Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

Desenvolvimento de novas ferramentas analíticas para a monitorização da actividade da Paraoxonase 1 em amostras de plasma humano

Segundo a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), as doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) são a principal causa de morte nos países desenvolvidos. Há uma necessidade urgente de métodos eficazes para a detecção precoce de doenças cardiovasculares, devido à falta de factores de risco convencionais. Os níveis elevados de homocisteína (Hcy) no sangue, homocisteinemia, são um factor de risco independente bem estabelecido para DCV. De acordo com alguns autores, a conversão metabólica de Hcy no metabolito tóxico Hcy-Tl e subsequente N-homocisteinilação de proteínas induz a agregação e a formação de amiloide, contribuindo assim para a alterações próaterogénicas no sistema cardiovascular. A enzima associada à lipoproteína de alta densidade (HDL), paraoxonase 1 (PON1), é capaz de hidrolisar o metabolito tóxico Hcy-Tl de volta a Hcy no soro humano, como observado em estudos recentes que indicam o papel de patogénese em DCV da hPON1. As paraoxonases de soro (PON1, PON2 e PON3) são hidrolases dependentes de cálcio, que pertencem a uma família de enzimas que exibem propriedades antioxidantes e anti-inflamatórias. Foram identificadas três actividades catalíticas principais para PON1: (i) actividade paraoxonase, que corresponde à conversão hidrolítica de paraoxon em p-nitrofenol e a dietil fosfato, (ii) a actividade arilesterase que promove a hidrólise de ésteres aromáticos, e a (iii) actividade de lactonase, que catalisa a hidrólise de Hcy a Hcy-Tl, sendo considerada a actividade principal da PON1. Vários estudos têm relacionado estas actividades enzimáticas a diversas patologias, o que sugere a sua potencial utilidade no diagnóstico clínico. Neste trabalho pretende-se desenvolver um novo método electroquímico para a detecção fácil do substrato e produto resultantes da hidrólise enzimática de paraoxon pela hPON1. Utilizando uma célula electroquímica constituída por um eléctrodo de referência Ag /AgCl., um contra-eléctrodo de Pt e um electrodo de trabalho de carbono vítreo, o paraoxon e p-nitrofenol foram detectados simultaneamente por voltametria de onda quadrada, numa janela de potencial de [-0,3;-1,2] V. Os resultados dos ensaios com a enzima testada a pH 7,6 e 37°C, na presença de paraoxon e utilizando plasma humano como uma fonte de PON1 serão discutidos. Usando a mesma composição de célula electroquímica, Hcy e Hcy-Tl foram estudados utilizando diferentes interfaces e tipos de tratamento para testar a melhor maneira possível de detecção das duas espécies na mesma experiência electroquímica.

Estudo técnico-económico de um sistema solar termoelétrico com back-up a biomassa

Este trabalho consistiu no estudo técnico-económico (dimensionamento) de uma central térmica solar de torre norte, com back-up a biomassa (pellets) para produção de energia elétrica. A partir da plataforma PVGIS obteve-se a irradiação normal direta, DNI, da região do Alentejo, Portugal, segundo critérios descritos na secção 3.1. O valor anual obtido foi de 2319 !"ℎ/%&, valor este que foi convertido em energia elétrica, obtendo-se, assim, um montante de 105.761.800 kWh por ano, em 25 anos. Estas importâncias foram obtidas através dos equipamentos que constituem a central, entre eles o campo solar (composto por 2067 helióstatos com área total de 188097 %&), a torre (convertendo a concentração da DNI para energia térmica ao fluído de transferência de calor, HTF), o bloco de potência (composta por permutador de calor, turbina, gerador elétrico e outros) e com ajuda de uma caldeira a biomassa (pellets) que consome cerca de 24.001,23 toneladas de pellets por ano. O estudo económico foi realizado num modelo executável no Excel, calculando, assim, o custo total do sistema, 138.515.886,87 €. A partir deste valor calcularam-se os indicadores económicos (Valor Atualizado Líquido, VAL=-12.282540,28 €) com uma tarifa bonificada de 0,22114 €/kWh, que indica que o sistema termo solar com back-up a biomassa (pellets) não é viável economicamente (e o mesmo acontece com o sistema termo solar sem a biomassa). O dimensionamento técnico do sistema CSP de torre é feito a partir de um modelo matemático executado em Excel e MatLab e pelo software System Advisor Model, SAM e o da caldeira a pellets é concretizado também no Excel. Os resultados do modelo matemático foram comparados com os valores obtidos no SAM para o mês típico de julho comprovando, assim, as fórmulas e conceitos contidos no estado da arte. Realizou-se, também, uma comparação dos valores anuais do sistema obtidos no SAM com os valores reais da Gemasolar (em Espanha), demonstrando então a veracidade dos valores obtidos no dimensionamento feito para Portugal.

Effectiveness of silver nitrate compared to talc slurry as pleural sclerosing agent in rabbits. Influence of concomitant intrapleural lidocaine

The ideal agent for producing pleurodesis has not been identified. Talc, the most commonly used, poses several problems. Another possibility is silver nitrate, which was widely used in the past. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of the intrapleural instillation of lidocaine in producing a pleurodesis with silver nitrate, to define the effect of lidocaine in the maturation of the collagen fibers, and to confirm that the pleurodesis after silver nitrate is stronger than after talc. METHODS: We studied three groups of 8 rabbits. Two groups received 0.5% silver nitrate; in one we had previously injected 0.5 ml of 2% lidocaine. The third group received 400 mg/kg talc (2 ml). The animals were sacrificed 28 days after the injection, and the pleural spaces were assessed grossly for evidence of pleurodesis and microscopically for evidence of inflammation and fibrosis. The total amount of pleural collagen and the distribution of thick and thin collagen fibers were quantified. Collagen was identified using picrosirius red stain. RESULTS: In the two groups that received silver nitrate (without lidocaine: 3.5 + 03 and with lidocaine: 3.2 + 0.3), the macroscopic pleurodesis (scale 0 -- 4) was significantly (p = 0.001) better than that resulting from talc (1.6 + 0.2). The mean degree of pleural fibrosis induced by silver nitrate (3.5 + 0.2) was significantly (p = 0.004) higher than that induced by talc (1.9 + 0.1). The previous instillation of lidocaine resulted in a tendency for decreased amounts of fibrosis (3.1 + 0.4). The mean amount (10³mm²) of pleural collagen was significantly (p = 0.009) greater in the rabbits that received silver nitrate (116.9 + 22.7) than in those that received talc (10.7 + 3.4). The injection of lidocaine slightly reduced the collagen (80.1 + 30.3). The distribution of collagen fibers did not differ among the groups. CONCLUSION: This rabbit model clearly confirms that intrapleural silver nitrate is more effective than talc for producing pleurodesis. The previous intrapleural instillation of lidocaine results in a decreasing trend in the amount of collagen, but does not change the effectiveness of the pleural fusion or modify the process of collagen maturation.

Prognostic factors in locally advanced colon cancer treated by extended resection

The impact of clinical, pathologic, and surgical variables on the postoperative morbidity, mortality, and survival of patients undergoing extended resections of colon carcinoma were evaluated. METHODS: The medical records of 95 patients who underwent extended resections for colon carcinoma between 1953 and 1996 were reviewed. In all cases, in addition to colectomy, 1 or more organs and/or structures were resected en bloc due to a macroscopically based suspicion of tumor invasion. The clinical, pathologic, and surgical parameters were analyzed. Overall survival rates were analyzed according to the method of Kaplan and Meier. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Eighty-six patients were treated by curative surgeries and the remaining by palliative resections. Invasion of the organs and/or adjacent structures and regional lymph nodes was found microscopically in 48 and 31 patients, respectively. The median follow-up without postoperative mortality was 47.7 months. The 5-year overall survival rates was 52.6%. The 5-year overall survival rates for patients undergoing curative and palliative surgeries was 58.3% and 0%, respectively. The mean survival time in the palliative surgery group was 3.1 months. Multivariate analysis showed that Karnofsky performance status was strongly related to the risk of postoperative complications (P = .01), and postoperative deaths were associated with the type of surgery and Karnofsky performance status at the time of admission (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Some patients with locally advanced colon adenocarcinomas undergoing extended resections have a 5-year overall survival rates of 58.3%. Patients could benefit from palliative-intent procedures, but these measures should cautiously be indicated and avoided in patients with low Karnofsky performance status due to high rates of postoperative mortality and poor survival.

Escolha de indicadores para um relatório

This dissertation is aimed at helping organizations that implemented a Business Intelligence (BI) system without documenting to identify the reasons for the indicators choice either in the conception phase of the project or other. The example taken to present the methodology is a fictitious case study of an organization named BestBread. The aim of this dissertation is to demonstrate not only the necessary indicators in a report but also to describe why they are needed through a business goal representation. This dissertation approach focus mainly in using two methodologies, a simplified notation of the Business Intelligence model (BIM) and a systematic approach that aims to justify BI indicators through modelling report goals. This approach provides guidance to organizations that already implemented a BI tool by presenting a method to compare intuitive and systematic selection of indicators with the BI system existing indicators. The approach is applicable to define in a report its significant indicators. The steps needed to be executed are the following: 1- Model business goals; 2- Select indicators through an intuitive perspective; 3- Verify the indicators existence identified in the intuitive perspective; 4- Select indicators through a systematic perspective; 5- Verify the indicators existence identified in the systematic perspective; 6- Make a global comparison. The dissertation approach allowed an easier way to identify and explain the purpose of indicators to be used in a report. Also, the methodology presented could help the BI deployment phase to be quicker since users would be able to visualise through the representations the evaluation that the indicators could evoke in their business goals. Therefore, it could improve the use of the BI tool, its acceptance and maybe even users’ satisfaction with the tool.

Measurements of Higgs boson production and couplings in the four-lepton channel in pp collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The final ATLAS Run 1 measurements of Higgs boson production and couplings in the decay channel H→ZZ∗→ℓ+ℓ−ℓ′+ℓ′−, where ℓ,ℓ′=e or μ, are presented. These measurements were performed using pp collision data corresponding to integrated luminosities of 4.5 fb−1 and 20.3 fb−1 at center-of-mass energies of 7 TeV and 8 TeV, respectively, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The H→ZZ∗→4ℓ signal is observed with a significance of 8.1 standard deviations at 125.36 GeV, the combined ATLAS measurement of the Higgs boson mass from the H→γγ and H→ZZ∗→4ℓ channels. The production rate relative to the Standard Model expectation, the signal strength, is measured in four different production categories in the H→ZZ∗→4ℓ channel. The measured signal strength, at this mass, and with all categories combined, is 1.44 +0.40−0.33. The signal strength for Higgs boson production in gluon fusion or in association with tt¯ or bb¯ pairs is found to be 1.7 +0.5−0.4, while the signal strength for vector-boson fusion combined with WH/ZH associated production is found to be 0.3 +1.6−0.9.

Dissolution enhancement of active pharmaceutical ingredients by therapeutic deep eutectic systems

A therapeutic deep eutectic system (THEDES) is here defined as a deep eutectic solvent (DES) having an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) as one of the components. In this work, THEDESs are proposed as enhanced transporters and delivery vehicles for bioactive molecules. THEDESs based on choline chloride (ChCl) or menthol conjugated with three different APIs, namely acetylsalicylic acid (AA), benzoic acid (BA) and phenylacetic acid (PA), were synthesized and characterized for thermal behaviour, structural features, dissolution rate and antibacterial activity. Differential scanning calorimetry and polarized optical microscopy showed that ChCl:PA (1:1), ChCl:AA (1:1), menthol:AA (3:1), menthol:BA (3:1), menthol:PA (2:1) and menthol:PA (3:1) were liquid at room temperature. Dissolution studies in PBS led to increased dissolution rates for the APIs when in the form of THEDES, compared to the API alone. The increase in dissolution rate was particularly noticeable for menthol-based THEDES. Antibacterial activity was assessed using both Gram-positive and Gram-negative model organisms. The results show that all the THEDESs retain the antibacterial activity of the API. Overall, our results highlight the great potential of THEDES as dissolution enhancers in the development of novel and more effective drug delivery systems.

Single molecule simulation of diffusion and enzyme kinetics

This work presents a molecular-scale agent-based model for the simulation of enzymatic reactions at experimentally measured concentrations. The model incorporates stochasticity and spatial dependence, using diffusing and reacting particles with physical dimensions. We developed strategies to adjust and validate the enzymatic rates and diffusion coefficients to the information required by the computational agents, i.e., collision efficiency, interaction logic between agents, the time scale associated with interactions (e.g., kinetics), and agent velocity. Also, we tested the impact of molecular location (a source of biological noise) in the speed at which the reactions take place. Simulations were conducted for experimental data on the 2-hydroxymuconate tautomerase (EC 5.3.2.6, UniProt ID Q01468) and the Steroid Delta-isomerase (EC 5.3.3.1, UniProt ID P07445). Obtained results demonstrate that our approach is in accordance to existing experimental data and long-term biophysical and biochemical assumptions.

Predictive factors of complications after coronary stent implantation

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the predictive factors of complications after implantation of coronary stents in a consecutive cohort study. METHODS: Clinical and angiographic characteristics related to the procedure were analyzed, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction, urgent surgery, new angioplasty, death) in the in-hospital phase were recorded. Data were stored in an Access database and analyzed by using the SPSS 6.0 statistical program and a stepwise backwards multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: One thousand eighteen (mean age of 61±11 years, 29% females) patients underwent 1,070 stent implantations. The rate of angiographic success was 96.8%, the rate of clinical success was 91%, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications was 7.9%. The variables independently associated with major cardiovascular complications, with their respective odds ratio (OR) were: rescue stent, OR = 5.1 (2.7-9.6); filamentary stent, OR = 4.5 (2.2-9.1); first-generation tubular stent, OR = 2.4 (1.2-4.6); multiple stents, OR = 3 (1.6-5.6); complexity of the lesion, OR = 2.4 (1.1-5.1); thrombus, OR = 2 (1.1-3.5). CONCLUSION: The results stress the importance of angiographic variables and techniques in the risk of complications and draw attention to the influence of the stent's design on the result of the procedure.

Hipometilação do LINE-1 está Associada ao Risco de Doença Cardíaca Coronariana na População Chinesa

Fundamentos: O nível de metilação global do ADN de leucócitos no sangue tem sido associado ao risco de doença arterial coronariana (DAC), com resultados inconsistentes em diferentes populações. Faltam dados semelhantes da população chinesa, onde diferentes fatores genéticos, de estilo de vida e ambientais podem afetar a metilação do ADN e sua relação com o risco de DCC. Objetivos: Analisar se a metilação global está associada ao risco de doença coronariana na população chinesa. Métodos: Foram incluídos um total de 334 casos de DCC e 788 controles saudáveis. A metilação global do ADN de leucócitos de sangue foi estimada por meio da análise das repetições do LINE-1 usando pirosequenciamento de bissulfito. Resultados: Em uma análise inicial restrita aos controles o nível do LINE-1 diminui significativamente com a idade avançada, colesterol total elevado, e diagnóstico de diabetes. Na análise de caso-controle, a redução da metilação do LINE-1 foi associada ao aumento do risco de DCC, tendo a análise por quartil revelado uma odds ratio (IC 95%) de 0,9 (0,6-1,4), 1,9 (1,3-2,9) e 2,3 (1,6 3.5) para o terceiro, segundo e primeiro (o mais baixo) quartil (P da tendência < 0,001), respectivamente, em comparação com o quarto (o mais alto) quartil. A metilação inferior (< mediana) do LINE-1 esteve associada a 2,2 vezes (IC 95% = 1,7-3,0) o aumento de risco de doença coronariana. As estimativas de risco de DCC menores relacionadas com o LINE-1 tenderam a ser mais fortes entre os indivíduos com maior tercil de homocisteína (P interação = 0,042) e naqueles com diagnóstico de hipertensão arterial (P interação = 0,012). Conclusão: A hipometilação do LINE-1 está associada ao risco de doença coronariana na população chinesa. Fatores de risco de DCC potenciais tais como a idade avançada, colesterol total elevado, e diagnóstico de diabetes podem ter impacto na metilação global do ADN, exercendo, portanto, o seu efeito sobre o risco de doença coronariana.

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Prevention of bone marrow graft failure by an anti LFA-1 monoclonal antibody

Graft rejection is the major cause of failure of HLA mismatched bone marrow transplantation because of residual host immunity. we have proposed to use a monoclonal murine antibody specific for the LFA-1 molecule (25-3) to prevent graft failure in HLA mismatched bone marrow transplantation (BMT). The rationale for this approach is three fold: LFA-1 deficient patients (3/3) do not reject HLA mismatched BMT; anti LFA-1 blocka in vitro the induction of T cell responses and T/ non T cytotoxic functions; LFA-1 is not expressed by other cells than leucocytes. We have accordingly treated twenty two patients with inherited diseases and 8 with leikemia. The bone marrow was T cells depled by E rosetting of Campath antibody. The antibody was given at days -3, -1, +1, +3, +5 at dose of .1 mg/kg/d for the first 9 and then .2mg/kg/d from day -3 to +6. Engraftment occured in 23/30 patients as shown by at least HLA typing. Hematological recovery was rapid, GVH was limited. Side effects of antibody infusion included fever and possibly an increased incidence of early bacteral infection (sepsis, 1 death). Immunological reconstitution occured slowly leading in six cases to EBV-induced B cell poliferation (1 death and in two others to transient auto immune hemolytic anemia. There has been only one secondary graft rejection. Sisteen patients are alive 3 to 26 months post transplant with functional grafts. Although the number of patients treated is still low the absence of late rejection so far, gives hope for long term maintenance of the graft using anti LFA-1. Since the antibody is an IgG 1 unable to bind human complement, and since it is known to inhibit phagocytosis, there is a good suggestion that 25-3 act through functional blocking of host T and non T luymphocytes at both induction and effector levels.

SUCLG2 identified as both a determinator of CSF Aβ1-42 levels and an attenuator of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease.

Cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-beta 1-42 (Aβ1-42) and phosphorylated Tau at position 181 (pTau181) are biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We performed an analysis and meta-analysis of genome-wide association study data on Aβ1-42 and pTau181 in AD dementia patients followed by independent replication. An association was found between Aβ1-42 level and a single-nucleotide polymorphism in SUCLG2 (rs62256378) (P = 2.5×10(-12)). An interaction between APOE genotype and rs62256378 was detected (P = 9.5 × 10(-5)), with the strongest effect being observed in APOE-ε4 noncarriers. Clinically, rs62256378 was associated with rate of cognitive decline in AD dementia patients (P = 3.1 × 10(-3)). Functional microglia experiments showed that SUCLG2 was involved in clearance of Aβ1-42.

Impact of low-level viremia on clinical and virological outcomes in treated HIV-1-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: The goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality by suppressing HIV replication. The prognostic value of persistent low-level viremia (LLV), particularly for clinical outcomes, is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Assess the association of different levels of LLV with virological failure, AIDS event, and death among HIV-infected patients receiving combination ART. METHODS: We analyzed data from 18 cohorts in Europe and North America, contributing to the ART Cohort Collaboration. Eligible patients achieved viral load below 50 copies/ml within 3-9 months after ART initiation. LLV50-199 was defined as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 199 copies/ml and LLV200-499 as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 499 copies/ml, with at least one between 200 and 499 copies/ml. We used Cox models to estimate the association of LLV with virological failure (two consecutive viral loads at least 500 copies/ml or one viral load at least 500 copies/ml, followed by a modification of ART) and AIDS event/death. RESULTS: Among 17 902 patients, 624 (3.5%) experienced LLV50-199 and 482 (2.7%) LLV200-499. Median follow-up was 2.3 and 3.1 years for virological and clinical outcomes, respectively. There were 1903 virological failure, 532 AIDS events and 480 deaths. LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-5.17]. LLV50-199 was weakly associated with virological failure (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 0.96-2.00). LLV50-199 and LLV200-499 were not associated with AIDS event/death (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 0.78-1.82; and aHR 1.11, 95% CI 0.72-1.71, respectively). CONCLUSION: LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure, but not with AIDS event/death. Our results support the US guidelines, which define virological failure as a confirmed viral load above 200 copies/ml.