Nonlinear time series prediction based on a power-law noise model

In this paper we investigate the influence of a power-law noise model, also called noise, on the performance of a feed-forward neural network used to predict time series. We introduce an optimization procedure that optimizes the parameters the neural networks by maximizing the likelihood function based on the power-law model. We show that our optimization procedure minimizes the mean squared leading to an optimal prediction. Further, we present numerical results applying method to time series from the logistic map and the annual number of sunspots demonstrate that a power-law noise model gives better results than a Gaussian model.

The POINT-AGAPE survey: 4 high signal-to-noise microlensing candidates detected towards M 31

We have carried out a survey of the Andromeda galaxy for unresolved microlensing (pixel lensing). We present a subset of four short timescale, high signal-to-noise microlensing candidates found by imposing severe selection criteria: the source flux variation exceeds the flux of an R = 21 magnitude star and the full width at half maximum timescale is less than 25 days. Remarkably, in three out of four cases, we have been able to measure or strongly constrain the Einstein crossing time of the event. One event, which lies projected on the M 31 bulge, is almost certainly due to a stellar lens in the bulge of M 31. The other three candidates can be explained either by stars in M 31 and M 32 or by MACHOs.

Effects of species loss and nutrients on biodiversity:Anthropogenic impacts on marine biodiversity: effects of enhanced nutrients and species loss on the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of rocky shores

The focus of this study was to disentangle the effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and stability. This project examined the effects of anthropogenic increased nutrient loads on the diversity of coastal ecosystems and the effects of loss of species on ecosystem functioning. Specifically, the direct effect of sewage outfalls on benthic communities was assessed using a fully replicated survey that incorporated spatial and temporal variation. In addition, two field experiments examined the effects of loss of species at multiple trophic levels, and tested for potential interactive effects with enhanced nutrient concentration conditions on benthic assemblage structure and ecosystem functioning. This research addressed priority issues outlined in the Biodiversity Knowledge Programme for Ireland (2006) and also aimed to deliver information relevant to European Union (EU) directives (the Water Framework Directive [WFD], the Habitats Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive).

Statistical-mechanical description of classical test-particle dynamics in the presence of an external force field: modelling noise and damping from first principles

Aiming to establish a rigorous link between macroscopic random motion (described e.g. by Langevin-type theories) and microscopic dynamics, we have undertaken a kinetic-theoretical study of the dynamics of a classical test-particle weakly coupled to a large heat-bath in thermal equilibrium. Both subsystems are subject to an external force field. From the (time-non-local) generalized master equation a Fokker-Planck-type equation follows as a "quasi-Markovian" approximation. The kinetic operator thus defined is shown to be ill-defined; in specific, it does not preserve the positivity of the test-particle distribution function f(x, v; t). Adopting an alternative approach, previously introduced for quantum open systems, is proposed to lead to a correct kinetic operator, which yields all the expected properties. A set of explicit expressions for the diffusion and drift coefficients are obtained, allowing for modelling macroscopic diffusion and dynamical friction phenomena, in terms of an external field and intrinsic physical parameters.

Using Noise Techniques to Destabilize Composition and Improvisation

A description of the uses of computer-generated noise in my instrumental scores and guided improvisations.