Seismic anisotropy in the Morcles nappe shear zone: Implications for seismic imaging of crustal scale shear zones

Microstructures and textures of calcite mylonites from the Morcles nappe large-scale shear zone in southwestern Switzerland develop principally as a function of 1) extrinsic physical parameters including temperature, stress, strain, strain rate and 2) intrinsic parameters, such as mineral composition. We collected rock samples at a single location from this shear zone, on which laboratory ultrasonic velocities, texture and microstructures were investigated and quantified. The samples had different concentration of secondary mineral phases (< 5 up to 40 vol.%). Measured seismic P wave anisotropy ranges from 6.5% for polyphase mylonites (~ 40 vol.%) to 18.4% in mylonites with < 5 vol.% secondary phases. Texture strength of calcite is the main factor governing the seismic P wave anisotropy. Measured S wave splitting is generally highest in the foliation plane, but its origin is more difficult to explain solely by calcite texture. Additional texture measurements were made on calcite mylonites with low concentration of secondary phases (≤ 10 vol.%) along the metamorphic gradient of the shear zone (15 km distance). A systematic increase in texture strength is observed moving from the frontal part of the shear zone (anchimetamorphism; 280 °C) to the higher temperature, basal part (greenschist facies; 350–400 °C). Calculated P wave velocities become increasingly anisotropic towards the high-strain part of the nappe, from an average of 5.8% in the frontal part to 13.2% in the root of the basal part. Secondary phases raise an additional complexity, and may act either to increase or decrease seismic anisotropy of shear zone mylonites. In light of our findings we reinterpret the origin of some seismically reflective layers in the Grône–Zweisimmen line in southwestern Switzerland (PNR20 Swiss National Research Program). We hypothesize that reflections originate in part from the lateral variation in textural and microstructural arrangement of calcite mylonites in shear zones.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Changing climates, moving people: framing migration, displacement and planned relocation

Different policies are required for different types of human mobility related to climatic changes. Hence, it is necessary to distinguish between migration, displacement and planned relocation in climate policy and operations. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to help distinguish between human migration, displacement and planned relocation and present state-of-the-art thinking about some of the key issues related to addressing these in the context of climate policy.

Moving beyond transition outcomes: meta-analysis of remission rates in individuals at high clinical risk for psychosis

Recent evidence suggests that transition risks from initial clinical high risk (CHR) status to psychosis are decreasing. The role played by remission in this context is mostly unknown. The present study addresses this issue by means of a meta-analysis including eight relevant studies published up to January 2012 that reported remission rates from an initial CHR status. The primary effect size measure was the longitudinal proportion of remissions compared to non-remission in subjects with a baseline CHR state. Random effect models were employed to address the high heterogeneity across studies included. To assess the robustness of the results, we performed sensitivity analyses by sequentially removing each study and rerunning the analysis. Of 773 subjects who met initial CHR criteria, 73% did not convert to psychosis along a 2-year follow. Of these, about 46% fully remitted from the baseline attenuated psychotic symptoms, as evaluated on the psychometric measures usually employed by prodromal services. The corresponding clinical remission was estimated as high as 35% of the baseline CHR sample. The CHR state is associated with a significant proportion of remitting subjects that can be accounted by the effective treatments received, a lead time bias, a dilution effect, a comorbid effect of other psychiatric diagnoses.

Intensive care for extreme prematurity--moving beyond gestational age.

BACKGROUND: Decisions regarding whether to administer intensive care to extremely premature infants are often based on gestational age alone. However, other factors also affect the prognosis for these patients. METHODS: We prospectively studied a cohort of 4446 infants born at 22 to 25 weeks' gestation (determined on the basis of the best obstetrical estimate) in the Neonatal Research Network of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to relate risk factors assessable at or before birth to the likelihood of survival, survival without profound neurodevelopmental impairment, and survival without neurodevelopmental impairment at a corrected age of 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Among study infants, 3702 (83%) received intensive care in the form of mechanical ventilation. Among the 4192 study infants (94%) for whom outcomes were determined at 18 to 22 months, 49% died, 61% died or had profound impairment, and 73% died or had impairment. In multivariable analyses of infants who received intensive care, exposure to antenatal corticosteroids, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight (per each 100-g increment) were each associated with reductions in the risk of death and the risk of death or profound or any neurodevelopmental impairment; these reductions were similar to those associated with a 1-week increase in gestational age. At the same estimated likelihood of a favorable outcome, girls were less likely than boys to receive intensive care. The outcomes for infants who underwent ventilation were better predicted with the use of the above factors than with use of gestational age alone. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of a favorable outcome with intensive care can be better estimated by consideration of four factors in addition to gestational age: sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, whether single or multiple birth, and birth weight. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 [ClinicalTrials.gov] and NCT00009633 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Re-thinking resuscitation: leaving blood pressure cosmetics behind and moving forward to permissive hypotension and a tissue perfusion-based approach

Definitions of shock and resuscitation endpoints traditionally focus on blood pressures and cardiac output. This carries a high risk of overemphasizing systemic hemodynamics at the cost of tissue perfusion. In line with novel shock definitions and evidence of the lack of a correlation between macro- and microcirculation in shock, we recommend that macrocirculatory resuscitation endpoints, particularly arterial and central venous pressure as well as cardiac output, be reconsidered. In this viewpoint article, we propose a three-step approach of resuscitation endpoints in shock of all origins. This approach targets only a minimum individual and context-sensitive mean arterial blood pressure (for example, 45 to 50 mm Hg) to preserve heart and brain perfusion. Further resuscitation is exclusively guided by endpoints of tissue perfusion irrespectively of the presence of arterial hypotension ('permissive hypotension'). Finally, optimization of individual tissue (for example, renal) perfusion is targeted. Prospective clinical studies are necessary to confirm the postulated benefits of targeting these resuscitation endpoints.

Emergence of Klebsiella pneumoniae co-producing NDM-1, OXA-48, CTX-M-15, CMY-16, QnrA and ArmA in Switzerland

Extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates usually carry a single carbapenemase (e.g. KPC, NDM, OXA-48-like). Here we describe an XDR K. pneumoniae of sequence type 101 that was detected in the screening rectal swab of a patient transferred from the intensive care unit of a hospital located in Belgrade (Serbia) to Bern University Hospital (Switzerland). The isolate was resistant to all antibiotics with the exception of colistin [minimum inhibitory concentration] (MIC≤0.125μg/mL), tigecycline (MIC=0.5μg/mL) and fosfomycin (MIC=2μg/mL). The isolate co-possessed class B (NDM-1) and class D (OXA-48) carbapenemases, class A extended-spectrum β-lactamase (CTX-M-15), class C cephalosporinase (CMY-16), ArmA 16S rRNA methyltransferase, substitutions in GyrA and ParC, loss of OmpK35 porin, as well as other genes conferring resistance to quinolones (qnrA), tetracyclines [tet(A)], sulfonamides (sul1, sul2), trimethoprim (dfrA12, dfrA14), rifampicin (arr-1), chloramphenicol (cmlA1, floR) and streptomycin (aadA1). The patient was placed under contact isolation precautions preventing the spread of this nearly untreatable pathogen.

In vitro cell motility as a potential mesenchymal stem cell marker for multipotency.

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are expected to have a fundamental role in future cell-based therapies because of their high proliferative ability, multilineage potential, and immunomodulatory properties. Autologous transplantations have the "elephant in the room" problem of wide donor variability, reflected by variability in MSC quality and characteristics, leading to uncertain outcomes in the use of these cells. We propose life imaging as a tool to characterize populations of human MSCs. Bone marrow MSCs from various donors and in vitro passages were evaluated for their in vitro motility, and the distances were correlated to the adipogenic, chondrogenic, and osteogenic differentiation potentials and the levels of senescence and cell size. Using life-image measuring of track lengths of 70 cells per population for a period of 24 hours, we observed that slow-moving cells had the higher proportion of senescent cells compared with fast ones. Larger cells moved less than smaller ones, and spindle-shaped cells had an average speed. Both fast cells and slow cells were characterized by a low differentiation potential, and average-moving cells were more effective in undergoing all three lineage differentiations. Furthermore, heterogeneity in single cell motility within a population correlated with the average-moving cells, and fast- and slow-moving cells tended toward homogeneity (i.e., a monotonous moving pattern). In conclusion, in vitro cell motility might be a useful tool to quickly characterize and distinguish the MSC population's differentiation potential before additional use.