Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model

Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone

Flow in geophysical fluids is commonly summarized by coherent streams, for example conveyor belt flows in extratropical cyclones or jet streaks in the upper troposphere. Typically, parcel trajectories are calculated from the flow field and subjective thresholds are used to distinguish coherent streams of interest. This methodology contribution develops a more objective approach to distinguish coherent airstreams within extratropical cyclones. Agglomerative clustering is applied to trajectories along with a method to identify the optimal number of cluster classes. The methodology is applied to trajectories associated with the low-level jets of a well-studied extratropical cyclone. For computational efficiency, a constraint that trajectories must pass through these jet regions is applied prior to clustering; the partitioning into different airstreams is then performed by the agglomerative clustering. It is demonstrated that the methodology can identify the salient flow structures of cyclones: the warm and cold conveyor belts. A test focusing on the airstreams terminating at the tip of the bent-back front further demonstrates the success of the method in that it can distinguish fine-scale flow structure such as descending sting jet airstreams.

Extraction of unexpected rules from Twitter hashtags and its application to sport events

Twitter has become a dependable microblogging tool for real time information dissemination and newsworthy events broadcast. Its users sometimes break news on the network faster than traditional newsagents due to their presence at ongoing real life events at most times. Different topic detection methods are currently used to match Twitter posts to real life news of mainstream media. In this paper, we analyse tweets relating to the English FA Cup finals 2012 by applying our novel method named TRCM to extract association rules present in hash tag keywords of tweets in different time-slots. Our system identify evolving hash tag keywords with strong association rules in each time-slot. We then map the identified hash tag keywords to event highlights of the game as reported in the ground truth of the main stream media. The performance effectiveness measure of our experiments show that our method perform well as a Topic Detection and Tracking approach.

KPIs and their properties defined with the EXTREME method

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are the main instruments of Business Performance Management. KPIs are the measures that are translated to both the strategy and the business process. These measures are often designed for an industry sector with the assumptions about business processes in organizations. However, the assumptions can be too incomplete to guarantee the required properties of KPIs. This raises the need to validate the properties of KPIs prior to their application to performance measurement. This paper applies the method called EXecutable Requirements Engineering Management and Evolution (EXTREME) for validation of the KPI definitions. EXTREME semantically relates the goal modeling, conceptual modeling and protocol modeling techniques into one methodology. The synchronous composition built into protocol modeling enables raceability of goals in protocol models and constructive definitions of a KPI. The application of the method clarifies the meaning of KPI properties and procedures of their assessment and validation.

Application of dried blood spots to determine vitamin D status in a large nutritional study with unsupervised sampling: the Food4Me project

An efficient and robust method to measure vitamin D (25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxy vitamin D2 in dried blood spots (DBS) has been developed and applied in the pan-European multi-centre, internet-based, personalised nutrition intervention study Food4Me. The method includes calibration with blood containing endogenous 25(OH)D3, spotted as DBS and corrected for haematocrit content. The methodology was validated following international standards. The performance characteristics did not reach those of the current gold standard liquid chromatography-MS/MS in plasma for all parameters, but were found to be very suitable for status-level determination under field conditions. DBS sample quality was very high, and 3778 measurements of 25(OH)D3 were obtained from 1465 participants. The study centre and the season within the study centre were very good predictors of 25(OH)D3 levels (P<0·001 for each case). Seasonal effects were modelled by fitting a sine function with a minimum 25(OH)D3 level on 20 January and a maximum on 21 July. The seasonal amplitude varied from centre to centre. The largest difference between winter and summer levels was found in Germany and the smallest in Poland. The model was cross-validated to determine the consistency of the predictions and the performance of the DBS method. The Pearson's correlation between the measured values and the predicted values was r 0·65, and the sd of their differences was 21·2 nmol/l. This includes the analytical variation and the biological variation within subjects. Overall, DBS obtained by unsupervised sampling of the participants at home was a viable methodology for obtaining vitamin D status information in a large nutritional study.

Application of data assimilation to ocean and climate prediction

Ocean prediction systems are now able to analyse and predict temperature, salinity and velocity structures within the ocean by assimilating measurements of the ocean’s temperature and salinity into physically based ocean models. Data assimilation combines current estimates of state variables, such as temperature and salinity, from a computational model with measurements of the ocean and atmosphere in order to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty in the forecast accuracy. Data assimilation generally works well with ocean models away from the equator but has been found to induce vigorous and unrealistic overturning circulations near the equator. A pressure correction method was developed at the University of Reading and the Met Office to control these circulations using ideas from control theory and an understanding of equatorial dynamics. The method has been used for the last 10 years in seasonal forecasting and ocean prediction systems at the Met Office and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). It has been an important element in recent re-analyses of the ocean heat uptake that mitigates climate change.

A generalised background correction algorithm for a Halo Doppler lidar and its application to data from Finland

Current commercially available Doppler lidars provide an economical and robust solution for measuring vertical and horizontal wind velocities, together with the ability to provide co- and cross-polarised backscatter profiles. The high temporal resolution of these instruments allows turbulent properties to be obtained from studying the variation in radial velocities. However, the instrument specifications mean that certain characteristics, especially the background noise behaviour, become a limiting factor for the instrument sensitivity in regions where the aerosol load is low. Turbulent calculations require an accurate estimate of the contribution from velocity uncertainty estimates, which are directly related to the signal-to-noise ratio. Any bias in the signal-to-noise ratio will propagate through as a bias in turbulent properties. In this paper we present a method to correct for artefacts in the background noise behaviour of commercially available Doppler lidars and reduce the signal-to-noise ratio threshold used to discriminate between noise, and cloud or aerosol signals. We show that, for Doppler lidars operating continuously at a number of locations in Finland, the data availability can be increased by as much as 50 % after performing this background correction and subsequent reduction in the threshold. The reduction in bias also greatly improves subsequent calculations of turbulent properties in weak signal regimes.

In Vivo Comparison of Hard Tissue Regeneration with Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells Processed with Either the FICOLL Method or the BMAC Method

Objective: To compare new bone formation in maxillary sinus augmentation procedures using biomaterial associated with mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) separated by two different isolation methods. Background: In regenerative medicine open cell concentration systems are only allowed for clinical application under good manufacturing practice conditions. Methods: Mononuclear cells, including MSCs, were concentrated with either the synthetic poylsaccharid (FICOLL) method (classic open system-control group, n = 6 sinus) or the bone marrow aspirate concentrate (BMAC) method (closed system-test group, n = 12 sinus) and transplanted in combination with biomaterial. A sample of the cells was characterized by their ability to differentiate. After 4.1 months (SD +/- 1.0) bone biopsies were obtained and analyzed. Results: The new bone formation in the BMAC group was 19.9% (90% confidence interval [CI], 10.9-29), and in the FICOLL group was 15.5% (90% CI, 8.6-22.4). The 4.4% difference was not significant (90% CI, -4.6-13.5; p = 0.39). MSCs could be differentiated into osteogenic, chondrogenic, and adipogenic lineages. Conclusion: MSCs harvested from bone marrow aspirate in combination with bovine bone matrix particles can form lamellar bone and provide a reliable base for dental implants. The closed BMAC system is suited to substitute the open FICOLL system in bone regeneration procedures.

On the use of rotational splitting asymmetries to probe the internal rotation profile of stars: Application to beta Cephei stars

Rotationally-split modes can provide valuable information about the internal rotation profile of stars. This has been used for years to infer the internal rotation behavior of the Sun. The present work discusses the potential additional information that rotationally splitting asymmetries may provide when studying the internal rotation profile of stars. We present here some preliminary results of a method, currently under development, which intends: 1) to understand the variation of the rotational splitting asymmetries in terms of physical processes acting on the angular momentum distribution in the stellar interior, and 2) how this information can be used to better constrain the internal rotation profile of the stars. The accomplishment of these two objectives should allow us to better use asteroseismology as a test-bench of the different theories describing the angular momentum distribution and evolution in the stellar interiors. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH&Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Quantification of chlordesmethyldiazepam by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry: application to a cloxazolam bioequivalence study

A rapid, sensitive and specific LC-MS/MS method was developed and validated for quantifying chlordesmethyldiazepam (CDDZ or delorazepam), the active metabolite of cloxazolam, in human plasma. In the analytical assay, bromazepam (internal standard) and CDDZ were extracted using a liquid-liquid extraction (diethyl-ether/hexane, 80/20, v/v) procedure. The LC-MS/MS method on a RP-C18 column had an overall run time of 5.0 min and was linear (1/x weighted) over the range 0.5-50 ng/mL (R > 0.999). The between-run precision was 8.0% (1.5 ng/mL), 7.6% (9 ng/mL), 7.4% (40 ng/mL), and 10.9% at the low limit of quantification-LLOQ (0.500 ng/mL). The between-run accuracies were 0.1, -1.5, -2.7 and 8.7% for the above mentioned concentrations, respectively. All current bioanalytical method validation requirements (FDA and ANVISA) were achieved and it was applied to the bioequivalence study (Cloxazolam-test, Eurofarma Lab. Ltda and Olcadil (R)-reference, Novartis Biociencias S/A). The relative bioavailability between both formulations was assessed by calculating individual test/reference ratios for Cmax, AUClast and AUCO-inf. The pharmacokinetic profiles indicated bioequivalence since all ratios were as proposed by FDA and ANVISA. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Two-level network design with intermediate facilities: An application to electrical distribution systems

We consider the two-level network design problem with intermediate facilities. This problem consists of designing a minimum cost network respecting some requirements, usually described in terms of the network topology or in terms of a desired flow of commodities between source and destination vertices. Each selected link must receive one of two types of edge facilities and the connection of different edge facilities requires a costly and capacitated vertex facility. We propose a hybrid decomposition approach which heuristically obtains tentative solutions for the vertex facilities number and location and use these solutions to limit the computational burden of a branch-and-cut algorithm. We test our method on instances of the power system secondary distribution network design problem. The results show that the method is efficient both in terms of solution quality and computational times. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrable maps with non-trivial topology: application to divertor configurations

We explore a method for constructing two-dimensional area-preserving, integrable maps associated with Hamiltonian systems, with a given set of fixed points and given invariant curves. The method is used to find an integrable Poincare map for the field lines in a large aspect ratio tokamak with a poloidal single-null divertor. The divertor field is a superposition of a magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium with an arbitrarily chosen safety factor profile, with a wire carrying an electric current to create an X-point. This integrable map is perturbed by an impulsive perturbation that describes non-axisymmetric magnetic resonances at the plasma edge. The non-integrable perturbed map is applied to study the structure of the open field lines in the scrape-off layer, reproducing the main transport features obtained by integrating numerically the magnetic field line equations, such as the connection lengths and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate.

On the generalized eigenvalue method for energies and matrix elements in lattice field theory

We discuss the generalized eigenvalue problem for computing energies and matrix elements in lattice gauge theory, including effective theories such as HQET. It is analyzed how the extracted effective energies and matrix elements converge when the time separations are made large. This suggests a particularly efficient application of the method for which we can prove that corrections vanish asymptotically as exp(-(E(N+1) - E(n))t). The gap E(N+1) - E(n) can be made large by increasing the number N of interpolating fields in the correlation matrix. We also show how excited state matrix elements can be extracted such that contaminations from all other states disappear exponentially in time. As a demonstration we present numerical results for the extraction of ground state and excited B-meson masses and decay constants in static approximation and to order 1/m(b) in HQET.