Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.

Exploring the properties of macroscopic fundamental diagram : analysing Brisbane urban network

This thesis explored traffic characteristics at the aggregate level for area-wide traffic monitoring of large urban area. It focused on three aspects: understanding a macroscopic network performance under real-time traffic information provision, measuring traffic performance of a signalised arterial network using available data sets, and discussing network zoning for monitoring purposes in the case of Brisbane, Australia. This work presented the use of probe vehicle data for estimating traffic state variables, and illustrated dynamic features of regional traffic performance of Brisbane. The results confirmed the viability and effectiveness of area-wide traffic monitoring.

Antisocial behaviour orders : Unanticipated directions in social network site development

Abstract: Social network technologies, as we know them today have become a popular feature of everyday life for many people. As their name suggests, their underlying premise is to enable people to connect with each other for a variety of purposes. These purposes however, are generally thought of in a positive fashion. Based on a multi-method study of two online environments, Habbo Hotel and Second Life, which incorporate social networking functionality, we she light on forms of what can be conceptualized as antisocial behaviours and the rationales for these. Such behaviours included: scamming, racist/homophobic attacks, sim attacks, avatar attacks, non-conformance to contextual norms, counterfeiting and unneighbourly behaviour. The rationales for sub behaviours included: profit, fun, status building, network disruption, accidental acts and prejudice. Through our analysis we are able to comment upon the difficulties of defining antisocial behaviour in such environments, particularly when such environments are subject to interpretation vis their use and expected norms. We also point to the problems we face in conducting our public and private lives given the role ICTs are playing in the convergence of these two spaces and also the convergence of ICTs themselves.

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation

Quantifying the impact of biochemical compounds on collective cell spreading is an essential element of drug design, with various applications including developing treatments for chronic wounds and cancer. Scratch assays are a technically simple and inexpensive method used to study collective cell spreading; however, most previous interpretations of scratch assays are qualitative and do not provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, or the cell proliferation rate,l. Estimating D and l is important for investigating the efficacy of a potential treatment and provides insight into the mechanism through which the potential treatment acts. While a few methods for estimating D and l have been proposed, these previous methods lead to point estimates of D and l, and provide no insight into the uncertainty in these estimates. Here, we compare various types of information that can be extracted from images of a scratch assay, and quantify D and l using discrete computational simulations and approximate Bayesian computation. We show that it is possible to robustly recover estimates of D and l from synthetic data, as well as a new set of experimental data. For the first time, our approach also provides a method to estimate the uncertainty in our estimates of D and l. We anticipate that our approach can be generalized to deal with more realistic experimental scenarios in which we are interested in estimating D and l, as well as additional relevant parameters such as the strength of cell-to-cell adhesion or the strength of cell-to-substrate adhesion.

Pipeline renewal decision support : a case study using LinEAR in a water pipeline network

This paper presents a case study for the application of a Linear Engineering Asset Renewal decision support software tool (LinEAR) at a water distribution network in Australia. This case study examines how the LinEAR can assist water utilities to minimise their total pipeline management cost, to make a long-term budget based on mathematically predicted expenditure, and to present calculated evidence for supporting their expenditure requirements. The outcomes from the study on pipeline renewal decision support demonstrate that LinEAR can help water utilities to improve the decision process and save renewal costs over a long-term by providing an optimum renewal schedules. This software can help organisation to accumulate technical knowledge and prediction future impact of the decision using what-if analysis.

Demand Response for Residential Appliances in a Smart Electricity Distribution Network: Utility and Customer Perspectives

This thesis introduces advanced Demand Response algorithms for residential appliances to provide benefits for both utility and customers. The algorithms are engaged in scheduling appliances appropriately in a critical peak day to alleviate network peak, adverse voltage conditions and wholesale price spikes also reducing the cost of residential energy consumption. Initially, a demand response technique via customer reward is proposed, where the utility controls appliances to achieve network improvement. Then, an improved real-time pricing scheme is introduced and customers are supported by energy management schedulers to actively participate in it. Finally, the demand response algorithm is improved to provide frequency regulation services.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.