Measuring science: An exploration

This paper examines the available United States data on academic research and development (R&D) expenditures and the number of papers published and the number of citations to these papers as possible measures of “output” of this enterprise. We look at these numbers for science and engineering as a whole, for five selected major fields, and at the individual university field level. The published data in Science and Engineering Indicators imply sharply diminishing returns to academic R&D using published papers as an “output” measure. These data are quite problematic. Using a newer set of data on papers and citations, based on an “expanding” set of journals and the newly released Bureau of Economic Analysis R&D deflators, changes the picture drastically, eliminating the appearance of diminishing returns but raising the question of why the input prices of academic R&D are rising so much faster than either the gross domestic product deflator or the implicit R&D deflator in industry. A production function analysis of such data at the individual field level follows. It indicates significant diminishing returns to “own” R&D, with the R&D coefficients hovering around 0.5 for estimates with paper numbers as the dependent variable and around 0.6 if total citations are used as the dependent variable. When we substitute scientists and engineers in place of R&D as the right-hand side variables, the coefficient on papers rises from 0.5 to 0.8, and the coefficient on citations rises from 0.6 to 0.9, indicating systematic measurement problems with R&D as the sole input into the production of scientific output. But allowing for individual university field effects drives these numbers down significantly below unity. Because in the aggregate both paper numbers and citations are growing as fast or faster than R&D, this finding can be interpreted as leaving a major, yet unmeasured, role for the contribution of spillovers from other fields, other universities, and other countries.

The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century

The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990–2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990–2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990—a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little—perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960–1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world’s farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact.

The temporal lobe is a target of output from the basal ganglia.

The basal ganglia are known to receive inputs from widespread regions of the cerebral cortex, such as the frontal, parietal, and temporal lobes. Of these cortical areas, only the frontal lobe is thought to be the target of basal ganglia output. One of the cortical regions that is a source of input to the basal ganglia is area TE, in inferotemporal cortex. This cortical area is thought to be critically involved in the recognition and discrimination of visual objects. Using retrograde transneuronal transport of herpes simplex virus type 1, we have found that one of the output nuclei of the basal ganglia, the substantia nigra pars reticulata, projects via the thalamus to TE. Thus, TE is not only a source of input to the basal ganglia, but also is a target of basal ganglia output. This result implies that the output of the basal ganglia influences higher order aspects of visual processing. In addition, we propose that dysfunction of the basal ganglia loop with TE leads to alterations in visual perception, including visual hallucinations.

Ciliary neurotrophic factor protects striatal output neurons in an animal model of Huntington disease.

Huntington disease is a dominantly inherited, untreatable neurological disorder featuring a progressive loss of striatal output neurons that results in dyskinesia, cognitive decline, and, ultimately, death. Neurotrophic factors have recently been shown to be protective in several animal models of neurodegenerative disease, raising the possibility that such substances might also sustain the survival of compromised striatal output neurons. We determined whether intracerebral administration of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, nerve growth factor, neurotrophin-3, or ciliary neurotrophic factor could protect striatal output neurons in a rodent model of Huntington disease. Whereas treatment with brain-derived neurotrophic factor, nerve growth factor, or neurotrophin-3 provided no protection of striatal output neurons from death induced by intrastriatal injection of quinolinic acid, an N-methyl-D-aspartate glutamate receptor agonist, treatment with ciliary neurotrophic factor afforded marked protection against this neurodegenerative insult.

Choques de oferta e política monetária na economia brasileira: Uma análise do impacto dos preços das commodities na inflação entre 2002 e 2014

Há mais de uma década o controle dos níveis de preço na economia brasileira é realizado dentro do escopo do Regime de Metas de Inflação, que utiliza modelos macroeconômicos como instrumentos para guiar as tomadas de decisões sobre política monetária. Após um período de relativo êxito (2006 - 2009), nos últimos anos apesar dos esforços das autoridades monetárias na aplicação das políticas de contenção da inflação, seguindo os mandamentos do regime de metas, esta tem se mostrado resistente, provocando um debate em torno de fatores que podem estar ocasionando tal comportamento. Na literatura internacional, alguns trabalhos têm creditado aos choques de oferta, especialmente aos desencadeados pela variação dos preços das commodities, uma participação significativa na inflação, principalmente em economias onde os produtos primários figuram como maioria na pauta exportadora. Na literatura nacional, já existem alguns trabalhos que apontam nesta mesma direção. Sendo assim, buscou-se, como objetivo principal para o presente estudo, avaliar como os choques de oferta, mais especificamente os choques originados pelos preços das commodities, têm impactado na inflação brasileira e como e com que eficiência a política monetária do país tem reagido. Para tanto, foi estimado um modelo semiestrutural contendo uma curva de Phillips, uma curva IS e duas versões da Função de Reação do Banco Central, de modo a verificar como as decisões de política monetária são tomadas. O método de estimação empregado foi o de Autorregressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro (VEC) na sua versão estrutural, que permite uma avaliação dinâmica das relações de interdependência entre as variáveis do modelo proposto. Por meio da estimação da curva de Phillips foi possível observar que os choques de oferta, tanto das commodities como da produtividade do trabalho e do câmbio, não impactam a inflação imediatamente, porém sua relevância é crescente ao longo do tempo chegando a prevalecer sobre o efeito autorregressivo (indexação) verificado. Estes choques também se apresentaram importantes para o comportamento da expectativa de inflação, produzindo assim, uma indicação de que seus impactos tendem a se espalhar pelos demais setores da economia. Através dos resultados da curva IS constatou-se a forte inter-relação entre o hiato do produto e a taxa de juros, o que indica que a política monetária, por meio da fixação de tal taxa, influencia fortemente a demanda agregada. Já por meio da estimação da primeira função de reação, foi possível perceber que há uma relação contemporânea relevante entre o desvio da expectativa de inflação em relação à meta e a taxa Selic, ao passo que a relação contemporânea do hiato do produto sobre a taxa Selic se mostrou pequena. Por fim, os resultados obtidos com a segunda função de reação, confirmaram que as autoridades monetárias reagem mais fortemente aos sinais inflacionários da economia do que às movimentações que acontecem na atividade econômica e mostraram que uma elevação nos preços das commodities, em si, não provoca diretamente um aumento na taxa básica de juros da economia.

Classifying image analysis techniques from their output

In this paper we discuss some main image processing techniques in order to propose a classification based upon the output these methods provide. Because despite a particular image analysis technique can be supervised or unsupervised, and can allow or not the existence of fuzzy information at some stage, each technique has been usually designed to focus on a specific objective, and their outputs are in fact different according to each objective. Thus, they are in fact different methods. But due to the essential relationship between them they are quite often confused. In particular, this paper pursues a clarification of the differences between image segmentation and edge detection, among other image processing techniques.

Influence of habitat on nest location and reproductive output of Montagu’s Harriers breeding in natural vegetation

We examined distribution and breeding success of semi-colonial Montagu’s Harriers (Circus pygargus) in relation to habitat in Castellón province (eastern Spain). Breeding areas used by harriers at a 1-km2 scale were characterised by having intermediate percentages of scrub cover, their nesting habitat, and also had intermediate coverage of herbaceous crops and non-irrigated orchards. Out of all habitat variables considered, only the percentage of herbaceous crops within 500 m from individual nests had a positive and significant effect on breeding output of the species, suggesting that this habitat may be efficiently used by harriers to forage. Breeding output was also related to laying date and number of breeding neighbours within 500 m around nests, with pairs laying later and having a higher number of breeding neighbours showing lower fledged brood sizes. Number of neighbours (but not laying date) was positively related to scrub cover within 500 m and to cover of herbaceous crops within 2,000 m. Conservation actions for Montagu’s Harrier in the study area should be aimed at preserving areas of scrub with nearby presence of herbaceous crops or natural grasslands. However, habitat improvement for semi-colonial species such as Montagu’s Harrier may not result in a change of species distribution area, and good habitat areas may remain unoccupied, as social factors like presence of conspecifics play an important role in breeding area selection for these species.

A Matrix PRNG with S-Box Output Filtering

We describe a modification to a previously published pseudorandom number generator improving security while maintaining high performance. The proposed generator is based on the powers of a word-packed block upper triangular matrix and it is designed to be fast and easy to implement in software since it mainly involves bitwise operations between machine registers and, in our tests, it presents excellent security and statistical characteristics. The modifications include a new, key-derived s-box based nonlinear output filter and improved seeding and extraction mechanisms. This output filter can also be applied to other generators.

Fire behaviour of lightweight concrete units based on corn cob aggregate

Recent research works have concluded that corn cob may have interesting material properties, in particular, lightness, and thermal and sound insulation abilities. In this research work, corn cob is proposed as an alternative sustainable aggregate for lightweight concrete masonry unit (CMU) manufacturing. The corn cob requires to be granulated previously in order to obtain adequate particle size grade. Subsequently, the particles are wrapped in a cement paste with the purpose of reducing their water abortion and adherent capacities. CMU are current applied in the building of partition walls. The main goal of this research work consists on studying the fire behaviour of partition walls built with CMU of processed corn cob granulate (CMU-PCC).