Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basic oxygen furnace slag as a treatment material for pathogens: Contribution of inactivation and attachment in virus attenuation

Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag media were studied as a potential treatment material in on-site sanitation systems. Batch and column studies were conducted to evaluate attenuation of the bacteriophage PR772 and 0.190 mu m diameter microspheres by BOF media, and to delineate the relative contributions of two principle processes of virus attenuation: inactivation and attachment. In the batch studies, conducted at 4 degrees C, substantial inactivation of PR772 did not occur in the pH 7.6 and 9.5 suspensions. At pH 11.4, bimodal inactivation of PR772 was observed, at an initial rate of 2.1 log C/C(0) day(-1) for the first two days, followed by a much slower rate of 0.124 log C/C(0) day(-1) over the following 10 days. Two column studies were conducted at 4 degrees C at a flow rate of 1 pore volume day(-1) using two slag sources (Stelco, Ontario; Tubarao, Brazil) combined with sand and pea gravel. In both column experiments, the effluent microsphere concentration approached input concentrations over time (reductions of 0.1-0.2 log C/C(0)), suggesting attachment processes for microspheres were negligible. Removal of PR772 virus was more pronounced both during the early stages of the experiments, but also after longer transport times (0.5-1.0 log C/C(0)). PR772 reduction appeared to be primarily as a result of virus inactivation in response to the elevated pH conditions generated by the BOF mixture (10.6-11.4). On-site sanitation systems using BOF media should be designed to maintain sufficient contact time between the BOF media and the wastewater to allow sufficient residence time of pathogens at elevated pH conditions. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Chinese Basic Pension Substitution Rate: A Monte Carlo Demonstration of the Individual Account Model

At the end of 2005, the State Council of China passed ”The Decision on adjusting the Individual Account of Basic Pension System”, which adjusted the individual account in the 1997 basic pension system. In this essay, we will analyze the adjustment above, and use Life Annuity Actuarial Theory to establish the basic pension substitution rate model. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to prove the rationality of the model. Some suggestions are put forward associated with the substitution rate according to the current policy.

Internally Displaced Persons Rights in Human Rights Perspective(Specifically Focused on Pakistani IDPs Example) : “Basic Human Rights of IDPs to Attain Equality in Dignity and Rights”

After the WWII, there was much concern to protect human rights situation all over the world. During the cold wars, huge displacement took place within different countries due to internal arms/ethnic conflicts. Millions of IDPs, who were uprooted by armed conflict or ethnic strife faced human rights violence. In 2002, there were estimated between 20-25 millions IDPs in the world (Phuong, p.1). Internally displacement is a worldwide problem and millions of the people displaced in Africa and Asia. These all Internal displacements of the people are only the result of the conflicts or the violations of the Human Rights but also sometimes it happened because of the natural disasters. “All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights..."(Streich, Article 1) This article works as the foundation of human rights which gives every human being an equal rights and opportunity to maintain his/her dignity. Human Rights issues related to human dignity must be taken very seriously and should not be ignored at any level; Many human rights issues are not always visible, issues such as: privacy, security, equality, protection of social and cultural values etc. In this paper I am going to apply theoretical approach of “all human being are equal in dignity and rights” to defend IDPs rights.

Animalism and Person as a Basic Sort

In this paper Animalism is analysed. It will be argued that Animalism is correct in claiming (i) that being of a certain sort of animal S is a fundamental individuative substance sortal concept (animal of the species Homo Sapiens), (ii) that this implies that Animalism is correct in claiming that persons such as us are, by necessity, human beings, (iii) that remaining the same animal is a necessary condition for our identity over time. Contrary to Animalism it will be argued that this does not imply that person should be understood as a phased sortal concept. It will be argued that Animalism rests upon a prior conception of person, and that this implies that person must be understood as a basic substance sortal concept through which we have to individuate ourselves and others. It is further argued that this, together with the insights of Animalism, implies that persons, by necessity, are beings of a biological nature.

On Arbitrary Selection Strategies for Basic Superposition

For first-order Horn clauses without equality, resolution is complete with an arbitrary selection of a single literal in each clause [dN 96]. Here we extend this result to the case of clauses with equality for superposition-based inference systems. Our result is a generalization of the result given in [BG 01]. We answer their question about the completeness of a superposition-based system for general clauses with an arbitrary selection strategy, provided there exists a refutation without applications of the factoring inference rule.

Regular Derivations in Basic Superposition-Based Calculi

We prove the completeness of the regular strategy of derivations for superposition-based calculi. The regular strategy was pioneered by Kanger in [Kan63], who proposed that all equality inferences take place before all other steps in the proof. We show that the strategy is complete with the elimination of tautologies. The implication of our result is the completeness of non-standard selection functions by which in non-relational clauses only equality literals (and all of them) are selected.

Public investment in basic education and economic growth

The main objective of this paper was to visualize the relation between government spending on basic education and the human capital accumulation process, observing the impacts of this spending on individual investments in higher education, and on economic growth. It is used an overlapping-generations model where the government tax the adult generation and spent it in basic education of the next generations. It was demonstrated that the magnitude of the marginal effect of government spending in basic education on growth crucially depends on public budget constrains. The paper explains why some countries with a lot of public investment in basic education growth at low rates. In that sense if a country has only a lot of public investment in basic education without investment in higher education it may growth at low rates because the taxation can cause distortions in the agents incentives to invest in higher education.

Introducing higher moments in the CAPM: some basic ideas

We show how to include in the CAPM moments of any order, extending the mean-variance or mean-variance-skewness versions available until now. Then, we present a simple way to modify the formulae, in order to avoid the appearance of utility parameters. The results can be easily applied to practical portfolio design, with econometric inference and testing based on generalised method of moments procedures. An empirical application to the Brazilian stock market is discussed.

Effects of the basic fibroblast growth factor and its anti-factor in the healing and collagen maturation of infected skin wound

PURPOSE: The infection is one of the main factors that affect the physiological evolution of the surgical wounds. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of fibroblast growth factor (FGFâ) and anti-FGFâ in the healing, synthesis and maturation of collagen when topically used on infected skin wounds of rats. METHODS: An experimental study was perfomed in 60 male Wistar rats. All animals were divided in two groups (A and B). Each group was divided in three subgroups A1, B1; A2, B2 and A3, B3. After anesthesia with pentobarbital, two open squared wounds (1cm2), 4cm distant to each other, were done in the dorsal skin of all the rats. In group A (n=30) the wounds were contaminated with multibacterial standard solution, and in group B(n=30) the wounds were maintained sterile. These wounds were named F1 (for inflammation analysis) and F2 (for collagen study). The open wounds of A1 and B1 rats were topically treated with saline solution, A2 and B2 were treated with FGFâ and subgroups A3 and B3 were treated with FGFâ and anti-FGFâ. The rats were observed until complete epitelization of F2 wounds for determination of healing time and the expression of types I and III collagen, using Picro Sirius Red staining. Inflammatory reaction in F1 wounds was studied using hematoxilineosin staining. The three variable was measured by the Image Pro-Plus Média Cybernetics software. The statistical analysis was performed by ANOVA and Tukey test, considering p<0.05 as significant. RESULTS: It was observed that infection retarded significantly (p<0.05) the time of wound scarring and the topical application of FCFb reverted the inhibition of healing caused by bacteria. The inflammatory reaction was greater in the subgroup B2 than in B1 and A3, and the difference was significant (p<0.05). It was observed greater expression of type I collagen in all the subgroups treated with FCFb, when compared with the untreated subgroups. Type III collagen was significantly decreased in wounds of B3 rats, comparing to the other subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The FCFb accelerated the healing of open infected wounds and contributed with maturation of collagen, enhancing the type I collagen density. The anti-FCFb antibody was able to attenuate the production of both type I and III collagen