Modeling Habitat Associations for the Common Loon (Gavia immer) at Multiple Scales in Northeastern North America

Common Loon (Gavia immer) is considered an emblematic and ecologically important example of aquatic-dependent wildlife in North America. The northern breeding range of Common Loon has contracted over the last century as a result of habitat degradation from human disturbance and lakeshore development. We focused on the state of New Hampshire, USA, where a long-term monitoring program conducted by the Loon Preservation Committee has been collecting biological data on Common Loon since 1976. The Common Loon population in New Hampshire is distributed throughout the state across a wide range of lake-specific habitats, water quality conditions, and levels of human disturbance. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the association of Common Loon and breeding habitat within three natural physiographic ecoregions of New Hampshire. These multiple scales reflect Common Loon-specific extents such as territories, home ranges, and lake-landscape influences. We developed ecoregional multiscale models and compared them to single-scale models to evaluate model performance in distinguishing Common Loon breeding habitat. Based on information-theoretic criteria, there is empirical support for both multiscale and single-scale models across all three ecoregions, warranting a model-averaging approach. Our results suggest that the Common Loon responds to both ecological and anthropogenic factors at multiple scales when selecting breeding sites. These multiscale models can be used to identify and prioritize the conservation of preferred nesting habitat for Common Loon populations.

Investigating Targets of Avian Habitat Management to Eliminate an Ecological Trap

Ecological traps are attractive population sinks created when anthropogenic habitat alteration inadvertently creates a mismatch between the attractiveness of a habitat based upon its settlement cues, and its current value for survival or reproduction. Traps represent a new threat to the conservation of native species, yet little attention has been given to developing practical approaches to eliminating them. In the northern Rocky Mountains of Montana, Olive-sided Flycatchers (Contopus cooperi) prefer to settle in patches of selectively harvested forest versus burned forest despite the lower reproductive success and higher nest predation risk associated with the former habitat. I investigated characteristics of preferred perch sites for this species and how these preferences varied between habitats and sexes. I then built on previous research to develop a range of management prescriptions for reducing the attractiveness of selectively harvested forest, thereby disarming the ecological trap. Female flycatchers preferred to forage from shorter perch trees than males, and females’ perches were shorter than other available perch trees. Both sexes preferred standing dead perch trees (snags) and these preferences were most obvious in harvested forest where snags are rarer. Because previous research shows that snag density is linked to habitat preference and spruce/fir trees are preferred nest substrate, my results suggest these two habitat components are focal habitat selection cues. I suggest alternative and complementary strategies for eliminating the ecological trap for Olive-sided Flycatchers including: (1) reduced retention and creation of snags, (2) avoiding selective harvest in spruce, fir, and larch stands, (3) avoiding retention of these tree species, and (4) selecting only even-aged canopy height trees for retention so as to reduce perch availability for female flycatchers. Because these strategies also have potential to negatively impact habitat suitability for other forest species or even create new ecological traps, we urge caution in the application of our management recommendations.

Estimated Mortality of Selected Migratory Bird Species from Mowing and Other Mechanical Operations in Canadian Agriculture

Mechanical operations such as mowing, tilling, seeding, and harvesting are well-known sources of direct avian mortality in agricultural fields. However, there are currently no mortality rate estimates available for any species group or larger jurisdiction. Even reviews of sources of mortality in birds have failed to address mechanical disturbance in farm fields. To overcome this information gap we provide estimates of total mortality rates by mechanical operations for five selected species across Canada. In our step-by-step modeling approach we (i) quantified the amount of various types of agricultural land in each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) in Canada, (ii) estimated population densities by region and agricultural habitat type for each selected species, (iii) estimated the average timing of mechanical agricultural activities, egg laying, and fledging, (iv) and used these values and additional demographical parameters to derive estimates of total mortality by species within each BCR. Based on our calculations the total annual estimated incidental take of young ranged from ~138,000 for Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris) to as much as ~941,000 for Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis). Net losses to the fall flight of birds, i.e., those birds that would have fledged successfully in the absence of mechanical disturbance, were, for example ~321,000 for Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) and ~483,000 for Savannah Sparrow. Although our estimates are subject to an unknown degree of uncertainty, this assessment is a very important first step because it provides a broad estimate of incidental take for a set of species that may be particularly vulnerable to mechanical operations and a starting point for future refinements of model parameters if and when they become available.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Movements and Habitat Use by Temperate-Nesting Canada Geese During the Postbreeding Period in Southern Québec

Individual behavior that reduces vulnerability to predation can affect population dynamics of animals. Temperate-nesting Canada Geese (Branta canadensis maxima) have increased steadily throughout the Atlantic flyway and have become a nuisance in some parts of their range. The objective of our study was to describe movements and habitat use during the postbreeding period of Canada Geese recently established in southern Québec. More specifically, we wanted to determine whether geese were using areas where hunting was allowed to assess the potential of harvest to control the number of geese. We tracked a sample of geese fitted with radio or conventional alphanumeric collars throughout the fall in three zones characterized by different habitats and hunting pressure. Before the hunting season, geese left the breeding area where hunting was allowed to reach suburban areas where firearm discharge was prohibited or hunters’ numbers were low. These postbreeding movements occurred when juveniles were approximately three months old. We observed few local movements among zones once migrant geese from northern breeding populations reached the study area. Radio-collared geese used mainly natural habitats (75.4 ± 2.6%), followed by urban (14.4 ± 2.7%), and agricultural habitats (10.3 ± 0.8%). They were located 73.8 ± 6.2% of the time in areas where hunting was prohibited. Geese that attended their juveniles during brood rearing were more prone to use areas where firearm discharge was restricted than geese that had abandoned or lost their brood. This study shows that under the prevailing regulations, the potential of hunting to manage the increasing breeding population of Canada Geese in southern Québec is limited.

Piping Plover response to coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season

The increase in coastal storm frequency and intensity expected under most climate change scenarios is likely to substantially modify beach configuration and associated habitats. This study aimed to analyze the impact of coastal storms on a nesting population of the endangered Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in southeastern New Brunswick, Canada. Previous studies have shown that numbers of nesting Piping Plovers may increase following storms that create new nesting habitat at individual beaches. However, to our knowledge, no test of this pattern has been conducted over a regional scale. We hypothesized that Piping Plover abundance would increase after large coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season. However, we expected a delay in the colonization of newly created habitat owing to low-density populations, combined with high site fidelity of adults and high variability in survival rate of subadults. We tested this hypothesis using a 27-year (1986-2012) data set of Piping Plover abundance and productivity (nesting pairs and fledged young) collected at five sites in eastern New Brunswick. We identified 11 major storms that could potentially have modified Piping Plover habitat over the study period. The number of fledged young increased three years after a major storm, but the relationship was much weaker for the number of nesting pairs. These findings are consistent with the hypothesized increase in suitable habitat after coastal storms. Including storm occurrence with other factors influencing habitat quality will enhance Piping Plover conservation strategies.

Shifts in resident bird communities associated with cloud forest patch size in Central Veracruz, Mexico

Avian communities in cloud forests have high levels of endemism and are at major risk given the accelerated rate of habitat fragmentation. Nevertheless, the response of these communities to changes in fragment size remains poorly understood. We evaluated species richness, bird community density, community composition, and dominance as indicators of the response to fragment size in a fragmented cloud forest landscape in central Veracruz, Mexico. Medium-sized fragments had statistically higher than expected species richness and more even communities, which may be a reflection of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, in which medium-sized fragments are exploited by both forest and disturbance-associated species. Bird density also reached higher values in medium-sized fragments, which may indicate a carrying capacity in this habitat. However, large cloud forest fragments had a distinct taxonomic and functional composition, attributable to an increased number of understory insectivore species and canopy frugivores. By comparison, omnivorous species associated with human-altered habitats were more abundant in smaller fragments. Hence, although medium-sized cloud forest fragments had higher species richness and high bird density, large forest tracts maintained a distinct avian community composition, particularly of insectivorous and frugivorous species. Furthermore, the underlying response to fragmentation can only be properly addressed when contrasting several community attributes, such as richness, density, composition, and species dominance. Therefore, cloud forest conservation should aim to preserve the remaining large forest fragments to maintain comprehensive avian communities and avoid local extinctions.

Does changing the taxonomical resolution alter the value of soil macroinvertebrates as bioindicators of metal pollution?

Ecological indicators are taxa that are affected by, and indicate effects of, anthropogenic environmental stress or disturbance on ecosystems. There is evidence that some species of soil macrofauna (i.e. diameter > 2 min) constitute valuable biological indicators of certain types of soil perturbations. This study aims to determine which level of taxonomic resolution, (species, family or ecological group) is the best to identify indicator of soil disturbance. Macrofauna were sampled in a set of sites encompassing different land-use systems (e.g. forests, pastures, crops) and different levels of pollution. Indicator taxa were sought using the IndVal index proposed by Dufrene and Legendre [Dufrene, M., Legendre, P., 1997. Species assemblages and indicator species: the need for a flexible asymetrical approach. Ecological Monographs 67, 345-3661. This approach is based on a hierarchical typology of sites. The index value changes along the typology and decreases (increases) for generalist (specialist) faunal units (species, families or ecological groups). Of the 327 morphospecies recorded, 19 were significantly associated with a site type or a group of sites (5.8%). Similarly, species were aggregated to form 59 families among which 17 (28.8%) displayed a significant indicator value. Gathering species into 28 broad ecological assemblages led to 14 indicator groups (50%). Beyond the simple proportion of units having significant association with a given level of the site typology, the proportion of specialist and generalist groups changed dramatically when the level of taxonomic resolution was altered. At the species level 84% of the indicator units were specialist, whereas this proportion decreased to 70 and 43% when families and ecological groups were considered. Because specialist groups are the most interesting type of indicators either in terms of conservation or for management purposes we come to the conclusion that the species level is the most accurate taxonomic level in bioindication studies although it requires a high amount of labour and operator knowledge and is time-consuming. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A genetic algorithm for the design of a fuzzy controller for active queue management

Active queue management (AQM) policies are those policies of router queue management that allow for the detection of network congestion, the notification of such occurrences to the hosts on the network borders, and the adoption of a suitable control policy. This paper proposes the adoption of a fuzzy proportional integral (FPI) controller as an active queue manager for Internet routers. The analytical design of the proposed FPI controller is carried out in analogy with a proportional integral (PI) controller, which recently has been proposed for AQM. A genetic algorithm is proposed for tuning of the FPI controller parameters with respect to optimal disturbance rejection. In the paper the FPI controller design metodology is described and the results of the comparison with random early detection (RED), tail drop, and PI controller are presented.

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

Transient teleconnection event at the onset of a planet-encircling dust storm on Mars

We use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to study a transient teleconnection event at the onset of the 2001 planet-encircling dust storm on Mars, in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). There are several differences between this and previous studies of atmospheric events using EOFs. First, instead of using a single variable such as surface pressure or geopotential height on a given pressure surface, we use a dataset describing the evolution in time of global and fully three-dimensional atmospheric fields such as horizontal velocity and temperature. These fields are produced by assimilating Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft into a Mars general circulation model. We use total atmospheric energy (TE) as a physically meaningful quantity which weights the state variables. Second, instead of adopting the EOFs to define teleconnection patterns as planetary-scale correlations that explain a large portion of long time-scale variability, we use EOFs to understand transient processes due to localised heating perturbations that have implications for the atmospheric circulation over distant regions. The localised perturbation is given by anomalous heating due to the enhanced presence of dust around the northern edge of the Hellas Planitia basin on Mars. We show that the localised disturbance is seemingly restricted to a small number (a few tens) of EOFs. These can be classified as low-order, transitional, or high-order EOFs according to the TE amount they explain throughout the event. Despite the global character of the EOFs, they show the capability of accounting for the localised effects of the perturbation via the presence of specific centres of action. We finally discuss possible applications for the study of terrestrial phenomena with similar characteristics.

How soccer players head the ball: a test of optic acceleration cancellation theory with virtual reality

We measured the movements of soccer players heading a football in a fully immersive virtual reality environment. In mid-flight the ball’s trajectory was altered from its normal quasi-parabolic path to a linear one, producing a jump in the rate of change of the angle of elevation of gaze (α) from player to ball. One reaction time later the players adjusted their speed so that the rate of change of α increased when it had been reduced and reduced it when it had been increased. Since the result of the player’s movement was to regain a value of the rate of change close to that before the disturbance, the data suggest that the players have an expectation of, and memory for, the pattern that the rate of change of α will follow during the flight. The results support the general claim that players intercepting balls use servo control strategies and are consistent with the particular claim of Optic Acceleration Cancellation theory that the servo strategy is to allow α to increase at a steadily decreasing rate.

Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are relatively rare events in the UK but, when they do occur, can be associated with weather that is considered extreme with respect to climatology (as indicated by the number of such events that have been analysed as case studies). These case studies usually associate UK MCSs with a synoptic environment known as the Spanish plume. Here a previously published 17 year climatology of UK MCS events is extended to the present day (from 1998 to 2008) and these events classified according to the synoptic environment in which they form. Three distinct synoptic environments have been identified, here termed the classical Spanish plume, modified Spanish plume, and European easterly plume. Detailed case studies of the two latter, newly defined, environments are presented. Composites produced for each environment further reveal the differences between them. The classical Spanish plume is associated with an eastward propagating baroclinic cyclone that evolves according to idealised life cycle 1. Conditional instability is released from a warm moist plume of air advected northeastwards from Iberia that is capped by warmer, but very dry air, from the Spanish plateau. The modified Spanish plume is associated with a slowly moving mature frontal system associated with a forward tilting trough (and possibly cut-off low) at 500 hPa that evolves according to idealised life cycle 2. As in the classical Spanish plume, conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected northwards from Iberia. The less frequent European easterly plume is associated with an omega block centred over Scandinavia at upper levels. Conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected westwards across northern continental Europe. Unlike the Spanish plume environments, the European easterly plume is not a warm sector phenomena associated with a baroclinic cyclone. However, in all environments the organisation of convection is associated with the interaction of an upper-level disturbance with a low-level region of warm advection.