandry) was associated with a higher number of cauda epididymal spermatozoa, higher level of circulating testosterone and a higher percentage of progressive sperm motility. In addition, we investigated if the basal metabolic rate (BMR) and relative testis size (RTS) may be correlated with the cycle length of spermatogenesis. In this purpose, we determined and compared the cycle length of spermatogenesis in six species of shrews belonging to two subfamilies: Soiricinae (Sorex araneus, Sorex coronatus, Sorex minutus, Neomys fodiens) and Crocidurinae (Crocidura russula, Sunctes murinus). Our results indicate that sperm competition and metabolic rate may act independently or together reducing cycle length of spermatogenesis and thus increase sperm production. We finally investigated this correlation across 32 mammalian species. After testing the data for phylogenetic independence, our results showed that BMR explained only 21 % of the variation, while the RTS explained 44% of the variation of the cycle length of spermatogenesis. The level of the sperm competition, indicated by RTS, is thus to our knowledge the most important factor influencing the speed of spermatogenesis in mammals. RESUME : Les musaraignes sont parmi les plus anciens mammifères vivants. Grâce à leurs extrêmes divergences, ils sont souvent utilisés comme modèles dans des études comparatives. Les deux sous-familles Soricinae et Crocidurinae sont caractérisées par des différences fondamentales, notamment en termes d'intensité du métabolisme, des stratégies de reproduction et du comportement social. Dans la première partie de cette étude, nous avons établi et comparé certaines "caractéristiques des spermatozoïdes chez quatre espèces de musaraignes appartenant à des genres différents (Sorex araneus, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula et Suncus murinus). Les résultats ont été interprétés dans le contexte de la théorie de la compétition spermatique, c'est-à-dire la compétition entre le sperme de deux ou plusieurs mâles pour féconder un maximum d'ovules de la même femelle. Cette compétition spermatique peut amener à certaines adaptations biologiques afin de produire plus de sperme. Comme attendu, une grande taille relative des testicules est associée à un nombre élevé de spermatozoïdes, dont la majorité présente une mobilité progressive. Un taux élévé de testostérone a également été observé. De plus, nous avons étudié l'influence du métabolisme basal ainsi que l'intensité de la compétition spermatique sur la durée du cycle de la spermatogenèse. Dans ce but, nous avons déterminé et comparé les durées de la spermatogenèse chez six espèces de musaraignes appartenant à deux sous-familles : Soricinae (Sorex araneus, Sorex coronatus, Sorex minutus, Neomys fodiens) et Crocidurinae (Crocidura russula, Suncus murinus). Les résultats obtenus indiquent que ces deux facteurs (l'intensité du métabolisme basal et de la compétition spermatique) agissent d'une manière dépendante ou indépendante dans le même sens. La conséquence de ces actions est une diminution de la durée de la spermatogenèse entraînant une augmentation de la production de spermatozoïdes. Nous avons finalement étudié ce phénomène dans l'ensemble des mammifères. Après avoir testé l'indépendance phylogénétique, nos résultats montrent que l'intensité de la compétition spermatique indiquée par le RTS est mieux corrélée avec la régulation de la durée de la spermatogenèse qu'avec l'intensité du métabolisme.

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The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvement is imperative. In fact, with current methods for DNA analysis (Polymerase Chain Reaction with the SGM Plus™ multiplex kit), it is generally not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minor contributor if the ratio between the two contributors in a mixture is smaller than 1:10. This is a consequence of the fact that the major contributor's profile 'masks' that of the minor contributor. Besides known remedies to this problem, such as Y-STR analysis, a new compound genetic marker that consists of a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP), linked to a Short Tandem Repeat (STR) polymorphism, has recently been developed and proposed elsewhere in literature [1]. The present paper reports on the derivation of an approach for the probabilistic evaluation of DIP-STR profiling results obtained from unbalanced DNA mixtures. The procedure is based on object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) and uses the likelihood ratio as an expression of the probative value. OOBNs are retained in this paper because they allow one to provide a clear description of the genotypic configuration observed for the mixed stain as well as for the various potential contributors (e.g., victim and suspect). These models also allow one to depict the assumed relevance relationships and perform the necessary probabilistic computations.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of a new and accurate method for the detection of isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF) resistance among Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates using a crystal violet decolourisation assay (CVDA). Fifty-five M. tuberculosis isolates obtained from culture stocks stored at -80ºC were tested. After bacterial inoculation, the samples were incubated at 37ºC for seven days and 100 µL of CV (25 mg/L stock solution) was then added to the control and sample tubes. The tubes were incubated for an additional 24-48 h. CV (blue/purple) was decolourised in the presence of bacterial growth; thus, if CV lost its colour in a sample containing a drug, the tested isolate was reported as resistant. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and agreement for INH were 92.5%, 96.4%, 96.1%, 93.1% and 94.5%, respectively, and 88.8%, 100%, 100%, 94.8% and 96.3%, respectively, for RIF. The results were obtained within eight-nine days. This study shows that CVDA is an effective method to detect M. tuberculosis resistance to INH and RIF in developing countries. This method is rapid, simple and inexpensive. Nonetheless, further studies are necessary before routine laboratory implementation.

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The accuracy of the MicroScan WalkAway, BD Phoenix, and Vitek-2 systems for susceptibility testing of quinolones and aminoglycosides against 68 enterobacteria containing qnrB, qnrS, and/or aac(6 ')-Ib-cr was evaluated using reference microdilution. Overall, one very major error (0.09%), 6 major errors (0.52%), and 45 minor errors (3.89%) were noted.

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Medical geography expanded considerably in the 19 th century. Its expansion was aided by a Neo-Hippocratic trend in medical thinking, progress in statistics and hygiene, and an overall vision of geography formulated early in the century by French and German geographers inspired by Alexander von Humboldt. By tracing out the process that prompted certain « doctor-geographers » to put forth the hypothesis of immunity phthisis in elevated regions, this article seeks to show how various trends in medical geography led to the establishment of the « altitude cure » as a treatment for tuberculosis.