Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

The psychological experiences of adult heart transplant recipients : a systematic review and meta-summary of qualitative findings

Background Psychosocial factors and physical health are associated with increased psychological distress post-heart transplant. Integrating findings from qualitative studies could highlight mechanisms for how these factors contribute to psychological well-being, thus aiding the development of interventions. Objective To integrate qualitative findings regarding adult heart transplant recipients experiences, such as their emotions, perceptions and attitudes. Methods A systematic review and meta-summary were conducted. Data from seven studies were categorized into 16 abstracted findings. Results The most prominent finding across the studies related to recipients’ perceptions of the importance of social support. Other prominent findings related to factors that promoted psychological well-being, such as faith, optimism and sense of control. Conclusions Psychological well-being may be improved by enhancing perceived control over health and daily life, promoting an optimistic outlook by facilitating access to social support from other heart transplant recipients and ensuring post-transplant recipient-caregiver partnerships adequately support the transition back to independence.

The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

We study the difference in the result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, personality traits, a decision in a dilemma situation, and physiological states measured by heart rate variability (HRV). Our results indicate that differences between the methods can partly be explained by gender, but not by personality traits. Furthermore, HRV is linked to risktaking in the experiment for at least one of the methods, indicating that more stressed individuals display more risk aversion. Finally, we and that risk attitudes are not predictive of the ability to decide in a dilemma, but personality traits are. Surprisingly, there is also no apparent relationship between the physiological state during the dilemma situation and the ability to make a decision.

A systematic review of baseline psychosocial characterisation in dietary randomised controlled trials for weight loss

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent of baseline psychosocial characterisation of subjects in published dietary randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for weight loss. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Systematic review of adequately sized (nX10) RCTs comprising X1 diet-alone arm for weight loss were included for this systematic review. More specifically, trials included overweight (body mass index 425 kg/m2) adults, were of duration X8 weeks and had body weight as the primary outcome. Exclusion criteria included specific psychological intervention (for example, Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT)), use of web-based tools, use of supplements, liquid diets, replacement meals and very-low calorie diets. Physical activity intervention was restricted to general exercise only (not supervised or prescribed, for example, VO2 maximum level). RESULTS: Of 176 weight-loss RCTs published during 2008–2010, 15 met selection criteria and were assessed for reported psychological characterisation of subjects. All studies reported standard characterisation of clinical and biochemical characteristics of subjects. Eleven studies reported no psychological attributes of subjects (three of these did exclude those taking psychoactive medication). Three studies collected data on particular aspects of psychology related to specific research objectives (figure scale rating, satiety and quality-of-life). Only one study provided a comprehensive background on psychological attributes of subjects. CONCLUSION: Better characterisation in behaviour-change interventions will reduce potential confounding and enhance generalisability of such studies.

Baseline study of alcohol dependence among general drivers and drunk driving offenders in Guangzhou, China

This study aimed to investigate drink driving in a sample of general drivers and convicted drunk driving offenders in Guangzhou, China. The study also aimed to explore some potential factors that impact on alcohol-related driving behaviour. Samples of 406 general drivers and 101 drunk driving offenders were recruited between May and October 2012. A survey was used to collect information about demographic characteristics, knowledge, attitudes and practices related to drink driving. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used to assess possible drinking problems. The average age reported for starting to drink alcohol for both groups of participants was around 19 years old. The mean AUDIT score of general drivers was 7.4 (SD = 5.4) representing a low level of alcohol problems, and for convicted drunk driving offenders was 11.1 (SD = 5.9) representing a medium level of alcohol problems (significant difference between means, t = 5.75, p < 0.001). AUDIT scores indicated that a substantial proportion (65%) of the offenders had medium to high levels of alcohol use disorders, compared with 38.5% among general drivers. Offenders who knew the drunk driving legal limit had a lower AUDIT score (M = 9.8, SD = 5.16) than those who did not know it (M = 12.2, SD = 6.257, t = -1.987. p = 0.05). In addition, offenders who were novice drivers (licensed less than 2 years) had a higher AUDIT score (M = 16.4, SD = 7.6) than the other three driver experience categories used.

Evaluating ITS interventions at railway level crossings using a driving simulator

This paper assesses Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to identify safety systems that are most likely to reduce driver errors at railway crossings. ITS technologies have been integrated in order to develop improved evaluation tools to reduce crashes at railway crossings. Although emerging technologies, knowledge, innovative interventions have been introduced to change driver behaviour, there is a lack of research on the impact of integrating ITS technologies and transportation simulation on drivers. The outcomes of ITS technologies for complementing traditional signage were compared with those of current safety systems (passive and active) at railway crossings. Three ITS technologies are compared with current treatments, in terms of compliance rate and vehicle speed profiles. It is found that ITS technologies improve compliance rate by 17~30% and also encourage drivers to slow down earlier compared to current passive and active crossings when there is a train approaching the railway crossings.

Open and networked initiatives and the digital transformation of academic publishing in China

Many aspects of China's academic publishing system differ from the systems found in liberal market based economies of the United States, Western Europe and Australia. A high level of government intervention in both the publishing industry and academia and the challenges associated with attempting to make a transition from a centrally controlled towards a more market based publishing industry are two notable differences; however, as in other countries, academic communities and publishers are being transformed by digital technologies. This research explores the complex yet dynamic digital transformation of academic publishing in China, with a specific focus of the open and networked initiatives inspired by Web 2.0 and social media. The thesis draws on two case studies: Science Paper Online, a government-operated online preprint platform and open access mandate; and New Science, a social reference management website operated by a group of young PhD students. Its analysis of the innovations, business models, operating strategies, influences, and difficulties faced by these two initiatives highlights important characteristics and trends in digital publishing experiments in China. The central argument of this thesis is that the open and collaborative possibilities of Web 2.0 inspired initiatives are emerging outside the established journal and monograph publishing system in China, introducing innovative and somewhat disruptive approaches to the certification, communication and commercial exploitation of knowledge. Moreover, emerging publishing models are enabling and encouraging a new system of practising and communicating science in China, putting into practice some elements of the Open Science ethos. There is evidence of both disruptive change to old publishing structures and the adaptive modification of emergent replacements in the Chinese practice. As such, the transformation from traditional to digital and interactive modes of publishing, involves both competition and convergence between new and old publishers, as well as dynamics of co-evolution involving new technologies, business models, social norms, and government reform agendas. One key concern driving this work is whether there are new opportunities and new models for academic publishing in the Web 2.0 age and social media environment, which might allow the basic functions of communication and certification to be achieved more effectively. This thesis enriches existing knowledge of open and networked transformations of scholarly publishing by adding a Chinese story. Although the development of open and networked publishing platforms in China remains in its infancy, the lessons provided by this research are relevant to practitioners and stakeholders interested in understanding the transformative dynamics of networked technologies for publishing and advocating open access in practice, not only in China, but also internationally.

Moderate sleep restriction in treated older male OSA participants: Greater impairment during monotonous driving compared with controls

Objectives To examine the effects on monotonous driving of normal sleep versus one night of sleep restriction in continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treated obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients compared with age matched healthy controls. Methods Nineteen CPAP treated compliant male OSA patients (OSA-treated patients (OPs)), aged 50–75 years, and 20 healthy age-matched controls underwent both a normal night’s sleep and sleep restriction to 5 h (OPs remained on CPAP) in a counterbalanced design. All participants completed a 2 h afternoon monotonous drive in a realistic car simulator. Driving was monitored for sleepiness-related minor and major lane deviations, with ‘safe’ driving time being total time driven prior to first major lane deviation. EEGs were recorded continuously, and subjective sleepiness ratings were taken at regular intervals throughout the drive. Results After a normal night’s sleep, OPs and controls did not differ in terms of driving performance or in their ability to assess the levels of their own sleepiness, with both groups driving ‘safely’ for approximately 90 min. However, after sleep restriction, OPs had a significantly shorter (65 min) safe driving time and had to apply more compensatory effort to maintain their alertness compared with controls. They also underestimated the enhanced sleepiness. Nevertheless, apart from this caveat, there were generally close associations between subjective sleepiness, likelihood of a major lane deviation and EEG changes indicative of sleepiness. Conclusions With a normal night’s sleep, effectively treated older men with OSA drive as safely as healthy men of the same age. However, after restricted sleep, driving impairment is worse than that of controls. This suggests that, although successful CPAP treatment can alleviate potential detrimental effects of OSA on monotonous driving following normal sleep, these patients remain more vulnerable to sleep restriction.

One night’s CPAP withdrawal in otherwise compliant OSA patients: marked driving impairment but good awareness of increased sleepiness

Purpose Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients effectively treated by and compliant with continuous positive air pressure (CPAP) occasionally miss a night’s treatment. The purpose of this study was to use a real car interactive driving simulator to assess the effects of such an occurrence on the next day’s driving, including the extent to which these drivers are aware of increased sleepiness. Methods Eleven long-term compliant CPAP-treated 50–75-year-old male OSA participants completed a 2-h afternoon, simulated, realistic monotonous drive in an instrumented car, twice, following one night: (1) normal sleep with CPAP and (2) nil CPAP. Drifting out of road lane (‘incidents’), subjective sleepiness every 200 s and continuous electroencephalogram (EEG) activities indicative of sleepiness and compensatory effort were monitored. Results Withdrawal of CPAP markedly increased sleep disturbance and led to significantly more incidents, a shorter ‘safe’ driving duration, increased alpha and theta EEG power and greater subjective sleepiness. However, increased EEG beta activity indicated that more compensatory effort was being applied. Importantly, under both conditions, there was a highly significant correlation between subjective and EEG measures of sleepiness, to the extent that participants were well aware of the effects of nil CPAP. Conclusions Patients should be aware that compliance with treatment every night is crucial for safe driving.

Assessment of police subjective workload and preference for using a voice-based interface during simulated driving

Police in-vehicle systems include a visual output mobile data terminal (MDT) with manual input via touch screen and keyboard. This study investigated the potential for voice-based input and output modalities for reducing subjective workload of police officers while driving. Nineteen experienced drivers of police vehicles (one female) from New South Wales (NSW) Police completed four simulated urban drives. Three drives included a concurrent secondary task: an imitation licence number search using an emulated MDT. Three different interface output-input modalities were examined: Visual-Manual, Visual-Voice, and Audio-Voice. Following each drive, participants rated their subjective workload using the NASA - Raw Task Load Index and completed questions on acceptability. A questionnaire on interface preferences was completed by participants at the end of their session. Engaging in secondary tasks while driving significantly increased subjective workload. The Visual-Manual interface resulted in higher time demand than either of the voice-based interfaces and greater physical demand than the Audio-Voice interface. The Visual-Voice and Audio-Voice interfaces were rated easier to use and more useful than the Visual-Manual interface, although not significantly different from each other. Findings largely echoed those deriving from the analysis of the objective driving performance data. It is acknowledged that under standard procedures, officers should not drive while performing tasks concurrently with certain invehicle policing systems; however, in practice this sometimes occurs. Taking action now to develop voice-based technology for police in-vehicle systems has potential to realise visions for potentially safer and more efficient vehicle-based police work.

On-road driving studies to understand why drivers behave as they do at regional rail level crossings

Improving safety at rail level crossings is an important part of both road and rail safety strategies. While low in number, crashes between vehicles and trains at level crossings are catastrophic events typically involving multiple fatalities and serious injuries. Advances in driving assessment methods, such as the provision of on-road instrumented test vehicles with eye and head tracking, provide researchers with the opportunity to further understand driver behaviour at such crossings in ways not previously possible. This paper describes a study conducted to further understand the factors that shape driver behaviour at rail level crossings using instrumented vehicles. Twenty-two participants drove an On-Road Test Vehicle (ORTeV) on a predefined route in regional Victoria with a mix of both active (flashing lights with/without boom barriers) and passively controlled (stop, give way) crossings. Data collected included driving performance data, head checks, and interview data to capture driver strategies. The data from an integrated suite of methods demonstrated clearly how behaviour differs at active and passive level crossings, particularly for inexperienced drivers. For example, the head check data clearly show the reliance and expectancies of inexperienced drivers for active warnings even when approaching passively controlled crossings. These studies provide very novel and unique insights into how level crossing design and warnings shape driver behaviour.

Princess Alexandra Hospital model of comprehensive geriatric assessment of cancer patients : methodological and logistical aspects

There is increasing momentum in cancer care to implement a two stage assessment process that accurately determines the ability of older patients to cope with, and benefit from, chemotherapy. The two-step approach aims to ensure that patients clearly fit for chemotherapy can be accurately identified and referred for treatment without undergoing a time- and resource-intensive comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Ideally, this process removes the uncertainty of how to classify and then appropriately treat the older cancer patient. After trialling a two-stage screen and CGA process in the Division of Cancer Services at Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH) in 2011-2012, we implemented a model of oncogeriatric care based on our findings. In this paper, we explore the methodological and practical aspects of implementing the PAH model and outline further work needed to refine the process in our treatment context.

Fuel consumption and gas emissions of an automatic transmission vehicle following simple eco-driving instructions on urban roads

Following eco-driving instructions can reduce fuel consumption between 5 to 20% on urban roads with manual cars. The majority of Australian cars have an automatic transmission gear-box. It is therefore of interest to verify whether current eco-driving instructions are e cient for such vehicles. In this pilot study, participants (N=13) drove an instrumented vehicle (Toyota Camry 2007) with an automatic transmission. Fuel consumption of the participants was compared before and after they received simple eco-driving instructions. Participants drove the same vehicle on the same urban route under similar tra c conditions. We found that participants drove at similar speeds during their baseline and eco-friendly drives, and reduced the level of their accelerations and decelerations during eco-driving. Fuel consumption decreased for the complete drive by 7%, but not on the motorway and inclined sections of the study. Gas emissions were estimated with the VT-micro model, and emissions of the studied pollutants (CO2, CO, NOX and HC) were reduced, but no di erence was observed for CO2 on the motorway and inclined sections. The di erence for the complete lap is 3% for CO2. We have found evidence showing that simple eco-driving instructions are e cient in the case of automatic transmission in an urban environment, but towards the lowest values of the spectrum of fuel consumption reduction from the di erent eco-driving studies.

A cross-discipline and collaborative approach to identifying the predictors of environmentally friendly and health protective behaviour

Background. As a society, our interaction with the environment is having a negative impact on human health. For example, an increase in car use for short trips, over walking or cycling, has contributed to an increase in obesity, diabetes and poor heart health and also contributes to pollution, which is associated with asthma and other respiratory diseases. In order to change the nature of that interaction, to be more positive and healthy, it is recommended that individuals adopt a range of environmentally friendly behaviours (such as walking for transport and reducing the use of plastics). Effective interventions aimed at increasing such behaviours will need to be evidence based and there is a need for the rapid communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. Further, a number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being. Therefore, the objective of this project is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to reveal psychological mechanisms driving environmentally friendly behaviour. This objective is further divided into three broad aims, the first of which is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to research. The second aim is to explore and identify the salient beliefs which most strongly predict environmentally friendly behaviour. The third aim is to build an augmented model to explain environmentally friendly behaviour. The thesis builds on the understanding that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate the rapid transfer of knowledge to inform behaviour change interventions. Methods. The application of this approach involved two surveys which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in collaboration with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered, Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) based, mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Region (Queensland, Australia). This survey explored specific beliefs including attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as environmental altruism and green identity, in relation to walking for transport and switching off lights when not in use. Following analysis of the mail survey data and based on feedback from participants and key stakeholders, an internet survey was employed (N=451) to explore two additional behaviours, switching off appliances at the wall when not in use, and shopping with reusable bags. This work is presented as a series of interrelated publications which address each of the research aims. Presentation of Findings. Chapter five of this thesis consists of a published paper which addresses the first aim of the research and outlines the collaborative and multidisciplinary approach employed in the mail survey. The paper argued that forging alliances with those who are in a position to immediately utilise the findings of research has the potential to improve the quality and timely communication of research. Illustrating this timely communication, Chapter six comprises a report presented to Moreton Bay Regional Council (MBRC). This report addresses aim's one and two. The report contains a summary of participation in a range of environmentally friendly behaviours and identifies the beliefs which most strongly predicted walking for transport and switching off lights (from the mail survey). These salient beliefs were then recommended as targets for interventions and included: participants believing that they might save money; that their neighbours also switch off lights; that it would be inconvenient to walk for transport and that their closest friend also walks for transport. Chapter seven also addresses the second aim and presents a published conference paper in which the salient beliefs predicting the four specified behaviours (from both surveys) are identified and potential applications for intervention are discussed. Again, a range of TPB based beliefs, including descriptive normative beliefs, were predictive of environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper was also provided to MBRC, along with recommendations for applying the findings. For example, as descriptive normative beliefs were consistently correlated with environmentally friendly behaviour, local councils could engage in marketing and interventions (workshops, letter box drops, internet promotions) which encourage parents and friends to model, rather than simply encourage, environmentally friendly behaviour. The final two papers, presented in Chapters eight and nine, addresses the third aim of the project. These papers each present two behaviours together to inform a TPB based theoretical model with which to predict environmentally friendly behaviour. A generalised model is presented, which is found to predict the four specific behaviours under investigation. The role of demographics was explored across each of the behaviour specific models. It was found that some behaviour's differ by age, gender, income or education. In particular, adjusted models predicted more of the variance in walking for transport amongst younger participants and females. Adjusted models predicted more variance in switching off lights amongst those with a bachelor degree or higher and predicted more variance in switching off appliances amongst those on a higher income. Adjusted models predicted more variance in shopping with reusable bags for males, people 40 years or older, those on a higher income and those with a bachelor degree or higher. However, model structure and general predictability was relatively consistent overall. The models provide a general theoretical framework from which to better understand the motives and predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Conclusion. This research has provided an example of the benefits of a collaborative interdisciplinary approach. It has identified a number of salient beliefs which can be targeted for social marketing campaigns and educational initiatives; and these findings, along with recommendations, have been passed on to a local council to be used as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Finally, the research has informed a practical model, as well as behaviour specific models, for predicting sustainable living behaviours. Such models can highlight important core constructs from which targeted interventions can be designed. Therefore, this research represents an important step in undertaking collaborative approaches to improving population health through human-environment interactions.