Humanitaarisuuden varjossa : Poliittiset tekijät lastensiirroissa Ruotsiin sotiemme aikana ja niiden jälkeen

The evacuation of Finnish children to Sweden during WW II has often been called a small migration . Historical research on this subject is scarce, considering the great number of children involved. The present research has applied, apart from the traditional archive research, the framework of history-culture developed by Rüsen in order to have an all-inclusive approach to the impact of this historical event. The framework has three dimensions: political, aesthetic and cognitive. The collective memory of war children has also been discussed. The research looks for political factors involved in the evacuations during the Winter War and the Continuation War and the post-war period. The approach is wider than a purely humanitarian one. Political factors have had an impact in both Finland and Sweden, beginning from the decision-making process and ending with the discussion of the unexpected consequences of the evacuations in the Finnish Parliament in 1950. The Winter War (30.11.1939 13.3.1940) witnessed the first child transports. These were also the model for future decision making. The transports were begun on the initiative of Swedes Maja Sandler, the wife of the resigned minister of foreign affairs Rickard Sandler, and Hanna Rydh-Munck af Rosenschöld , but this activity was soon accepted by the Swedish government because the humanitarian help in the form of child transports lightened the political burden of Prime Minister Hansson, who was not willing to help Finland militarily. It was help that Finland never asked for and it was rejected at the beginning. The negative response of Minister Juho Koivisto was not taken very seriously. The political forces in Finland supporting child transports were stronger than those rejecting them. The major politicians in support belonged to Finland´s Swedish minority. In addition, close to 1 000 Finnish children remained in Sweden after the Winter War. No analysis was made of the reasons why these children did not return home. A committee set up to help Finland and Norway was established in Sweden in 1941. Its chairman was Torsten Nothin, an influential Swedish politician. In December 1941 he appealed to the Swedish government to provide help to Finnish children under the authority of The International Red Cross. This plea had no results. The delivery of great amounts of food to Finland, which was now at war with Great Britain, had automatically caused reactions among the allies against the Swedish imports through Gothenburg. This included the import of oil, which was essential for the Swedish navy and air force. Oil was later used successfully to force a reduction in commerce between Sweden and Finland. The contradiction between Sweden´s essential political interests and humanitarian help was solved in a way that did not harm the country´s vital political interests. Instead of delivering help to Finland, Finnish children were transported to Sweden through the organisations that had already been created. At the beginning of the Continuation War (25.6.1941 27.4.1945) negative opinion regarding child transports re-emerged in Finland. Karl-August Fagerholm implemented the transports in September 1941. In 1942, members of the conservative parties in the Finnish Parliament expressed their fear of losing the children to the Swedes. They suggested that Finland should withdraw from the inter-Nordic agreement, according to which the adoptions were approved by the court of the country where the child resided. This initiative failed. Paavo Virkkunen, an influential member of the conservative party Kokoomus in Finland, favoured the so-called good-father system, where help was delivered to Finland in the form of money and goods. Virkkunen was concerned about the consequences of a long stay in a Swedish family. The risk of losing the children was clear. The extreme conservative party (IKL, the Patriotic Movement of the Finnish People) wanted to alienate Finland from Sweden and bring Finland closer to Germany. Von Blücher, the German ambassador to Finland, had in his report to Berlin, mentioned the political consequences of the child transports. Among other things, they would bring Finland and Sweden closer to each other. He had also paid attention to the Nordic political orientation in Finland. He did not question or criticize the child transports. His main interest was to increase German political influence in Finland, and the Nordic political orientation was an obstacle. Fagerholm was politically ill-favoured by the Germans, because he had a strong Nordic political disposition and had criticised Germany´s activities in Norway. The criticism of child transports was at the same time criticism of Fagerholm. The official censorship organ of the Finnish government (VTL) denied the criticism of child transports in January 1942. The reasons were political. Statements made by members of the Finnish Parliament were also censored, because it was thought that they would offend the Swedes. In addition, the censorship organ used child transports as a means of active propaganda aimed at improving the relations between the two countries. The Finnish Parliament was informed in 1948 that about 15 000 Finnish children still remained in Sweden. These children would stay there permanently. In 1950 the members of the Agrarian Party in Finland stated that Finland should actively strive to get the children back. The party on the left (SKDL, the Democratic Movement of Finnish People) also focused on the unexpected consequences of the child transports. The Social Democrats, and largely Fagerholm, had been the main force in Finland behind the child transports. Members of the SKDL, controlled by Finland´s Communist Party, stated that the war time authorities were responsible for this war loss. Many of the Finnish parents could not get their children back despite repeated requests. The discussion of the problem became political, for example von Born, a member of the Swedish minority party RKP, related this problem to foreign policy by stating that the request to repatriate the Finnish children would have negative political consequences for the relations between Finland and Sweden. He emphasized expressing feelings of gratitude to the Swedes. After the war a new foreign policy was established by Prime Minister (1944 1946) and later President (1946 1956) Juho Kusti Paasikivi. The main cornerstone of this policy was to establish good relations with the Soviet Union. The other, often forgotten, cornerstone was to simultaneously establish good relations with other Nordic countries, especially Sweden, as a counterbalance. The unexpected results of the child evacuation, a Swedish initiative, had violated the good relations with Sweden. The motives of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People were much the same as those of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People. Only the ideology was different. The Nordic political orientation was an obstacle to both parties. The position of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People was much better than that of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People, because now one could clearly see the unexpected results, which included human tragedy for the many families who could not be re-united with their children despite their repeated requests. The Swedes questioned the figure given to the Finnish Parliament regarding the number of children permanently remaining in Sweden. This research agrees with the Swedes. In a calculation based on Swedish population registers, the number of these children is about 7 100. The reliability of this figure is increased by the fact that the child allowance programme began in Sweden in 1948. The prerequisite to have this allowance was that the child be in the Swedish population register. It was not necessary for the child to have Swedish nationality. The Finnish Parliament had false information about the number of Finnish children who remained in Sweden in 1942 and in 1950. There was no parliamentary control in Finland regarding child transports, because the decision was made by one cabinet member and speeches by MPs in the Finnish Parliament were censored, like all criticism regarding child transports to Sweden. In Great Britain parliamentary control worked better throughout the whole war, because the speeches regarding evacuation were not censored. At the beginning of the war certain members of the British Labour Party and the Welsh Nationalists were particularly outspoken about the scheme. Fagerholm does not discuss to any great extent the child transports in his memoirs. He does not evaluate the process and results as a whole. This research provides some possibilities for an evaluation of this sort. The Swedish medical reports give a clear picture of the physical condition of the Finnish children when arriving in Sweden. The transports actually revealed how bad the situation of the poorest children was. According to Titmuss, similar observations were made in Great Britain during the British evacuations. The child transports saved the lives of approximately 2 900 children. Most of these children were removed to Sweden to receive treatment for illnesses, but many among the healthy children were undernourished and some suffered from the effects of tuberculosis. The medical inspection in Finland was not thorough. If you compare the figure of 2 900 children saved and returned with the figure of about 7 100 children who remained permanently in Sweden, you may draw the conclusion that Finland as a country failed to benefit from the child transports, and that the whole operation was a political mistake with far-reaching consequenses. The basic goal of the operation was to save lives and have all the children return to Finland after the war. The difficulties with the repatriation of the children were mainly psychological. The level of child psychology in Finland at that time was low. One may question the report by Professor Martti Kaila regarding the adaptation of children to their families back in Finland. Anna Freud´s warnings concerning the difficulties that arise when child evacuees return are also valid in Finland. Freud viewed the emotional life of children in a way different from Kaila: the physical survival of a small child forces her to create strong emotional ties to the person who is looking after her. This, a characteristic of all small children, occurred with the Finnish children too, and it was something the political decision makers in Finland could not see during and after the war. It is a characteristic of all little children. Yet, such experiences were already evident during the Winter War. The best possible solution had been to limit the child transports only to children in need of medical treatment. Children from large and poor families had been helped by organising meals and by buying food from Denmark with Swedish money. Assisting Finland by all possible means should have been the basic goal of Fagerholm in September 1941, when the offer of child transports came from Sweden. Fagerholm felt gratitude towards the Swedes. The risks became clear to him only in 1943. The war children are today a rather scattered and diffuse group of people. Emotionally, part of these children remained in Sweden after the war. There is no clear collective memory, only individual memories; the collective memory of the war children has partly been shaped later through the activities of the war child associations. The main difference between the children evacuated in Finland (for example from Karelia to safer areas with their families) and the war children, who were sent abroad, is that the war children lack a shared story and experience with their families. They were outsiders . The whole matter is sensitive to many of such mothers and discussing the subject has often been avoided in families. The war-time censorship has continued in families through silence and avoidance and Finnish politicians and Finnish families had to face each other on this issue after the war. The lack of all-inclusive historical research has also prevented the formation of a collective awareness among war children returned to Finland or those remaining permanently abroad.. Knowledge of historical facts will help war-children by providing an opportunity to create an all-inclusive approach to the past. Personal experiences should be regarded as part of a large historical entity shadowed by war and where many political factors were at work in both Finland and Sweden. This means strengthening of the cognitive dimension discussed in Rüsen´s all-inclusive historical approach.

Sireenit, floksit ja iirikset- Puu-Käpylän koristekasvit

Puu-Käpylä (“Wooden Käpylä”), a neighbourhood of Helsinki, is the earliest example of the Garden City Movement in Finland. The suburb of valuable wooden architecture was built between 1920 and 1925, with the aim to provide a healthy housing area for working-class families with many children. The houses were erected by a co-operative (Käpylän kansanasunnot, “People?s Dwellings”) and they are protected by the city plan since 1960?s. However, the historical value of the sheltered courtyards has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to survey the garden flora of Puu-Käpylä and to evaluate the authenticity of the courtyard gardens. The survey covered the area of one residential quarter (1.2 ha) with twelve 2-storey semi-detached timber houses arranged around a common yard, which was originally appointed for the tenants? vegetable gardens. The houses are still rented, and each flat is allowed a small lot of the courtyard for cultivation. A complete list was made of all perennial, ornamental plant taxa present in the quarter. Spring bulbs were missed due to the timing of the survey. Generally, the plants were recorded on species level, with the exception of common lilacs, shrub roses, irises and peonies that were thoroughly studied for cultivar identification. It was assumed that plants initially grown in the courtyard could be distinguished by studying Finnish garden magazines, books and nursery catalogues published in the 1920?s and by comparing the present vegetation to surviving documents from the quarter. The total number of ornamental plant taxa identified was 172, of which 17 were trees, 47 shrubs, 7 climbers and 101 herbaceous perennials. The results indicated that a major part of the shrubs, climbers and perennials presumably originated from the 1970?s or later, whereas ca. 70 % of the tree specimens were deemed as original. The survey disclosed a heritage variety of common lilac, resembling cultivar „Prince Notger?, a specific peony taxon, Paeonia humilis Retz., cultivated in Nordic countries since long ago, and a few historic iris varieties. Well-preserved design elements included front gardens on one side of the quarter, a maple alley on another side as well as trees at the garden gates. Old garden books and magazines did not shed much light on the Finnish garden flora commonly used in the period when Puu-Käpylä was built. However, they gave a valuable picture of contemporary planting design. Nursery catalogues offered insight into the assortment of ornamental plants traded in the 1920?s. Conclusions on the authenticity of the current flora were mainly drawn on the basis of old photographs and a vegetation survey map drawn in the 1970?s. This study revealed a need for standardization of syrvey methods applied when investigating garden floras. Uniform survey techniques would make the results comparable and enable a future compilation of data from e.g. historic gardens.

Studies in sesquiterpenes—XXVI : Synthesis of 2,2,6-trimethyl-3-oxo-1-carbomethoxybicyclo[0,3,3]octane, a degradation product of patchouli alcohol

The synthesis of the title compound is described and results of some experiments on the degradation of patchouli alcohol are reported.

A new synthesis of dl-3-methoxy-17β-carboxy-1,3,5(10),6,8-estrapentaene

3-Methyl-4-carboxy-2-(2′-methoxy-6′-naphthyl)cyclopenten-3-acetic acid, prepared from trans methyl 2-methyl-3-carbomethoxycyclopentanon-2-acetate and 2-methoxy-6-lithionaphthalene, on ring closure and catalytic hydrogenation gave dl-3-methoxy-17β-carboxy-1,3,5(10),6,8-estrapentaene.

Effect of fuel on the formation structure, transport and magnetic properties of LaMnO3+nanopowders

Single-step low-temperature solution combustion (LCS) synthesis was adopted for the preparation of LaMnO3+ (LM) nanopowders. The powders were well characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS),surface area and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The PXRD of as-formed LM showed a cubic phase but, upon calcination (900degrees C, 6 h), it transformed into a rhombohedral phase. The effect of fuel on the formation of LM was examined, and its structure and magnetoresistance properties were investigated. Magnetoresistance (MR) measurements on LM were carried out at 0, 1, 4 and 7 T between 300 and 10 K. LM (fuel-to-oxidizer ratio; = 1) showed an MR of 17% at 1 T, whereas, for 4 and 7 T, it exhibited an MR of 45 and 55%, respectively, near the TM-I. Metallic resistivity data below TM-I showed that the double exchange interaction played a major role in this compound. It was interesting to observe that the sample calcined at 1200 degrees C for 3 h exhibited insulator behavior.

Identification of genetic susceptibility loci for migraine

Migraine is the common cause of chronic episodic headache, affecting 12%-15% of the Caucasian population (41 million Europeans and some half a million Finns), and causes considerable loss of quality of life to its sufferers, as well as being linked to increased risk for a wide range of conditions, from depression to stroke. Migraine is the 19th most severe disease in terms of disability-adjusted life years, and 9th among women. It is characterized by attacks of headache accompanied by sensitivity to external stimuli lasting 4-72 hours, and in a third of cases by neurological aura symptoms, such as loss of vision, speech or muscle function. The underlying pathophysiology, including what triggers migraine attacks and why they occur in the first place, is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to identify genetic factors associated with the hereditary susceptibility to migraine, in order to gain a better understanding of migraine mechanisms. In this thesis, we report the results of genetic linkage and association analyses on a Finnish migraine patient collection as well as migraineurs from Australia, Denmark, Germany, Iceland and the Netherlands. Altogether we studied genetic information of nearly 7,000 migraine patients and over 50,000 population-matched controls. We also developed a new migraine analysis method called the trait component analysis, which is based on individual patient responses instead of the clinical diagnosis. Using this method, we detected a number of new genetic loci for migraine, including on chromosome 17p13 (HLOD 4.65) and 10q22-q23 (female-specific HLOD 7.68) with significant evidence of linkage, along with five other loci (2p12, 8q12, 4q28-q31, 18q12-q22, and Xp22) detected with suggestive evidence of linkage. The 10q22-q23 locus was the first genetic finding in migraine to show linkage to the same locus and markers in multiple populations, with consistent detection in six different scans. Traditionally, ion channels have been thought to play a role in migraine susceptibility, but we were able to exclude any significant role for common variants in a candidate gene study of 155 ion transport genes. This was followed up by the first genome-wide association study in migraine, conducted on 2,748 migraine patients and 10,747 matched controls followed by a replication in 3,209 patients and 40,062 controls. In this study, we found interesting results with genome-wide significance, providing targets for future genetic and functional studies. Overall, we found several promising genetic loci for migraine providing a promising base for future studies in migraine.

Topeliaaninen usko : Kirjailija Sakari Topelius uskontokasvattajana

ABSTRACT The author Zacharias Topelius as a religious educator The present study concerns the author Zacharias Topelius (1818-98) as a religious educator. The study´s main questions are as follows: What is the theological and pedagogical content of Topelius books and how is his religious instruction linked with the history of his time. The primary sources are his educational books Naturens bok (The Book of the Nature, 1856), Boken om vårt land (The Book of our Land, 1875) and Evangelium för Barnen (Gospel for Children, 1893), as well as his storybooks Läsning för barn I-VIII (Reading for Children I-VIII, 1865-96). The dissertation concerns the his-tory of religious education. Its primary method is background-based systematic analy-sis. In Topelius children s books the view of God is characterised both as an omnipresent spirit and as Providence, who guides world history according to his plan. In addition to Lutheranism this view is also influenced by Nationalism and Romanticism. The theological content of the books emphasises instruction in Christian life that is natural to normative children s books. Topelius strongly expresses the importance of a personal relationship to God, an idealistic Christian view of one s fellow man and of one s own nation as well as the value of nature conservation. The books of Topelius were some of the first educational works on nature preservation in Finland. The didactic quality of Topelius children s books was high for 19th century Finland. Their main emphasis in terms of educational goals is on civilisation (Bildung), self-awareness, national solidarity and living idealism. The pedagogical argumentation is mostly based on theological, historical, social and rational reasoning. The primary principles in Topelius teaching are Christian nationalism, idealistic harmony and the agrarian bourgeois. Christian nationalism is the main element of Topelius religious education. He considers the fatherland as a God-given project and the taking care of it as a part of holy service. Idealistic harmony is seen as the comprehensive development of one s character in the sense of romantic idealism. The agrarian bourgeois principle combines the Finnish peasant tradition with the values of 19th century modern bourgeois culture. I have named Topelius vision of religious education the Christian national project of civilisation (Bildung). Its main theses are home, religion and fatherland. The author himself strongly believed in this vision and never questioned it despite its national chauvinism and theological inconsistency. The religious ideology represented in Topelius educational works and storybooks was popular among pedagogues during the whole era of the Finnish folk school. It fit per-fectly with the Christian national discourse stemming from 19th century ideological ten-dencies. Due to their appropriate content combined with their practical language and pedagogical methods, the books were popular both at school and in the home for a long period of time. Therefore the books of Topelius aptly symbolise the religious education of their time and manifest their author s pedagogical talent as a national religious educator and as a populariser of Christian nationalism. Topelius books have had a lasting influence on Finnish religiosity. Key words: Topelius, theology, religion, education, nationalism and national project

Disjunct eddy covariance measurements of volatile organic compound fluxes using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources, vegetation being the dominant source on a global scale. Some of these reactive compounds are deemed major contributors or inhibitors to aerosol particle formation and growth, thus making VOC measurements essential for current climate change research. This thesis discusses ecosystem scale VOC fluxes measured above a boreal Scots pine dominated forest in southern Finland. The flux measurements were performed using the micrometeorological disjunct eddy covariance (DEC) method combined with proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), which is an online technique for measuring VOC concentrations. The measurement, calibration, and calculation procedures developed in this work proved to be well suited to long-term VOC concentration and flux measurements with PTR-MS. A new averaging approach based on running averaged covariance functions improved the determination of the lag time between wind and concentration measurements, which is a common challenge in DEC when measuring fluxes near the detection limit. The ecosystem scale emissions of methanol, acetaldehyde, and acetone were substantial. These three oxygenated VOCs made up about half of the total emissions, with the rest comprised of monoterpenes. Contrary to the traditional assumption that monoterpene emissions from Scots pine originate mainly as evaporation from specialized storage pools, the DEC measurements indicated a significant contribution from de novo biosynthesis to the ecosystem scale monoterpene emissions. This thesis offers practical guidelines for long-term DEC measurements with PTR-MS. In particular, the new averaging approach to the lag time determination seems useful in the automation of DEC flux calculations. Seasonal variation in the monoterpene biosynthesis and the detailed structure of a revised hybrid algorithm, describing both de novo and pool emissions, should be determined in further studies to improve biological realism in the modelling of monoterpene emissions from Scots pine forests. The increasing number of DEC measurements of oxygenated VOCs will probably enable better estimates of the role of these compounds in plant physiology and tropospheric chemistry. Keywords: disjunct eddy covariance, lag time determination, long-term flux measurements, proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry, Scots pine forests, volatile organic compounds

Taajuushuutokaupan tehokkuus - Toteutuminen Suomen ja Ruotsin 2,6 GHz:n huutokaupoissa

Tutkielmassa arvioidaan taajuushuutokauppojen taloudellista tehokkuutta. Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan erityisesti huutokaupan allokatiivista tehokkuutta ja sen toteutumista kahdessa huutokauppatapauksessa. Työn metodeina on historiallinen tarkastelu taajuushuutokauppojen kehityshistoriasta, toimialatarkastelu teletoimialasta, peliteoreettinen analyysi monen kohteen huutokaupan taloudellisesta tehokkuudesta sekä huutokaupassa asetettujen huutojen suuruuksien sekä määrien analysointi Suomen ja Ruotsin 2,6 GHz:n huutokauppojen osalta. Historiallisen tarkastelun tuloksena esitetään, että huutokaupat ovat taloudellisesti tehokkaampi menetelmä kuin muut taajuusjakomenetelmät: arpajaiset, hallinnollinen arviointi tai ns. ”first come first serve” –menetelmä. Matemaattisen analyysin avulla määritellään tarkasti huutokaupan tehokkuus monen kohteen huutokaupassa ja miten huutokauppamekanismilla voidaan ohjata huutokauppa tehokkaaseen lopputulemaan. 2,6 GHz:n Suomen ja Ruotsin huutokauppojen osalta johtopäätöksinä esitetään, että Ruotsin huutokaupassa todennäköisesti saavutettiin tehokas lopputulema. Suomen huutokaupan osalta esitetään, että huutokaupan taloudelliset mekanismit eivät välttämättä ohjanneet huutokauppaa tehokkaaseen lopputulemaan. Suurimpana syynä Suomen huutokaupan mahdollisesti tehottomaan lopputulemaan voitaneen pitää huutokaupassa ilmennyttä, osittain mekanismista johtunutta, vähäistä kysyntää.

Adnominal Person in the Morphological System of Erzya : Adnominaalinen persoona ersän kielen morfologisessa järjestelmässä

This dissertation is a synchronic description of adnominal person in the highly synthetic morphological system of Erzya as attested in extensive Erzya-language written-text corpora consisting of nearly 140 publications with over 4.5 million words and over 285,000 unique lexical items. Insight for this description have been obtained from several source grammars in German, Russian, Erzya, Finnish, Estonian and Hungarian, as well as bounteous discussions in the understanding of the language with native speakers and grammarians 1993 2010. Introductory information includes the discussion of the status of Erzya as a lan- guage, the enumeration of phonemes generally used in the transliteration of texts and an in-depth description of adnominal morphology. The reader is then made aware of typological and Erzya-specifc work in the study of adnominal-type person. Methods of description draw upon the prerequisite information required in the development of a two-level morphological analyzer, as can be obtained in the typological description of allomorphic variation in the target language. Indication of original author or dialect background is considered important in the attestation of linguistic phenomena, such that variation might be plotted for a synchronic description of the language. The phonological description includes the establishment of a 6-vowel, 29-consonant phoneme system for use in the transliteration of annotated texts, i.e. two phonemes more than are generally recognized, and numerous rules governing allophonic variation in the language. Erzya adnominal morphology is demonstrated to have a three-way split in stem types and a three-layer system of non-derivative affixation. The adnominal-affixation layers are broken into (a) declension (the categories of case, number and deictic marking); (b) nominal conjugation (non-verb grammatical and oblique-case items can be conjugated), and (c) clitic marking. Each layer is given statistical detail with regard to concatenability. Finally, individual subsections are dedicated to the matters of: possessive declension compatibility in the distinction of sublexica; genitive and dative-case paradigmatic defectivity in the possessive declension, where it is demonstrated to be parametrically diverse, and secondary declension, a proposed typology modifiers without nouns , as compatible with adnominal person.

Suomen sahateollisuuden supistumisen ja tulevaisuuden kuvien aluetaloudelliset vaikutukset

Sahateollisuuden tuotantokapasiteetti on vähentynyt viime vuosina paljon. Syvä lama on leikannut vientiä ja myös rakentaminen on hiljentynyt. Tämä on pakottanut sopeuttamistoimiin samaan tapaan kuin massa- ja paperiteollisuuden kohdalla. Mikäli tällekin vuodelle suunnitellut toimet toteutuvat, yhteensä yksitoista sahaa ja seitsemän jalostetehdasta on suljettu. Kapasiteetin leikkaukset koskevat yhteensä kahtatoista maakuntaa ja viittätoista seutukuntaa. Puolet leikkauksista kohdistuu pieniin seutukuntiin, joka lisää aluetalouden sopeutumishaastetta. Tutkimuksessa on selvitetty sahojen ja jalostetehtaiden sulkemisten aluetaloudellisia vaikutuksia seutukuntien taloudelliseen kasvuun ja työllisyyteen. Sahateollisuuden menetyksiä verrattiin maakuntatasolla massa- ja paperiteollisuuden vastaaviin. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin alan kolmea tulevaisuuden kuvaa Suomen tasolla. Laskelmat suoritettiin alueellisella yleisen tasapainon RegFinDyn-simulointimallilla. Tarkasteluperiodi oli sulkemisten osalta vuodet 2004–2013 ja vuodet 2010–2014 tulevaisuuden kuvien kohdalla. Sulkemisten vaikutus seutukuntien taloudelliseen kasvuun näyttäisi jäävän suhteellisen pieneksi. Aluetalous sopeutuisi uuteen tilanteeseen muiden alojen kompensoidessa osan menetyksistä. Talouskasvun menetykset ovat yhteensä 173,8 miljoonaa euroa, jos Varkauden sahaa ei suljeta ja 184,7 miljoonaa, jos sulkeminen tapahtuu. Tilanne näyttäisi samalta työllisyyden suhteen. Työllisyyden menetykset ovat vastaavasti yhteensä 2 693 henkilötyövuotta tai 3 031. Menetysten osuus maakuntien yhteenlasketusta BKT:sta ja työllisyydestä on 0,3 %. Tämä on vähemmän kuin massa- ja paperiteollisuudessa. Ongelmalliseksi tilanteen tekee se, että molemmat alat ovat menettäneet talouskasvua ja työllisyyttä viidessä maakunnassa. ETLA:n sahateollisuuden ja rakentamisen tuotantoennusteiden samoin kuin PTT:n hintaennusteiden mukaan tulevaisuus näyttäisi valoisammalta. Laman pohjan saavuttamisen jälkeen sekä tuotanto että kv-hinnat alkaisivat vahvistua tästä vuodesta lähtien. Tulevaisuuden kuvat muodostettiin näiden suhdanne-ennusteiden pohjalta. Mikäli myönteinen kehitys toteutuisi, Suomen BKT voisi kasvaa yhteensä 300–900 miljoonalla eurolla vuoden 2014 loppuun mennessä. Työllisyys voisi vahvistua 1 000–5 000 henkilötyövuodella. Sahateollisuuden sopeuttaminen tulee jatkumaan, mikäli lama ei kohta hellitä. Alan kehitystä seurataan yleisellä tasolla, mutta myös sopeuttamisen aluetaloudellisten vaikutusten arviointia olisi syytä jatkaa.