Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

Rapid, automated detection of stem canker symptoms in woody perennials using artificial neural network analysis

Background Pseudomonas syringae can cause stem necrosis and canker in a wide range of woody species including cherry, plum, peach, horse chestnut and ash. The detection and quantification of lesion progression over time in woody tissues is a key trait for breeders to select upon for resistance. Results In this study a general, rapid and reliable approach to lesion quantification using image recognition and an artificial neural network model was developed. This was applied to screen both the virulence of a range of P. syringae pathovars and the resistance of a set of cherry and plum accessions to bacterial canker. The method developed was more objective than scoring by eye and allowed the detection of putatively resistant plant material for further study. Conclusions Automated image analysis will facilitate rapid screening of material for resistance to bacterial and other phytopathogens, allowing more efficient selection and quantification of resistance responses.

Southern Ocean isopycnal mixing and ventilation changes driven by winds

Observed and predicted changes in the strength of the westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean have motivated a number of studies of the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) to wind perturbations and led to the discovery of the``eddy-compensation" regime, wherein the MOC becomes insensitive to wind changes. In addition to the MOC, tracer transport also depends on mixing processes. Here we show, in a high-resolution process model, that isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies is strongly dependent on the wind strength. This dependence can be explained by mixing-length theory and is driven by increases in eddy kinetic energy; the mixing length does not change strongly in our simulation. Simulation of a passive ventilation tracer (analogous to CFCs or anthropogenic CO$_2$) demonstrates that variations in tracer uptake across experiments are dominated by changes in isopycnal mixing, rather than changes in the MOC. We argue that, to properly understand tracer uptake under different wind-forcing scenarios, the sensitivity of isopycnal mixing to winds must be accounted for.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

COLOR STABILITY OF DENTAL CERAMICS SUBMITTED TO ARTIFICIAL ACCELERATED AGING AFTER REPEATED FIRINGS

Statement of problem. Color stability is an important factor to ensure the long-term clinical success of ceramic restorations. There is a lack of information on how color is affected by fabrication procedures, such as the number of firings. Purpose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects that the number of firings and type of substrate have on the color stability of dental ceramic submitted to artificial accelerated aging. Material and methods. Sixty specimens were fabricated: 30 metal ceramic (Verabond II + IPS d.SIGN) and 30 all-ceramic (IPS d.SIGN). Specimens were divided into 3 groups (n=10), and submitted to 2, 3, or 4 firings (+/- 900 degrees C), respectively, according to the manufacturer`s instructions. Color readings were obtained with a spectro photometer before and after artificial accelerated aging, and L*, a*, and b* coordinates and total color variation (Delta E) were analyzed (2-way ANOVA, Bonferroni, (alpha=05). Results. For metal ceramic specimens, differences for the L* coordinates were significant (P<.05) only for the group submitted to 3 firings. With respect to the all-ceramic specimens, smaller L* coordinates were obtained for greater a* and b* coordinates, indicating that the greater the number of firings, the darker and more reddish/yellowish the specimen. All Delta E values, for all groups, were below 1.0. All-ceramic specimens submitted to 3 and 4 firings presented Delta E means differing statistically (P<.05) from those of the metal ceramic group. Conclusions. The type of substrate and number of firings affected the color stability of the ceramic material tested. Artificial accelerated aging did not produce perceptible color stability changes (Delta E<1.0). (J Prosthet Dent 2009-101:13-18)

Corrosion behavior of pure titanium in artificial saliva solution

The biocompatibility of commercially pure (cp) titanium stems from its chemical stability within an organism, due to a fine film of impermeable titanium oxide covering the metal surface, which guarantees its resistance to corrosion. Despite its biocompatible characteristic, this material does not promote the formation of a hydroxyapatite layer, therefore, many research groups have sought to alter the material`s surface, introducing modifications that might influence corrosion resistance. The electrochemical behavior of cp Ti, with hydroxyapatite coating and without hydroxyapatite coating, commonly used in implant materials, was investigated using an artificial saliva solution at 25 degrees C and pH=7.4. In the conditions of the study it was observed that the hydroxyapatite layer influences the properties of corrosion resistance. This study of the behavior of cp Ti with and without hydroxyapatite coating, in naturally aerated artificial saliva solution at 25 degrees C, was based on open circuit potential measurements and potentiodynamic polarization curves. At approximately 1x10(-6) A/cm(2) the potential for cp Ti with and without hydroxyapatite coating begins to increase at a faster rate, but at -74mV (SCE) for coated cp Ti and at 180mV (SCE) for uncoated cp Ti the increase in potential begins to slow. This behavior, characterized by a partial stabilization of current density, indicates that in those potential ranges a protective passive film is formed.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS. II. THE EFFECTS OF A TILTED MAGNETOSPHERE AND PLANETARY INTERACTIONS

Based on our previous work, we investigate here the effects on the wind and magnetospheric structures of weak-lined T Tauri stars due to a misalignment between the axis of rotation of the star and its magnetic dipole moment vector. In such a configuration, the system loses the axisymmetry presented in the aligned case, requiring a fully three-dimensional (3D) approach. We perform 3D numerical magnetohydrodynamic simulations of stellar winds and study the effects caused by different model parameters, namely the misalignment angle theta(t), the stellar period of rotation, the plasma-beta, and the heating index.. Our simulations take into account the interplay between the wind and the stellar magnetic field during the time evolution. The system reaches a periodic behavior with the same rotational period of the star. We show that the magnetic field lines present an oscillatory pattern. Furthermore, we obtain that by increasing theta(t), the wind velocity increases, especially in the case of strong magnetic field and relatively rapid stellar rotation. Our 3D, time-dependent wind models allow us to study the interaction of a magnetized wind with a magnetized extrasolar planet. Such interaction gives rise to reconnection, generating electrons that propagate along the planet`s magnetic field lines and produce electron cyclotron radiation at radio wavelengths. The power released in the interaction depends on the planet`s magnetic field intensity, its orbital radius, and on the stellar wind local characteristics. We find that a close-in Jupiter-like planet orbiting at 0.05 AU presents a radio power that is similar to 5 orders of magnitude larger than the one observed in Jupiter, which suggests that the stellar wind from a young star has the potential to generate strong planetary radio emission that could be detected in the near future with LOFAR. This radio power varies according to the phase of rotation of the star. For three selected simulations, we find a variation of the radio power of a factor 1.3-3.7, depending on theta(t). Moreover, we extend the investigation done in Vidotto et al. and analyze whether winds from misaligned stellar magnetospheres could cause a significant effect on planetary migration. Compared to the aligned case, we show that the timescale tau(w) for an appreciable radial motion of the planet is shorter for larger misalignment angles. While for the aligned case tau(w) similar or equal to 100 Myr, for a stellar magnetosphere tilted by theta(t) = 30 degrees, tau(w) ranges from similar to 40 to 70 Myr for a planet located at a radius of 0.05 AU. Further reduction on tau(w) might occur for even larger misalignment angles and/or different wind parameters.

Wolf-Rayet optically thick winds with Alfven waves

The Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars are hot luminous objects which are suffering an extreme mass loss via a continuous stellar wind. The high values of mass loss rates and high terminal velocities of the WR stellar winds constitute a challenge to the theories of radiation driven winds. Several authors incorporated magnetic forces to the line driven mechanism in order to explain these characteristics of the wind. Observations indicate that the WR stellar winds may reach, at the photosphere, velocities of the order of the terminal values, which means that an important part of the wind acceleration occurs at the optically thick region. The aim of this study is to analyze a model in which the wind in a WR star begins to be accelerated in the optically thick part of the wind. We used as initial conditions stellar parameters taken from the literature and solved the energy, mass and momentum equations. We demonstrate that the acceleration only by radiative forces is prevented by the general behavior of the opacities. Combining radiative forces plus a flux of Alfven waves, we found in the simulations a fast drop in the wind density profile which strongly reduces the extension of the optically thick region and the wind becomes optically thin too close its base. The understanding how the WR wind initiate is still an open issue. (C) 2010 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alfven waves as a driving mechanism in stellar winds

Alfven waves have been invoked as an important mechanism of particle acceleration in stellar winds of cool stars. After their identification in the solar wind they started to be studied in winds of stars located in different regions of the FIR diagram. We discuss here some characteristics of these waves and we present a direct application in the acceleration of late-type stellar winds. (C) 2009 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS: THE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND ON GIANT PLANET MIGRATION

By means of numerical simulations, we investigate magnetized stellar winds of pre-main-sequence stars. In particular, we analyze under which circumstances these stars will present elongated magnetic features (e.g., helmet streamers, slingshot prominences, etc). We focus on weak-lined T Tauri stars, as the presence of the tenuous accretion disk is not expected to have strong influence on the structure of the stellar wind. We show that the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio of thermal to magnetic energy densities) is a decisive factor in defining the magnetic configuration of the stellar wind. Using initial parameters within the observed range for these stars, we show that the coronal magnetic field configuration can vary between a dipole-like configuration and a configuration with strong collimated polar lines and closed streamers at the equator (multicomponent configuration for the magnetic field). We show that elongated magnetic features will only be present if the plasma-beta parameter at the coronal base is beta(0) << 1. Using our self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics model, we estimate for these stellar winds the timescale of planet migration due to drag forces exerted by the stellar wind on a hot-Jupiter. In contrast to the findings of Lovelace et al., who estimated such timescales using the Weber and Davis model, our model suggests that the stellar wind of these multicomponent coronae are not expected to have significant influence on hot-Jupiters migration. Further simulations are necessary to investigate this result under more intense surface magnetic field strengths (similar to 2-3 kG) and higher coronal base densities, as well as in a tilted stellar magnetosphere.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF MAGNETIZED WINDS OF SOLAR-LIKE STARS

By means of self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulations, we analyze magnetized solar-like stellar winds and their dependence on the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio between thermal and magnetic energy densities). This is the first study to perform such analysis solving the fully ideal three-dimensional MHD equations. We adopt in our simulations a heating parameter described by gamma, which is responsible for the thermal acceleration of the wind. We analyze winds with polar magnetic field intensities ranging from 1 to 20 G. We show that the wind structure presents characteristics that are similar to the solar coronal wind. The steady-state magnetic field topology for all cases is similar, presenting a configuration of helmet streamer-type, with zones of closed field lines and open field lines coexisting. Higher magnetic field intensities lead to faster and hotter winds. For the maximum magnetic intensity simulated of 20 G and solar coronal base density, the wind velocity reaches values of similar to 1000 km s(-1) at r similar to 20r(0) and a maximum temperature of similar to 6 x 10(6) K at r similar to 6r(0). The increase of the field intensity generates a larger ""dead zone"" in the wind, i.e., the closed loops that inhibit matter to escape from latitudes lower than similar to 45 degrees extend farther away from the star. The Lorentz force leads naturally to a latitude-dependent wind. We show that by increasing the density and maintaining B(0) = 20 G the system recover back to slower and cooler winds. For a fixed gamma, we show that the key parameter in determining the wind velocity profile is the beta-parameter at the coronal base. Therefore, there is a group of magnetized flows that would present the same terminal velocity despite its thermal and magnetic energy densities, as long as the plasma-beta parameter is the same. This degeneracy, however, can be removed if we compare other physical parameters of the wind, such as the mass-loss rate. We analyze the influence of gamma in our results and we show that it is also important in determining the wind structure.

Iridaea cordata (Gigartinales, Rhodophyta): responses to artificial UVB radiation

The effects of UVB radiation on the different developmental stages of the carrageenan-producing red alga Iridaea cordata were evaluated considering: (1) carpospore and discoid germling mortality; (2) growth rates and morphology of young tetrasporophytes; and (3) growth rates and pigment content of field-collected plant fragments. Unialgal cultures were submitted to 0.17, 0.5, or 0.83 W m(-2) of UVB radiation for 3 h per day. The general culture conditions were as follows: 12 h light/12 h dark cycles; irradiance of 55 mu mol photon. per square meter per second; temperature of 9 +/- 1 degrees C; and seawater enriched with Provasoli solution. All UVB irradiation treatments were harmful to carpospores (0.17 W m(-2) = 40.9 +/- 6.9%, 0.5 W m(-2) = 59.8 +/- 13.4%, 0.83 W m(-2) = 49 +/- 17.4% mortality in 3 days). Even though the mortality of all discoid germlings exposed to UVB radiation was unchanged when compared to the control, those germlings exposed to 0.5 and 0.83 W m(-2) treatments became paler and had smaller diameters than those cultivated under control treatment. Decreases in growth rates were observed in young tetrasporophytes, mainly in 0.5 and 0.83 W m(-2) treatments. Similar effects were only observed in fragments of adult plants cultivated at 0.83 W m(-2). Additionally, UVB radiation caused morphological changes in fragments of adult plants in the first week, while the young individuals only displayed this pattern during the third week. The verified morphological alterations in I. cordata could be interpreted as a defense against UVB by reducing the area exposed to radiation. However, a high level of radiation appears to produce irreparable damage, especially under long-term exposure. Our results suggest that the sensitivity to ultraviolet radiation decreases with increased algal age and that the various developmental stages have different responses when exposed to the same doses of UVB radiation.

The genotoxic effects of DNA lesions induced by artificial UV-radiation and sunlight

Solar radiation sustains and affects all life forms on Earth. The increase in solar UV-radiation at environmental levels, due to depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, highlights serious issues of social concern. This becomes still more dramatic in tropical and subtropical regions where radiation-intensity is still higher. Thus, there is the need to evaluate the harmful effects of solar UV-radiation on the DNA molecule as a basis for assessing the risks involved for human health, biological productivity and ecosystems. In order to evaluate the profile of DNA damage induced by this form of radiation and its genotoxic effects, plasmid DNA samples were exposed to artificial-UV lamps and directly to sunlight. The induction of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer photoproducts (CPDs) and oxidative DNA damage in these molecules were evaluated by means of specific DNA repair enzymes. On the other hand, the biological effects of such lesions were determined through the analysis of the DNA inactivation rate and mutation frequency, after replication of the damaged pCMUT vector in an Escherichia coli MBL50 strain. The results indicated the induction of a significant number of CPDs after exposure to increasing doses of UVC, UVB, UVA radiation and sunlight. Interestingly, these photoproducts are those lesions that better correlate with plasmid inactivation as well as mutagenesis, and the oxidative DNA damages induced present very low correlation with these effects. The results indicated that DNA photoproducts play the main role in the induction of genotoxic effects by artificial UV-radiation sources and sunlight. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An artificial nanoemulsion carrying paclitaxel decreases the transplant heart vascular disease: A study in a rabbit graft model

Objective: In previous studies cholesterol-rich nanoemulsions (LDE) resembling low-density lipoprotein were shown to concentrate in atherosclerotic lesions of rabbits. Lesions were pronouncedly reduced by treatment with paclitaxel associated with LDE. This study aimed to test the hypothesis of whether LDE-paclitaxel is able to concentrate in grafted hearts of rabbits and to ameliorate coronary allograft vasculopathy after the transplantation procedure. Methods: Twenty-one New Zealand rabbits fed 0.5% cholesterol were submitted to heterotopic heart transplantation at the cervical position. All rabbits undergoing transplantation were treated with cyclosporin A (10 mg . kg(-1) . d(-1) by mouth). Eleven rabbits were treated with LDE-paclitaxel (4 mg/kg body weight paclitaxel per week administered intravenously for 6 weeks), and 10 control rabbits were treated with 3 mL/wk intravenous saline. Four control animals were injected with LDE labeled with [(14)C]-cholesteryl oleate ether to determine tissue uptake. Results: Radioactive LDE uptake by grafts was 4-fold that of native hearts. In both groups the coronary arteries of native hearts showed no stenosis, but treatment with LDE-paclitaxel reduced the degree of stenosis in grafted hearts by 50%. The arterial luminal area in grafts of the treated group was 3-fold larger than in control animals. LDE-paclitaxel treatment resulted in a 7-fold reduction of macrophage infiltration. In grafted hearts LDE-paclitaxel treatment reduced the width of the intimal layer and inhibited the destruction of the medial layer. No toxicity was observed in rabbits receiving LDE-paclitaxel treatment. Conclusions: LDE-paclitaxel improved posttransplantation injury to the grafted heart. The novel therapeutic approach for heart transplantation management validated here is thus a promising strategy to be explored in future clinical studies. (J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2011;141:1522-8)