Proceedings of the inaugural construction management and economics ‘Past, Present and Future’ conference CME25, 16-18 July 2007, University of Reading, UK

This conference was an unusual and interesting event. Celebrating 25 years of Construction Management and Economics provides us with an opportunity to reflect on the research that has been reported over the years, to consider where we are now, and to think about the future of academic research in this area. Hence the sub-title of this conference: “past, present and future”. Looking through these papers, some things are clear. First, the range of topics considered interesting has expanded hugely since the journal was first published. Second, the research methods are also more diverse. Third, the involvement of wider groups of stakeholder is evident. There is a danger that this might lead to dilution of the field. But my instinct has always been to argue against the notion that Construction Management and Economics represents a discipline, as such. Granted, there are plenty of university departments around the world that would justify the idea of a discipline. But the vast majority of academic departments who contribute to the life of this journal carry different names to this. Indeed, the range and breadth of methodological approaches to the research reported in Construction Management and Economics indicates that there are several different academic disciplines being brought to bear on the construction sector. Some papers are based on economics, some on psychology and others on operational research, sociology, law, statistics, information technology, and so on. This is why I maintain that construction management is not an academic discipline, but a field of study to which a range of academic disciplines are applied. This may be why it is so interesting to be involved in this journal. The problems to which the papers are applied develop and grow. But the broad topics of the earliest papers in the journal are still relevant today. What has changed a lot is our interpretation of the problems that confront the construction sector all over the world, and the methodological approaches to resolving them. There is a constant difficulty in dealing with topics as inherently practical as these. While the demands of the academic world are driven by the need for the rigorous application of sound methods, the demands of the practical world are quite different. It can be difficult to meet the needs of both sets of stakeholders at the same time. However, increasing numbers of postgraduate courses in our area result in larger numbers of practitioners with a deeper appreciation of what research is all about, and how to interpret and apply the lessons from research. It also seems that there are contributions coming not just from construction-related university departments, but also from departments with identifiable methodological traditions of their own. I like to think that our authors can publish in journals beyond the construction-related areas, to disseminate their theoretical insights into other disciplines, and to contribute to the strength of this journal by citing our articles in more mono-disciplinary journals. This would contribute to the future of the journal in a very strong and developmental way. The greatest danger we face is in excessive self-citation, i.e. referring only to sources within the CM&E literature or, worse, referring only to other articles in the same journal. The only way to ensure a strong and influential position for journals and university departments like ours is to be sure that our work is informing other academic disciplines. This is what I would see as the future, our logical next step. If, as a community of researchers, we are not producing papers that challenge and inform the fundamentals of research methods and analytical processes, then no matter how practically relevant our output is to the industry, it will remain derivative and secondary, based on the methodological insights of others. The balancing act between methodological rigour and practical relevance is a difficult one, but not, of course, a balance that has to be struck in every single paper.

An effective approach for selection of terrain modelling method

This letter presents an effective approach for selection of appropriate terrain modeling methods in forming a digital elevation model (DEM). This approach achieves a balance between modeling accuracy and modeling speed. A terrain complexity index is defined to represent a terrain's complexity. A support vector machine (SVM) classifies terrain surfaces into either complex or moderate based on this index associated with the terrain elevation range. The classification result recommends a terrain modeling method for a given data set in accordance with its required modeling accuracy. Sample terrain data from the lunar surface are used in constructing an experimental data set. The results have shown that the terrain complexity index properly reflects the terrain complexity, and the SVM classifier derived from both the terrain complexity index and the terrain elevation range is more effective and generic than that designed from either the terrain complexity index or the terrain elevation range only. The statistical results have shown that the average classification accuracy of SVMs is about 84.3% ± 0.9% for terrain types (complex or moderate). For various ratios of complex and moderate terrain types in a selected data set, the DEM modeling speed increases up to 19.5% with given DEM accuracy.

Effects of soil conditions and drought on egg hatching and larval survival of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus)

Soil-dwelling insect herbivores are significant pests in many managed ecosystems. Because eggs and larvae are difficult to observe, mathematical models have been developed to predict life-cycle events occurring in the soil. To date, these models have incorporated very little empirical information about how soil and drought conditions interact to shape these processes. This study investigated how soil temperature (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C), water content (0.02 (air dried), 0.10 and 0.25 g g−1) and pH (5, 7 and 9) interactively affected egg hatching and early larval lifespan of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus Gyllenhal, Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Eggs developed over 3.5 times faster at 25 °C compared with 10 °C (hatching after 40.1 and 11.5 days, respectively). The effect of drought on S. lepidus eggs was investigated by exposing eggs to drought conditions before wetting the soil (2–12 days later) at four temperatures. No eggs hatched in dry soil, suggesting that S. lepidus eggs require water to remain viable. Eggs hatched significantly sooner in slightly acidic soil (pH 5) compared with soils with higher pH values. There was also a significant interaction between soil temperature, pH and soil water content. Egg viability was significantly reduced by exposure to drought. When exposed to 2–6 days of drought, egg viability was 80–100% at all temperatures but fell to 50% after 12 days exposure at 10 °C and did not hatch at all at 20 °C and above. Drought exposure also increased hatching time of viable eggs. The effects of soil conditions on unfed larvae were less influential, except for soil temperature which significantly reduced larval longevity by 57% when reared at 25 °C compared with 10 °C (4.1 and 9.7 days, respectively). The effects of soil conditions on S. lepidus eggs and larvae are discussed in the context of global climate change and how such empirically based information could be useful for refining existing mathematical models of these processes.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Model simulations and aircraft measurements of vertical, seasonal and latitudinal O3 and CO distributions over Europe

During a series of 8 measurement campaigns within the SPURT project (2001-2003), vertical profiles of CO and O3 have been obtained at subtropical, middle and high latitudes over western Europe, covering the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere up to ~14 km altitude during all seasons. The seasonal and latitudinal variation of the measured trace gas profiles are compared to simulations with the chemical transport model MATCH. In the troposphere reasonable agreement between observations and model predictions is achieved for CO and O3, in particular at subtropical and mid-latitudes, while the model overestimates (underestimates) CO (O3 in the lowermost stratosphere particularly at high latitudes, indicating too strong simulated bi-directional exchange across the tropopause. By the use of tagged tracers in the model, long-range transport of Asian air masses is identified as the dominant source of CO pollution over Europe in the free troposphere.

Interpersonal interaction and economic theory: the case of public goods

Interpersonal interaction in public goods contexts is very different in character to its depiction in economic theory, despite the fact that the standard model is based on a small number of apparently plausible assumptions. Approaches to the problem are reviewed both from within and outside economics. It is argued that quick fixes such as a taste for giving do not provide a way forward. An improved understanding of why people contribute to such goods seems to require a different picture of the relationships between individuals than obtains in standard microeconomic theory, where they are usually depicted as asocial. No single economic model at present is consistent with all the relevant field and laboratory data. It is argued that there are defensible ideas from outside the discipline which ought to be explored, relying on different conceptions of rationality and/or more radically social agents. Three such suggestions are considered, one concerning the expressive/communicative aspect of behaviour, a second the possibility of a part-whole relationship between interacting agents and the third a version of conformism.

Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s

During the 1990s there was a major change in the state of the world's oceans. In particular, the North Atlantic underwent a rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subpolar gyre region increasing by 1°C in just a few years. Associated with the changes in SST patterns were changes in the surface climate, in particular, a tendency for warm and dry conditions over areas of North America in all seasons, and warm springs and wet summers over areas of Europe. Here, the extent to which a climate prediction system initialized using observations of the ocean state is able to capture the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate is investigated. Rather than examining predictions of the mid-1990s North Atlantic warming event itself, this study compares hindcasts started before and after the warming, relative to hindcasts that do not assimilate information. It is demonstrated that the hindcasts capture many aspects of the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate, especially in North, South, and Central America and in Europe. Furthermore, the prediction system retains skill beyond the first year. Finally, it is shown that, in addition to memory of Atlantic SSTs, successfully predicting Pacific SSTs was likely important for the hindcasts to predict surface climate over North America.

Palm oil, land rights and ecosystem services in Gbarpolu County, Liberia

As part of the rebuilding efforts following the long civil war, the Liberian government has renegotiated long-term contracts with international investors to exploit natural resources. Substantial areas of land have been handed out in large-scale concessions across Liberia during the last five years. While this may promote economic growth at the national level, such concessions are likely to have major environmental, social and economic impacts on local communities, who may not have been consulted on the proposed developments. This report examines the potential socio-economic and environmental impacts of a proposed large-scale oil palm concession in Bopolu District, Gbarpolu County in Liberia. The research provided an in-depth mapping of current resource use, livelihoods and ecosystems services, in addition to analysis of community consultation and perceptions of the potential impacts of the proposed development. This case study of a palm oil concession in Liberia highlights wider policy considerations regarding large-scale land acquisitions in the global South: • Formal mechanisms may be needed to ensure the process of Free, Prior, Informed Consent takes place effectively with affected communities and community land rights are safeguarded. • Rigorous Environmental and Social Impact Assessments need to be conducted before operations start. Accurate mapping of customary land rights, community resources and cultural sites, livelihoods, land use, biodiversity and ecosystems services is a critical tool in this process. • Greater clarity and awareness-raising of land tenure laws and policies is needed at all levels. Good governance and capacity-building of key institutions would help to ensure effective implementation of relevant laws and policies. • Efforts are needed to improve basic services and infrastructure in rural communities and invest in food crop cultivation in order to enhance food security and poverty alleviation. Increasing access to inputs, equipment, training and advice is especially important if male and female farmers are no longer able to practice shifting cultivation due to the reduction/ loss of customary land and the need to farm more intensively on smaller areas of land.

Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Effect of aluminium on migratory and invasive properties of MCF-7 human breast cancer cells in culture

Aluminium (Al) has been measured in human breast tissue, nipple aspirate fluid and breast cyst fluid, and recent studies have shown that at tissue concentrations, aluminium can induce DNA damage and suspension growth in human breast epithelial cells. This paper demonstrates for the first time that exposure to aluminium can also increase migratory and invasive properties of MCF-7 human breast cancer cells. Long-term (32 weeks) but not short-term (1 week) exposure of MCF-7 cells to 10-4M aluminium chloride or 10-4M aluminium chlorohydrate increased motility of the cells as measured by live cell imaging (cumulative length moved by individual cells), by a wound healing assay and by migration in real time through 8m pores of a membrane using xCELLigence technology. Long-term exposure (37weeks) to 10-4M aluminium chloride or 10-4M aluminium chlorohydrate also increased the ability of MCF-7 cells to invade through a matrigel layer as measured in real time using the xCELLigence system. Although molecular mechanisms remain to be characterized, the ability of aluminium salts to increase migratory and invasive properties of MCF-7 cells suggests that the presence of aluminium in the human breast could influence metastatic processes. This is important because mortality from breast cancer arises mainly from tumour spread rather than from the presence of a primary tumour in the breast.

Mixed use urban regeneration at Brindleyplace, Birmingham and Gunwharf Quays, Portsmouth: an assessment of the impact on local and national economies

This independent research was commissioned by the British Property Federation. The report examines the local and national economic impact of two major, mixed use schemes in terms of tax revenue, household income, business rates and council tax and jobs creation. A regeneration balance sheet for each scheme is presented in the context of government policy and other related research. The report provides a comprehensive review of government policy and the role of retail and other land uses in regeneration. Highlighting the importance of national and local multiplier effects with detailed statistics drawn from a variety of sources, this fully illustrated colour research report builds up a detailed picture of economic impact of the mixed use regeneration schemes in the local economies of Birmingham and Portsmouth. The report will be of interest to property people, planners and all involved in regeneration and local economies.

Use of virulence determinants and seropathotypes to distinguish high- and low-risk Escherichia coli O157 and non-O157 isolates from Europe

The presence of 10 virulence genes was examined using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in 365 European O157 and non-O157 Escherichia coli isolates associated with verotoxin production. Strain-specific PCR data were analysed using hierarchical clustering. The resulting dendrogram clearly separated O157 from non-O157 strains. The former clustered typical high-risk seropathotype (SPT) A strains from all regions, including Sweden and Spain, which were homogenous by Cramer's V statistic, and strains with less typical O157 features mostly from Hungary. The non-O157 strains divided into a high-risk SPTB harbouring O26, O111 and O103 strains, a group pathogenic to pigs, and a group with few virulence genes other than for verotoxin. The data demonstrate SPT designation and selected PCR separated verotoxigenic E. coli of high and low risk to humans; although more virulence genes or pulsed-field gel electrophoresis will need to be included to separate high-risk strains further for epidemiological tracing.

Transreal limits expose category errors in IEEE 754 floating-point arithmetic and in mathematics

The IEEE 754 standard for oating-point arithmetic is widely used in computing. It is based on real arithmetic and is made total by adding both a positive and a negative infinity, a negative zero, and many Not-a-Number (NaN) states. The IEEE infinities are said to have the behaviour of limits. Transreal arithmetic is total. It also has a positive and a negative infinity but no negative zero, and it has a single, unordered number, nullity. We elucidate the transreal tangent and extend real limits to transreal limits. Arguing from this firm foundation, we maintain that there are three category errors in the IEEE 754 standard. Firstly the claim that IEEE infinities are limits of real arithmetic confuses limiting processes with arithmetic. Secondly a defence of IEEE negative zero confuses the limit of a function with the value of a function. Thirdly the definition of IEEE NaNs confuses undefined with unordered. Furthermore we prove that the tangent function, with the infinities given by geometrical con- struction, has a period of an entire rotation, not half a rotation as is commonly understood. This illustrates a category error, confusing the limit with the value of a function, in an important area of applied mathe- matics { trigonometry. We brie y consider the wider implications of this category error. Another paper proposes transreal arithmetic as a basis for floating- point arithmetic; here we take the profound step of proposing transreal arithmetic as a replacement for real arithmetic to remove the possibility of certain category errors in mathematics. Thus we propose both theo- retical and practical advantages of transmathematics. In particular we argue that implementing transreal analysis in trans- floating-point arith- metic would extend the coverage, accuracy and reliability of almost all computer programs that exploit real analysis { essentially all programs in science and engineering and many in finance, medicine and other socially beneficial applications.

Progress report on longitudinal and cross-sectional study of carbon disclosure strategies: evidence from UK listed companies

Global warming has attracted attention from all over the world and led to the concern about carbon emission. Kyoto Protocol, as the first major international regulatory emission trading scheme, was introduced in 1997 and outlined the strategies for reducing carbon emission (Ratnatunga et al., 2011). As the increased interest in carbon reduction the Protocol came into force in 2005, currently there are already 191 nations ratifying the Protocol(UNFCCC, 2012). Under the cap-and-trade schemes, each company has its carbon emission target. When company’s carbon emission exceeds the target the company will either face fines or buy emission allowance from other companies. Thus unlike most of the other social and environmental issues carbon emission could trigger cost for companies in introducing low-emission equipment and systems and also emission allowance cost when they emit more than their targets. Despite the importance of carbon emission to companies, carbon emission reporting is still operating under unregulated environment and companies are only required to disclose when it is material either in value or in substances (Miller, 2005, Deegan and Rankin, 1997). Even though there is still an increase in the volume of carbon emission disclosures in company’s financial reports and stand-alone social and environmental reports to show their concern of the environment and also their social responsibility (Peters and Romi, 2009), the motivations behind corporate carbon emission disclosures and whether carbon disclosures have impact on corporate environmental reputation and financial performance have not yet to explore. The problems with carbon emission lie on both the financial side and non-financial side of corporate governance. On one hand corporate needs to spend money in reducing carbon emission or paying penalties when they emit more than allowed. On the other hand as the public are more interested in environmental issues than before carbon emission could also impact on the image of corporate regarding to its environmental performance. The importance of carbon emission issue are beginning to be recognized by companies from different industries as one of the critical issues in supply chain management (Lee, 2011) and 80% of companies analysed are facing carbon risks resulting from emissions in the companies’ supply chain as shown in a study conducted by the Investor Responsibility Research Centre Institute for Corporate Responsibility (IRRCI) and over 80% of the companies analysed found that the majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission are from electricity and other direct suppliers (Trucost, 2009). The review of extant literature shows the increased importance of carbon emission issues and the gap in the study of carbon reporting and disclosures and also the study which links corporate environmental reputation and corporate financial performance with carbon reporting (Lohmann, 2009a, Ratnatunga and Balachandran, 2009, Bebbington and Larrinaga-Gonzalez, 2008). This study would focus on investigating the current status of UK carbon emission disclosures, the determinant factors of corporate carbon disclosure, and the relationship between carbon emission disclosures and corporate environmental reputation and financial performance of UK listed companies from 2004-2012 and explore the explanatory power of classical disclosure theories.

Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5

Using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. Upon CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m−2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. The authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m−2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m−2 K−1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m−2 K−1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.