A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

Deep Raman spectroscopy for the non-invasive standoff detection of concealed chemical threat agents

Deep Raman spectroscopy has been utilized for the standoff detection of concealed chemical threat agents from a distance of 15 meters under real life background illumination conditions. By using combined time and space resolved measurements, various explosive precursors hidden in opaque plastic containers were identified non-invasively. Our results confirm that combined time and space resolved Raman spectroscopy leads to higher selectivity towards the sub-layer over the surface layer as well as enhanced rejection of fluorescence from the container surface when compared to standoff spatially offset Raman spectroscopy. Raman spectra that have minimal interference from the packaging material and good signal-to-noise ratio were acquired within 5 seconds of measurement time. A new combined time and space resolved Raman spectrometer has been designed with nanosecond laser excitation and gated detection, making it of lower cost and complexity than picosecond-based laboratory systems.

An integrated approach for precise road reconstruction from aerial imagery and LiDAR data

Accurate and detailed road models play an important role in a number of geospatial applications, such as infrastructure planning, traffic monitoring, and driver assistance systems. In this thesis, an integrated approach for the automatic extraction of precise road features from high resolution aerial images and LiDAR point clouds is presented. A framework of road information modeling has been proposed, for rural and urban scenarios respectively, and an integrated system has been developed to deal with road feature extraction using image and LiDAR analysis. For road extraction in rural regions, a hierarchical image analysis is first performed to maximize the exploitation of road characteristics in different resolutions. The rough locations and directions of roads are provided by the road centerlines detected in low resolution images, both of which can be further employed to facilitate the road information generation in high resolution images. The histogram thresholding method is then chosen to classify road details in high resolution images, where color space transformation is used for data preparation. After the road surface detection, anisotropic Gaussian and Gabor filters are employed to enhance road pavement markings while constraining other ground objects, such as vegetation and houses. Afterwards, pavement markings are obtained from the filtered image using the Otsu's clustering method. The final road model is generated by superimposing the lane markings on the road surfaces, where the digital terrain model (DTM) produced by LiDAR data can also be combined to obtain the 3D road model. As the extraction of roads in urban areas is greatly affected by buildings, shadows, vehicles, and parking lots, we combine high resolution aerial images and dense LiDAR data to fully exploit the precise spectral and horizontal spatial resolution of aerial images and the accurate vertical information provided by airborne LiDAR. Objectoriented image analysis methods are employed to process the feature classiffcation and road detection in aerial images. In this process, we first utilize an adaptive mean shift (MS) segmentation algorithm to segment the original images into meaningful object-oriented clusters. Then the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is further applied on the MS segmented image to extract road objects. Road surface detected in LiDAR intensity images is taken as a mask to remove the effects of shadows and trees. In addition, normalized DSM (nDSM) obtained from LiDAR is employed to filter out other above-ground objects, such as buildings and vehicles. The proposed road extraction approaches are tested using rural and urban datasets respectively. The rural road extraction method is performed using pan-sharpened aerial images of the Bruce Highway, Gympie, Queensland. The road extraction algorithm for urban regions is tested using the datasets of Bundaberg, which combine aerial imagery and LiDAR data. Quantitative evaluation of the extracted road information for both datasets has been carried out. The experiments and the evaluation results using Gympie datasets show that more than 96% of the road surfaces and over 90% of the lane markings are accurately reconstructed, and the false alarm rates for road surfaces and lane markings are below 3% and 2% respectively. For the urban test sites of Bundaberg, more than 93% of the road surface is correctly reconstructed, and the mis-detection rate is below 10%.

Fabrication of macro-mesoporous zirconia-alumina materials with a 1D hierarchical structure

A series of one dimensional (1D) zirconia/alumina nanocomposites were prepared by the deposition of zirconium species onto the 3D framework of boehmite nanofibres formed by dispersing boehmite nanofibres into butanol solution. The materials were calcined at 773K and characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscope (TEM), N2 adsorption/desorption, infrared emission spectroscopy (IES). The results demonstrated that when the molar percentage X=100*Zr/(Al+Zr) was > 30 %, extremely long ZrO2/Al2O3 composite nanorods with evenly distributed ZrO2 nanocrystals on the surface were formed. The stacking of such nanorods gave rise to a new kind of macroporous material without the use of any organic space filler\template or other specific technologies. The mechanism for the formation of long ZrO2/Al2O3 composite nanorods was proposed in this work.

Fast detection of exact clones in business process model repositories

As organizations reach higher levels of business process management maturity, they often find themselves maintaining very large process model repositories, representing valuable knowledge about their operations. A common practice within these repositories is to create new process models, or extend existing ones, by copying and merging fragments from other models. We contend that if these duplicate fragments, a.k.a. ex- act clones, can be identified and factored out as shared subprocesses, the repository’s maintainability can be greatly improved. With this purpose in mind, we propose an indexing structure to support fast detection of clones in process model repositories. Moreover, we show how this index can be used to efficiently query a process model repository for fragments. This index, called RPSDAG, is based on a novel combination of a method for process model decomposition (namely the Refined Process Structure Tree), with established graph canonization and string matching techniques. We evaluated the RPSDAG with large process model repositories from industrial practice. The experiments show that a significant number of non-trivial clones can be efficiently found in such repositories, and that fragment queries can be handled efficiently.

Factors of process model comprehension : findings from a series of experiments

In order to make good decisions about the design of information systems, an essential skill is to understand process models of the business domain the system is intended to support. Yet, little knowledge to date has been established about the factors that affect how model users comprehend the content of process models. In this study, we use theories of semiotics and cognitive load to theorize how model and personal factors influence how model viewers comprehend the syntactical information of process models. We then report on a four-part series of experiments, in which we examined these factors. Our results show that additional semantical information impedes syntax comprehension, and that theoretical knowledge eases syntax comprehension. Modeling experience further contributes positively to comprehension efficiency, measured as the ratio of correct answers to the time taken to provide answers. We discuss implications for practice and research.

Does venture opportunity variation matter? Investigating systemic process differences between innovative and imitative new ventures

The central thesis in the article is that the venture creation process is different for innovative versus imitative ventures. This holds up; the pace of the process differs by type of venture as do, in line with theory-based hypotheses, the effects of certain human capital (HC) and social capital (SC) predictors. Importantly, and somewhat unexpectedly, the theoretically derived models using HC, SC, and certain controls are relatively successful explaining progress in the creation process for the minority of innovative ventures, but achieve very limited success for the imitative majority. This may be due to a rationalistic bias in conventional theorizing and suggests that there is need for considerable theoretical development regarding the important phenomenon of new venture creation processes. Another important result is that the building up of instrumental social capital, which we assess comprehensively and as a time variant construct, is important for making progress with both types of ventures, and increasingly, so as the process progresses. This result corroborates with stronger operationalization and more appropriate analysis method what previously published research has only been able to hint at.

A software framework for risk-aware business process management

With the large diffusion of Business Process Managemen (BPM) automation suites, the possibility of managing process-related risks arises. This paper introduces an innovative framework for process-related risk management and describes a working implementation realized by extending the YAWL system. The framework covers three aspects of risk management: risk monitoring, risk prevention, and risk mitigation. Risk monitoring functionality is provided using a sensor-based architecture, where sensors are defined at design time and used at run-time for monitoring purposes. Risk prevention functionality is provided in the form of suggestions about what should be executed, by who, and how, through the use of decision trees. Finally, risk mitigation functionality is provided as a sequence of remedial actions (e.g. reallocating, skipping, rolling back of a work item) that should be executed to restore the process to a normal situation.

Vulnerabilities in the courtroom

Book summary: In a constantly evolving context of performance management, accountability and risk assessment, police organisations and frontline police officers are required to pay careful attention to what has come to be known as ‘at risk people’, ‘vulnerable populations’ or ‘vulnerable people’. Vulnerable people have become a key focus of policy. Concurrently, there have been stronger demands on police, and a steep increase in police powers in relation to their interaction with vulnerable people. The premise of this protectionist and interventionist agenda is threefold: to protect the rights of vulnerable individuals proactively cater for their vulnerability within the justice system; and to secure police operations and protocols within strict guidelines. This collection unpacks ‘vulnerable people policing’ in theory and practice and guides the reader through the policing process as it is experienced by police officers, victims, offenders, witnesses and justice stakeholders. Each chapter features a single step of the policing process: from police recruit education through to custody, and the final transfer of vulnerable people to courts and sentencing. This edited collection provides analytical, theoretical and empirical insights on vulnerable people policing, and reflects on critical issues in a domain that is increasingly subject to speedy conversion from policy to practice, and heightened media and political scrutiny. It breaks down policing practices, operations and procedures that have vulnerable populations as a focus, bringing together original and innovative academic research and literature, practitioner experience and discussion of policy implications (from local and international perspectives). The particular nature of this collection highlights the multi-disciplinary nature of police work, sheds light on how specific, mandatory policies guide police officers steps in their interaction with vulnerable populations, and discusses the practicalities of police decision making at key points in this process.

Online retailing versus traditional stores in the purchasing decision making process

Due to proliferation of online stores prior expectations that retailing would move completely online were not fulfilled. Previous research about consumers’ preference of retailing channels suggested that online sales are driven by the convenience of online shopping, or as a natural extension of online searches. This paradigm has changed over the years. Changes in consumer behaviour are indicating that while consumers are searching online using various information sources to learn about products, ultimately when purchasing, consumers are shifting between online and offline retailing channels depending on various factors. Online shopping is still considered to be a convenient way to purchase goods, but the convenience is not the key factor. This qualitative research is based on 22 in-depth interviews with shoppers in Australia.

Three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis of water chemistry data to analyse and visualise aquifer structure and groundwater composition in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand

Concerns regarding groundwater contamination with nitrate and the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources have prompted the development of a multi-layered three dimensional (3D) geological model to characterise the aquifer geometry of the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand. The 3D geological model which consists of eight litho-stratigraphic units has been subsequently used to synthesise hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data for different aquifers in an approach that aims to demonstrate how integration of water chemistry data within the physical framework of a 3D geological model can help to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings. Multivariate statistical techniques(e.g. Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) were applied to groundwater chemistry data to identify hydrochemical facies which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters. Principal Component Analysis on hydrochemical data demonstrated that natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact are the key controls of groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis revealed distinct hydrochemical water quality groups in the Wairau Plain groundwater system. Visualisation of the results of the multivariate statistical analyses and distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the context of aquifer lithology highlighted the link between groundwater chemistry and the lithology of host aquifers. The methodology followed in this study can be applied in a variety of hydrogeological settings to synthesise geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical data and present them in a format readily understood by a wide range of stakeholders. This enables a more efficient communication of the results of scientific studies to the wider community.

Hierarchical robust design optimisation of shock control bump devices for airfoil drag reduction

The paper investigates a detailed Active Shock Control Bump Design Optimisation on a Natural Laminar Flow (NLF) aerofoil; RAE 5243 to reduce cruise drag at transonic flow conditions using Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) coupled to a robust design approach. For the uncertainty design parameters, the positions of boundary layer transition (xtr) and the coefficient of lift (Cl) are considered (250 stochastic samples in total). In this paper, two robust design methods are considered; the first approach uses a standard robust design method, which evaluates one design model at 250 stochastic conditions for uncertainty. The second approach is the combination of a standard robust design method and the concept of hierarchical (multi-population) sampling (250, 50, 15) for uncertainty. Numerical results show that the evolutionary optimization method coupled to uncertainty design techniques produces useful and reliable Pareto optimal SCB shapes which have low sensitivity and high aerodynamic performance while having significant total drag reduction. In addition,it also shows the benefit of using hierarchical robust method for detailed uncertainty design optimization.

Conflict or consensus : an investigation of stakeholder concerns during the participation process of major infrastructure and construction projects in Hong Kong

Public participate in the planning and design of major public infrastructure and construction (PIC) projects is crucial to their success, as the interests of different stakeholders can be systematically captured and built into the finalised scheme. However, public participation may not always yield a mutually acceptable solution, especially when the interests of stakeholders are diverse and conflicting. Confrontations and disputes can arise unless the concerns or needs of the community are carefully analysed and addressed. The aim of the paper is to propose a systematic method of analysing stakeholder concerns relating to PIC projects by examining the degree of consensus and/or conflict involved. The results of a questionnaire survey and a series of interviews with different entities are provided, which indicate the existence of a significant divergence of views among stakeholder groups and that conflicts arise when there is a mismatch between peoples’ perception concerning money and happiness on the one hand and development and damages on the other. Policy and decision-makers should strive to resolve at least the majority of conflicts that arise throughout the lifecycle of major PIC projects so as to maximise their chance of success.

The uses of multilingualism in digital culture : the case of inter-language linking

Language-use has proven to be the most complex and complicating of all Internet features, yet people and institutions invest enormously in language and crosslanguage features because they are fundamental to the success of the Internet’s past, present and future. The thesis takes into focus the developments of the latter – features that facilitate and signify linking between or across languages – both in their historical and current contexts. In the theoretical analysis, the conceptual platform of inter-language linking is developed to both accommodate efforts towards a new social complexity model for the co-evolution of languages and language content, as well as to create an open analytical space for language and cross-language related features of the Internet and beyond. The practiced uses of inter-language linking have changed over the last decades. Before and during the first years of the WWW, mechanisms of inter-language linking were at best important elements used to create new institutional or content arrangements, but on a large scale they were just insignificant. This has changed with the emergence of the WWW and its development into a web in which content in different languages co-evolve. The thesis traces the inter-language linking mechanisms that facilitated these dynamic changes by analysing what these linking mechanisms are, how their historical as well as current contexts can be understood and what kinds of cultural-economic innovation they enable and impede. The study discusses this alongside four empirical cases of bilingual or multilingual media use, ranging from television and web services for languages of smaller populations, to large-scale, multiple languages involving web ventures by the British Broadcasting Corporation, the Special Broadcasting Service Australia, Wikipedia and Google. To sum up, the thesis introduces the concepts of ‘inter-language linking’ and the ‘lateral web’ to model the social complexity and co-evolution of languages online. The resulting model reconsiders existing social complexity models in that it is the first that can explain the emergence of large-scale, networked co-evolution of languages and language content facilitated by the Internet and the WWW. Finally, the thesis argues that the Internet enables an open space for language and crosslanguage related features and investigates how far this process is facilitated by (1) amateurs and (2) human-algorithmic interaction cultures.

A requirements framework for semantic business process modelling

The emergence of semantic technologies to deal with the underlying meaning of things, instead of a purely syntactical representation, has led to new developments in various fields, including business process modeling. Inspired by artificial intelligence research, technologies for semantic Web services have been proposed and extended to process modeling. However, the applicablility of semantic Web services for semantic business processes is limited because business processes encompass wider requirements of business than Web services. In particular, processes are concerned with the composition of tasks, that is, in which order activities are carried out, regardless of their implementation details; resources assigned to carry out tasks, such as machinery, people, and goods; data exchange; and security and compliance concerns.