Data-driven topo-climatic mapping with machine learning methods

Automatic environmental monitoring networks enforced by wireless communication technologies provide large and ever increasing volumes of data nowadays. The use of this information in natural hazard research is an important issue. Particularly useful for risk assessment and decision making are the spatial maps of hazard-related parameters produced from point observations and available auxiliary information. The purpose of this article is to present and explore the appropriate tools to process large amounts of available data and produce predictions at fine spatial scales. These are the algorithms of machine learning, which are aimed at non-parametric robust modelling of non-linear dependencies from empirical data. The computational efficiency of the data-driven methods allows producing the prediction maps in real time which makes them superior to physical models for the operational use in risk assessment and mitigation. Particularly, this situation encounters in spatial prediction of climatic variables (topo-climatic mapping). In complex topographies of the mountainous regions, the meteorological processes are highly influenced by the relief. The article shows how these relations, possibly regionalized and non-linear, can be modelled from data using the information from digital elevation models. The particular illustration of the developed methodology concerns the mapping of temperatures (including the situations of Föhn and temperature inversion) given the measurements taken from the Swiss meteorological monitoring network. The range of the methods used in the study includes data-driven feature selection, support vector algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Evaluation of clinician-operated sonography and fine-needle aspiration in the assessment of salivary gland tumours.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the combination of ultrasound (US) + fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in the assessment of salivary gland tumours in the hands of the otolaryngologist. DESIGN: A retrospective review of case notes was performed. SETTING: Two university teaching hospitals in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and three patients with a total of 106 focal masses of the salivary glands were included. Clinician-operated US + FNA were the first line of investigation for these lesions. All patients underwent surgical excision of the lesion, which allowed for confirmation of diagnosis by histopathology in 104 lesions and by laboratory testing in two lesions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary--diagnostic accuracy in identifying true salivary gland neoplasms and detecting malignancy. Secondary--predicting an approximate and specific diagnosis in these tumours. RESULTS: The combination of US + FNA achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 99% in identifying and differentiating true salivary gland neoplasms from tumour-like lesions. In detecting malignancy, this combination permitted an accuracy of 98%. An approximate diagnosis was possible in 89%, and a specific diagnosis in 69% of our patients. CONCLUSIONS: Due to economic factors and a high diagnostic accuracy, the combination of US + FNA represents the investigation method of choice for most salivary gland tumours. We suggest that the otolaryngologist be employed in carrying out these procedures, as is already the rule in other medical specialties, while computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging should be reserved to those few lesions, which cannot be delineated completely by sonography.

Systematic assessment of factors influencing preferences of crohn's disease patients in selecting an anti-tumor necrosis factor agent (CHOOSE TNF TRIAL).

BACKGROUND: Infliximab (IFX), adalimumab (ADA), and certolizumab pegol (CZP) have similar efficacy in induction and maintenance of clinical remission in Crohn's disease (CD). Given the comparable nature of these drugs, patient preferences may influence the choice of the product. We aimed to identify factors that may contribute to CD patients' decision in selecting one anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) agent over the others. METHODS: A prospective survey was performed among anti-TNF-naïve CD patients. Prior to completion of a questionnaire, patients were provided with a written description of the three anti-TNF agents, focusing on indications, mode of administration, side effects, and scientific evidence of efficacy and safety for each drug. RESULTS: One hundred patients (47 females, mean age 45 ± 16 years, range 19-81) with an ileal, colonic, or ileocolonic (33%, 40%, and 27%, respectively) disease location completed the questionnaire. Based on the information provided, 36% of patients preferred ADA, 28% CZP, and 25% IFX, whereas 11% were undecided. The patients' decision in selecting a specific anti-TNF drug was influenced by the following factors: ease of use (69%), time required for therapy (34%), time interval between application of the drug (31%), scientific evidence for efficacy (19%), and fear of syringes (10%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients preferred anti-TNF medications that were administered by subcutaneous injection rather than by intravenous infusion. Ease of use and time required for therapy were two major factors influencing the patients' selection of a specific anti-TNF drug. Patients' individual preferences should be taken into account when prescribing anti-TNF drugs. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2012).

Assessment of the carotid artery by MRI at 3T: a study on reproducibility

PURPOSE: To examine the reproducibility of carotid artery dimension measurements using 3T MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten healthy volunteers underwent three scans on two occasions for assessment of total vessel wall area (TVWA), total luminal area (TLA), and minimum (MinT) and maximum (MaxT) vessel wall thickness. A double inversion-recovery (IR) fast gradient-echo (FGRE) sequence was used on a commercial 3T system. During the first visit the subjects were scanned twice. The third scan was performed at least four days later. One observer traced all scans, and a second observer retraced the first scan series. RESULTS: For TVWA an interclass correlation (ICC) of 0.994 was calculated with all three scans taken into account. The interobserver ICC was 0.984. The agreement between the scans for TLA showed an ICC of 0.982 with an interobserver ICC of 0.998. For MinT and MaxT an ICC of 0.843 and 0.935 were calculated, with interobserver ICCs of 0.860 and 0.726, respectively. CONCLUSION: With the use of a commercial 3T MR system, TVWA, TLA, and wall thickness measurements of the carotid artery can be assessed with good reproducibility.

An Assessment of Traffic Safety in Urban Deer Herd Management Zones in Iowa, 2010

Many states are striving to keep their deer population to a sustainable and controllable level while maximizing public safety. In Iowa, measures to control the deer population include annual deer hunts and special deer herd management plans in urban areas. While these plans may reduce the deer population, traffic safety in these areas has not been fully assessed. Using deer population data from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and data on deer-vehicle crashes and deer carcass removals from the Iowa Department of Transportation, the authors examined the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions, deer density, and land use in three urban areas in Iowa that have deer management plans in place (Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Iowa City) over the period 2002 to 2007. First, a comparison of deer-vehicle crash counts and deer carcass removal counts was conducted at the county level. Further, the authors estimated econometric models to investigate the factors that influence the frequency and severity of deer-vehicle crashes in these zones. Overall, the number of deer carcasses removed on the primary roads in these counties was greater than the number of reported deervehicle crashes on those roads. These differences can be attributed to a number of reasons, including variability in data reporting and data collection practices. In addition, high rates of underreporting of crashes were found on major routes that carry high volumes of traffic. This study also showed that multiple factors affect deer-vehicle crashes and corresponding injury outcomes in urban management zones. The identified roadway and non-roadway factors could be useful for identifying locations on the transportation system that significantly impact deer species and safety and for determining appropriate countermeasures for mitigation. Efforts to reduce deer density adjacent to roads and developed land and to provide wider shoulders on undivided roads are recommended. Improving the consistency and accuracy of deer carcass and deer-vehicle collision data collection methods and practices is also desirable.

Optimization of Snow Drifting Mitigation and Control Methods for Iowa Conditions Part II, TR-626, 2015

Blowing and drifting of snow is a major concern for transportation efficiency and road safety in regions where their development is common. One common way to mitigate snow drift on roadways is to install plastic snow fences. Correct design of snow fences is critical for road safety and maintaining the roads open during winter in the US Midwest and other states affected by large snow events during the winter season and to maintain costs related to accumulation of snow on the roads and repair of roads to minimum levels. Of critical importance for road safety is the protection against snow drifting in regions with narrow rights of way, where standard fences cannot be deployed at the recommended distance from the road. Designing snow fences requires sound engineering judgment and a thorough evaluation of the potential for snow blowing and drifting at the construction site. The evaluation includes site-specific design parameters typically obtained with semi-empirical relations characterizing the local transport conditions. Among the critical parameters involved in fence design and assessment of their post-construction efficiency is the quantification of the snow accumulation at fence sites. The present study proposes a joint experimental and numerical approach to monitor snow deposits around snow fences, quantitatively estimate snow deposits in the field, asses the efficiency and improve the design of snow fences. Snow deposit profiles were mapped using GPS based real-time kinematic surveys (RTK) conducted at the monitored field site during and after snow storms. The monitored site allowed testing different snow fence designs under close to identical conditions over four winter seasons. The study also discusses the detailed monitoring system and analysis of weather forecast and meteorological conditions at the monitored sites. A main goal of the present study was to assess the performance of lightweight plastic snow fences with a lower porosity than the typical 50% porosity used in standard designs of such fences. The field data collected during the first winter was used to identify the best design for snow fences with a porosity of 50%. Flow fields obtained from numerical simulations showed that the fence design that worked the best during the first winter induced the formation of an elongated area of small velocity magnitude close to the ground. This information was used to identify other candidates for optimum design of fences with a lower porosity. Two of the designs with a fence porosity of 30% that were found to perform well based on results of numerical simulations were tested in the field during the second winter along with the best performing design for fences with a porosity of 50%. Field data showed that the length of the snow deposit away from the fence was reduced by about 30% for the two proposed lower-porosity (30%) fence designs compared to the best design identified for fences with a porosity of 50%. Moreover, one of the lower-porosity designs tested in the field showed no significant snow deposition within the bottom gap region beneath the fence. Thus, a major outcome of this study is to recommend using plastic snow fences with a porosity of 30%. It is expected that this lower-porosity design will continue to work well for even more severe snow events or for successive snow events occurring during the same winter. The approach advocated in the present study allowed making general recommendations for optimizing the design of lower-porosity plastic snow fences. This approach can be extended to improve the design of other types of snow fences. Some preliminary work for living snow fences is also discussed. Another major contribution of this study is to propose, develop protocols and test a novel technique based on close range photogrammetry (CRP) to quantify the snow deposits trapped snow fences. As image data can be acquired continuously, the time evolution of the volume of snow retained by a snow fence during a storm or during a whole winter season can, in principle, be obtained. Moreover, CRP is a non-intrusive method that eliminates the need to perform man-made measurements during the storms, which are difficult and sometimes dangerous to perform. Presently, there is lots of empiricism in the design of snow fences due to lack of data on fence storage capacity on how snow deposits change with the fence design and snow storm characteristics and in the estimation of the main parameters used by the state DOTs to design snow fences at a given site. The availability of such information from CRP measurements should provide critical data for the evaluation of the performance of a certain snow fence design that is tested by the IDOT. As part of the present study, the novel CRP method is tested at several sites. The present study also discusses some attempts and preliminary work to determine the snow relocation coefficient which is one of the main variables that has to be estimated by IDOT engineers when using the standard snow fence design software (Snow Drift Profiler, Tabler, 2006). Our analysis showed that standard empirical formulas did not produce reasonable values when applied at the Iowa test sites monitored as part of the present study and that simple methods to estimate this variable are not reliable. The present study makes recommendations for the development of a new methodology based on Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry that can directly measure the snow drift fluxes and the amount of snow relocated by the fence.

Assessment of Nondestructive Testing Technologies for Quality Control/Quality Assurance of Asphalt Mixtures, TR-653, 2015

Asphalt pavements suffer various failures due to insufficient quality within their design lives. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) has been proposed to improve pavement quality through quantitative performance prediction. Evaluation of the actual performance (quality) of pavements requires in situ nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques that can accurately measure the most critical, objective, and sensitive properties of pavement systems. The purpose of this study is to assess existing as well as promising new NDT technologies for quality control/quality assurance (QC/QA) of asphalt mixtures. Specifically, this study examined field measurements of density via the PaveTracker electromagnetic gage, shear-wave velocity via surface-wave testing methods, and dynamic stiffness via the Humboldt GeoGauge for five representative paving projects covering a range of mixes and traffic loads. The in situ tests were compared against laboratory measurements of core density and dynamic modulus. The in situ PaveTracker density had a low correlation with laboratory density and was not sensitive to variations in temperature or asphalt mix type. The in situ shear-wave velocity measured by surface-wave methods was most sensitive to variations in temperature and asphalt mix type. The in situ density and in situ shear-wave velocity were combined to calculate an in situ dynamic modulus, which is a performance-based quality measurement. The in situ GeoGauge stiffness measured on hot asphalt mixtures several hours after paving had a high correlation with the in situ dynamic modulus and the laboratory density, whereas the stiffness measurement of asphalt mixtures cooled with dry ice or at ambient temperature one or more days after paving had a very low correlation with the other measurements. To transform the in situ moduli from surface-wave testing into quantitative quality measurements, a QC/QA procedure was developed to first correct the in situ moduli measured at different field temperatures to the moduli at a common reference temperature based on master curves from laboratory dynamic modulus tests. The corrected in situ moduli can then be compared against the design moduli for an assessment of the actual pavement performance. A preliminary study of microelectromechanical systems- (MEMS)-based sensors for QC/QA and health monitoring of asphalt pavements was also performed.

Randomized trial of a computerized coronary heart disease risk assessment tool in HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) can lead to important metabolic changes and increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Computerized clinical decision support systems have been advocated to improve the management of patients at risk for CHD but it is unclear whether such systems reduce patients' risk for CHD. METHODS: We conducted a cluster trial within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) of HIV-infected patients, aged 18 years or older, not pregnant and receiving cART for >3 months. We randomized 165 physicians to either guidelines for CHD risk factor management alone or guidelines plus CHD risk profiles. Risk profiles included the Framingham risk score, CHD drug prescriptions and CHD events based on biannual assessments, and were continuously updated by the SHCS data centre and integrated into patient charts by study nurses. Outcome measures were total cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and Framingham risk score. RESULTS: A total of 3,266 patients (80% of those eligible) had a final assessment of the primary outcome at least 12 months after the start of the trial. Mean (95% confidence interval) patient differences where physicians received CHD risk profiles and guidelines, rather than guidelines alone, were total cholesterol -0.02 mmol/l (-0.09-0.06), systolic blood pressure -0.4 mmHg (-1.6-0.8), diastolic blood pressure -0.4 mmHg (-1.5-0.7) and Framingham 10-year risk score -0.2% (-0.5-0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Systemic computerized routine provision of CHD risk profiles in addition to guidelines does not significantly improve risk factors for CHD in patients on cART.

Assessment of quadriceps muscle inactivation with a new electrical stimulation paradigm.

INTRODUCTION: In this study we evaluated the validity of garment-based quadriceps stimulation (GQS) for assessment of muscle inactivation in comparison with femoral nerve stimulation (FNS). METHODS: Inactivation estimates (superimposed doublet torque), self-reported discomfort, and twitch and doublet contractile properties were compared between GQS and FNS in 15 healthy subjects. RESULTS: Superimposed doublet torque was significantly lower for GQS than for FNS at 20% and 40% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) (P < 0.01), but not at 60%, 80%, and 100% MVC. Discomfort scores were systematically lower for GQS than for FNS (P < 0.05). Resting twitch and doublet peak torque were lower for GQS, and time to peak torque was shorter for GQS than for FNS (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: GQS can be used with confidence for straightforward evaluation of quadriceps muscle inactivation, whereas its validity for assessment of contractile properties remains to be determined. Muscle Nerve 51: 117-124, 2015.

Enhanced-reality video fluorescence: a real-time assessment of intestinal viability.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to evaluate a fluorescence-based enhanced-reality system to assess intestinal viability in a laparoscopic mesenteric ischemia model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A small bowel loop was exposed, and 3 to 4 mesenteric vessels were clipped in 6 pigs. Indocyanine green (ICG) was administered intravenously 15 minutes later. The bowel was illuminated with an incoherent light source laparoscope (D-light-P, KarlStorz). The ICG fluorescence signal was analyzed with Ad Hoc imaging software (VR-RENDER), which provides a digital perfusion cartography that was superimposed to the intraoperative laparoscopic image [augmented reality (AR) synthesis]. Five regions of interest (ROIs) were marked under AR guidance (1, 2a-2b, 3a-3b corresponding to the ischemic, marginal, and vascularized zones, respectively). One hour later, capillary blood samples were obtained by puncturing the bowel serosa at the identified ROIs and lactates were measured using the EDGE analyzer. A surgical biopsy of each intestinal ROI was sent for mitochondrial respiratory rate assessment and for metabolites quantification. RESULTS: Mean capillary lactate levels were 3.98 (SD = 1.91) versus 1.05 (SD = 0.46) versus 0.74 (SD = 0.34) mmol/L at ROI 1 versus 2a-2b (P = 0.0001) versus 3a-3b (P = 0.0001), respectively. Mean maximal mitochondrial respiratory rate was 104.4 (±21.58) pmolO2/second/mg at the ROI 1 versus 191.1 ± 14.48 (2b, P = 0.03) versus 180.4 ± 16.71 (3a, P = 0.02) versus 199.2 ± 25.21 (3b, P = 0.02). Alanine, choline, ethanolamine, glucose, lactate, myoinositol, phosphocholine, sylloinositol, and valine showed statistically significant different concentrations between ischemic and nonischemic segments. CONCLUSIONS: Fluorescence-based AR may effectively detect the boundary between the ischemic and the vascularized zones in this experimental model.

Evaluation des technologies médicales : travaux présentés pendant le Congrès TEKMED 87 = Assessment of medical technologies : the papers presented during the TEKMED 87 Congress

[Table des matières] Technology assessment in health care in the United States: an historical review / S. Perry. - The aims and methods of technology assessment / JH Glasser. - Evaluation des technologies de la santé / A. Griffiths. - Les données nécessaires pour l'évaluation des technologies médicales / R. Chrzanowski, F. Gutzwiller, F. Paccaud. - Economic issues in technology assessment/DR Lairson, JM Swint. - Two decades of experience in technology assessment: evaluating the safety, performance, and cost effectiveness of medical equipment / JJ Nobel. - Demography and technology assessment / H. Hansluwka. - Méthodes expérimentale et non expérimentale pour l'évaluation des innovations technologiques / R. Chrzanowski, F. Paccaud. - Skull radiography in head trauma: a successful case of technology assessment / NT Racoveanu. - Complications associées à l'anesthésie: une étude prospective en France / L. Tiret et al. - Impact de l'information publique sur les taux opératoires: le cas de l'hystérectomie / G. Domenighetti, P. Luraschi, A. Casabianca. - The clinical effectiveness of acupuncture for the relief of chronic pain / MS Patel, F. Gutzwiller, F. Paccaud, A. Marazzi. - Soins à domicile et hébergement à long terme: à la recherche d'un développement optimum / G. Tinturier. - Economic evaluation of six scenarios for the treatment of stones in the kidney and ureter by surgery or ESWL / MS Patel et al. - Technology assessment and medical practice / F. Gutzwiller. - Technology assessment and health policy / SJ Reiser. - Global programme on appropriate technology for health, its role and place within WHO / K. Staehr Johansen.

The assessment of reproductive success of queens in ants and other social insects

Recently considerable research has focused on the causes of evolution of multiple-queen (polygynous) colonies. In order to better understand the factors which may have led to these polygynous associations it is vital to compare the reproductive success of queens in monogynous (one queen per colony) and polygynous colonies as well as the relative fitness of queens in polygynous colonies. This paper addresses the difficulties arising from such comparisons and their implications with regard to the methods commonly used to assess reproductive success in queens. The relative reproductive success of queens in monogynous and polygynous colonies is commonly assessed by comparing the relative number of reproductives they produce during a single reproductive season. However, shift in queen number seems to be only one aspect of a profound shift in social structure and reproductive strategy that constitutes, in effect, a ''polygyny syndrome''. For example, female reproductives produced in polygynous colonies frequently use a different mode of colony founding, which in turn affects the probability of their survival. Furthermore, queens from monogynous and polygynous colonies frequently differ in their life-span and the number of sexual broods they produce. As a result, the reproductive success of queens in monogynous and polygynous colonies may not be directly related to the relative number of sexuals they produce during a single reproductive season.

Oral flurbiprofen metabolic ratio assessment using a single-point dried blood spot.

We investigated whether a single blood measurement using the minimally invasive technique of a finger prick to draw a blood sample of 5 µl (to yield a dried blood spot (DBS)) is suitable for the assessment of flurbiprofen (FLB) metabolic ratio (MR). Ten healthy volunteers who had been genotyped for CYP2C9 were recruited as subjects. They received FLB alone in session 1 and FLB with fluconazole in session 2. In session 3, the subjects were pretreated for 4 days with rifampicin and received FLB with the last dose of rifampicin on day 5. Plasma and DBS samples were obtained between 0 and 8 h after FLB administration, and urine was collected during the 8 h after administration. The pharmacokinetic profiles of the drugs were comparable in DBS and plasma. FLB's apparent clearance values decreased by 35% in plasma and DBS during session 2 and increased by 75% in plasma and by 30% in DBS during session 3. Good correlations were observed between MRs calculated from urine, plasma, and DBS samples.

State of the science and the way forward for the ecotoxicological assessment of contaminated land

Over the past two decades, soil ecotoxicologists have made strides in utilizing the basic concepts and advancements in soil zoology and ecology. They have applied the existing tools, and developed new ones to investigate how chemical contamination can affect soil ecosystems, including the degradation or destruction of soil quality and habitats or the diminishment of belowground biodiversity. Soil ecotoxicologists are applying a suite of standard protocols, originally developed as laboratory tests with single chemicals (e.g., pesticides), and further enhancing both the approaches and protocols for the assessment of contaminated lands. However, ecological relevance of some approaches remains unresolved. The authors discuss the main challenges for a coherent ecotoxicological assessment of soil ecosystems amid contaminated lands, and provide recommendations on how to integrate the effects of physical and chemical soil properties, the variations in the diversity of soil invertebrates, and the interactions among organisms of various trophic levels. The review examines new international approaches and test methods using examples from three continents (in particular research conducted in Brazil), and provides recommendations for improving ecological relevance of ecotoxicological investigations of contaminated lands.

Identifying the unmet health needs of patients with congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism using a web-based needs assessment: implications for online interventions and peer-to-peer support.

BACKGROUND: Patients with rare diseases such as congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) are dispersed, often challenged to find specialized care and face other health disparities. The internet has the potential to reach a wide audience of rare disease patients and can help connect patients and specialists. Therefore, this study aimed to: (i) determine if web-based platforms could be effectively used to conduct an online needs assessment of dispersed CHH patients; (ii) identify the unmet health and informational needs of CHH patients and (iii) assess patient acceptability regarding patient-centered, web-based interventions to bridge shortfalls in care. METHODS: A sequential mixed-methods design was used: first, an online survey was conducted to evaluate health promoting behavior and identify unmet health and informational needs of CHH men. Subsequently, patient focus groups were held to explore specific patient-identified targets for care and to examine the acceptability of possible online interventions. Descriptive statistics and thematic qualitative analyses were used. RESULTS: 105 male participants completed the online survey (mean age 37 ± 11, range 19-66 years) representing a spectrum of patients across a broad socioeconomic range and all but one subject had adequate healthcare literacy. The survey revealed periods of non-adherence to treatment (34/93, 37%) and gaps in healthcare (36/87, 41%) exceeding one year. Patient focus groups identified lasting psychological effects related to feelings of isolation, shame and body-image concerns. Survey respondents were active internet users, nearly all had sought CHH information online (101/105, 96%), and they rated the internet, healthcare providers, and online community as equally important CHH information sources. Focus group participants were overwhelmingly positive regarding online interventions/support with links to reach expert healthcare providers and for peer-to-peer support. CONCLUSION: The web-based needs assessment was an effective way to reach dispersed CHH patients. These individuals often have long gaps in care and struggle with the psychosocial sequelae of CHH. They are highly motivated internet users seeking information and tapping into online communities and are receptive to novel web-based interventions addressing their unmet needs.