Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

A hard slog, not a leap frog : globalization and sustainability transitions in developing Asia

How does globalization influence transitions toward more sustainable socio-technical regimes in the developing world? This paper argues that transformations of regimes, the networks and institutions governing technological and environmental practices in an industry, can be positively influenced by globalization but it depends on how global forces interact with local socio-political landscapes-the political-economic institutions, values, and regulations broadly guiding an economy and its relationship to the environment. We evaluate these relationships through a comparison of two kinds of socio-political landscapes-the neo-liberal export-led development model commonly found in the developing world and the uniquely Asian capitalist developmental state. We first show how the neo-liberal model overemphasizes the power of market forces to facilitate upgrading and more sustainable industrialization. We then argue that capitalist developmental states in East and Southeast Asia have been better able to harness global economic forces for technological and sustainability transitions through an openness to trade and investment and effective public-private institutions able to link cleaner technologies and environmental standards to production activities in firms. We buttress this argument with firm-level evidence showing the evolution of socio-technical regimes in two industries-cement and electronics. The case studies demonstrate how interactions with OECD firms can contribute to environmental technique effects provided the socio-political landscape is amenable to changes in an industry's regime. Ultimately, we find the process of transition to be complex and contingent; a hard slog not a leap frog toward a potentially more sustainable future. We close by considering the limitations on the capitalist developmental state model and with comments about what else needs to be learned about globalization's role in sustainability transitions.

Age, physical inactivity, obesity, health conditions, and health-related quality of life among patients receiving conservative management for musculoskeletal disorders

Background Musculoskeletal conditions and insufficient physical activity have substantial personal and economic costs among contemporary aging societies. This study examined the age distribution, comorbid health conditions, body mass index (BMI), self-reported physical activity levels, and health-related quality of life of patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. The study also investigated whether comorbidity, BMI, and self-reported physical activity were associated with patients’ health-related quality of life after adjusting for age as a potential confounder. Methods A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in three ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Participants (n=224) reported their reason for referral, age, comorbid health conditions, BMI, physical activity levels (Active Australia Survey), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D). Descriptive statistics and linear modeling were used to examine the associations between age, comorbidity, BMI, intensity and duration of physical activity, and health-related quality of life. Results The majority of patients (n=115, 51.3%) reported two or more comorbidities. In addition to other musculoskeletal conditions, common comorbidities included depression (n=41, 18.3%), hypertension (n=40, 17.9%), and diabetes (n=39, 17.4%). Approximately one-half of participants (n=110, 49.1%) self-reported insufficient physical activity to meet minimum recommended guidelines and 150 (67.0%) were overweight (n=56, 23.2%), obese (n=64, 28.6%), severely obese (n=16, 7.1%), or very severely obese (n=14, 6.3%), with a higher proportion of older patients affected. A generalized linear model indicated that, after adjusting for age, self-reported physical activity was positively associated (z=4.22, P<0.001), and comorbidities were negatively associated (z=-2.67, P<0.01) with patients’ health-related quality of life. Conclusion Older patients were more frequently affected by undesirable clinical attributes of comorbidity, obesity, and physical inactivity. However, findings from this investigation are compelling for the care of patients of all ages. Potential integration of physical activity behavior change or other effective lifestyle interventions into models of care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders is worthy of further investigation.

An economic case for providing free access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive people in South Australia

Background As financial constraints can be a barrier to accessing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), we argue for the removal of copayment requirements from HIV medications in South Australia. Methods Using a simple mathematical model informed by available behavioural and biological data and reflecting the HIV epidemiology in South Australia, we calculated the expected number of new HIV transmissions caused by persons who are not currently on ART compared with transmissions for people on ART. The extra financial investment required to cover the copayments to prevent an HIV infection was compared with the treatment costs saved due to averting HIV infections. Results It was estimated that one HIV infection is prevented per year for every 31.4 persons (median, 24.0–42.7 interquartile range (IQR)) who receive treatment. By considering the incremental change in costs and outcomes of a change in program from the current status quo, it would cost the health sector $17 860 per infection averted (median, $13 651–24 287 IQR) if ART is provided as a three-dose, three-drug combination without requirements for user-pay copayments. Conclusions The costs of removing copayment fees for ART are less than the costs of treating extra HIV infections that would result under current conditions. Removing the copayment requirement for HIV medication would be cost-effective from a governmental perspective.

Economic evaluation of adolescent reproductive health education interventions in Chilinh, Vietnam

This research was an economic analysis of two novel health education interventions compared to existing practice for reproductive health among young people in northern Vietnam. The research showed that implementing an educational intervention including school-based and health facility-based components was cost effective for males and females. The findings will assist decision makers in efficient allocation of scarce resources for adolescent health promotion in Vietnam and similar socio-economic contexts in Asia.

Coastal development, coral reefs and marine life in Asia: Tourism's double-edged sword

A large proportion of the world's population, including those of Asian countries, live in close proximity to the coastline. Coastlines are being developed at a £aster rate than ever before and there is now a growing body of literature to show that such activities are affecting the quality of coastal ecosystems and its wildlife (see, for example, Jennings, 2004; Siler et al., 2014; Duke eta!., 2007). This in turn is impacting negatively on the fishing and the tourism industries, amongst others. Millions of people depend on these sectors for their livelihoods and, unsustainable development can only make the plight of those who rely on these resources worse. The tourism industry in the coastal regions is particularly at risk since the industry relies heavily on coastal ecosystems to attract visitors. This chapter discusses the strong links that exist between coastal development, tourism, marine ecosystems and its wildlife, drawing attention to two well-known species widely used in tourism, namely whales and sea turtles, and discussing their conservation in relation to tourism. The chapter is divided into six sections. The second section examines why it is important to strike a balance between coastal development and protecting ecosystems. In this section, we discuss the ma.ior identified causes of coastal ecosystem degradation from the published literature, and the third section focuses attention on tourism development in the Asian region, which is one of the major reasons for coastal degradation. A diagrammatic approach is used to illustrate that planning of coastal tourism development which takes into account environmental impacts could result in economic benefits to the areas and regions concerned. The negative impacts on tourism when coastal ecosystems are damaged are discussed in section four. Section five shows the economic benefits resulting from sea turtle and whale watching-based tourism in Australia, and section six examines tourism as a conservation tool. In this section, the differing experiences of sea turtle tourism in Sri Lanka and Australia are discussed based on our published work. The final section concludes.

The plain truth: Australia, tobacco control, and Southeast Asia

As of December 2012, Australia will be the first country in the world where tobacco products will be sold in olive plain packaging without branding. There has been much discussion as to whether this pioneering initiative will spark an ‘Olive Revolution’ around the world — with other countries adopting the plain packaging of tobacco products. Australia’s neighbours in Southeast Asia would particularly benefit from tobacco control measures such as the plain packaging.

Commercial Law in East Asia

The shift of economic gravity towards East Asia requires a critical examination of law's role in the Asian Century. This volume explores the diverse scholarly perspectives on law's role in the economic rise of East Asia and moves from general debates, such as whether law enjoys primacy over culture, state intervention or free markets in East Asian capitalism, to specific case studies looking at the nature of law in East Asian negotiations, contracts, trade policy and corporate governance. The collection of articles exposes the clefts and cleavages in the scholarly literature explaining law's form, function and future in the Asian Century.

Incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in the Asia-Pacific region

Objective: To provide an overview of the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer for countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods: Statistical information about breast cancer was obtained from publicly available cancer registry and mortality databases (such as GLOBOCAN), and supplemented with data requested from individual cancer registries. Rates were directly age-standardised to the Segi World Standard population and trends were analysed using joinpoint models. Results: Breast cancer was the most common type of cancer among females in the region, accounting for 18% of all cases in 2012, and was the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths (9%). Although incidence rates remain much higher in New Zealand and Australia, rapid rises in recent years were observed in several Asian countries. Large increases in breast cancer mortality rates also occurred in many areas, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, in contrast to stabilising trends in Hong Kong and Singapore, while decreases have been recorded in Australia and New Zealand. Mortality trends tended to be more favourable for women aged under 50 compared to those who were 50 years or older. Conclusion: It is anticipated that incidence rates of breast cancer in developing countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region will continue to increase. Early detection and access to optimal treatment are the keys to reducing breast cancer-related mortality, but cultural and economic obstacles persist. Consequently, the challenge is to customise breast cancer control initiatives to the particular needs of each country to ensure the best possible outcomes.

How Australian construction contractors responded to the economic downturn

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 had a significant impact on the world economy and the construction industry was no exception. This study investigates the major impacts of the 2008 GFC on the Australian construction industry and, in particular how the Australian construction contractors responded to the economic downturn. A total of 35 senior managers from the Top 100 Australian construction companies were interviewed. The findings indicate that construction companies, particularly the large ones were not affected in any significant way but are expecting some difficult financial times over the next few years and are taking actions to minimize the upcoming adverse impacts. The most common strategy adopted by Australian construction contractors is to concentrate on core business while avoiding aimless bidding. Similarly, great focus is placed on retaining human resources in order to maintain the skill set so that the company can respond quickly when market conditions improves. The research findings will provide construction contractors with insights on how to establish and sustain competitive advantages during economic slowdown and become more resilient in the future.

Violence against children in the Asia Pacific region: the situation is becoming clearer [Editorial]

Up to the year 2000, there was very little scientific evidence in this region about the scale of child maltreatment, its effects on children, families, and society, and the resultant economic burden. Since then, many agencies large and small, government and nongovernment, and universitybased researchers have worked independently with diverse groups of people to measure violence, neglect and other childhood adversities and to understand the harmful consequences...

The burden of child maltreatment in the East Asia and Pacific region

This study estimated the health and economic burden of child maltreatment in the East Asia and Pacific region, addressing a significant gap in the current evidence base. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were conducted to estimate the prevalence of child physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect, and witnessing parental violence. Population Attributable Fractions were calculated and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost from physical and mental health outcomes and health risk behaviors attributable to child maltreatment were estimated using the most recent comparable Global Burden of Disease data. DALY losses were converted into monetary value by assuming that one DALY is equal to the sub-region’s per capita GDP. The estimated economic value of DALYs lost to violence against children as a percentage of GDP ranged from 1.24% to 3.46% across sub-regions defined by the World Health Organization. The estimated economic value of DALYs (in constant 2000 US$) lost to child maltreatment in the EAP region totaled US $151 billion, accounting for 1.88% of the region’s GDP. Updated to 2012 dollars, the estimated economic burden totaled US $194 billion. In sensitivity analysis, the aggregate costs as a percentage of GDP range from 1.36% to 2.52%. The economic burden of child maltreatment in the East Asia and Pacific region is substantial, indicating the importance of preventing and responding to child maltreatment in this region. More comprehensive research into the impact of multiple types of childhood adversity on a wider range of putative health outcomes is needed to guide policy and programs for child protection in the region, and globally.

Evidence for Permo-Triassic collision in Far East Asia: The Korean collisional orogen

Eclogites from paragneiss in the Korean Peninsula are characterized by a peak pressure assemblage of garnet + omphacite + quartz + rutile, that is overprinted by multiphase symplectites involving augite, amphibole, orthopyroxene, ilmenite and plagioclase and by a similar high-pressure assemblage with a pronounced absence of the omphacite component in clinopyroxene formed during the peak and orthopyroxene in the retrograde stage. Eclogites were metamorphosed at a minimum pressures of not, vert, similar 20–23 kbar at temperatures of not, vert, similar 840–1000 °C, equivalent to a crustal depth of not, vert, similar 70–75 km, whereas high-pressure granulite in Late Paleozoic rocks underwent metamorphic conditions of not, vert, similar 18–19 kbar at not, vert, similar 950 °C with a minimum crustal depth of not, vert, similar 60–65 km. The presence of the eclogites and high-pressure granulite suggests deep-seated subduction of crustal complexes with metamorphism at different crustal levels. The eclogites were exhumed quickly resulting in near- isothermal decompression. On the other hand, the multistage exhumation of the high-pressure granulites suggests retrograde overprinting after initial decompression. The similarity of these petrological characteristics, metamorphic conditions and also the regional structural styles with those of the Sulu belt (China) strongly suggests the existence of a Permo-Triassic Alpine-type “Korean collision belt” in Far East Asia. This model provides a better understanding of the paleogeograpic evolution of Permo-Triassic East Asia, including a robust tectonic correlation of the Korean collision belt with the Qinling–Dabie–Sulu collision belt.

Maaseutuopistoista Yliopistoon : Maatalous- ja metsätieteiden tutkimus- ja opetustoiminnan akatemisoitumisprosessi Helsingin Yliopistossa vuoteen 1945

From Provincial Institutes to the University. The Academisation Process of the Research and Teaching of Agricultural and Forest Sciences at the University of Helsinki before 1945. This study focuses on the teaching and research conducted in the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry at the University of Helsinki, as well as in its predecessor, the Section of Agriculture and Economics before 1945. The study falls into the field of university history. Its key research question is the academisation process, an example of which is the academisation process of the teaching and research of agricultural and forest sciences in Finland. From a perspective of university history, the study looks at academisation as the beginning of university-level teaching and research in these fields, or their relocation to a university or another institute of university standing. In addition to the above, the academisation process also includes the establishment of the position of the subjects and their acceptance as part of university activity. Academic closure, on the other hand, prevents the academisation of new subjects. In Finland, the preliminary stage of the academisation of the research and teaching of the agriculture and forestry was the Age of Utility, when questions concerning the subjects became part of clerical and civil service training at the Royal Academy of Turku in the mid-18th century. In the mid-19th century, as a result of social and economic development, agricultural and forestry professionals needed more theoretical professional training. At that time, the Imperial Alexander University was focused on traditional professional training and theoretical education, so, because of this academic closure, practical training for agronomists and foresters was organised at first outside the University at the Mustiala Agricultural Institute and the Evo Forest Institute. In the late 19th century, discussion began on the reform of higher agricultural and forestry education. This led, from the 1890s, to the academisation of higher agricultural and forestry education and research at the Alexander University. Academisation was followed by a transitional stage, during which the work of the Section of Agriculture and Economics, which had begun in 1902, became more established in about 1910. The position of the agricultural and forest sciences was, however, largely temporary, because of the planned Agricultural University. A sign of this establishment and of the rise in scientific status of the subjects was the commencement of operations of the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry in 1924. Furthermore, as a consequence of the development of the subjects and the collapse of the Agricultural University project, agricultural and forest sciences gradually began to be accepted at the University of Helsinki from the end of the 1920s. This led to the allocation of sites for the faculty buildings and research farms, and to the building of ‘Metsätalo’ before the Second World War. Key words: academisation, academisation process, academic closure, university history, University of Helsinki, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, agricultural sciences, forest sciences, agronomy training, forestry training

Changes in Employment Security in Asia

Much attention has been focused on the decline of traditional employment structures in the advanced industrial countries. Lesser attention has focused on this issue in Asia. In this comparative essay, the authors examine the changes in employment security in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. They focus on the historical development of the employment security social contract in these countries, noting the institutional features that gave rise to it in each country. They then examine the resilience of employment security norms under recent economic pressures. They find there has been substantial erosion in employment security during the 1990s in all four countries due to both increased competition and economic liberalization, although there is some variation in both the rate of erosion as well as the prospects for revival of the social contract. They assess the possibilities of a revival in this particular social contract, and the impact of the erosion on unorganized workers.