Living with uncertainty in the age of runtime models

Uncertainty can be defined as the difference between information that is represented in an executing system and the information that is both measurable and available about the system at a certain point in its life-time. A software system can be exposed to multiple sources of uncertainty produced by, for example, ambiguous requirements and unpredictable execution environments. A runtime model is a dynamic knowledge base that abstracts useful information about the system, its operational context and the extent to which the system meets its stakeholders' needs. A software system can successfully operate in multiple dynamic contexts by using runtime models that augment information available at design-time with information monitored at runtime. This chapter explores the role of runtime models as a means to cope with uncertainty. To this end, we introduce a well-suited terminology about models, runtime models and uncertainty and present a state-of-the-art summary on model-based techniques for addressing uncertainty both at development- and runtime. Using a case study about robot systems we discuss how current techniques and the MAPE-K loop can be used together to tackle uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose possible extensions of the MAPE-K loop architecture with runtime models to further handle uncertainty at runtime. The chapter concludes by identifying key challenges, and enabling technologies for using runtime models to address uncertainty, and also identifies closely related research communities that can foster ideas for resolving the challenges raised. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.

Heterodox gazdaságpolitikák korszaka? (An Age of Heterodox Economic Policies?)

A világ fejlett pénzügyi piacainak válságát követően önvizsgálatra kényszerült a közgazdaságtudomány, amelyet nemcsak az alternatív és heterodox irányzatok képviselői, a média és a nagyközönség, hanem a gazdasági döntéshozók részéről is erős kritikák értek. Egyidejűleg gyors változásokon ment át a gazdaságpolitikai gyakorlat, különösen a válság által erősen érintett országokban, megszaporodtak a korábbi mérvadó kormányzati gyakorlat (best practice) ajánlásaitól távol álló, nem szokványos megoldások, heterodox politikák. Az esszé szerzője meghatározó személyiségek véleményének, vezető intézmények álláspontjának és kormányzati gazdaságpolitikáknak az áttekintése alapján egyfelől azt a kérdést vizsgálja, hogy körvonalazódik-e új gazdaságelméleti irányzat, amely doktrinális alapul szolgálhatna a gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatalhoz, másodsorban pedig: átmeneti jelenség-e az egymástól alapvetően különböző felfogású, logikájú gazdaságpolitikák egyidejű megléte, avagy várható-e egy új konszenzus kialakulása. ______ In the wake of the recent financial turmoil emanating from top financial centers, the economic profession has been forced to conduct introspection due to harsh criticism from alternative and heterodox economists, the media, and the general public as well as from decision makers. Meanwhile, the economic policy making practice has profoundly changed, particularly in countries heavily affected in the crisis; decision makers increasingly apply non customary (heterodox) measures in defiance of former best practice of economic policy making. The author of this essay, having investigated the related views of leading economists and influential international institutions and having reviewed economic policy making practice, raises two questions. One: is there a new economic theory evolving that will provide doctrinal underpinning to post crisis economic policy making? Second: is the simultaneity of widely differing economic policy practices and policy orientations a transitional phenomenon, or are there signs of a new policy consensus emerging? It may be too early to give argued answers to the questions, but the present – rather technical – economic theory mainstream seems to maintain its central position, yet is becomes more open to research topics and methods acknowledging the complexity of economic processes and social institutions, and to impulses emanating from economic practice. As for economic policy making is concerned, continuous decline of the economic importance of leading Western nations prolongs the period of heterogeneity of non conventional, heterodox policies both in advanced and in emerging countries until new policy norms, a “new normal” emerges.

Eden in the age of the fifth sun: The narrative work of Homero Aridjis

Homero Aridjis (b. 1940) is a major Mexican poet, novelist, essayist and ecological activist whose prolific body of work, ranging over forty years and including more than eleven volumes of poetry and thirteen novels, has yet to be studied as a coherent literary corpus in the context of recent Latin American fiction. The purpose of this dissertation was to analyze the narrative works of this author as both illustrative of the changes that have occurred in Latin American fiction since the 1960s when it first burst onto the world scene, as well as to study the uniqueness of this particular author's view of literature as it relates to historical discourse, apocalypticism. and social commitment. ^ Research showed that in the case of the narrative style of Aridjis, major trends in the contemporary Latin American novel were present in such a profuse and model manner as to confirm this author's importance as a prime example of what is commonly known as “Post-Boom” fiction. However, beyond the mere presence of literary elements, this study showed that the author's unique approach to narrative style has altered and expanded the aesthetic and thematic possibilities of the contemporary novel. The area where this is most clearly seen is in his experimentation with the historical genre. By manipulating the referential techniques of what has lately come to be known as the “new historical novel,” Aridjis has written both a cycle of purely historical novels and a cycle of futuristic ones that attempt to transcend the temporal limits traditionally imposed by these narrative forms, fusing them into one constant questioning of the nature of love, hate and identity. In this manner, he has developed a “simultaneist” narrative approach where distinct historical and imagined periods, places, people, things, and texts coexist and interact, widening almost to delirium the interpretative possibilities of the work. ^ This unique view of time and narrative, together with the author's political activism and millenarian view of history, make the novels of Homero Aridjis an important element in understanding the continuing development and evolution of Latin American fiction at the turn of the century. ^

Left behind: A farmer's fate in the age of sustainable development

Globalization is eroding the livelihoods of small farmers, a significant and vulnerable class, particularly in the developing world. The cost-price squeeze stemming from trade liberalization places farmers in a race to the bottom that leads to displacement, poverty, and environmental degradation. Scholars and activists have proposed that alternative trade initiatives offer a unique opportunity to reverse this trend by harnessing the power of the markets to reward producers of goods with embedded superior cultural, environmental, and social values. Alternative trade via certification schemes have become a de facto prescription for any location where there is a need to conciliate economic interest with conservation imperatives. Partnerships among commodity production farmers, elite manufacturers and wealthy northern consumers/activists do not necessarily have win-win outcomes. Paradoxically, the partnerships of farmers with external agencies have unexpected results. These partnerships develop into dependent relationships that become unsustainable in the absence of further transfers of capital. The institutions born of these partnerships are fragile. When these fledging institutions fail, farmers are left in the same situation that they were before the partnership, with only minor improvements to show after spending considerable amounts of social and financial capital. I hypothesize that these failures are born out of a belief in a universal understanding of sustainability. A discursive emphasis on consensus, equity and mutual benefit hides the fact that what for consumers it is a matter of choice, for producers is a matter of survival. The growth in consumers’ demand for certified products creates a race for farmers to meet these standards. My findings suggest that this race generates economically perverse effects. First, producers enter into a certification treadmill. Second, the local need for economic sustainability is ignored. Third, commodity based alternative trade schemes increase the exposure of communities to global shocks. I conclude by calling for a careful reassessment of sustainable development projects that promote certification schemes. The designers and implementers of these programs must include farmers’ agenda in the planning of these programs.

Diversity and knowledge in the age of nation-building: Space and time in the thought of Yanagita Kunio

The study examines the thought of Yanagita Kunio (1875–1962), an influential Japanese nationalist thinker and a founder of an academic discipline named minzokugaku. The purpose of the study is to bring into light an unredeemed potential of his intellectual and political project as a critique of the way in which modern politics and knowledge systematically suppresses global diversity. The study reads his texts against the backdrop of the modern understanding of space and time and its political and moral implications and traces the historical evolution of his thought that culminates in the establishment of minzokugaku. My reading of Yanagita’s texts draws on three interpretive hypotheses. First, his thought can be interpreted as a critical engagement with John Stuart Mill’s philosophy of history, as he turns Mill’s defense of diversity against Mill’s justification of enlightened despotism in non-Western societies. Second, to counter Mill’s individualistic notion of progressive agency, he turns to a Marxian notion of anthropological space, in which a laboring class makes history by continuously transforming nature, and rehabilitates the common people (jomin) as progressive agents. Third, in addition to the common people, Yanagita integrates wandering people as a countervailing force to the innate parochialism and conservatism of agrarian civilization. To excavate the unrecorded history of ordinary farmers and wandering people and promote the formation of national consciousness, his minzokugaku adopts travel as an alternative method for knowledge production and political education. In light of this interpretation, the aim of Yanagita’s intellectual and political project can be understood as defense and critique of the Enlightenment tradition. Intellectually, he attempts to navigate between spurious universalism and reactionary particularism by revaluing diversity as a necessary condition for universal knowledge and human progress. Politically, his minzokugaku aims at nation-building/globalization from below by tracing back the history of a migratory process cutting across the existing boundaries. His project is opposed to nation-building from above that aims to integrate the world population into international society at the expense of global diversity.

Wage matters & globalization: South Florida's low-wage immigrant plant nursery workers and business protectionism in the age of neoliberalism

Ornamental plant production in the State of Florida is an anomaly with respect to current theories of globalization and particularly their explanation of the employment of low-wage, immigrant labor. Those theories dictate that unskilled jobs that do not need to be performed within highly developed countries are outsourced to where labor is cheaper and more flexible. However, the State of Florida remains an important site of ornamental plant production in the US amidst a global economic environment of outsourcing and transnational corporate expansion. This dissertation relies on 50 semi-structured interviews with insiders of the Florida plant nursery industry, focus groups, and participant observation to explain how US trade, labor, and migration policy-making at local levels are not removed from larger global processes taking place in the world since the 1970s. In Florida, elite market players of the plant nursery industry have been able to resist global trends in free trade, operating instead in a protected market. They have done this by appealing to scientific justifications and through arbitrary implementations of neoliberal ideology that keeps small and middle range business alive, while maintaining a seemingly endless supply of marginalized and exploited low-wage, immigrant workers.^

Empire's children: Soviet childhood in the age of revolution

Ideas of childhood and citizenship stood at the center of the Soviet Union's empire-building project during the 1920s and 1930s. After the 1917 Revolution the Bolsheviks were faced with the challenge of establishing a new state structure and governing a vast territory inherited from its tsarist predecessor. In the early years of the Soviet project, new leaders enlisted a cadre of professionals tasked with not only creating the norms of childhood and the everyday, but also implementing policies to modernize habits and values of the empire's younger citizens. ^ To understand how children became a prime focus of Soviet imperial and ethno-cultural politics, my dissertation employs discourse analysis and compares the ways in which Soviet imperial policies were implemented in two ethnically different regions: the Buddhist Republic of Kalmykia as the colonial case study and Moscow as the Metropole. The current project examines newspapers, treatises, and inspectors' reports over the span of twenty years. It finds that the Bolsheviks' initial values and discourses in the realm of children's education, health, leisure and nutrition, all which were scientifically designed to transform children into ideal Soviet and modern citizens, changed over time as a result of the competing ideologies among local elites and the challenges they faced while intervening in children's everyday lives. ^ The most significant conclusion in this dissertation reveals that, contrary to previous scholarly arguments, the modernization projects that took place in Moscow and Kalmykia were more similar in the challenges and outcomes that local officials faced when implementing state policies.^

Raw X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scannings and radiocarbon age of sediment cores GeoB8331-4, and GeoB8322-2

Variations in the sediment input to the Namaqualand mudbelt during the Holocene are assessed using an integrative terrestrial to marine, source to sink approach. Geochemical and Sr and Nd isotopic signatures are used to distinguish fluvial sediment source areas. Relative to the sediments of the Olifants River, craton outcrops in the northern Orange River catchment have a more radiogenic Sr and a more unradiogenic Nd isotopic signature. Furthermore, upper Orange River sediments are rich in heavier elements such as Ti and Fe derived from the chemical weathering of Drakensberg flood basalt. Suspension load signatures change along the Orange River's westward transit as northern catchments contribute physical weathering products from the Fish and Molopo River catchment area. Marine cores offshore of the Olifants (GeoB8323-2) and Orange (GeoB8331-4) River mouths show pulses of increased contribution of Olifants River and upper Orange River input, respectively. These pulses coincide with intervals of increased terrestrial organic matter flux and increased paleo-production at the respective core sites. We attribute this to an increase in fluvial activity and vegetation cover in the adjacent catchments during more humid climate conditions. The contrast in the timing of these wet phases in the catchment areas reflects the bipolar behavior of the South African summer and winter rainfall zones. While rainfall in the Orange River catchment is related to southward shifts in the ICTZ, rainfall in the Olifants catchment is linked to northward shifts in Southern Hemisphere Westerly storm tracks. The later may also have increased southern Benguela upwelling in the past by reducing the shedding of Agulhas eddies into the Atlantic. The high-resolution records of latitudinal shifts in these atmospheric circulation systems correspond to late Holocene centennial-millennial scale climate variability evident in Antarctic ice core records. The mudbelt cores indicate that phases of high summer rainfall zone and low winter rainfall zone humidity (at ca. 2.8 and 1 ka BP) may be synchronous with Antarctic warming events. On the other hand, dry conditions in the summer rainfall zone along with wet conditions in the winter rainfall zone (at ca 3.3, 2 and 0.5 ka BP) may be associated with Antarctic cooling events.

Radiocarbon age of bottom sediments from the Yenisei Gulf and the Kara Sea

Sedimentation rates and bottom sediment ages were determined by 14C method in the Kara Sea and the Yenisei River marginal filter. Age of carbon supplied by the Yenisei River is estimated to be 6.9 ka. As supplied carbon mixes with young biogenic carbon under influence of plankton and benthos young carbon flux (planktogenic) sharply diminishes. This has been inferred from studies of organic matter in sedimentary traps deployed along sections from the Yenisei River mouth to 76°N. The major part (70-80%) of organic carbon in bottom sediments of the Kara and Laptev Seas is ancient (Holocene). Planktogenic part comprises only 20-30%. In the Central Arctic Basin percentage of planktogenic organic matter in bottom sediments is still lower, the major part being associated with supply of ancient terrigenous organic material of low nutritional value for organisms. Determinations of sedimentation rates and recent matter fluxes from sedimentary traps served as a basis for locating a sedimentary depocenter in the Yenisei River both for present time and for geological past. Regularities of variations of sediment matter fluxes in the marginal filter were studied.

Age of bottom sediments from the South Atlantic Rise as indicated by 14C data for stations of R/V Professor Shtokman

Sedimentation of pelagic biogenic coccolithic-foraminiferal sediments predominates in the section of the South Atlantic ridge between 20° and 30°S. Sedimentation rate and thickness of Late Quaternary sediments differ in the rift valley, the crestal section of the ridge, its flanks and transform faults. Holocene and layers representing the most recent and pen¬ultimate continental glaciations and the last interglacial are distinguishable in the late Quaternary profile. During their development, changes in the mean annual sea surface temperature in the tropical zone of the South Atlantic were minimal, i.e. 1-2°C.

Age of bottom sediments from the Indian Ocean

It has been found that oxygen-isotope and paleotemperature curves based on types of planktonic foraminiferal thanatocenoses in three sediment cores, from the tropical, southern temperate, and southern glacial zones of the Indian Ocean can be readily correlated with each other. The sediment cores revealed three epochs of cold climate during the past 700 ky; these are probably connect with worldwide epochs of cooling during Pleistocene that led to advance of ice sheets during continental glaciations in the northern hemisphere.

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi : an assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods

Acknowledgements We wish to express our gratitude to the National Geographic Society and the National Research Foundation of South Africa for funding the discovery, recovery, and analysis of the H. naledi material. The study reported here was also made possible by grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, the British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund, the Canada Research Chairs Program, Simon Fraser University, the DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences (COE-Pal), as well as by a Discovery Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, a Young Scientist Development Grant from the Paleontological Scientific Trust (PAST), a Baldwin Fellowship from the L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, and a Seed Grant and a Cornerstone Faculty Fellowship from the Texas A&M University College of Liberal Arts. We would like to thank the South African Heritage Resource Agency for the permits necessary to work on the Rising Star site; the Jacobs family for granting access; Wilma Lawrence, Bonita De Klerk, Merrill Van der Walt, and Justin Mukanku for their assistance during all phases of the project; Lucas Delezene for valuable discussion on the dental characters of H. naledi. We would also like to thank Peter Schmid for the preparation of the Dinaledi fossil material; Yoel Rak for explaining in detail some of the characters used in previous studies; William Kimbel for drawing our attention to the possibility that there might be a problem with Dembo et al.’s (2015) codes for the two characters related to the articular eminence; Will Stein for helpful discussion about the Bayesian analyses; Mike Lee for his comments on this manuscript; John Hawks for his support in organizing the Rising Star workshop; and the associate editor and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. We are grateful to S. Potze and the Ditsong Museum, B. Billings and the School of Anatomical Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, and B. Zipfel and the Evolutionary Studies Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand for providing access to the specimens in their care; the University of the Witwatersrand, the Evolutionary Studies Institute, and the South African National Centre of Excellence in PalaeoSciences for hosting a number of the authors while studying the material; and the Western Canada Research Grid for providing access to the high-performance computing facilities for the Bayesian analyses. Last but definitely not least, we thank the head of the Rising Star project, Lee Berger, for his leadership and support, and for encouraging us to pursue the study reported here.

Linking high-frequency DOC dynamics to the age of connected water sources

Copyright 2016. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.