Climate change impacts on sea–air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas: a sensitivity study using Earth observation

We applied coincident Earth observation data collected during 2008 and 2009 from multiple sensors (RA2, AATSR and MERIS, mounted on the European Space Agency satellite Envisat) to characterise environmental conditions and integrated sea-air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas (Greenland, Barents, Kara). We assessed net CO2 sink sensitivity due to changes in temperature, salinity and sea ice duration arising from future climate scenarios. During the study period the Greenland and Barents seas were net sinks for atmospheric CO2, with integrated sea-air fluxes of -36 +/- 14 and -11 +/- 5 Tg C yr(-1), respectively, and the Kara Sea was a weak net CO2 source with an integrated sea-air flux of +2.2 +/- 1.4 TgC yr(-1). The combined integrated CO2 sea-air flux from all three was -45 +/- 18 TgC yr(-1). In a sensitivity analysis we varied temperature, salinity and sea ice duration. Variations in temperature and salinity led to modification of the transfer velocity, solubility and partial pressure of CO2 taking into account the resultant variations in alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Our results showed that warming had a strong positive effect on the annual integrated sea-air flux of CO2 (i.e. reducing the sink), freshening had a strong negative effect and reduced sea ice duration had a small but measurable positive effect. In the climate change scenario examined, the effects of warming in just over a decade of climate change up to 2020 outweighed the combined effects of freshening and reduced sea ice duration. Collectively these effects gave an integrated sea-air flux change of +4.0 TgC in the Greenland Sea, +6.0 Tg C in the Barents Sea and +1.7 Tg C in the Kara Sea, reducing the Greenland and Barents sinks by 11% and 53 %, respectively, and increasing the weak Kara Sea source by 81 %. Overall, the regional integrated flux changed by +11.7 Tg C, which is a 26% reduction in the regional sink. In terms of CO2 sink strength, we conclude that the Barents Sea is the most susceptible of the three regions to the climate changes examined. Our results imply that the region will cease to be a net CO2 sink in the 2050s.

Decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic water inflow in the North Sea between 1958-2003: impacts on temperature and phytoplankton populations

The circulation of Atlantic water along the European continental slope, in particular the inflow into the North Sea, influences North Sea water characteristics with consequent changes in the environment affecting plankton community dynamics. The long-term effect of fluctuating oceanographic conditions oil the North Sea, pelagic ecosystem is assessed. It is shown that (i) there are similar regime shifts in the inflow through the northern North Sea and in Sea, Surface Temperature, (ii) long-term phytoplankton trends are influenced by the inflow only in some North Sea regions, and (iii) the spatial variability in chemicophysical and biological parameters highlight the influence of smaller scale processes.

Using the Continuous Plankton Recorder to investigate the absence of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) from the Roseway Basin foraging ground

North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) were absent from Roseway Basin, located off southeastern Nova Scotia, for a 7-year period (1993–1999). The objective of this study was to examine the availability of the right whale's main prey, Calanus finmarchicus, in Roseway Basin during those 7 years to determine if the whales’ absence was due to inadequate prey resources. Since we had no historical data on zooplankton abundances at depth on the Scotian Shelf, near-surface zooplankton abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder were used to infer water-column abundances. In addition, environmental parameters that are often correlated with high zooplankton concentrations were examined. The hypotheses tested were that changes in these parameters would be detectable between three time periods: pre-1993, 1993–1999 and post-1999. Calanus finmarchicus abundance was found to be lowest during 1993–1999, suggesting that right whales were not foraging in Roseway Basin because of the near-absence of their main prey species. Decreased in situ salinity and density proved to be indicators of the changes in circulation in the 1990s that may have affected the advection of C. finmarchicus onto the Scotian Shelf.